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TSP--29 Aug 05
Commentary:
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $93.90 and move all proceeds to G Fund. 26 Aug close = 94.47. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 122.88. 26 Aug close = 120.76. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund No recommendations on I Fund for today. 26 Aug close = 55.23. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 529.16. 26 Aug close = 520.56. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 75% of funds.
Remember:
Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action as indicated.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
W@G1 QQQQ 08/29/05 for a 08/31/05 close~
38.00 frenchee
See how I picked 38 at http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7517265
QQQQ Analysis for 26 Aug 05
On the daily charts, QQQQ is getting oversold and due for a bounce. The bounce will be a good point to sell if you haven't already or add to an established short position. I'm expecting the bounce to be between 38.64 and QQQQ's 21-day SMA on a closing basis. If the 21-day SMA is taken out on decisive volume, the nice short run is over and I'll lock in my profits.
Nevertheless, I don't think I'll get stopped out because of what the intermediate-term trend is suggesting. On the weekly chart below, note the following points, both + and - which suggests the weight of the evidence is to the downside:
1) Parabolic SAR is now on a sell. -
2) RSI went on a sell four weeks ago and isn't close to being oversold. -
3) 38.2% Fib retracement is around 38. A weekly close at this level would take out May's swing high. - If the 38.2% Fib level doesn't hold, I'm looking for the 21-week SMA or 50% Fib level to be the next potential support level.
4) Fast MACD when on a sell today. - Slow MACD not yet confirming but is starting to roll over.
5) MFI, Chaikin Oscillator, and Slow Stochastics are all on sell. - - - MFI and Slow Sto,and RSI suggesting this downd trend just getting up a head of steam.
6) We are at trend line support from the low drawn from 34.32. +
7) Still in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. + If we close in the lower half of the Bollinger Band, the implied target is the lower Bollinger Band...
8) Volume not convincing with four week down trend. +
U.S. Stock Market Update by Bob Colby
Friday, August 26, 2005,
at 4:22 p.m. EST
Breakdown Confirmed
On Friday, the S&P 500 fell below its 1 x 4 weekly Gann Angle rising from its low of 1,146.18, set on 5/13/05. This is important because a rising channel following this Angle has defined the entire rally since April, 2005. Breaking this channel implies that the rally may be over.
The weak stock-price trend was broad-based, with a Bearish ratio of Advances to Declines: 1007 to 2238 on the NYSE, and 985 to 2036 on the NASDAQ.
Transports, Banks, Financials, and Small Caps suffered the worst declines.
Short-term momentum is clearly Bearish, and larger cycles are due to turn down, if they haven’t already.
Most investors have been extremely Bullish in recent months, which is Bearish according to the Art of Contrary Opinion. A long overdue shakeout may be at hand.
The S&P 500 has violated the following support levels in recent weeks:
1,222.67, low of 8/8/2005
1,221.13, low of 7/18/2005
1,219.59, high of 6/22/2005
1,206.11, high of 7/5/2005
To discover the next Resistance, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at the following levels for the S&P 500:
Potential Resistance
1,228.96 high of 8/22/2005
1,242.69 high of 8/10/2005
1,245.86 high of 8/3/2005
1253.44, 61.8% Retracement of the 2000-2002 Bear
1270, converging Gann Angles
To discover the next Support, traders probably will be watching how the market acts at its price pivot points for the S&P 500 since the April low:
Potential Support
1,183.55, low of 7/7/2005
1,175 to 1,179 zone, early May resistance
1,173.80, low of 5/18/2005
1,159.86, low of 5/17/2005
1,153.64, low of 5/16/2005
1,146.18, low of 5/13/05
1,139.14, low of 4/29/05
1,136.37, low of 4/20/05
Thanks BULLarkey
It's password protected BULLarkey--sorry
Murphy's Forecast Not Rosy
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7510638
John Muphy Update 25 Aug
Thu, 25 Aug 2005 3:5 PM ET
LONGER TERM INDICATORS SHOW THAT THE BULL MARKET MAY BE NEARING COMPLETION -- SEASONAL TRENDS HAVE TURNED NEGATIVE -- WHY THE FOUR-YEAR CYCLE HAS ME WORRIED
SHORT-TERM SLIPPAGE... Wednesday's price action pushed the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average on a closing basis for the first time since mid-May and confirmed recent signs of weakening in its short-term trend. The SPY also closed back below its March peak at 122. The fact that yesterday's selloff occurred on heavy volume is another negative factor. Those earlier signs of weakness were seen in the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator trading under the zero line and negative MACD lines. The market is attempting to bounce back today from a short-term oversold condition. But given the fact that the cyclical bull market that started nearly three years ago is very old by historical standards, with the market having entered a dangerous seasonal period, and with crude oil reaching new records, this is an opportune time to take a longer-range view of the market.
MAJOR TREND STILL UP, BUT LOSING MOMENTUM... The most important line on the S&P 500 weekly bars in Chart 2 is the red line. It's the 80-week moving average. Normally, I'd use a 40-week average which is used by most chartists as the main gauge of the market's major trend. However, the 40-week has given some false signals over the years. I found that by doubling it to 80 I get much more reliable trend signals. The S&P rose above the 80-week line in the spring of 2003 and remains above it. The spring selloffs in 2004 and 2005 stayed above that long-term support line. As long as the S&P stays over that line, the major trend will remain up. That's an important point. The major trend is still up. All of the indicators that I'm going to focus on in this report are anticipatory in nature. In other words, they measure the direction of market momentum. Historically, these indicators give early warnings that a major trend is gaining or losing momentum. Virtually all of those weekly indicators are giving the same market message -- namely, that the cyclical bull market is showing signs of tiring.
RSI IS WEAKENING ... The top line in Chart 2 is the 9-week RSI line. The two most important numbers on the RSI are 30 and 70. Readings under 30 measure an oversold market; over 70 means an overbought market. The two readings under 30 in 2002 gave an early warning that the market was bottoming. The RSI reached two overbought readings at the start of 2004 and end of 2004. But there's more to the RSI than just the numbers. There's the direction of the peaks and troughs in the RSI that lead to positive or negative divergences. Starting with the lowest low in the summer of 2002, each successive trough in the RSI in late 2002 and the spring of 2003 was higher than the one before. That set up a positive divergence with the price action and gave an early warning that the market was bottoming. Since the start of 2004, we've seen just the opposite. The RSI reached its highest level in early 2004. The two other RSI peaks since then (late 2004 and the summer of 2005) have been successively lower. That pattern of lower peaks has set up a negative divergence and suggests a market that's losing upside momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at the bottom of the chart shows a slightly different picture. But the message is the same. Readings under -100 are oversold while readings above +100 are overbought. The spring 2003 low in the CCI (green arrow) was higher than the one formed in the summer of 2002. That signaled higher prices. The last move over 100 (this summer) is lower than the one in late 2004. That's potentially bearish. Notice also that the CCI line has slipped back under 100. That last two times it did that the market entered intermediate corrections (see circles).
WEEKLY MACD LINES ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ... Chart 3 applies one of my favorite market indicators -- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)-- to the weekly S&P 500. The two MACD lines are a combination of exponentially smoothed moving averages. Buy and sell signals are given when the two lines cross. But, here again, there's more to them than that. The MACD lines also turn well ahead of the market and give us positive and negative divergences. In other words, the first buy or sell signal is often just a warning that the market is turning. It's usually the second or third signal that's the real thing. An initial buy signal was given in October 2002 (see green circles). A second buy was given in the spring of 2003. Notice that the second MACD buy was much higher than the first. That's positive divergence. Since the start of 2004, the MACD has given two sell signals -- one just as the 2004 correction was starting and the other near the start of 2005 as the market was weakening (red circles). At present, the MACD lines are weakening again. No actual sell signal has yet taken place, but it's getting close (red arrow). Notice also that the last two MACD peaks have been successively lower (see falling trendline). That's been happening as prices have hit new recovery highs during 2005. That's negative divergence. That's also why I would take any sell signal on the weekly MACD at this point in time as a very negative development.
WEEKLY MACD IS NEAR SELL SIGNAL ... Chart 4 gives a closer look at the weekly MACD negative divergence since the start of 2004, and shows just how close it is to an important sell signal. The last two moves to new highs by the S&P were accompanied by lower MACD readings (see red arrows). I've put questions marks on the last peak because no actual sell signal has yet been given. But it wouldn't take much to turn the weekly MACD lines negative. The green bars below the chart show the MACD histogram. Those bars plot the difference between the two MACD lines and show us whether the two lines are converging or diverging. Right now they're converging. That's an early warning of an possible impending sell signal which occurs when the histogram bars fall below zero. It hasn't happened yet. But it's getting very close. And the fact that September is historically the worst month of the year isn't very encouraging. [It also looks to me like the August 2004 to the August 2005 rally has taken place in five waves, but I'll leave that discussion for another time].
THE FOUR-YEAR CYCLE CARRIES A WARNING... While the monthly seasonal pattern between now and October is negative, there's a longer-range cycle pattern that has me even more concerned. I've written before about the four-year presidential cycle and the tendency of the market to form major bottoms every four years. The monthly bars in Chart 5 show how well that four-year cycle has worked. The green arrows show important bottoms in 2002, 1998, 1994, 1990, 1987, and 1982. The only year that didn't follow the four-year pattern was 1987. That bottom came a year late. The next major bottom is due in the autumn of 2006 (most bottoms have occurred during October). Unfortunately, the early part of the fourth year is usually down. The market may present a great buying opportunity in October 2006. It's the period between now and then that I'm worried about. One final thought. The October 2002 four-year bottom was lower than the 1998 bottom. So far, the 2005 top is lower than the 2000 top. If the market fails to reach its 2000 high, that will be the first time that the long-term secular trend of the market has shown "lower lows" and "lower highs" since the 1970s. Those analysts who suggest that the current situation is similar to the mid-cycle pauses that occurred in the mid-1990s or the mid-1980s are missing one crucial point. The market was in a secular bull market during those two decades. That's no longer the case.
SUMMING THINGS UP ... We have a nearly three-year cyclical bull market that's very old. Longer-term momentum indicators are weakening and are dangerously close to important sell signals. The market may have completed a five-wave advance. Monthly seasonal patterns have turned negative. The four-year cycle is entering its most dangerous phase between now and the second half of next year. Oil prices are hitting record highs. Retailers are weakening. And the housing industry may be peaking. Sounds to me like a good time to turn more defensive. No major sell signals have been given yet. But, all things considered, I'd be inclined to use any short-term August bounces to prepare for what could be a tough autumn.
Dr Worm,
TLT train starting to get overbought as momentum indicators are in a presignal sell area. My sell stop has been been tightened accordingly. See http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7507072
TSP--26 Aug 05
Commentary:
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $94.05 and move all proceeds to G Fund. 25 Aug close = 94.50. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 122.14. 25 Aug close = 121.59. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund No recommendations on I Fund for today. 25 Aug close = 55.41. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 529.22. 25 Aug close = 525.09. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 75% of funds.
Remember:
Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action as indicated.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
TSP--25 Aug 05
Commentary:
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $93.62 and move all proceeds to G Fund. 24 Aug close = 94.20. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 122.13. 24 Aug close = 121.15. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund No recommendations on I Fund for today. 24 Aug close = 55.20. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 530.06. 24 Aug close = 524.11. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 75% of funds.
Remember:
Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action as indicated.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
thanks Ray
thanks Bliss
BULLarkey,
I got short at 16.28. Wanted a second opinion from you guys. Looking to close short around 15.30 as of now.
Dr Worm,
Thanks
PBW
Buy, Hold, or Sell from 16.28?
Bliss,
PBW buy, hold, or sell?
Thanks!
Thanks for the settings...
TSP--24 Aug 05
Commentary:
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $92.83 and move all proceeds to G Fund. 23 Aug close = 94.11. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 123.27. 23 Aug close = 122.24. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund No recommendations on I Fund for today. 23 Aug close = 55.79. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 530.95. 23 Aug close = 524.63. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 75% of funds.
Remember:
Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action as indicated.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
W@G2 QQQQ 08/24/05 for a 08/26/05 close~
38.53 frenchee
TSP--23 Aug 05
Commentary:
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $92.77 and move all proceeds to G Fund. 22 Aug close = 93.68. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 123.31. 22 Aug close = 122.47. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund No recommendations on I Fund for today. 22 Aug close = 56.03 Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 531.25. 22 Aug close = 525.21. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 75% of funds.
Remember:
Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action as indicated.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
W@G2 QQQQ 08/22/05 for a 08/24/05 close~
38.49 frenchee
TSP--22 Aug 05
Commentary:
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Allocate 50% to F Fund if TLT is between 93.49 and 92.75. Sell all shares if TLT is < $92.74 and move all proceeds to G Fund. 19 Aug close = 93.78. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 123.37. 19 Aug close = 122.47. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund No recommendations on I Fund for today. 19 Aug close = 55.42 Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 531.69. 19 Aug close = 523.47. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 75% of funds.
Remember:
Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action as indicated.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
thanks Gizmo
Thanks Eddy
excellent analysis...
QQQQ Forecast--18 Aug 05
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7413832
Namiar,
Relative to your question,"Wonder when this current slump will bottom?", my WAG is somewhere around 38 on the QQQQs. If I'm wrong, I don't expect the current slump to get past QQQQ's 21-day SMA as this moving average should function as resistance. On the other hand if 38 doesn't hold, I expect the current down trend to last two to three more months because of seasonality factors and the intermediate-term trend changing.
Note on the charts below how good a job the $BPCOMPQ chart has done confirming the intermediate-term trend had changed...
Bottom line--I'm adding to my shorts on strenght so long as QQQQ doesn't close past its 21-day SMA.
Bob Colby Update for 18 Aug
Odds Of Reversal
Over the past 105 years, stock prices have tended to trend most of the time. But since the S&P 500 made its price low of 768.63 on 10/10/2002, the market has exhibited an unusually persistent choppy behavior pattern, where the trend of today has been unlikely to carry over into tomorrow.
Specifically, over the past 719 trading days (1042 calendar days) from 10/10/2002 through 8/17/2005, the S&P 500 has followed the previous day’s trend only 323 times and has reversed that trend 396 times.
This means that if a trader would have attempted to follow the trend on a day-to-day basis, he would have had a 44.92% chance of making a winning trade and a 55.08% chance of making a losing trade.
If one had attempted to flip positions (long to short, or short to long) on every one of the 396 reversals in order to follow the trend change, he would have made a profit only 118 times, and he would have lost 278 times.
This means that if a trader would have attempted to follow all the daily trend changes, he had only a 29.80% chance of making a winning trade and a 70.20% chance of making a losing trade. These are poor odds.
Furthermore, if one could actually trade the S&P 500 index, one would have lost 48.44% of his capital by playing for follow through of today’s trend. Conversely, trading against today’s trend would have produced a significant paper profit of 83.79%, before trading costs and taxes.
TSP--19 Aug 05
Commentary:
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim.
Sold all shares of I Fund today and moved proceeds to G Fund.
Possibly no update for 22 Aug since I'm having a rotator cuff operation on 19 Aug.
Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Allocate 50% to F Fund if TLT is between 93.40 and 92.69. Sell all shares if TLT is < $92.68 and move all proceeds to G Fund. 18 Aug close = 93.79. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 123.38. 18 Aug close = 122.19. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund No recommendations on I Fund for today. 18 Aug close = 55.15. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 532.01. 18 Aug close = 522.41. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 75% of funds.
Remember:
Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145.
Compare the value of the ETF or index against the recommended action limit(s) and take action as indicated.
The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=
thanks!
Hi Dimension,
Hadn't seen your posts in a long time...
OT. What's your short-term forecast for QQQQ?
Bob Colby's Update...
Odds Favor Reversal
On Wednesday, stocks finished mixed. Advances/Declines were slightly Bearish at 1487 to 1750 on the NYSE. But most indexes recovered small fractions of Tuesday’s steep losses. The S&P 500 rose 0.90 points or 0.07%. Some other indexes fared only slightly better, with the DJIA up 0.35% and the NASDAQ up 0.38%. Small caps and mid caps underperformed, while technology stocks outperformed.
NYSE Volume rose slightly to 1,859,157,00 shares, compared to 1,820,408,000 shares for the previous trading session. Volume of Declining Stocks was greater than the Volume of Advancing Stocks. Recent volume patterns suggest that the demand/supply balance for stocks has tilted to the Bearish side.
Over the past 105 years, stock prices have tended to trend most of the time. But since the S&P 500 made its price low of 768.63 on 10/10/2002, the market has exhibited an unusually persistent choppy behavior pattern, where the trend of today has been unlikely to carry over into tomorrow.
Specifically, over the past 395 trading days since 10/10/2002, the S&P 500 has followed the previous day’s trend only 118 times and has reversed that trend 277 times.
This means that if a trader would have attempted to follow the trend on a day-to-day basis, he had only a 29.87% chance of making a winning trade and a 70.13% chance of making a losing trade. These are poor odds.
Furthermore, if one could actually trade the S&P 500 index, one would have lost a significant proportion of capital by playing for follow through of today’s trend. Conversely, trading against today’s trend would have produced a significant paper profit, before trading costs and taxes.
Given this actual observed data, one might argue that there may be more than a 70% chance of a market reversal to the downside on Thursday, other things being equal.
Correct. No tax consequences either. It's the Federal Government's 401K equivalent.
John Murphy's Update on QQQQ
NASDAQ 100 SHARES ARE OVERSOLD ... The daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 Shares (QQQQ) hasn't changed much either since Monday. The recent pullback is nearing a test of the early June peak at 38.64. That's the first line of chart support. Here again, downside volume (red bars) has been heavier than upside volume (green bars). Today's price bounce came on lighter volume than yesterday's price drop. The two lines lines at the bottom of the price chart may carry some good short-term news. Bollinger band width is trying to turn up from oversold territory near 1. The bottom line (%B) plots the QQQQ relative to its Bollinger bands (which are the upper and lower horizontal lines). The %B shows that the QQQQ is bouncing off its lower band. That's not enough by itself to launch a new upleg. But it may be enough to keep the Nasdaq, and the rest of the market, in an August trading range. As I also suggested on Monday, this week's selling of energy shares (and falling crude oil) may provide some short-term stability during the dangerous month of August.
OT. If you know what the Thrift Savings Plan is, then you might profit from visiting this board http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=4258
OT. If you know what the Thrift Savings Plan is, then you might profit from visiting this board http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=4258
If you know what the Thrift Savings Plan is, then you might profit from visiting this board http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=4258
TSP--18 Aug 05
My portfolio's objective is maximum capital appreciation with capital preservation as a secondary aim. Current action limits and allocation percentages:
F Fund Sell all shares if TLT is < $92.69. Move all proceeds to G Fund. 17 Aug close = 93.10. Current allocation is 25% of funds.
C Fund Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY > 123.44. 17 Aug close = 122.20. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund Sell all shares if EFA is < $55.17. Move all proceeds to G Fund. 17 Aug close = 55.70. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
S Fund Allocate 25% to S Fund if DWCP or $EMW > 532.62. 17 Aug close = 524. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund Current allocation is 50% of funds.
Remember: Cut off time for asset transfers is 1200 Eastern so check the price of the proxy ETF or index around 1145. The TSP Web address for asset transfers and asset allocations is http://www.tsp.gov/account/index.html
Charts:
F Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=tlt&time=&freq=
C Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy&time=&freq=
I Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=efa&time=&freq=
S Fund 6-month Chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=dwcp&time=&freq=