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Customer Success Manager and six other new positions posted on VirTra website! Strongly suggests accelerating sales and some BIG customer wins. Stock has been upped to strong buy....by me.
Fun day to be in the stock market!
Rfp....sup.....pkkff......wfc......unreal
But the key for us with RFP is they are still trading way below BV and PS way below 1 with a forward PE of about4. Lots of room to run!
Excellent call! It is a potential gold mine.
Today’s PR was meaningful.
It is a good thing and not unexpected.
They are simply paying off debt due in 2023 and these sn notes are not due til 2026.
There is no dilution and the terms are very favorable.
Just a good solid normal business move.
Ot: Best ones to buy now . All are value or deep value.
Rfp, Rell, Uve, Uihc, Afi, Sup, Wfc
I also like Vtsi though it is not a value stock. More of a great story stock that could catch fire. Profitable and great balance sheet.
I’ve thought a lot about that same question and I think the way you framed the question is the right way to look at it.
If I had to bet my life on a set of numbers I would guess Q4 will be identical to Q3. And that should be enough to get the stock to $10 in February since analysts are guessing 50cents and Q3 was 72cents. That said there are reasons for even better numbers and also some caution.
First the caution. Q4 of 2019 was an ugly surprise that no one saw coming. Lots of bad things happened all at once. I think the memory of that is keeping the stock depressed even now.
Now the good stuff.....
Lumber had a higher avg price in Q4 than Q3.
Pulp probably had a slightly higher price in Q4 than Q3.
Tissue is trending up and last cc was bullish on tissue progress.
Paper likely flat to a bit worse though.
But startup costs for the 3rd us lumber mill might be higher in Q4 than Q3.
My hope is $750mil and 80cents but even matching Q3 would be great and if they only hit analyst consensus that too would be fine. I think the stock is a heavy train with a ton of momentum for all the right reasons.
Ot: I did sell 10,000 shares of VTSI but they were the most recent (“last”) ones I had purchased. Since then I have purchased twice that many. But the bottom line is I am BYFAR the largest non employee owner of VTSI stock.
A couple reasons why I am more bullish now than ever:
1. Relative valuation vs others in sector such as Aaxn and wrap.
2. Merger activity in sector.
3. CEO guidance in Q3 cc and Q4 is now complete.
4. New USDefense bill passed.
5. Continued national focus on police training and deescalation.
6. Uptick in both daily trade volume and price.
That said, both new BOD picks were weak. Neither has purchased shares.
I still believe VirTra will have $28mil in 2021 revenue and that gets the stock to $10 this year.
The lack of people posting on this message board is surprising compared to the posting activity of 2 or 3 years ago. Now VirTra is on the cusp of a truly very good year and momentum is building. There has never been a better time to build a position in the stock. There is some volume now and one will only have to wait a couple months for a double+. And this is in spite of the overly cautious and sales-clueless CEO. The right CEO and this would easily be a $100 stock within 18 months for all the right reasons. But we will be lucky to get to $12 this year and that is a travesty.
Ot: Did a little in November but none since. Since my dog is still alive I do more hunting and hiking than ice fishing. He has short hair so loves Summer in the boat but gets cold on the ice if just standing around. Real estate also consumes too much of my time. Closing tomorrow on a small office building in Wausau.
My estimates:
Q4 order intake was $8.3million
January, 2021 through yesterday was $2.1million.
Wrap should buy VTSI. Both have what the other needs from a revenue, balance sheet, earnings, and pizazz perspective. I think it will happen within 3 months.....because it makes sense and now is the time. When VTSI announces Q4 in late March it will be too late.
And estimates up again today.
.53 for Q4 which is still too low
1.51 for 2021 which might be only 50cents too low!
See ya at $12 when the snow melts.
Buckle up!
January 2023 calls are an awesome buy.
Great multi year run is coming
I buy 2000 shares every day!
Fair value right now is $9 in my view.
Analyst estimates keep creeping up but are still way too low. 5 days ago the stock was 6.45 so a little breather is good from a technical view.
Yet another great day! Possible Q4 numbers being whispered.
Very refreshing to see signs of life with the stock. Not sure how it happened but VirTra has garnered enough visibility to be lumped in with Axon, Wrap, and others in the realm of policing.
Also refreshing for the company to finally be out ahead of the stock for mostly the right reasons. Surging orders, accelerating revenue, growing profits.
It would be interesting to hear everyone’s expectations for Q4 2020 revenue and full year 2021 revenue. In the mid-Nov cc Ferris pretty much told us where he thought 2020 would finish. Up a bit from 2019 which is pretty impressive in the year of COVID. Not as impressive in the post Floyd world.
It will be Impossible for 2021 revenue to come in below $28million.
Read WRAP pr from this morning. Sure sounds a lot like VirTra. I bet WRAP buys VTSI and in about a year or two Axon buys WRAP.
Great cc, read the transcript.
Stock will have a great 2021 and 2022!
I bought AFI shares each day this week.
It should have a multi year run of improving results.
Good grief! I just read the last couple pages of posts. I am not out of the stock. In fact my ownership is at an all time high and I would guess I am the largest non-employee shareholder.
Since the 3mil share volume day in early June 2020 VTSI has become a rather interesting stock. A day like yesterday is difficult to understand. With institutional ownership so low one possibility is eliminated. Without Sched 13 filings another is less likely. Maybe just triggers getting hit on computer trading? Maybe some sort of net buying or net selling? No way to know.
At least 2021 numbers, revenue, Eps, order intake should make Vtsi extremely undervalued by year end IF the stock remains flat.
Right now every story stock with even a whiff of being at fair value or undervalued is going up fast. Vtsi fits that criteria. A big run is ahead.
Happy New Year to all!
Me and you both!
It is still less than half of fair value.
Nice Quarterly report.
Should pop a little tomorrow.
It is worth $12 right now.
A few value investors buying today!
Nice Green Day.
FYI.......I bought back in yesterday. Mirror should result in a big Dec quarter.
A few points:
Rfp does not have a business plan. They do have a strategy, operating rules, and BOD accountability and the stock will respond to the upcoming Q4 report in late Jan. It is simply a cyclical buy. 8.2 is a slam dunk. 12 is very likely and by 14 I will be out.
Sup does have a business plan. More importantly they have tight relationships with their customers. Not easy to do in the auto industry. Best thing is they sell to everyone including ev. Only ouch is AL is high right now. A great thing is the huge barriers to entry. It will be back to $15 by later 2021.
VTSI does not have a business plan. They do not even have an annual budget. Worse yet, no 3 year goals. And worst of all the BOD does not hold CEO accountable. It is not an investable company and never will be with Ferris at the helm and figureheads on the BOD.
Dumped my last 10k of VTSI this morning!
Just stuck it in SUP.
I simply state facts.
Some facts are favorable to VirTra, VTSI, and the CEO.
Some facts are unfavorable to VirTra, VTSI, and the CEO.
Nothing posted on this or any other message board impacts a stocks price in either direction.
I view VTSI as a hold at the current price. I am happy I own a few shares and even happier it is only a few shares.
I do not believe the current CEO can grow the company quickly enough to justify a PS of 3 or 4.
I also think there are potential catalysts that could boost the stock price soon but they are all iffy:
-buyout
-new CEO
-activist investors
-big open market buys by BOD and insiders
So, yes, I do waffle. And it baffles me that anyone reads this message board or cares about it. Especially the CEO.
Now below 18cents pre split.
Lol....that was funny!
Relative to other investing opportunities, there is no reason to own VTSI.
The last decade of company performance and shareholder return are crystal clear.
The BOD and CEO demonstrate their sub-par business acumen on a daily basis.
So much potential, so little results. Very sad.
Columbus, OH - Another controversy over a police shooting. Crystal clear police need what VirTra offers....TRAINING.
Too bad the CEO does not know how to structure an effective Sales Org.
Sounds like they went over $20mil rev for 2020. The self congratulatory back-patting by a certain CEO has already begun.
Absolute textbook Three Soldiers candlestick! Up we go!
One would think at least one VirTra BOD member or high level company exec would care enough about the company and figure out a way to oust Ferris. At the places I worked it was usually pretty tough at the top with everyone trying to get to the top by stepping on whoever needed to get pushed aside.
The complacency at VirTra is neither healthy nor natural. It is fostered by the CEO’s seeming lack of drive and his satisfaction with blah revenue growth and underachievement.
I hate it when small companies pay a dividend. It screams 'we have no idea how to use capital to grow our business so here, take some." That said, the absolute worst are one-time dividends.
Now with VirTra you do raise a great point. They really do not have any clue about how to deploy money to grow the business so if they were to announce that every quarter from now til the end of time they would pay out 7 or 8 cents per share I would be fine with that. This would be about 30cents per year and be a yield of 8% at the current share price. It would cost the company $2.3mil per year so doable.
The result would be that we lose some current shareholders but we might gain an institution or two so maybe a net plus.
At some point CEO Ferris needs to own the market cap and stock price. He acts as if it is a “so what” or “who cares”. He has many tools at his finger tips to support the stock at a minimum PS of 2 yet he does not act. In fact I would argue he takes actions designed to intentionally depress the stock.
VirTra could regularly buy back shares.
Ferris could drive 50% yoy sales growth instead of none.
Ferris could work to court institutional investors.
Ferris could personally make open market buys.
He could provide explicit forward guidance.
He could encourage BOD to buy shares.
He could make a smart acquisition.
He could sell the company tomorrow for $10 if he wanted.
He could fire his head of Sales.
He could move into a CTO role and hire a new CEO.
The list is endless. Yet what does Ferris do? Very little.