Resolute Forest Products Inc (RFP)

[fishhunter]

I’ve thought a lot about that same question and I think the way you framed the question is the right way to look at it.

If I had to bet my life on a set of numbers I would guess Q4 will be identical to Q3. And that should be enough to get the stock to $10 in February since analysts are guessing 50cents and Q3 was 72cents. That said there are reasons for even better numbers and also some caution.

First the caution. Q4 of 2019 was an ugly surprise that no one saw coming. Lots of bad things happened all at once. I think the memory of that is keeping the stock depressed even now.

Now the good stuff.....
Lumber had a higher avg price in Q4 than Q3.
Pulp probably had a slightly higher price in Q4 than Q3.
Tissue is trending up and last cc was bullish on tissue progress.
Paper likely flat to a bit worse though.

But startup costs for the 3rd us lumber mill might be higher in Q4 than Q3.

My hope is $750mil and 80cents but even matching Q3 would be great and if they only hit analyst consensus that too would be fine. I think the stock is a heavy train with a ton of momentum for all the right reasons.