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You took the cheap route to deflect that question, now give us the real answer. I hope it is not, "study the heck out of the charts and TA. Trade furiously, and anticipate every market change and hope for confirmation, but be sure to set your stop orders if all else fails."
if you understand how market works.
Vikng, I think you are right on - but for one point. You posted "I do not see anyone trying to take the SP down at this point in time." I am not quite so sure about this point you make. Watching the trading in the last while, what you see is a lot of smallish transactions while the SP drifts, and then several times a day there is a very brief flurry for a couple of minutes of larger trades often by an order of magnitude that drops the SP 2-3 cents and sometimes done several times of a short while, perhaps half an hour or so. I think this may be a more restrained version of "taking the SP down" but still quite obvious if you look for it.
I would also add, that when the price goes up a few cents over a period, you suddenly hit wall of asks between 50k to 100k to slow down or stop the climb. More action by the sane people, just less obvious, and less in your face.
Based on your description of the books, it sounds more like they are testimonials and assertions to the effectiveness of TA saying "look how we made many millions using TA." If this is correct, then this is probably not what I am looking for. As I explained, what I would find helpful, is basic EXPALANTORY material for why or how TA can be predictive, a theory of how or why it works - not testimony of successful practitioners telling us how they made their millions using TA.
I thought Ramen were the food of choice on this BB.
Thanks for the response.
I wouldn't call myself a follower, but I certainly enjoy your posts and would not want you stop. As you say, you have many followers.
As you say it is not your duty to convince me about TA, But I would appreciate it if you could suggest one or two books or papers that would explain the rational for why TA can be predictive of the future. A book that explains, but does not assert, why the charts can be predictive of the future. I am not so much interested in the mechanics of TA and how to make the analysis, just a solid explanation of the basic assumption for why historic charts can be predictive of the future? Is this some sort of study statistical mass psychology?
I would add to my previous comment that your own success in trading as you report to us for your personal portfolio, while great, and I wish you much luck, is not proof your system really works. Your success could just as easily be based on a heightened intuitive sense of where the stock is going which you see as verification for your charting analysis rather than your simultaneous knowledge of the fundamentals and a good entry point really based on that as much as your analysis of the charts. Btw, I would be very interested whether you EVER trade a stock without knowing ANYTHING about what the company does and have no knowledge of what sort of "widgets" it sells, or info on potential future revenue streams, or market potential, or competition? Just trade the stock based on a TA analysis with the name of the stock NOT shown on the chart? Have you ever actually done that?
Truth be told, if you can show that you are right 75% of the time, or even just 60% or even just 55% of the time, I would say, there is a winning system and will make you a lot of money. If you can show a CONSISTENT correct (actionable) prediction rate that is better than 51% - you have a winner. I suspect this is difficult to show even to yourself in an honest if private review of your own predictions.
Yes, Sojo that is great. I do not doubt that you are right fairly often. But now with equal honesty will you also cite to all those posts where the call you predicted were either flat out wrong or delayed by days, weeks or months? I am sure there are many of these as well. I might add, that many of the predictions either way, are not flat out, but rather hedged predictions of something that MIGHT happen in the coming days or weeks (or if confirmed in the future). (perhaps sounding a little like NWBO speak, that we are all familiar with).
The key to profits is to be able to predict the future albeit short term - that's not impossible otherwise I'll have to join you on a ramen diet:))
Sojo, as you know I do not put much stock in TA, BUT somehow (DON'T REALLY KNOW WHY) but when you post a reassuring post on the SP - I somehow do feel reassured - figure that!
Not at all. It is clear to all that we are waiting on publication by the official statements of NWBO. So there is only so far that you can move the goal post on waiting for publication. At some point in the not too distant future if you have not yet managed to publish, the game is up. NWBO management understands this, as do we all. So if they were scamming us they would not go for a story to which there is a definite end, beyond which you can not push the goal post and still be believed. Therefore, the only possible conclusion here is that it is not a scam and they are really working on getting the journal article published, and we are still well within a reasonable time for that to be believable. They know that if they do wait too long for the publication story to still be acceptable as plausible - they are cooked. So they would not choose this scam if they wanted to keep on forever in this mode without releasing TLD ever. Not a possibility here!
Not anonymous, I think they either just ran out of time or the question was passed over as being too sensitive.
I submitted this question that was not responded to:
When would you suggest dendritic cell therapy?
Anyone know which other trials require the freezing of the resected tumor? Not our PIII as that is already closed.
No one expected anything newsworthy here!
Thanks Sojo.
I am happy making lots of money here - where are you at?
I do not think an RS is inevitable! NWBO has shown that they will not jump into a RS willy nilly and only use it as a last resort, and given all the good news expected to come - we are far from that!
I know very little about your condition, but Gary, have you had an antibody test to determine to what extent your immune compromised body is producing antibodies? If not, IMO, I would do what I could to get an antibody test to see if you are in fact producing enough antibody in response to the vaccine shots (1,2 and booster) to effectively protect you from Covid. Until you get the results I would be careful and take all the Covid precautions you can. Hopefully your immune system is not that shot and is capable of producing the necessary antibodies to protect you. The issue I raise, is not whether to take the booster or not, but whether it will protect you or not.
Thanks again Sojo.
Then there is this long hammer which appeared earlier as well and led to a false bottom.
As for the higher bottom, there were two candlesticks in succession , a doji and small hammer which was a pointer to a reversal and it did.
If the trend is down and there is a rally (minor high), there is a possibility that it could continue upwards hence miss the ride. In this case if you're compelled to buy, you could put a stop loss at the minor low to avoid a bigger loss. Trading against the trend is a risk.
Correct. We have to wait for confirmation so one does not trade until confirmation to reduce risk.
There are also other TA indicators one looks to in figuring out the likelihood of a bottom. So it's not all trend lines which is but one tool in the arsenal of trading.
Sojo, I am always happy to hear positive predictions!
Hi Sojo, this chart you posted is very good in explaining your method of choice of lines. I appreciate your effort to bear with my questions. They make your methodology quite clear and is an excellent example. It is also very good jumping off point for my further questions.
You have here a series of three lines chosen after the dates of their lowest lowest lows at the time, the first determined about June 21, the second determined about July 14, and the last by the low on about Aug. 2 or so, as best as I can eyeball. (btw, was the second line drawn a little inaccurately, as it seems to have slightly missed the peak of the lowest minor high on about July 10, or am I still not really understanding the method to draw this line? Doesn't really change the line by much.)
So let's take these lines one at a time and see what they "predict" and at what point you would be comfortable in issuing your prediction.
Following the first line we get a breakout for several days with what we no know as a minor high on about June 28 or so. But when you were on June 23 or 24, you did not yet know that this would just be a minor high. The upward trend could have continued far beyond the minor high of June 28 for all you knew at the time. It could have been the start of a huge and lengthy uptrend? Can you predict that the next movement upward would just be a minor high that would end on June 28 to become a short minor high instead and rise no higher than about $1.65 which of course we now know with 20/20 hind sight.
Similar questions would apply to line 2 and 3. In particular wrt line 3, how do you know that this is the beginning of the major trend higher, rather than perhaps soon turning lower to yet further continue the larger down trend since the peak on about May 15 at $2.15??
At any point in time, we do not know whether the current high (low) is minor or not until some time in the future needed for confirmation. It is with 20/20 hind sight that we are able to determine the "minor" status of any critical point in the chart. How is this predictive?
Hi Sojo. Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions on the terminology and the lines. The formalism you have chosen seems to be an interesting way to organize ones understanding of a random chart and does a pretty good job of that. How to choose the lines of interest with the minor highs an minor lows is really quite interesting and intuitively seems to do a good job of getting to the essence of the trends in the chart which can also be seen intuitively but with less rigor.
However I am still at a loss to understand the claim for why these lines are predictive. At any point in time, you will still be depending on confirmation of the lows and highs etc which means that any current line is contingent on what might happen later to be confirmed or not. That is not a prediction, that is a contingent guess now, to be confirmed or not by later future events on the chart of the next period of time. I can do that too, I can predict a buy today for example, but contingent on the events of the next days or weeks. So what exactly have I told you now if it is all contingent on future events and not dependable? I am investing money now and will not be happy if the confirmation does not happen or is overturned.
The market is moving continuously so what appears to be random walk may at the end provide a picture of what it will do next and that is our job as a trader to figure it out.
Every hundred mile trip starts with the first mile.
But that would leave you cleaning you own toilets and mowing your own grass.
Anders, I think the difference comes from how far out you take the valuation. You seem to assume a sale of co in the period of a year or two so you come up with a buyout on the order of $22B, those talking 3 digit billions or even a Trillion considering a period as long as a decade where the success of DIRECT in many cancers could take it way over the top. Of course with a BO there is no long term horizon except for the BP that does the BO.
Thanks. The instructions on how to draw the line sound pretty specific, but I need a bit of translation. What exactly is a "highest minor low point" as opposed to a highest low point, or what is a "lowest minor high point" as opposed to a lowest high point?
I will be glad to have that answer from you which I am sure you will find a trivial (simple) question. The next question really goes more to the heart of the issue.
I can see intuitively that the line drawn as you do tends to be a good estimate to the trend of the chart, be it up or down. I grant you this. But why should this historic length and slope of this line be predictive? The line captures the essential features of the chart pattern (that has already happened), but why should this predict what that slope and length will be down the road in future trading? The slope can change at any time that should be unpredictable if the trading on the stock market is a random walk?
This thread is starting to produce heat, not light - so lets drop it here. You got the last word.
Reaching a Trillion, is a real possibility in my third period if they become the solid cancer SOC. Just I am not sure if they will be the first to get there.
Give me a break, that is not a reservation. NO ONE KNOWS!! If we are longs, we all believe, as it is obviously not certain. But I believe this without the need to resort to disclaimers about the tiny incertitude.
I do not agree. While it is true that at this time this is the case, but this will change EVEN WHILE ON THE OTC, beginning with the positive TLD and publication and growing with the BLA and become bigtime after approval by the RAs even if they have not yet had the opportunity to up list. But it is true, at this time that is a hurdle to pass.
I normally don't venture, but I will give it a shot against my better judgment. In any case I am not sure if you will get any satisfaction as my position is fairly "loosey goosey." I roughly think in terms of three time frames: 1) to shortly after the TLD (and publication), 2) from then until some short while after approval for GBM et als. and commercialization 3) Thereafter, on the road to approval and commercialization of DIRECT for solid cancers. This last could take us up to a decade out.
It is my belief (and hope for period 3) that by and large we will witness multiple gains in each of these periods followed by retracements depending on the flow of facts and the flow of news provided. I only tend to think in vague much rounded numbers for each of these periods, getting much fuzzier the further out we try to project. I can not even attempt to guess the timing of peaks or the amount of the retracements (Sojo claims to help on that) and my vision is largely based on my attempts to understand the basic fundamentals, the basic science, the market, and the competition, and the ability of the company to deliver.
My number predictions are not going to satisfy, but if I were to try to get more specific and detailed this far out, it would be more of a wish than a prediction. So for period 1 (a little more detailed as it is almost upon us) I think anything from $6 to $12 maybe a little more if the BLA is issued shortly there after. For period 2, I think it could go from something about $15 to $30 depending on how many areas of GBM and rGBM they are approved for and if any other gliomas are included and how much off label use develops over time. The last period is most sketchy for obvious reasons, but given that I believe the platform is basically the same, all we need is the time to run the clinical trials to prove the point. So I hope that depending on how many indications prove out we really could be into triple digit billions for market cap and maybe even multiples of that if the results are really great and this eventually proves to be the SOC for solid cancers in general. I have only provided numbers for the overall peaks but have no vision about how deep the various retracements that are sure to come may be.
The major variable on the cost side will be how well the Flaskworks device will be able to reduce the cost of production of the vaccine.
Sorry, but that is about all I have to offer. Notice, I nowhere said anything about what if it does not work, because I believe it will.
I tend not to stick my head out very often and make my predictions public, but I do at times have some feelings on share price usually based on fundamentals and other relevant info, but tend to keep them to myself. and more often than not, I am right about 50 % of the time. (I don't really count, but I am right more or less as often as I am wrong). I suspect your average is probably similar. Nevertheless, I enjoy reading your posts but wish you would explain more of the terminology you use for the uninitiated and how you choose to draw your lines on the chart. There are other points one can choose to draw lines through on these charts. Which lines are meaningful, and which are not - which lines are just lines and nothing else. You never know, you might convert me yet. Even if I were inclined to take TA more seriously, I am never sure which of your posts to follow, and which are more in the sense of just a possibility rather than solid advice where to place your money.
Sojo, I would have predicted the same merely based on the approaching Labor Day at the start of September, and the past history that things tend not to happen in the vacation doldrums of late August. Same result but no charts needed.
Just the fact we cant all agree with the o/s share count should tell you that on TLD day those jumping in will not have a clue what the PPS actually represents as fully diluted market cap....
When this comes in, you can have the entire cow!
Who says it doesn't work, you?
Last year there were good reasons to think TLD was imminent and that we were going to get a great result because the article had not yet been built into the process which is creating an indefinite delay,