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Bull, your right!
mschere, The Tantivy aquisition will certainly add another dimension to IDCC's position in negotiating for 3G royalties. If manufacturers like NOK don't agree to licensing, IDCC can potentially give an advantage a competitor such as ERICY. I know that there has been wholesale infringement of IDCC's IPR up until now but wouldn't it be even more blatent if a company were to utilize an invention as opposed to proprietary software? The software could be rewritten to accomplish the same thing and so it might take an "expert" or a "special master" in court to determine whether there was infringement. On the other hand a "smart antenna" that has a defined function might not be so easily stolen. Since it's function does require software, it also might be value added to the relationship with Infinion as well as giving the jointly developed chips more value. Because of the added range it gives to wireless LANS over present technology it also seems like it helps fill in the picture along with FDD and TDD. It would be compementary and available all through the same licensing agreement. I wonder if NOK was aware of this aquisition before it happened?
sjratty, I noticed on Friday that the chaiken money flow began to reverse around the time that the Tantivy deal showed up on the board and gained strength all day. That continued today as the price rose off of the lows of Friday. If I were to guess, I'd say that a lot of the buying is short covering along with a lot of the sellers that got stopped out or just sold out on the way down, buying back in.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=idcc,uu[m,a]jaclyyay[d5][pb50!b200!c20!f][vc60][iub14!la...
Danny, good post.
I know it's been touched on before but I believe that you have isolated the crux of the current situation w/NOK. BINDING arbitration leaves NOK no real negotiation room for lowering the royalty rate. The only way out is through a lawsuit that nulifies IDCC's stranglehold. If it doesn't work out for NOK, then they will probably have no furthar options. NOK has nothing to loose by attempting this strategy other than angering some individual IDCC shareholders. The market will forget this incident one way or another after it's over IMO. NOK attempted to avoid paying QCOM but when they figured they had no way out, they finally renewed their licence.
I seem to recall that NOK attempted to play hardball with QCOM before they finally and suddenly upgraded their contract. Is this something of a replay with what they think is a weaker opponent?
linedrivehitter, Man that's neat. I've been wanting to attach a face to each of the posters. Can you tell me which one is Loop? Data? rmarchma? and yourself? TIA
linedrivehitter,
The picture accompanying your last post cracked me up. That was surely a forlorn looking group. Very appropriate for how recent events have many feeling. LOL
GE_Jim, I've been traveling on business and my laptop was ill so I just got back and caught your response to me. Thanks. Appreciate your comments.
Thanks Data. EOM
GE-Jim, I'd be interested to know what your thoughts are after todays action, news and comments.
Over 7M shares (more than the day of the announcement of the ERICY settlement) trading with the price regaining nearly a dollar is a very positive sign.
H42, your correct. Actual wording of the release is as follows:
"Nokia is seeking a determination that it has no royalty obligations to ITC based upon ITC's licensing of Ericsson and Sony Ericsson."
jai, you surely could be right. There are a lot of positives and there are more things that could affect the price positively. My ideas on the price being sluggish for a while are for a relatively short period. (perhaps a few months or more)
Considering the NAZ though, it's the very fact that it's had such a good run that I'm expecting something of a pullback or at least some sideways action for a while. There's a lot of uncertainty over the economy still. I'll be surprised top see it continue to run up through the rest of the summer and then continue that run in the fall. (the traditional strong months for the market historically) Just my humble opinion though.
Concerning 3G, I agree that the move toward 3G bodes well for IDCC. However, it is the very fact that NOK is trying to limit 3G rates that I believe will slow down 3G contracts with the other manufacturers. I expect that the other manufacturers will be hesitant; not wanting to leave too much on the table. Don't get me wrong, I do believe IDCC will get paid. I simply see this as something that very well could continue to prevent IDCC from getting the respect they need to get the rates they, and we, feel they deserve.
There is one thing that will mean more than anything else though and that is how the institutions feel about this. If they do feel it a buying opportunity, then we should see signs of accumulation. I just don't think they are going to feel as though time is pressuring them like they might have before yesterdays announcement. Before the announcement, I believe most here felt that even though arbitration might occur, we wouldn't expect more than maybe 6 months for resolution. With NOK attempting additional delay tactics and wording that even challenges whether the ERICY settlement was the trigger to set their rate, I think that any confidence that the delay will be short will be somewhat undermined.
wilco24, hopefully, you bought in the $4-$7 range and are enjoying a profit. Also, who knows, it might be a very timely sell allowing to to get back in with more shares at a lower peice. Good luck!
I agree spider. Right now, despite the fact that the stock is at a discount, there isn't anything to put any upward pressure on the price other than the fear that one might not get in on the bargain. Too much uncertainty for that IMO. There is however excellent volume holding up the price today so hopefully we won't see much more of a drop and maybe it will even climb up a little more.
Infinite-q, thanks for the clarification. Good points
jmspaesq, I'm not a lawyer but I've been following your reasoning and understand your point. I've got a question though. I'm wondering how NOK could end up paying more that ERICY even if the ERICY wasn't the triggering event.(something that doesn't seem likely since NOK has called for binding arbitration now) I thought that because of the MFL agreement, NOK would pay the lowest rate that any licencee payed. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Data, I was under the impression that the implication was that Judge Lynn hurt us with the patent removal speculation not Judge Sanders. I apologise. Could someone provide a link back to that information? Thanks.
jmspaesq, I expect your right. My view is not whether this is a good investment but rather trying to determine when is the best time time to aquire more. The very positive report from Tom Carpenter is surely a positive force. He seems to have had excellent insight into what's going on up until now. The traders and possibly some more short action may continue to weigh on the price during a delay period. This latest developement will probably have the effect of delaying NOK's ultimate paying and that delay will certainly tend to diffuse upward price pressure. We will know more after the conference call. Another rollercoaster ride may be in store with rises and falls coinciding with each shot fired by IDCC and NOK. One things for sure; it's going to be interesting. There's going to be a lot more posts to read each day too.
infinite_q, Wow, that's some broad reaching speculation! I was under the impression that the paneth patent was still the cornerstone of IDCC's case even though there were many others that played a major role. Would the judge remove something like that after so many years of back and forth waiting for trial? It seems that would be a very bold move for a judge who had not spent a lot of time on the case and which would deny IDCC their day in court for such an important issue; one that had extremely far reaching implications. Mind you, I'm not challenging what you project but rather am interested in knowing whether you have some basis for such a thought. I'm very interested in anything more you might have on this that I may have missed before. Thanks.
ebelong, you can't be sure what's going on regarding todays support. The buying today could be as simple as shorts taking their profit as they wait for the results of the conference call. Likewise, the selling could be partly some institutional selling into short covering in order to reduce their exposure while they wait to see which way this thing goes. Personally, based on what I have seen up until now, I don't believe NOK be able to wiggle out of this one. However, the price action may end up more like it was before the settlement as there is going to be a lot of speculation until this gets sorted out. I do believe that GE-Jim was correct in that it will be a very good time for the traders. (at least the good ones that is)
eryx, I sure am glad you posted that link. I had seen an article before on this newly discovered technology and then later when I went looking for it again, I couldn't find the link. This truely looks like an exciting breakthrough and the impact will be enormous in many ways if it turns out to be viable. Thanks!
Thannks Bill,
Right now, that breakout is looking a little iffy though a retest is common. If it fails, I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop of a dollar or two and then some sideways movement. If the line holds as support for a few days, I believe we will see it a a new bottom barring something seriously negative
Ease up teecee my man. I'm not trying to pizz anybody off. There's a lot of people I respect here, yourself included. There are many and varied skills to be observed on this board and I feel I get greater insight into both IDCC and the market overall from what I gleen from the many post. GE-Jim is just one of them. (He is on my list of favorites) I had looked over his post and missed any referance to his getting out again. Again though, I'm just discussing things as I don't mean to contrary. Sorry If I haven't made myself clear.
mchere, I remember reading where some of the hindsight analyst commented, after the decline of the last several years, that when the market was really rolling, it was not uncommon for stock tips to be coming from everywhere,(the article specifically mentions cab-drivers). The gist of the article was that we should have known when bullishness reached that level, it should have been a contrarian indicator that a fall was about to occur. Food for thought! LOL
Seriously though, I have a cousin that is a physician who treated Micheal Dell in his very early days. Dell told him to buy as much Dell as he could. He did so and later made millions. It's not inconcievable that a cabby could get similar tips. (You'd have to wonder why he was still driving for living if his tips had been so good though maybe, just maybe, he has gotton rich but doesn't want to give up his source of news). LOL
Incidently, thanks for all the valuable content you provide here.
spider69, I'm with you there brother! I am not near good enough and certainly don't have the time to watch this thing and so I simply depend on my belief that I'm in a stock that is going to ULTIMATELY give me an excellant return. I do believe in TA though and, from my observations, GE-Jim is quite skilled at it and has used it to his advantage. Where I use TA to plan entry and exits, he has used it to trade, by all appearances, very successfully. I wish I was as good.
lochnroll, you may be right but if you look at the days that he claims to have made his moves, they were either on or the day after the stock made the turn. teecees right in that GE-Jim said he started selling in the $25's but that still looks like a good move if he got back in below $23. Obviously he was watching several technical indicators that told him to take profit. Hindsight is 20/20, but from what I can see, GE-Jim made his call RIGHT AFTER the price movement, not long after. Look back at his post and note the price action for that period. Good luck on your prediction on the All-Star game! I'd be afraid to make that call. LOL
IMO, todays action is a result of building pressure. We've been consolidating for a few weeks and we now appear to have a technical breakout of a bullish wedge as we've overcome resistance at around $25.50. The combination of positive coverage both from analyst and local residents like rmarchma, mchere and Bill D's wireless ledger showing what we have look forward to, along with yesterdays very positive news from Intel, gave it the push it needed. (appologies to all the others who have contributed. No slight intended.) I personally don't see it going below that, now support level, again unless there is significant bad news or a reversal of the NAZ.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=idcc,uu[m,a]daclyyay[da][pb50!b200!c20][vc60][iub14!la12...
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teecee and spider,
I don't know for sure what GE-Jim has been doing, but in the last posts that he mentioned whether he was buying or selling were on 6/23 and 6/25 where he said he was back in at below $22.50. If he has not sold he is up over $3.50 since. He claimed to have sold back when the stock was over $27.. If that's true he's ahead of everyone who's held during that time by over $4 or better than 15%. I've held during that time. Like it or not, GE-Jim knows what he's doing. I remember when in December of last year the stock hit 19.50, GE-Jim said it had topped and he sold. The stock did not start heading back up until it bottomed at $11.50. Maybe he's not really doing what he says, if your correct in your suspicions, but he sure has been good at calling highs and lows. IMO he's worth listening to.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1132756
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1132756
Good post Micky! EOM
bulldzr, You can put me in the "agree" column. EOM
The election of Price Waterhouse is surely an interesting developemnt.
bulldzr, Looking forward to meeting you in Houston and having a drink as well. Maybe I can find a way to show up at Bonnies at one of those get togethers. That sure is getting to be sort of a high profile (prestigious) meeting it seems (movers and shakers and the like). I might even become famous like the rest of you guys. Who knows!
I resemble that statement! LOL
Art my friend, I am truely sorry if my post made you ill as that was not my intent. I also must admit that I'm not sure what "two dozen" I might be included in. I have missed some postings as I've been too busy to keep up with all the post. Have been scanning the post lists and clicking on just enough to try and keep a feel for what been going on. However, if you're talking about the recent PR about a "shareholder revolt" concerning options, I can assure you that I have had no part nor knowledge about that event.
As you know, I have always enjoyed your posts and views. I hope I get the chance to meet you in Houston and if I do, I plan on buying you a drink or two. If you decide that you don't want to be friends, I will respect your decision but I hope you don't feel that way when we meet. I have many friends that I don't see eye to eye on all issues. The reason, is that I am not too proud to recognize that I am not always right and even when I think I am, I also recognise that everyone else has a right to their opinion. Good luck!
Ronny, It find it facinating how message boards bring out a personality in people that they would not ordinarily display in regular daily interaction with other people. (Of course, I have also considered that much of my perception is partially a result of the fact that I don't have the benefit of seeing body language and other non-verbal communication signals when I form my opinions) You certainly don't deserve the abuse you've received from some though.
This board is seriously divided over the different opinions about managements performance. Prior to your meeting with the institutional investor groups several months back, many here complained about the lack of transparancy from IR and the difficulty in evaluating ones' investment in IDCC. You were one of the few that consistently formulated pertinent and concise questions that were based on the discussions here on this board. You then called IDCC and attempted to the best of your ability to get answers to those questions. You unselfishly reported the answers back to this board without editorializing them, which allowed all to formulate their own opinions. When IR asked that you refrain from posting the answers to your queries, you complied, in an effort to be fair to them and whatever their reasons for secrecy were. Additionally, your accounting analysis of financial records and releases from IDCC have for years helped the majority here better evaluate their position. Your contributions here run deep.
It appears that many are willing to overlook that point because they, utilizing the clarity of hindsight vision, disagree with you on one point. You apparently decided that, in order to feel secure with your investment in IDCC, you would discuss the unanswered questions with institutions that also had positions with IDCC. Regardless of whether some of the members of this board agree with you on that decision, it is your right as an individual investor to conduct DD into your investment. It is also apparent that once you engaged in the conversations concerning your questions, the institutions found those questions compelling; so much so that they requested a meeting with IDCC to discuss them. IDCC's refusal to that request resulted in at least one institution selling it's holding in IDCC. You have been critisized for that. However, if your efforts had borne a different fruit, the members of this board that have critisized you might instead be praising you. If your efforts had in fact resulted in a light shedding meeting and had resulted in giving us as investors a clearer view of the future of IDCC,(the goal of your meetings) the perception would likely be more like that which resulted when the Texas trio researched the courthouse records prior to the ERICY settlement. Everyone would have praised your efforts and you would be hailed as a hero. This is a fickle bunch though.
I too feel that in order to qualify as an investor, as opposed to being a gambler, my finacial decisions should be based on facts. In the absence of facts, a stockholder is left only with hopes, wishes and prayers. If you're counting on hopes and wishes, you're not likely to last long in the stock market. I'm personally saving the request for Divine Intervention for radically more important issues. (Don't figure I deserve a whole lot of favors)
Ronny, I appreciate your efforts here. Those that don't, are IMO, forgetful and shortsighted. Hang in there.
Art my friend, I am part of only one poster. Me. I don't know anything about 12 posters or todays press release either (if that is what you are talking about). It was only about an hour ago that I even found a copy of the press release in question. I also am not trying to get into any kind of dispute with anyone here. If I seems like I'm trying to defend Ronny, it's only in response to the manner that BSWaves addresses him and others he "communicates" with. In any case, I hope we all get rich with IDCC. I especially hope that you fare well because if anyone has been a loyal defender of IDCC, you certainly have. Hang in there buddy! If I ever get up to your neck of the woods there in Tenn., I'd like to catch up, find some good BBQ, and knock the bottom out of a few good shots of shine. If not, hope we get to meet in Houston!
L2V, Good Post.
BSWaves. You're right on a couple of points. Ronny is perfectly capable and from my perspective, seems to be doing a fine job of countering your points. And yes, I do see a pattern. It's the pattern I alluded to in my last post.
You may be right. It may be too suble for me to grasp. However, your form of communication may be creating some of my problem. You see, whenever I read one of your post, I seeem to get caught up in the snide comments, the insults towards the one you are addressing, your ridicule, the "LOL" that you splash throughout your post. It causes me to wonder. If you've got a solid argument that stands on it's own, why do you have to include the rest. If you don't mind, I'm going to make a suggestion that I think might be helpful to you. There is a book by an author named Dale Carnegie entitled "How to Win Friends and Influence People". It is excellent and deals with the very subject I am talking about. I believe if you will employ some of the techniques that you will find there, you might not have so many having trouble grasping your message. Think about it and good luck!
BSWaves, you crack me up. Your lame attempt to discredit Ronny's reply to you is obvious to anyone who would read the thread. He gave you a direct response to a statement you made that was wrong. He cited the source, which was the proxy, that clearly stated the numbers to show you were wrong. Your laughable response was to accuse him of twisting the numbers. You end up by changing the subject in order to get out of the argument that YOU first brought up.
You have consistantly challenged the credibility of quite a few that have tried to engage you in a resonable discussion. Regardless of whether management should recieve additional otions or not, IMO it's your credibility that shrinks with every post you make. Now that's not an attack but rather an observation of fact.