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W@G2 QQQQ 10/05/05 for a 10/07/05 close~
38.43 frenchee
good deal...I'm now short QQQQ from 39.70...
Hope you get to feeling better real soon...
TTT--4 Oct 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Sell all shares of C Fund if SPY < $121.30, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares of I Fund if EFA is < $57.36, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Sell all shares of S Fund if $EMW or DWCP < $525.69, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is nil.
swing man,
Thanks for the heads up.
Don't know how "big" the retracement will be but RSI(6-day) is in a presignal sell area suggesting momentum is nearing rolling over. In addition, the doji is another sign the bears and bulls are at a stalemate.
I'll be ready...
My guess the twin support points from the Aug low and 200-day SMA will not hold. At best I see a consolidation because manufacturers recently reported the largest increase in fifteen years for material prices. Upside forces are building in the inflation pipeline at the wholesale level and I believe they will be passed on for the most part.
My TLT plan is to add to my short position on signs of strength when price > 5-day SMA and < 21-day SMA.
Week 5 DEN
If you have a basic membership to StockCharts.com, then this link will provide you the analysis template I use to forecast the QQQQ. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?symbol=QQQQ&period=DAILY&years=0&months=4&days=0&...
Plan to close my long and go short when the RSI(6-day)closes below 70.
OT: Motley Fool
High-Class Gas
Friday September 30, 2:35 pm ET
By Stephen D. Simpson, CFA
Everybody is talking about the price of crude oil and gasoline, and with good reason -- we all use gas to fuel our cars, and the price of crude has implications across the entire economy. But let's not forget natural gas, which is also used nationwide. Many people even heat their homes with it.
If you look back a bit, you'll see an interesting trend. Yes, the price of oil has gone up by about one-third in the past year and has more than doubled from its price two years ago. But during those same periods, natural gas prices have more than doubled and nearly tripled, respectively. The reasons are many and varied and somewhat beyond the scope of this Take. But whatever the cause, a cold winter in the U.S. could spell even higher natural-gas prices.
Who, then, stands to benefit? Not surprisingly, major oil companies like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM - News) and BP (NYSE: BP - News) are both major players in natural gas. There's also a second tier of independent companies, including Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK - News), Apache (NYSE: APA - News), Devon Energy, and Anadarko (NYSE: APC - News), as well as small up-and-comers like Ultra Petroleum (AMEX: UPL - News) or Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX - News), that could reap rewards.
I think everybody who follows my work knows the gig on the big boys -- they're good cash flow generators and energy bellwethers, but growth is constrained by low (or negative) production trends. In my mind, then, that leaves the smaller fish as the more interesting plays for growth-focused investors.
Looking simply at valuation in terms of enterprise value-to-barrels of oil equivalent in proven reserves, Anadarko and Chesapeake seem somewhat bargain-priced at $10.80 and $12.74 respectively. Ultra Petroleum and Newfield both look expensive at $34.35 and $23.87, but both companies (and particularly Ultra Petroleum) are increasing production and reserves at a significantly above-average rate. And then you have Apache, which has an OK valuation at $14.29 per barrel, and an OK return on assets, but a sound management team with a very good history.
Traditional valuation models are really tricky to use right now. Nobody has any good idea what the price of natural gas will be in a year or two, and that makes earnings projections tough. Nevertheless, if you consider traditional methods, Apache, Anadarko, and Newfield all look as though they could still be good buys. Then again, you have Ultra possibly getting clearance to significantly increase production, and you have insiders at Chesapeake buying shares. It's a muddy picture indeed, but as long as you think natural gas prices will stay high, these might be some good companies to investigate.
OT: Looking For Tiny Treasures
By GREG NEWTON
FROM FAMINE TO FEAST: Suddenly, investors in U.S. exchange-traded funds have three micro-cap ETFs to choose from -- versus none just a few months ago.
But those with a taste for the most speculative end of the stock market need to understand the very distinct differences between these products, which are based on newly compiled indexes that have little in common with one another besides the "micro-cap" in their names.
The very nature of the micro-cap segment means that the ETFs will be more volatile, and have greater portfolio turnover, than other ETFs. The sector's liquidity constraints will make it more difficult for managers to track their benchmarks accurately. And it's likely that, given the combination of liquidity issues and lack of appropriate hedging vehicles available to market-makers, retail investors will find it difficult, if not impossible, to short the ETFs.
The reasons for the rush to market are clear. The micro-cap fund sector to date has been poorly served, with just a handful of mutual funds; screening tools on Morningstar's Website, for example, do not offer 'micro-cap' as a selection option.
And, then, of course, there's performance: "The most sizzling segment of the market" is how leading index-provider Russell breathlessly described the 7.1% gain in its new micro-cap index in July, just a month after its introduction.
Over the longer term, Russell's MicroCap Index underperformed both the broad market and small-caps in the 12 months ended August 31, but its 9.84% annualized
gain over five years handily outpaces the small-cap Russell 2000's 5.75% annualized gain, and the broader-market Russell 3000's annualized loss of 1.81%.
Meanwhile, the other newly announced micro-cap indexes, from Dow Jones (the publisher of Barron's) and Zacks, have outperformed Russell's model over most timeframes.
The first micro-cap ETF to trade in the United States was Barclays Global Investors iShares Russell MicroCap Index Fund (ticker: IWC), listed on the New York Stock Exchange on August 16.
It was quickly followed by the PowerShares Zacks MicroCap Portfolio (PZI), which began trading on the American Stock Exchange on Aug. 18.
And the Dow Jones Select MicroCap Fund (FDM), the first ETF managed by suburban Chicago-based First Trust Advisors, began trading on the Amex Friday.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE FACING THE PROSPECTIVE investor is tracking down just what each of the competing indexes are, in fact, tracking -- a task not helped by the inconsistent manner in which information about the funds is presented, and the amount of information available, on the providers' Websites.
The Russell MicroCap index, which was announced May 26, covering 2000 stocks, effectively ranked from 2001 to 4000 by market-cap size, in the Russell U.S. market universe. Its U.S. focus does, however, mean that it avoids both non-U.S. incorporated companies and foreign stocks, including American depositary receipts, and certain corporate structures, including limited partnerships and royalty trusts.
The Dow Jones index is based on a subset of the broad Dow Jones-Wilshire MicroCap index, effectively covering the stocks ranked from 2501-5000 in the broad Dow Jones-Wilshire 5000 index. Zacks selects from the smallest 2500 stocks in its own database.
Beyond that, the Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index subjects its list to a series of screens intended to identify stocks "that are comparatively liquid and have strong fundamentals relative to the micro-cap segment as a whole." The index currently has 280 stocks.
And while both the Russell and Dow Jones indexes essentially are capitalization-weighted, Zacks uses a modified equal-weighting on its constituents, which are "strategically" selected by a proprietary model that focuses on value, momentum and liquidity, with the aim of outperforming passive micro-cap strategies. Zacks currently has around 340 stocks in its index; its selection process is intended to yield "300 to 500" stocks.
The indexes are tightly correlated with each other, but their different design parameters produce significant performance fluctuations (see table, Drilling Down) over most time frames.
Tables: Drilling Down
Varying Sector Allocations
Different Top HoldingsLori Richards, senior product manager for the Russell indexes, said that its micro-cap ETF product is designed to help investors accurately measure a specific market segment. By contrast, both of its competitors are picking relatively few stocks, in the hope they will outperform. And, in not-so-veiled criticism of the methodology used to assemble the Dow Jones and Zacks indexes, Richards points out that past performance records are "like picking the right lottery numbers after they are known to the world.
"Investors need to determine if they want passive vehicles reflecting the broadly diversified market or if they want to bear active risk and hire professional active managers, or actively managed indexes," she affirms.
The impact of the design variation is perhaps most evident in the sector allocations (see table, Varying Sector Allocations). Financials are the only sector to make the top three allocation of all three indexes, while health-care allocations, for example, range from 8.4% to 17.5%. Top 10 index holdings (see table, Different Top Holdings ) tell a similar story, with no company making it onto more than one of the Top 10 holdings lists.
By contrast, five mega-cap companies -- ExxonMobil, Intel, IBM, Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft -- appear in the Top 10 holdings of two of the three major U.S. market indexes.
The argument for micro-cap index investing is essentially based on the asset-allocation benefits of the sector's low correlation with large-cap stocks. A Zacks white paper says that micro-caps have a 60% correlation with the Dow Jones Wilshire large-cap index over the last 15 years. "Because of this, the addition of micro-cap stocks to a diversified portfolio of equities should improve risk-adjusted performance," says a Zacks white paper.
But getting at those benefits -- ac- cording to Zacks, a 10% allocation over the last 10 years would have produced another 0.81 percentage points of average annual return, while very slightly reducing volatility -- has been tough until now.
Investors have had to choose from a handful of conventional mutual funds, or venture into waters where volatility, liquidity issues and the limited (and sometimes even-more-dubious than usual) analyst coverage make individual stock-picking more dangerous.
DAVID COHEN, WHO AS ZACKS' managing director for index strategies was responsible for developing its micro-cap index, said that the overwhelming evidence is that long-term micro-cap returns come from "uninspired, relatively cheap stocks that become consistent earners," rather than the headline-grabbing high-fliers that vault into more respectable capitalizations.
The sector's liquidity issues will be among the biggest challenges facing the managers as they attempt to accurately track their benchmarks. That factor helps explain why a relatively small number of stocks have been selected for the Dow Jones and Zacks indexes that were designed to fit the ETF concept.
By contrast, iShares, whose "customized subset" of the Russell index has more than four times the number of stocks than the other comparable ETFs, will be relying on its proven sampling and optimization processes to limit tracking errors.
Turnover will be another challenge, especially if the ETFs begin accumulating significant assets and -- as has happened with other ETFs -- fast-moving hedge funds begin to dominate trading. As noted by Barron's August 22 Up and Down Wall Street column, it may become a question of whether stocks are driving the ETFs, or the ETFs end up driving the stocks.
"Whatever the recipe, it will be interesting to see if the momentum players who have piled into the small-cap ETFs barrel into the micro-cap numbers. And what will the effect be if they all try to make for the exits at the same time?" said Randall Forsyth in that column.
Zacks' Cohen is aggressively unapologetic about the firm's quarterly reconstitution schedule, compared with the annual schedule of its competitors. As well, his index dropped five stocks before its ETF had traded a full week -- and one of its largest holdings had already blown through the top of the initial capitalization range.
"We have every intention of having higher turnover. We're looking for performance, and we're going to be very aggressive about replacing relatively poor performers with better performers when we rebalance," he says.
The battle for market share between the iShares and PowerShares ETFs has yet to resolve itself. Yet somewhat surprisingly -- given the Goliath-like footprint of the Russell/iShares combination in indexes and ETFs, respectively, compared with the Zacks/PowerShares' barely Davidian presence -- the PowerShares ETF has dominated the early running, with assets of more than $85 million at the close of business on Sept. 28, compared with the $50 million in the iShares product.
PowerShares has also led the share-volume race since its launch, with an average daily volume of almost 160,000 shares, compared with fewer than 50,000 shares for the iShares product. However, that lead almost disappears when it is adjusted for share price: the PowerShares product closed at 14.81 on Wednesday, or less than a third of the iShares' 50.05. iShares' average volume would, however, have been under 40,000, were it not for a single day when it traded 328,700 shares, according to Yahoo! Finance statistics.
Despite that, the performance of the two products since their respective launch dates has been largely flat, with the iShares losing 0.4% and the PowerShares up 0.54%. And while PowerShares would doubtless claim that it has outperformed its competitor, with a record of just 29 trading days, it's rather too early to claim that its ETF will match the long-term record of the Zacks index against its Russell counterpart.
How the arrival of the First Trust/Dow Jones ETF will affect the competitive dynamic is uncertain, but last-to-market products rarely have an easy time making progress in a competitive market. As well, First Trust must overcome the disadvantage of being an unknown in the ETF world -- where PowerShares' success amid the iShares, State Streets and Vanguards is an almost classic example of the exception proving the rule.
The new micro-cap ETFs allow an investor to simply add an important market segment to an equity portfolio. But that investor needs to clearly understand that the ETFs are no mere clones -- and that they may, in real-time market hurly-burly, behave very differently.
OT: I Screen, You Screen
FEW TOOLS ARE AS EFFECTIVE at guiding your investing decisions as screeners. They're also ubiquitous on the Web -- but we have our favorites.
Microsoft's investing site (moneycentral.msn.com) still offers the mother of all stock screeners -- or three, actually, for both stocks and funds. They include a simple custom search and pre-designed screens like Dogs of the Dow and Contrarian Strategy. The barnburner, though, is the Deluxe Screener, which requires a download of the MSN Money Investment Toolbox and a .NET password. Microsoft claims a few hundred variables in its gargantuan screening tool, grouped into categories like investment return, trading and volume, growth rates, and current financials. Select one and then enter an operator (which indicates if the stock should have a value greater, lesser or equal to the one you entered). Refer to the field descriptions if the terms are unfamiliar.
After you get a results list, Microsoft's screener displays its prowess another way, by providing access to voluminous news -- an alert system looks for things like stock-split announcements -- data, charts, and other information for each entry. This one-two punch of exceptionally well-crafted screening and accompanying company profiles, in a free tool, have made MSN Money the one to beat for years.
Our second-favorite screener -- second in part because it doesn't come free -- is the SmartMoney site (www.smartmoney.com; $59 a year, $109 with real-time quotes). SmartMoney.com's screening tool uses a format similar to Microsoft's, offering an equation builder, prebuilt screens, and onscreen help. But it employs its own touches, like a variety of report options (thumbnail charts, histograms, etc.) and a spreadsheet view.
SmartMoney.com also employs screening technology for funds, and some other innovative features. The Market Map 1000, Risk Map 1000, and Fund Map 1000 are visual representations of individual stocks and funds, highlighting price movements and hot/cool spots. New screening technology built into each lets you zero in on securities of interest. (SmartMoney is published jointly by Hearst and Dow Jones, which publishes Barron's. Our editor also wears that hat at SmartMoney.)
Morningstar (www.morningstar.com) also offers a fairly conventional approach to stock screening, with a tip of the hat to its own research Morningstar rankings. The free, basic screener lets you select from among several variables, including style and market capitalization, performance, and valuation. Morningstar stock grades provide additional screening options, by criteria such as growth, financial health, and profitability.
A Morningstar Premium Membership ($13.95 a month, discounts for lengthier contracts) includes access to the site's premium screeners. We recommend a paid subscription for other features, notably Morningstar's mutual-fund data and analysis; but not for the premium screeners. The premium stock and fund screeners take your variables one at a time, and use a pop-up window for data entry. This eats up time. We very much like what these screeners do, just not how they do it.
Some screeners take slightly different approaches to their task.
Stockworm (www.stockworm.com) landed on the Web early with a level of visual sophistication it often takes sites years to achieve. A graphically pleasing interface is more than a pretty face: It makes navigation easier and the work experience more pleasant.
Stockworm matches its beauty with brains, with some variations on standard screening. Its tools have evolved in an interesting fashion through the years, and are more complex than they were initially. The fundamental screener, good especially for the uninitiated because of its simplicity, consists of a series of drop-down lists. Select a variable, like earnings growth, and you can choose from among high, average, and low. A custom option lets you hone ranges more precisely.
You can also choose from other screening preferences, like backtesting, exchanges and industries, and price limits. Results can be viewed as both expanded fundamentals and charts. Technical signal screens let you track down stocks issuing buy or sell signals using technical indicators. A third screener issues lists of stocks that are similar to those you indicate, matching fundamental or technical signals. These and other innovative tools, like stock multi-segment stock analysis, stock valuation, and automatic trading rules for portfolios, are available by subscription, for $7.95 to $29.95 a month; a $14.95 monthly subscription is required for screening. There's a two-week free trial; no credit card required.
INTRODUCED LAST MAY, InsiderScore (www.insiderscore.com) provides a pricey look at insider transactions ($2,000 per year for the first company user). But the site goes well beyond dry lists of buys and sells; it puts them in context using a proprietary ranking system that helps you weed out the significant actions. The site recently added a screener that's in beta testing, but we had no trouble with it. Several preset screens introduce you to the possibilities, like Selling on Weakness.
You can build your own screens using any combination of some common and unusual criteria, including the site's own transaction score, type of insider and number of shares, market cap and current stock price, and, perhaps most telling, stock percentage change within a user-specified time before and after the transaction. The latter numbers are displayed in results tables; links here take you to more-detailed transactions. This site has a lot of growing to do, and we wonder about the wisdom of such a high price for retail investors, but it's one of the five best debuts in the investment-research sector of the Web this year.
If your screening needs aren't overly complex or specialized, you may be able to do your screening free, at Yahoo! Finance (finance.yahoo.com). It offers both preset screens (strong forecasted growth, bargain growth, bottom fishing, etc.) and a custom screening tool. Two are actually available: a simple HTML version, and a Java version that rivals some of the best in sophistication.
Reuters (www.reuters.com), unfortunately, still uses the clunky custom screener it's had for a while. It's dirty high-tech: powerful and customizable, but slow and unwieldy. Built-in screens include stocks favored by analysts and bumps in the road. Both Yahoo! and Reuters carry the advantage of supporting news, data, and analysis.
Most screeners focus primarily on descriptive and fundamental data. Some exist, though, to help you sift through the performance of technical indicators. ClearStation (www.clearstation.com), discussed here Sept. 19, constantly screens for noteworthy technical events and posts lists of affected stocks. MarketScreen (www.marketscreen.com), unlike ClearStation, requires a paid subscription ($29.95 a month), but the unusual extra functionality is worth it for the resolute technical analyst.
The site's market overview displays a table of currently significant technical events, and shows you who's involved. You can build your own screens, choosing from fundamentals and specific technical breakouts. Another screen grabs backtested stocks performing best in relation to certain technical events. Supplemental news and data are available, as are e-mail alerts triggered by criteria set by the user.
TTT--3 Oct 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Sell all shares of C Fund if SPY < $121.27, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares of I Fund if EFA is < $57.30, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Sell all shares of S Fund if $EMW or DWCP < $525.51, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is nil.
W@G1 QQQQ 10/03/05 for a 10/05/05 close~
39.91 frenchee
Good view of QQQQ components thanks to AnderL
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7944198
AnderL
Thanks for this view of the index's components. Make it easy to spot a setup.
Thanks BlissBull
blackcloud,
Nice strong trend--thanks...
Hello swing man,
Got long today at 39.08. My initial stop is at 38.43. Next target appears to be 39.79.
DrWorm,
Got out of TLT long today and established a short position at 92.57. I'm expecting an initial down move toward 90.68--90.96 before support. Initial stop at 93.40 if I'm wrong.
TTT--30 Sep 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Sell all shares of F Fund and move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY is > $122.45. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares if EFA is < $57.21, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Allocate 25% to S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is > $530.69. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 25%.
BlissBull,
What are your favorite major natural gas stocks?
aire,
Does your model predict which one should have the greater relative strength?
Go EFA!
TTT--29 Sep 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Sell all shares if TLT is < $91.88, and move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY is > $122.35 and either F Fund or I Fund is sold. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares if EFA is < $57.04, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Allocate 25% to S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is > $530.35. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 25%.
thanks for the update swing man...
I'm still out waiting for meaningful direction to happen...
Money, the markets, and the facts
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B80EB2EFB%2DE8FF%2D4818%2DBCA1%2D5911B1D85BD2%7D&am...
Good find FA. Thanks for sharing...
W@G2 QQQQ 09/28/05 for a 09/30/05 close~
39.18 frenchee
39.11 bob3
39.00 quiet
38.50 rayrohn
38.15 tekprod
38.11 FinancialAdvisor
TTT--28 Sep 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Sell all shares if TLT is < $91.88, and move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY is > $122.33 and either F Fund or I Fund is sold. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares if EFA is < $56.92, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Allocate 25% to S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is > $530.31. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 25%.
TTT--27 Sep 04
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Sell all shares if TLT is < $91.88, and move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY is > $122.26 and either F Fund or I Fund is sold. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares if EFA is < $56.82, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Allocate 25% to S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is > $530.07. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 25%.
Week 4: CIN
TTT--26 Sep 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Sell all shares if TLT is < $91.88, and move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Allocate 25% to C Fund if SPY is > $122.24 and either F Fund or I Fund is sold. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares if EFA is < $56.73, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Allocate 25% to S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is > $524.85. Current portfolio allocation is nil%.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 25%.
W@G1 QQQQ 09/26/05 for a 09/28/05 close~
39.48 tekprod
39.19 frenchee
39.00 rayrohn
38.88 Wonderboy with lucky 8 :)
38.55 BULLarkey possible swing 39.20 +/- .05
TTT--23 Sep 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Sell all shares if TLT is < $91.88, and move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) No buy possible today. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares if EFA is < $56.65, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Allocate 25% to S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is > $526.92. Current portfolio allocation is nil%.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 25%.
Gizmo,
Do you think 1550 will hold?
ditto to you sir...
swing man, 38.25 is only a SWAG in that it's the current value of QQQQ's lower Bollinger Band and it's around the values of the 100 and 200-day SMAs. I'm not riding the short side here as I was stopped out of my long today and we are too close for potential support. Assuming the intermediate term has changed here, I'll be looking to short when QQQQ is trading above its 5-day SMA and below its 21-day SMA. I've found thru trail and error this conbination of SMAs allows me establish or add to shorts on short-term swing highs while the intermediate-term trend is down.
I can also see 38.05 had many touches in June. If 38.25 doesn't hold, I could see 38 or so holding--your target of 38.05 is not out of the question...
See ya,
I'm thinking we will test 38.25. The volume the last two days suggests the market is weak. Almost oversold but not there yet.
...Nice pickup on the QQQVO swing man...