fwiw i met with gary.
their current net margin is around 7%, he advised that this new 1M ton capacity will likely have higher net margins than that.
also, the price of that stuff right now is around $470-$490/ton
also, the warrants out there that expire in june might not be exercised even though they are in the money, and the company may get better terms.
just imagine all that free cash flow going into another expansion?
also, the current market is 40M tons plus and this is just 1M, not to mention that this is a growth market.
this still is cheap. maybe really cheap.. maybe cheaper than i thought it was. who knows. i reserve the right to be wrong.
start crunching napkin math. if you've got $10M and you're interested in putting something together quick, i've got a couple ideas on this one... just shoot me an email, globalspeculation at gmail.com
i'll be cruising the western caribbean here this next week, and then i'll be following up on this.
