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TSP--17 Aug 05
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim. Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $92.69. Move all proceeds to G Fund. 16 Aug close = 93.72. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 123.48. 16 Aug close = 122.21. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund Sell all shares if EFA is < $55.17. Move all proceeds to G Fund. 16 Aug close = 55.89. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 532.98. 16 Aug close = 524.82. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 50% of funds.
Remember: Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145. The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
W@G2 QQQQ 08/17/05 for a 08/19/05 close~
39.00 BULLarkey
38.50 frenchee
Nice day for us that were short!
TSP--16 Aug 05
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund. Sell all shares if TLT is < $91.73. Move all proceeds to G Fund. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund. Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 124.74. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund. Sell all shares if EFA is < $55.58. Move all proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
S Fund. Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 533. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund. Current allocation is 50% of funds.
Remember: Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1150. The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
Yes.
My current shake out point is 40.51
39.76-40.14
Gizmo,
Thanks for posting the Ord update...
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Bought into the F Fund last Friday with a 25% allocation.
I Fund continues to outperform.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $91.75. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund No buy signal possible today. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund Sell all shares if EFA is < $55.85. Move all proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
S Fund No buy signal possible today. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 50% of funds.
Remember: Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1150. The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
OFC,
Thanks for sharing. My main investments are in ETFs with a high concentration in QQQQ. Good info in the article.
My near-term target for QQQQ is 38.64--the prior swing high. A decisive close under this support level will force big money to liquidate.
Most short and intermediate term indicators are moving downward and seasonally next week has been weak. For example, seasonally the week prior to the 3rd Friday in August during the 1st year of the presidential cycle has not been kind to the market.
The only reason I'm don't give QQQQ a long-term rating of sell is it remains above its 200-day SMA.
kedew,
You might find these boards helpful as well:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1804
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3736
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2767
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3358
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1744
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2593
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1948
http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=2
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=QQQ
Churak,
The Thrift Savings Plan is a stock-related board. It's the Federal Government's 401K equivalent to private sector retirement plans. Our choices are S&P 500 Index, EAFE Index, Wilshire 4500 Index, and long-term Government Bond Index. Request this board be moved to the free area.
Thanks thechamber
I though I created a free board called "Thrift Savings Plan" a few minutes ago in the free area. However, I attempted to post to it and got, "The board on which you tried to post is only accessible with a Premium Subscription!" Did I mess up or is this some type of software bug?
Thanks Manti
Thanks. I'm finally convinced I need a core portfolic of energy and natural resourse stocks. You list will provide a good list to investigate. Appreciate your help.
Looks like shorts on the Nasdaq will dominate for a while...
FA wins again--congrats!
Bliss,
What are your favorite energy and natural resource securities for a buy now? Thanks in advance.
After you click the below link, select an audio format to hear a very informative interview with Jim Puplava. It really isn't a technical overview of the financial markets as the link states. Here's what the interview is about. The interview's first half makes the case of a sustained energy bull market which most people are in denial about. You will learn investing implications for this second phase of the energy and mining boom. Another segment of the interview describes the extreme geo-political views of the terrorists and their current plans. Something very big is coming. Lastly, the interview discusses the investing implications relative to commodities. In a nutshell, this interviewed helps us understand what's coming and take appropriate action.
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Barbera.html
OT: After you click the below link, select an audio format to hear a very informative interview with Jim Puplava. It really isn't a technical overview of the financial markets as the link states. Here's what the interview is about. The interview's first half makes the case of a sustained energy bull market which most people are in denial about. You will learn investing implications for this second phase of the energy and mining boom. Another segment of the interview describes the extreme geo-political views of the terrorists and their current plans. Something very big is coming. Lastly, the interview discusses the investing implications relative to commodities. In a nutshell, this interviewed helps us understand what's coming and take appropriate action.
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Barbera.html
BEING STREET SMART
By Sy Harding
CONDITIONS ARE ALWAYS GREAT AT MARKET TOPS! August 12, 2005.
Write it down. Engrave it in stone, or at least into the wall. 'Surrounding conditions always look great at market tops!'
My mail has been particularly heavy in recent weeks, mostly along the lines of "How can you possibly be bearish on the stock market and expecting a sharp decline to a low in October? Is your head in the sand? Don't you see how strong the economy is, how strong corporate earnings are? Don't you realize how tame inflation is, how confidently consumers are spending?"
Sure I do. I hear it every day from Wall Street.
The problem is that not much of the current bullish case has anything at all to do with what is actually bullish (or bearish) for the stock market at its tops and bottoms.
I devoted half of my 1999 book Riding the Bear - How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market, to pointing out that if investors are to break the historical pattern of being excited and buying heavily at market tops, and depressed and selling out at market lows, they need to at least learn the most basic attribute of the market; that conditions at market tops always look great, and at market bottoms always look horrible.
After the economy and stock market have been in a serious decline for awhile, obviously conditions become increasingly dismal, with the economy slowing, corporate earnings in decline, and consumers more and more pessimistic. By the time the market reaches its ultimate low, and is ready to begin its next big rally or bull market, those conditions are at an extreme of bleakness. Think recession, woeful corporate earnings, dismal forecasts by analysts and corporate managements, low consumer confidence and spending, demoralized investors. Those will always be the conditions at stock market lows.
However, after that low is in, the economy and the stock market begin to rise again, often prodded along by a friendly Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and increased federal spending to get the economy stimulated again. The early stage at the bottom is also the denial stage for public investors. No way could a new bull market begin with such dismal surrounding conditions. Those who are buying, primarily insiders and institutions, are wrong. The market will soon reverse to the downside again, and hit even lower lows.
But as the economy and stock market continue to rise, more investors begin to lose some of their fear and dip their toes in, and the rally and new bull market continue. It is during this period that news of stronger economic conditions and rising corporate earnings are meaningful. Stocks are still undervalued. Investors are still too pessimistic. Technically, the market still has a long way to go before it will become overbought.
But eventually, the bull market runs its course. (The average bull market lasts about three years, the unusual bull markets of the 1920s and 1990s being the exceptions). Stocks become too highly priced. The economy has been strong long enough to create extreme conditions, perhaps an unreasonable bubble in investment prices, excessive risk-taking and speculation, high debt levels, high energy costs. Perhaps conditions have even become so strong that the Federal Reserve is concerned, and has begun to raise interest rates to cool things off.
At that point in the cycle, continuing strength in economic numbers and corporate earnings are meaningless. They are just part of the great surrounding conditions at market tops. Don't try to tell me why this time is different. I've heard it all before, in 1987, in 1989, in 2000. The history is clear.
The fact is that the stock market always tops out before the surrounding conditions turn sour. The most recent example was the way the Dow topped out in January of 2000, but the economy and corporate earnings remained so strong that the Federal Reserve was still raising interest rates four months later in May of 2000, in its efforts to get the economy cooled down.
Yet, once extreme conditions that indicate a top are in place, be they bubbles in an investment area, high consumer debt, insider selling, extremes of investor bullishness, overbought stock prices, unfavorable seasonality, or whatever, it still takes a catalyst to actually top the market out.
The two most common historically, have been rising interest rates, and rising energy costs.
Rising interest rates have topped out more markets than any other single factor. Why? Because rising interest rates are a sure sign of an economy that has gone so far it has created excesses that have even the Federal Reserve concerned and raising rates in an effort to get things cooled off. (The Fed has now raised rates ten times since June of last year, and interestingly enough, strong earnings and economic numbers or not, the market has gone nowhere since. It has been in a very narrow trading range, in which, even with the Dow again near the top of the range, it is still only 1% higher than its level of June, 2004). In spite of all the euphoria among public investors that shows up in the high investor sentiment numbers and level of margin debt, someone has already been selling heavily enough to offset their buying.
The second historical market-topping catalyst has been high energy costs. There has never been a time when sharply rising oil prices did not eventually top out the economy, corporate earnings, and the stock market. Don't tell me the bull's story that obviously the market doesn't mind high oil prices this time, since it hasn't topped out - yet. Or has it?
But above all, don't tell me the market won't top out because the economy and earnings remain strong. That is not how the market works. It tops out before the economy, before earnings, and while conditions have consumers confident and investors optimistic that this time will be different.
W@G1 QQQQ 08/15/05 for a 08/17/05 close~
38.88 Wonderboy
38.77 FinancialAdvisor
38.64 frenchee
U.S. Bond Market: Looking for Consolidation
10:16:00, August 11, 2005
The 10-year Treasury yield has increased by about 50 basis points since June and is nearing a key technical level.
The 10-year Treasury yield has traced out a series of descending tops since 2002, and is again approaching the trend line near 4½%. The previous three times the yield bounced off the trend line, our momentum indicator suggested that the note was oversold, while bullish trading sentiment (a contrary indicator) had fallen to a neutral level (except for earlier this year when sentiment did not reach neutral). Our momentum indicator is again approaching oversold territory and bullish sentiment is unwinding. This suggests that the bond market may have to consolidate before any breakout above 4½% is achieved. We cannot rule out an eventual breakout, but in the absence of an upturn in inflation, further upside potential for long-term Treasury yields is limited.
Dr. Worm,
Covered the TLT short this a.m. Don't feel comfortable going long until the mid Jun lows are taken out to the high side.
DrWorm,
Thanks for the update.
My plan is to cover the short if TLT closes today greater than 92.69.
Thanks for the feedback Ray.
Thanks for the Newman alert Bob.
Ray,
Think it can get past .79 in the short term?
DrWorm,
Agree. A close today above 349.13 and decisive volume above 180.5M would turn this chart positive again.
Thanks Ray...
Not yet. I'd wait until the Parabolic SAR reverses on the daily charts before I'd consider a short of GLD.
My near term targets are prior support, 21-day SMA, or lower Bollinger Band on daily charts.
Dr Worm,
TLT showing signs of turning. Plan to close my short when price touches the 5-day SMA and then move to a long if it closes greater than its 21-day SMA. Otherwise, still keeping the short on.
Heavy stuff Gizmo...
What's your short-term forecast for QQQQ?
One of my more reliable indicators has justed flashed a sell signal after being long since mid-May. Check it out at http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7281723
$BPCOMPQ rolled over today and produced a sell signal. As a result, added some more to my QQQQ short position. Set stop at 41. I'm expecting an sharp correction starting late this week or early next week.
W@G2 QQQQ 08/10/05 for a 08/12/05 close
39.07 FinancialAdvisor
38.64 frenchee
Count me in...
Like these tradings ideas Dr Worm...
I like to reference what the large, commercial, and small specs are doing relative to the Nasdaq futures. I don't make trading decisions based solely on this info but it does provide useful background information.