full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Gapping up:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SIHI +11.1%, (light volume), EBIX +4.2%, PUDA +2.9%, XLNX +2.1% (ticking higher).
M&A news: LZ +27.1% (to be acquired by Berkshire Hathaway for $135 in cash, ~28% premium to Friday's close), AHII +8.4% (Animal Health Intl to merge with privately held Lextron for $4.25 per share, ~11% premium to Friday's close ), KSP (K-Sea Transportation to be acquired by Kirby for $8.15 per share)..
Select solar related names showing strength (seen as safer alternative to nuclear power in wake of Japan disaster): LDK +6.2%, SOL +6.2%, STP +5.7%, SPWRA +4.9%, JASO +4.6%, WFR +4%, FSLR +3.9%, TAN +3.8%.
A few LZ related names ticking higher: NEU +2.2%, ASH +2.1%, WLK +1.0%
Other news: CAGC +20.6% (forms special committee to to investigate certain allegations made by third parties with respect to the co and certain related issues; will not meet its 10-K filing deadline), CIGX +18.6% (continued momentum), NBG +11.1% (European bank stocks strong following EU agreement on new bailout terms ), APWR +10.6% (wins $30.5 mln contract to build biomass power plant in China), PWER +7.6% (as commenced shipping inverter products from its Shenzhen, China manufacturing and design facility), MI +1.9% (issues response to letter from Wisconsin Union Group threatening to boycott M&I ), WLK +1.9% (still checking).
Analyst comments: JDSU +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), LULU +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity).
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TNDM -10.2%.
Select uranium related names showing weakness: UEC -20.6%, DNN -19.1%, URRE -18.1%, URG -16.7%, CCJ -12%, .
Select rare earth stocks trading lower: SHZ -7.3%, MCP -1.8%.
Select Japan related names under continued pressure: HIT -14.3% (discloses buildings and production facilities have suffered damages, mainly at production bases in Ibaraki prefecture), SNE -8.3% (discloses operations affected by Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, tsunami and related power outages ), PC -7.9%, TM -6.4%, CAJ -6.3%, MFG -5.9%, HMC -5.9%, MTU -5.9%, .
Other news: SHAW -10.4% (co issued statement saying that at this time, does not believe there will be an impact on Shaw's nuclear projects currently under construction in the United States and China), CBPO -6% (still checking), AFL -4.1% (Aflac Japan corporate offices fully operational; Expected Impact on Japan Sales Minimal; Co affirms 2011 operating EPS Target; at the low end of 8-12% operating earnings growth for 2011), GE -2.3% (releases annual report), MDT -1.8% (Cramer makes cautious comments on MadMoney), PODD -1% (files for $150 mln mixed shelf offering ), BAC -0.6% (under pressure following reports that an anonymous group is planning to release company emails).
Analyst comments: TOL -2.3% (light volume, downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), LVS -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), OPEN -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merriman).
Platinum getting hit hard tonite. Probably some commodity investors thinking the catalytic converter business will be slowed as Japanese car makers are temporarily debilitated.
Copper and steel should do well as Japanese reconstruction projects will place large demands in the next couple of years. TGB (like FCX) should do well this week.
Not clear how PMs and PM miners will do in the next few weeks. If gold and silver fall hard ... the PM miners will fall harder. Not clear yet how Japanese disasters will impact world economies and appetites for metals in the coming year.
Uranium miners could be negatively impacted due to all the negative press on failures Japanese reactors and the tough business of building safe reactors.
Expecting a turbulent week/month/yr as the world's axis shimmies with natural disasters and political upheaval.
... or Connecticut, Hank!
WKBT: WEIKANG BIO-TECHNOLOGY GROUP CO., INC
Does anyone have ideas why this one is fading (other than that it's down like all Chinese microcaps)? It's had a steady fall over the last few weeks. Maybe I'll order their artery cleansing med to see if it clears my head, makes me run faster, and increase my sex drive (kidding, just kidding).
'peeker
ps> There seems to be a very high probability that next week's overall market WILL be BETTER than THIS LOUSY WEEK. How could it not?
Will you guys stop claiming that CCME is impacting the entire China microcap market? It may correlate but it is not necessarily impacting it at all. China has had its own bad news in the past few days, regardless of what CCME does. Expecting the next movement of China microcap stocks to depend on the direction of CCME is pure fantasy (IMHO, of course).
'peeker
ps> Good luck to CCME longs; I have shied away from CCME for a few weeks now BTW due to U N C E R T A I N T Y.
10:31 Commodities Selloff.
Like stocks, commodities are caught up in a broad-based sell-off. As such, every single commodity in the CRB Commodity Index is in the red. That has taken the CRB down 1.6%, which makes for its worst single-session slide since January... A 3.0% drop in oil prices to $101.25 per barrel is putting the most pressure on the CRB Index. Oil prices are now down more than 5% from the two-year high that they set earlier this week... Natural gas prices have extended their downturn to trade with a 3.3% at $3.80 per MMBtu in the wake of inventory data for the week ended March 4. Inventories had a draw of 71 bcf, which is less than the expected draw of 78 bcf... Precious metals have been hit hard. Specifically, gold prices are down 1.2% to $1412 per ounce. Silver prices have slumped to a 2.5% loss at $35.14 per ounce.
SEA.ax/SDCJF.pk: Bought some this AM myself. I hope it doesn't turn out like the others I bought this week, like AUMN, SSN, AMYZF.pk, and GSFVF.pk
Tough day today; all investment classes appear to be down (which is pretty rare).
To paraphrase Rosanne Rosannadanna, "If it's not one China stock, it's another". For instance, here's SHZ, another China stock that's under scrutiny. There will always be many media personalities (e.g., Herb Greenberg, Jim Cramer) that enjoy denigrating the validity of China stock financials.
14:00 SHZ: China Shen Zhou Mining received a recent report regarding the Company's operations, finances and outlook; management believes there are a significant number of errors and miscalculations (4.30 -0.64)
Co announced that it has received a recent report regarding the Company's operations, finances and outlook. "Upon reviewing, management believes there are a significant number of factual errors and miscalculations in the report. Management does not agree with the author's conclusions and is preparing a response to these allegations and factual errors. The Company will advise shareholders when the response is completed and posted on China Shen Zhou's website."
OT: No, SSN just needs one of Warren Buffet's (or your) little blue pills, Kozuh, to keep it going.
I know we tend to focus on great little "up and comers" here, but we could probably limit our risk by at least comparing stocks of interest against some time-tested metrics. For instance, Benjamin Graham determined whether a company was undervalued by computing a fair value using a simple mathematical equation. Of course, Ben Graham was Warren Buffet's mentor and teacher from his college days at Columbia University.
The Graham Number = Fair Value of a Stock = Square Root of (22.5) x (Earnings per Share) x (Book Value per Share)
Here's an article that talks a little more about it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/257313-contrarian-ideas-4-undervalued-stocks-stuck-in-a-downtrend?source=article_sb_exclusives_1_old
I'd love to hear what other metrics others are using to determine "fair value" on stocks of interest. The point is ... calculations may be much more useful that gut feelings when trying to decide buy and sell points for our investments.
Regards,
'peeker
ps> The Graham Number does not take forward earnings estimates into consideration, but we could easily use forward earnings estimates to determine what the fair value may be in future. One of the problems of the Graham Number is that it may cause us to get out too soon when a stock has good momentum to the upside. Including a growth parameter in the calculation of fair value would also be beneficial.
SSN appeared in a negative article by Rougemont on Seeking Alpha. He expects a pullback as oil prices drop:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/257172-7-energy-stocks-that-could-drop-significantly-if-oil-rally-fades?source=yahoo
Excerpt:
"Samson Oil and Gas Corp. (SSN) hit a new 52 week high recently at $4.75. The relative strength index is about 72, which indicates shares are at overbought levels. These shares have risen from a 52 week low of about 37 cents to nearly $5! The 50 day moving average is $2.39 and the 200 day moving average is $1.42. SSN has reported revenues of less than $6 million for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2010. With these shares extended well past their 50 and 200 day moving averages, I would not be surprised to see a pullback to the $2s when the party is over."
Frickin frackin SSN has been getting freakin frucked the last couple of days.
AMY.v old interviews with CEO (lifted from Stockhouse).
my69z1
3/8/2011 1:39:16 PM
I did a quick scan and maybe i passed up these older videos here...it's 3 parts but only about 30 mins total. very good and to the point interviews...but keep in mind they're older,,( early 2010 )...always good to look back a little ways to judge if a game plan is being executed.
12:41 CCME:
* China MediaExpress (CCME 12.93 -0.05) shares spiked following a rumor that the co could be a takeover tgt.
As mentioned before, while many rumors circulate during the day, and the validity of the source of these rumors can be questionable, the speculation may increase volatility in the near term.
ILNS ... interesting long-shot with over 140million shares traded vs. avg 11million/day. Patent news sounds great, and perhaps milestone payment(s) will even bring them back to profitability.
Popped up to .21 back in April then fell back below a nickel in July last year. Has been a stinker since then.
Thanks for the notice. I bought some this morning before I forgot my name.
Regards,
speek_tocker
The plan to divest TARM to TRGD shareholders over a 24month period seems kind of bizarre. Why not just distribute all TARM shares owned by TRGD to TRGD shareholders? Could there be tax implications? Probably.
This incestuous relationship between TARM and TRGD has always made for strange bedfellows.
GLTA,
'peeker
ps> Long TRGD (and about to become long TARM as well). Blessed be the ways of the Biscuit.
Mr. Biscuit remains a man of his word. Cough Cough!!!
Wade, it is irrational to think that a positive outcome for CCME will be a positive catalyst for all the low PE China stocks. The universe does not rotate about the earth, and the China stocks do not rotate about CCME.
That said, I do hope CCME works out OK for you, though I no longer hold any.
Regards,
'peeker
Wade, I agree that Greenberg gave little rationale for agreeing with Muddy Waters' perspective. Greenberg's article should not have been written; perhaps he was just the unwitting pawn of someone who contacted him from Muddy Waters.
MMT.v: DigiTech, thanks for link to MMT share of Umusadedge reserves. Looks like the UMU field will be producing for a number of years, even if they are able to increase production with UMU-7 and UMU-8. Will be interesting to see depletion information in next reserves update.
Regards,
Steve
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk: Mart's reserves are supposedly in the process of being updated this month, but I have been unable to find an existing official statement of reserves for MMT. If anyone can point me to a link showing the (old) reserves for Mart, I would really appreciate it.
Thanks in advance, and good luck for another great year for MMT shareholders as Mart continues to drill and produce from their Umusadedge field.
'peeker
Mart's reserves are supposedly in process of being updated, but I have been unable to find an existing official statement of reserves for MMT. If anyone can point me to a link showing the (old) reserves for Mart, I would really appreciate it.
Thanks in advance, and good luck for another great year for MMT shareholders as Mart continues to drill and produce from their Umusadedge field.
'peeker
OT: Concert for George Harrison provides some really great streamed background music for trading.
... or just being spiritual.
In any case, check it out; I think you'll ENJOY !!!!!!!!!
http://www.concertforgeorge.com/
'peeker
AGGI: Most revenue comes from services rather than production currently. Here's an excerpt from the PR where they announced purchase of their HQ building.
"For the nine months ended September 30, 2010, the Company reported total revenue of $20.8 million, which was a 96% increase from the same period for 2009. Of this amount, for the 2010 period, $19.9 million in revenue was turnkey drilling revenue, and $875,600 was oil and gas production revenue. During the first nine months of 2009, the Company had $10.2 million of turnkey drilling revenue and $424,800 of oil and gas production revenue. The Company's earnings before income taxes (EBIT) of $5.0 million increased by 845% when compared to the Company's earnings for the same period of 2009. Net income was $2.8 million for the first nine months of 2010 as compared with a net loss of $664,748 for the same period of 2009."
Still, as things go, it does hold some good potential as a new O&G production play if their horizontal fracing (to be done by Schlumberger in April) works out for their oil well currently being drilled. Their implication is that production revenues would increase significantly if the Allied Wallrath #1H well (Leon County, TX) can produce from 200-900bopd (inline with others frac'd wells in the nearby Woodbine area).
Here's an update about their Allied Wallrath #1H well about to be frac'd in April.
http://alliedenergy.com/uploads/news/id58/AE_PR_2-23-11.pdf
'peeker
ps> Bought some AGGI as a lottery ticket, thanks to KiK.
AGGI: You are correct that most revenue comes from services, not production, presently. Here's an excerpt from the PR where they announced purchase of their HQ building.
"For the nine months ended September 30, 2010, the Company reported total revenue of $20.8 million, which was a 96% increase from the same period for 2009. Of this amount, for the 2010 period, $19.9 million in revenue was turnkey drilling revenue, and $875,600 was oil and gas production revenue. During the first nine months of 2009, the Company had $10.2 million of turnkey drilling revenue and $424,800 of oil and gas production revenue. The Company's earnings before income taxes (EBIT) of $5.0 million increased by 845% when compared to the Company's earnings for the same period of 2009. Net income was $2.8 million for the first nine months of 2010 as compared with a net loss of $664,748 for the same period of 2009."
Still, as things go, it does hold some promise as a new O&G production play if their horizontal fracing (to be done by Schlumberger in April) works out for their oil well currently being drilled. Their implication is that production revenues would increase significantly if the well can produce from 200-900bopd (inline with others frac'd wells in the area).
'peeker
ps> Bought some AGGI as lottery ticket ... one never knows when Lady Luck will call.
'peeker
Good videos with overview of oil drilling operations, including fracking ops can be found at:
http://www.alliedenergy.com/index.php?page=video-gallery
"Vertical Drilling" gives a good overview of drilling ops.
"Horizontal Drilling" for details of horizontal drilling details and clarification of benefits.
ROYL ... why short? News looks positive.
Royale Begins Producing Goddard #2
3:07p ET February 23, 2011 (PR NewsWire)
Royale Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: ROYL) today announced it has received regulatory approval to commence production on the Goddard #2 well. Pursuant to a public hearing before the Colusa County Board of Supervisors, Royale was granted a Final Major Use Permit, allowing the company to "open the spigot."
The well was immediately placed into production and is currently producing at a rate of approximately 10,000 MCF per day.
The Goddard #1 has been on-line, producing approximately 5,000 MCF per day since 3rd quarter 2010. The wells together with the newly drilled Goddard #3, which is also expected to commence production later this week, will drive company production totals to the highest levels in over a decade.
"Our forthcoming announcement of profit in 2010 does not reflect production levels achieved with today's announcement. We look forward to our future results as the new gas sales are reflected in the 2011 bottom-line," said Stephen Hosmer.
The 2010 earnings are expected to be released in early March, reflecting an overall positive trend in the company's results.
The construction of the pipeline from the recently drilled Magnum discovery will begin this month, allowing gas to flow from this well and from the Hubbard well if successful. The Hubbard is currently being drilled and total depth is expected to be reached next week.
About the Company
Headquartered in San Diego, Royale Energy, Inc. is an independent energy company. The company is focused on development, acquisition, exploration, and production of natural gas and oil in California, Texas and the Rocky Mountains. It has been a leading independent producer of oil and natural gas for over 20 years. The company's strength is continually reaffirmed by investors who participate in funding over 50% of the company's new projects. Additional information about Royale Energy, Inc. is available on its web site at www.royl.com.
PVG.to share count: Fully diluted: 87,319,586
50,000,000oz x $1400/oz = $70,000,000,000 worth of gold (???)
$70,000,000,000 worth of gold
_____________________________ = $801.65 worth of gold / share
87,319,586 shares
Now That's Sexy Math, don't you think?
(stockholders won't ever get that much, but still looks really good)
'peeker
mranger, your perspective is much appreciated.
VST.v/VSTFF.pk, TGA and MMT.v/MAUXF.pk all have substantial Oil E&P operations in "unstable" areas (Kurdistan, Egypt, and Nigeria, respectively). I own some of all three and have a growing concern (wasn't big concern when I was buying them, just now that I own them) about the impact of changes taking place in these areas.
This is one of those psychological challenges where I'm having trouble divorcing my bias about stocks I own from the situation at hand. For instance, I'm saying, well, things may be a little unpredictable right now, but at least they're not in Libya or Bahrain. Such is the rationalization that takes place in the mind.
Question I must answer is:
SHOULD I REDUCE MY STAKE IN THESE STOCKS BASED ON WHAT I SEE IN THE NEWS THIS WEEK ABOUT GROWING UNREST AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY IN THESE COUNTRIES?
I haven't come up with a good answer yet, so I continue to hold these stocks based on their existing situations (w/o accounting for an appropriate risk-related discount).
Anybody have any good advice (preferably civil) for me? Maybe you have an opinion about what to do with a particular one of these stocks or generally how to deal with situations like this? For instance, are others that hold these stocks selling some for safety's sake? Are you setting a stop loss that limits your potential loss for these stocks?
Regards,
'peeker
GORO NEWS
PRESS RELEASE
February 22, 2011
NYSE Amex: GORO
GOLD RESOURCE CORPORATION DRILLING RETURNS HIGHEST GRADE INTERCEPTS TO DATE
DENVER – Tuesday February 22, 2011 – Gold Resource Corporation’s (GORO) (NYSE Amex: GORO) development drilling returns highest grade intercepts to date including 11 meters down hole of 37.48 grams gold per tonne (1.20 ounce per tonne) and 2183 grams silver per tonne (70.20 ounce per tonne) within 28.6 meters of 21.64 grams gold per tonne (0.70 ounce per tonne) and 2178 grams silver per tonne (70.30 ounce per tonne) from its Arista deposit. The Company expects initial production from its high-grade Arista deposit, located at its El Aguila Project, in the next few weeks. Gold Resource Corporation is a low-cost gold producer with operations in the southern state of Oaxaca, Mexico.
From an underground drill station set up on level 2, above the Arista ore body, development drill holes were designed to test the character, grade and locations of the Arista and Baja veins to assist in mine development. In a fan hole drilled -45 degrees and approximately 50 meters ahead of drift development work on level 5, high-grade gold and silver were intercepted 85 meters down hole.
La Arista deposit development infill drill highlights include:
Hole # 5110004, drilled 45 degrees (lengths are not true width)
• 11 meters of 37.48 g/t gold, 2183 g/t silver, 1.36% copper, 0.98% lead, 5.25% zinc
within,
• 28.6 meters of 21.64 g/t gold, 2178 g/t silver, 1.84% copper, 1.79% lead, 4.94% zinc
To read entire press release and view attached images and maps click or past the following link to your web browser:
http://goldresourcecorp.com/releases/GRC-2011-02-22-1.pdf
CCME: Wade, didn't you notice that the recent article on SAlpha beat u to the $30 target?
"I am assigning a price floor of $30 and a ceiling of $45, with a generous side of uncertainty."
... Oh, Wade, perhaps your call for $30 by 1April was no more than April Fool's yoke?
As interesting as all this is, IMHO, u r a weeee bit unrealistic to expect a CCME double in 6 wks, Bubba! We shall see what we shall see.
Regards,
'peeker
CCME: Another supporter suggests that the shorts are a bunch of amateurs who may well have to eat their own shorts. Time will tell.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/253682-china-mediaexpress-reiterating-my-buy-based-on-global-hunter-report?source=yahoo
CCME: I agree. After buying yesterday, I decided to take a small profit this afternoon to eliminate the risk of Muddy Waters mixing up more mud-pies over the weekend to throw at CCME on Tuesday.
The goal of investing is not to be "right", but rather to make a profit as best you can, including risk mitigation where it requires selling an unstable stock like CCME due to uncertainty.
Regards, and have a great long weekend, y'all VMC Mothers!
'peeker
VST.v/VSTFF.pk Announces appointment of Gen Abizaid to BoD. The point was made on StockHouse that if the hole in Kurdistan were a duster, they wouldn't be bothering to appoint General Abizaid to the BoD.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Vast-Exploration-Appoints-ccn-2261873509.html?x=0&.v=1
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk is not approaching what appears to be fair value by a long shot. Mgt should be "out there" drumming up some investor interest by now.
Has anyone heard even an inkling from Mart about whether/when they plan to hit the trail with a well-polished dog and pony $how? They have a great play in Nigeria, but to reach fair market value, they'll need to eventually tell their story widely and address any concerns out there. It is important to dispel any concerns (valid or invalid) that may exist about Nigerian challenges.
Regards,
'peeker
10bagger, this one has really come a long way in a short time (up about 400% in last 3 months). I tried buying just a few this AM with no luck. Just curious, are you trading both sides, that is, are you trading this one for a few ticks at a time? For instance I saw that yesterday you posted a couple of buys that took it over a dollar. Today, since trade resumption, the bid-ask are creeping up just a bit at a time.
Regards,
'peeker
ps> BTW, it's not easy for me to see realtime quotes on this one. I use Charles Schwab to get quotes on pink versions of Canadian stocks, but LDRXF.pk seems to get few updates for some reason...
CCME: Muddy Waters slings mud again.
Muddy Waters, LLC Maintains 'Strong Sell' On China MediaExpress (CCME)
2:53 pm ET 02/17/2011 - StreetInsider
Muddy Waters, LLC reiterated their Strong Sell on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: CCME) following an analyst report from of Global Hunter Securities which has help the stock recover today.
"Ms. Luo and Mr. Cheng s documents contain gross misstatements of facts that are material to the investment case in favor of CCME. Muddy Waters, LLC intends to respond to these misstatements with evidence of the inaccuracies within a reasonable time period."
CCME shorts are still in the game it seems. Look at the volume & price drop around 2:52pm. W O W ~~~
I bought some at 14.01 just for the excitement and to let Wade know we are listening to his and Glen Bradford's and Global Hunter's arguments.
GLTA CCME lovers and fighters!
'peeker