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re DELL ads
Yesterday, a good friend of mine who has a small company received an e-mail from Dell:
"We'll help you get desktop security covered"
Within the e-mail, there were links to TPM technology as well as the ETS product...(as well as other security related products...such as smart cards and virus protection.) This is the first e-mailings of TPM/Wave software that I've seen coming DIRECTLY from DELL.....FWIW It seems as though Dell's security push has STARTED!
Sincerely,
Jas
unclevername.....THANKS!! As I'm currently out of the country....I truly appreciate your transcript.
Sincerely,
Jas
Ispro...Thanks for the update!!
Sincerely,
Jas
Tony...re Shipments in first 9 months....I was thinking the same thing.
Sincerely,
Jas
Kant...Waves success or failure is going to be determined in part by the size of the TPM deployment over the next few years. Obviously, once the TPM market arrives, Wave still has to execute....but the market has to arrive first. With companies like Intel/Windbond/Broadcom/Infinion/STMicro/AMD/Atmel all involved with TPMs....one can conclude that the TPM train has ALREADY left the station....and that can only bring a smile to our faces.
Sincerely,
Jas
re AMD
Thanks Andy...I knew that you and Doma would be all over AMDs presidio. It appears that Presidio maybe available in Q2 of 2006
Sincerely,
Jas
AMD and TPMs
http://www.overclockers.com/articles1236/
"Presidio is AMDs version of TPM"
Sorry if posted already...just searching to see what AMD was up to regarding security.
Sincerely,
Jas
Vader...re OEM announcement....I assume you know that VISTA will not be available to consumers until the Holiday season of 2006! I HOPE we aren't waiting unitl then to announce our next OEM relationship! )))))))
Sincerely,
Jas
Zen...re deployment boat...You're 100% correct. The revenues generated at this point are NOT as important as the course the PC OEMs are navigating regarding deployment of TPMs. What we all should be concentrating on is the overall deployment of the TPM equipped PCs/Laptops and what their(PC OEMs) public comments are regarding future security offerings. For example, in the recent Dell PR...it was stated that most of the offerings in the Enterprise arena would be equipped with SMRs and TPM technology. Whether that starts in Q3/Q4 or Q1/Q2 of 2006 is not as important as the fact that it WILL take place. We all have waited for years for the market to develop....Folks...it's taking place in front of our eyes...but yet there are many who can't see it....IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
Good evening Weby,
Thanks for the note. Everyone is fine. (I can't PM at this time)
Sincerely,
Jas
Ramsey...Thanks...I knew they were offering the 1.2s on some of their desktops....what I couldn't figure out was why they weren't doing it on their laptops. Domas point is interesting.
Sincerely,
Jas
Thanks for the reply Doma...appreciate it.
Sincerley,
Jas
Eamonnshute/Doma....Can you guys figure out why Sony and Dell are still using tpm 1.1 whereas Gateway is including TPM 1.2s in their laptops?? Obviously, Dell is serious about TPMs as per their inclusion in the world tour....so why not push the version that will be able to use MS Vista?
Sincerely,
Jas
Eamonnshute...re Sony BX ...Thanks I just went to their site and saw it again...it is comes WITH their TPM...ie...it appears to be BUNDLED.
Sincerely,
Jas
Doma...re Sony's latest laptop....I thought we had seen on their website a few weeks ago that they were using Waves software....has this changed?
Sincerely,
Jas
trustco...wrong GUY????
re Dell Edition v 2.0
Sorry if already posted:
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/learnmore/learnmore.aspx?c=us&cs=555&l=en&s=biz&...
Dell Edition v 2.0
Dell SKU A0489031
Sincerely,
Jas
Putterboy...re Dell ETS 2.0.....Nice DD!!!
Sincerely,
Jas
Doma...Thanks...
Jas
Doma...can you take a quick look at the url I posted....the part about restoring the encryption keys 1.2...and the Embassy icon....Is this suggesting that TPM 1.2 and the Embassy software is in fact bundled or am I jumping to an ilogical conclusion?
Sincerely,
Jas
Doma...re ETS option...Are you thinking that some sort of bundling deal has been struck? If you go to Dell's web site...Wave is still mentioned anywhere they talk about TPMs
http://support.dell.com/support/topics/global.aspx/support/kb/en/document?dn=1092811&c=us&l=...
Sincerely,
Jas
Rick...re shares outstanding....I'm being very loose on the number of shares to account for the employees option program/warrents/etc. Hopefully....the total number of shares outstanding never gets to those levels...Additionally...the dollars generated per seat by Wave is also a conservative estimate as was pointed out by Doma. But all this is simply wild conjecture....lets get by the FIRST million dollar quarter....first!!
Sincerely,
Jas
Allshore10....re Dutton...Well...what can I say...they are the EXPERTS...and I'm just an individual investor. All I can say is that unlike in the past...there appears to be something brewing behind that famous curtain. In order for Wave to have any chance of eventual success, a trusted infrastructure needs to be in place. I believe that we are witnessing the very beginning of that process.
1) We need to see the proliferation of TPMs. Intel/STM/Atmel/Dell/HP/IBM/and now Gateway.(for a complete list...please refer to TM's matrix of TPMs) Of these...the most important clue that TPMs will become standard equipment in the not too distant future is Dell. I remember talking to Wave a while(years) ago about Dell and their response was something to the effect that Dell was not going to jump and adopt a new technology until it appeared that it was going to be widely adopted.
2) We can have the greatest technology in the world...but unless there is some demand for it...we will not succeed. I sincerely believe that security has FINALLY come into the forefront. The clearest example of this is the number of companies that are now including TPM technology. SKS said it the best YEARS ago when he told us to follow the supply chain.I think we are seeing the supply chain gearing up...FINALLY!!
3) Financing....I was part of that crowd that was convinced that the new round of financing would have taken place by the end of June. There was no doubt in my mind. Obviously...I was CLUELESS! The longer we go without financing...the more bullish I'm becoming regarding the speed at which we could see a ramp-up in revenues.
4) CC...the next CC wil be interesting to say the least. I really hope that SKS will be able to provide us with some sort of guidence...if not on revenues...then at least upon the rate of upgrading for their initial enterprise/govt. clients.
Sincerely,
Jas
Doma...re revenues...You're correct...I did not include revenues from that area on purpose....I simply concentrated on the sale of the basic optional software...I figured it would be easier to disuss revenue numbers if I kept it simple. However, you are correct...the KTMs could and will dramatically effect the bottom line.
Sincerely,
Jas
Dig...re revenues
Thanks for your reply. I guess I'm coming from the camp that believes that one of the major considerations for the enterprise/govt clients is security. Since IBM sold its PC division...Dell has made a huge push into the govt. sector. The simple fact that DELL finally came on board with TPMs tells me that they believe that TPMs will in the near future be considered a standard item. What we don't know yet is the percentage of units that will be activated. My belief is that paying an extra 10-20 dolars for the TPM and another 20-30 dollars for the software are not HUGE considerations to the IT department IF it translates into future savings that increased security provides. We will know which side of the fence the IT depts will position themselves over the next couple of quarters.
Sincerely,
Jas
Dig...re Share price....Most of the initial sales will be in the enterprise/govt. arenas. We have initial volumes from STM of over one million. Once again...most of that volume is going to enterprise/govt (IMHO). The revenue generated from the initial chip vendors ranges anywhere from a few pennies to close to a dollar. My personal guess is somewhere between 5-25 cents...but that is simply my personal guess. Obviously, most of Waves future revenue will be generated when the optional Wave software is purchased. Lets assume that Wave will garner 10 dollars/software sale.....I know that some believe it will be higher than that figure...but for discussion sake...lets be conservative. (no...I don't have anything against my democratic friends ) Can we crunch out some possible numbers:(only regarding TPMs on PC/laptops)
1) # of TPMs sold over next year...~40 million ( I believe that a large number of these will be bought by enerprise/govt)
2) % of TPMs sold that will purchase the optional software. If you were buying the optional TPMs...WHY would you NOT purchase the optional Wave Software? Therefore...I believe that the initial rate of software purchases could be as high...if not higher than 50%.
So...we have roughly 20 million potential seats bringing in roughly 200 million dollars.(20 million seats X 10 dollar/seat)
If one were to say that our quarterly burn rate increases from 4.5 million to 10 million....our gross earnings translates to ~160 million dollars. Now...say that there are 150 million shares outstanding( I know that currently there are ~88-100 million shares outstanding) That gives us a earnings/share of over 1 dollar/share. If the market gives us a PE of 20...that gives us a stock price of 20....If the market gives us a PE of 40...that brings us to a share price of 40....well you get the picture. That is what I personally believe we will see unfold over the next 12 months.
Remember...the above numbers do NOT take into account potential revenue from Sign on line or WaveXpress
Sincerely,
Jas
Trustco....Since your reply to my post was deleted....let's try this again....You charged that manipulation was responsible for the share price going over a dollar. Then in a reply to Tony...you stated that others should answer who manipulated. Are we to gather from this that you simply throw mud at the wall and wait to see what will stick? How on earth can a reasonable person make charges without being able to substantiate them?
Sincerely or not,
Jas
Trustco...re manipulation....Whom exactly are you thinking is responsible for the manipulation? Are you implying management had something to do with it?
Jas
Trustco...."Now what is going to holdthe price over a buck for 5 more?" What exactly do you think caused us to get over a buck in the first place?
Sincerely,
Jas
CMF/Paul...re recent buying...I agree that this is NOT from wavoids. On the day that the STM news first came out...we on the thread were made aware of it hours before Wave officially put out a pr. On that day....prior to the release of the official pr...volume was very low given the importance of the news. I concluded that Wavoids as a GROUP have very little dry powder left. FWIW....
Sincerely,
Jas
re Dell's campaign...If Dells initial TPM marketing segment will be the Enterprise and Govt. sectors....how much of a campaign will WE see on the consumer side...ie TV ads etc...In other words....could the campign already be under way with their Enterprise/Govt. clients?
Sincerely,
Jas
Thig...re Dutton...Where's the deception???
Sincerely,
Jas
OT..Flyer...re CT scan....The new CT scans can detect the presence of Coronary disease...but they can't sustitute for a cardiac cath....When we take patients in for open hearts....we need to have the cath films...ct scans will not suffice...fwiw
Sincerely,
Jas
Trustco and company...re TPMs
I had decided not to participate on this or anyother thread until there was some sigificant event to talk about. But all the whinning recently about what came out of WINHEC is somewhat interesting to say the least. For those of us with dry powder...this has been a time to add to our positions....for those who have been dumping...ask yourselves something:
1) Who..or what segment is Wave targeting? People keep talking about the runway being extended....but is this segment waiting for TPM adoption?
2) Regarding the above menitoned segment...which pc OEM has the largest slice of that segment? This OEM is also shooting for a segment that another company used to own....WHY WOULD THEY BE SO INTERESTED IN WORKING WITH WAVE???
I'm not here to stop all you people from selling your shares....to be honest....the more you people sell...the more shares I will accumulate. Just use some logic at this time...it may save you from a big mistake IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
ASISEEIT...re Unions...Why are the Unions fighting the recs.?
Sincerely,
Jas
Weby...re DD/possible Bluefang and him NEVER posting DD....Have you forgotten his post back in 1997 when he and Plympton had the meeting with SKS and the information he brought back to the SI thread....)) Hope you're doing well.
Sincerely,
Jas
DD...re todays action....recently...there were a few trader rags that mentioned WAVX as a buy...but placed their sell points around 1.11-1.13....if the shares dropped to those levels. I think we are seeing the effects of that plan...imho The GOOD news is that the shares are being absorbed...and will provide us with additional fuel for the next leg.
Sincerely,
Jas
Good afternoon Doma..re Q4 revenues....I agree with you regarding the potential sources for the increase in revenues. The only point I was attempting to make is that none of us know WHEN the company will be able to recognize the revenues. From where I'm sitting..the more important parameter to pay attention to imho is the figure attached to signed contracts that may or may not be able to be recognized in Q4. I have NEVER been more bullish regarding our prospects.....FWIW.
Sincerely,
Jas
LD...re Q4 revenue projections...I'm not sure I understand how some people are coming up with their figures. Q3...we were under 50K...we were told that we would be receiving `380K prior to the end of the year....but they MAY NOT be able to declare them as revenue for the 4th quarter. We have been told about the 80k contract that we received recently from the US Army...but the revenue would be collected sometime over thirty days...that puts it into Q1...Is it possible that we will receive license revenues for potential tpm deployments...yes...but I find some of the estimates to be without merit from what we know at this time...IMHO If I were to guess...and that's all this is...I would say that we will generate something between 75-125K. What I would be MORE interested in would be what management has to say about Wave gaining more traction...One way is for them to have booked more contracts that they announced during the last CC.
Sincerely,
Jas
Larry...re mid quarter update....Wave actually did something like this back in Dec. 1997 after they signed the FIRST IBM contract...fwiw If you go back to the Silicon Investor...you will find notes from that CC.
Sincerely,
Jas