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farooq & tubberclare, welcome to the thread...
agree--what do you think about EFA?
AnderL,
You have the situation analyzed and have a viable plan. Thanks for the comprehensive info...
TTT--14 Oct 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Allocate 25% to I Fund if EFA is > $56.59. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 100%.
AnderL,
I'll be surprized if it gets above 1551 since much resistance shows in this area.
Agree a short, short-term bounce appears to be in the cards. Right now I'm not going to play the long side unless the up bounce has heavy volume.
XEC at Short-Term Bottom
The risk/reward ratio seems to favor the bulls now. I exited my short today when it bounced off its 200-day SMA and CMF didn't confirm the down action. Will go long on Friday a.m.
so far waiting...
alanfl,
Sorry I wasn't clear. ADX
U.S. Stock Market Update by Robert Colby
posted Wednesday, October 12, 2005,
at 6:45 p.m. EST
A Bad Break
On Wednesday, the stock market again tried to rally after the open, but the rally didn’t last 20 minutes. The S&P 500 Index fell 7.19 (0.61%) to 1,177.68. The S&P broke below the following support levels:
1,181.92, low of 10/6/2005
1,175 to 1,179, early May resistance
1,173.80, low of 5/18/2005
By breaking and closing below 1,181.92, the S&P 500 is under its 1 x 2 weekly Gann Angle rising from the important low of 1,060.72 set on 8/13/2004. That might prove to be critical, in my interpretation. It seems to suggest greater (possibly much greater) downside risk. A full test of the April low seems quite possible.
The Nasdaq Composite fell more, down 23.62 (1.15%) to 2,037.47, a new 5-month low. The Nasdaq has been underperforming recently, and that tends to be Bearish for the general market.
Breadth and volume ratios again confirmed a Bearish trend.
The S&P and DJIA also have broken their ordinary uptrendlines rising from bottoms set in August and October 2004. Why is that important? Because the rise over the past year or so appears to be Wave 5, the final upwave in the Bullish market recovery that started in 2002, according to my interpretation of Elliott Wave Theory. If Wave 5 is over, as seems likely to me, then this is a Bear Market.
Support Breaks As the Market Falls
FOR WEEKS, GETTING TECHNICAL has been chronicling the market's slow deterioration.
We've been watching as volume (enthusiasm) faded, momentum disappeared, market leadership evaporated and trends rolled over.
This week, the bears got yet another piece of the technical puzzle to fall their way as giant wedge formations in the Standard & Poor's 500 and the large-cap-biased Wilshire 5000 have made tentative breakdowns (see Chart 1).
CHART 1
Wedges are normally bearish patterns where the market makes higher highs and higher lows, but the lows are rising a lot faster than the highs. In other words, each successive rally attempt gets smaller as bulls take profits sooner because of waning conviction and the bears jump into short positions sooner because of increasing conviction. We also can see confirmation of this shift in psychology as momentum indicators set lower peaks at each new price high.
That's the recipe for a market reversal, and all that is needed is for the wedge's lower border to break to the down side. On an intraweek basis, that break has occurred in the big stocks. It is not a conclusive "head for the hills" sell signal on its own just yet, but when combined with all the other technical evidence that has been piling up since July, it begs for investor attention.
What makes this more intriguing and more dangerous is that investors are shrugging off the daily breakdowns in sector after sector. There are many indicators in the chart watcher's bag of tricks that bear this out, but two in particular now stand out to this analyst.
The first is the often misconstrued Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) in its various flavors (see Chart 2). This index, dubbed the "fear index" for its propensity to spike when investors are panicking, has risen significantly in percentage terms since the current stock market swoon began October 3, but in the big picture it's still in a declining trend.
CHART 2
The VIX is very good at spotting major market bottoms when it spikes to extreme high levels. But it isn't quite as good at spotting tops when it's low. "How low is low?" is often unanswerable, so the real signal comes when this index is low but rising. In other words, when the trend in the indicator turns around and fear starts to creep into the market, watch out.
So far, the VIX hasn't broken its declining trend. Certainly, there are other more sophisticated methods to measure a topping market based on the VIX, such as breakouts from trading bands or moving-average crossovers. But if simpler is better, then the naked eye can do the job. Right now, the trend remains down.
That would be more of a bullish argument, however, if all of this weren't happening while prices are falling and sectors are actually breaking down. Witness the new 52-week low in the banking sector (see Getting Technical, "Bank Stocks Are Mired in Quicksand," October 3) and the devastation this week in the semiconductors (see Getting Technical, "Chipping Away at Chip Stocks," October 10). The market is very fragile now, yet investors have taken very little heed of the warning, as reflected in the VIX's modest rise in absolute terms.
Another indicator that shows business as usual for investors is the Arms Index, a.k.a the Trin (see Chart 3). Again, it is more useful in finding bottoms than tops, but nonetheless you can glean plenty of information from a simple moving average of its closing values.
CHART 3
The Arms index measures how much volume is going to stocks that are rising each day vs. how much is going to stocks that are falling. If the bulls are in charge, then the Arms reading will be below one.
If the bears are more aggressive on any given day, then the reading will be above one. When the reading spikes above two, we know that selling pressures were intense.
Many analysts look at a ten-day moving average of the index to smooth out the pattern and expand the analysis to more than just the events of a single day.
If the index stays high for a number of days, the moving average will also move higher, and when it spikes to an extreme, we can presume that the selling was so intense it was washed out of the market. That sets up a bottom.
Today's ten-day average shows only a minimal rise, and like the VIX, the trend in the average itself is still declining. So, no fear and presumably no hedging of long positions.
If and when the breakdowns in the remaining major stock market indexes occur, the rush for the exits could trample investors. Nobody seems to be preparing for the possibility that a major decline is coming -- there's no wall of worry -- and that is also bearish.
It may cost a little to protect a portfolio by diversifying into gold, money market funds and protective put options. But if the market does fall, then a little insurance will go a long way. Call it the price of sleeping at night.
Hints that a Tradeable Long Rally is Near:
1) $NAMO in presignal buy area outside of lower Bollinger Band and lower limit for being oversold.
2) $NASI almost in a presignal buy area as it's approaching RSI 30.
3) Downward slop for the price decline is too steep to sustain. Also -DI pressure is the highest in a year corroborating to far downside action to fast.
If we can close greater than 200-day SMA on decisive volume, then I plan to go long for a short-term bounce back to resistance.
Good luck with your options...
Hello Gizmo,
Check out RSI (6) when the ADX is less than 20 or greater than 20 but trending downward. Done a good job on the daily charts.
TTT--13 Oct 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Allocate 50% to F Fund if TLT is > $91.99. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Allocate 50% to I Fund if EFA is > $57.22. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 100%.
W@G2 QQQQ 10/12/05 for a 10/14/05 close~
38.75 rayrohn
38.29 frenchee
QQQQ Support & Resistance Levels for 12 Oct 05
Resistance 38.29 (130-day EMA and prior lows of 38.24 and 38.26)
Support 37.91 (38.2% retracement from May low to Aug high)
Support 37.22 (50% retracement)
Support 36.53 (61.8% retracement and close to low in July)
TTT--12 Oct 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Allocate 50% to F Fund if TLT is > $92.13. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Allocate 50% to I Fund if EFA is > $57.25. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 100%.
Good post nlightn--thanks...
Oil--56.50 Next?
OT:Investing in Exchange-Traded Funds: Big Tax Benefits
David W. Cowles, CPA, CFP
Mosaic Financial Partners
he use of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is soaring. Just five years ago, there were only about 35 ETFs. Now, there are more than 300, representing many types of securities, so investors can put together a diversified portfolio of ETFs. Or ETFs may be used to fill out a portfolio that includes other more traditional investments.
While there are several reasons for their increasing popularity, including low expense ratios, tax benefits are among the advantages of ETFs that are most prized by investors.
ETFs hold a number of different securities, providing diversification. Unlike mutual funds, though, ETFs trade on exchanges like stocks. An ETF will have an initial public offering of shares and perhaps some secondary offerings. Subsequently, those shares trade among investors through brokers, rather than with the fund company.
Each ETF is designed to track a particular index. It might be a stock market index, such as the S&P 500, or a less familiar index tracking intermediate-term bonds, or an assortment of real estate securities, for example.
Taming Turnover
Like index funds, ETFs are naturally tax efficient.
Key: An ETF generally holds the stocks or bonds that make up a particular index. The components of indexes rarely change. Thus, ETFs seldom sell securities. They're true buy-and-hold vehicles.
Advantage: Unlike mutual funds, ETFs usually do not have trading gains. In some years, trading gains have created huge tax headaches for mutual fund investors, but ETF holders have not had this problem.
Example: You invest in a successful mutual fund. A month later, the manager decides to take profits on oil stocks and move into utilities.
Your share of the oil-stock profits will be passed through to you, even though you were not a shareholder while those profits were made. Some of these profits may be short-term gains, taxed at steep ordinary income rates.
Moreover, you will owe tax currently even if you reinvest the capital gain distribution as most investors do.
Trap: This unpleasant scenario can be especially hard to take when the stock market turns down. In a bad market, mutual fund investors often redeem shares, forcing managers to liquidate appreciated holdings to raise cash.
Example: Janus Fund lost nearly 15% in 2000, the year the tech-stock bubble burst. Yet investors had to pay tax on nearly $4 per share in capital gains distributions at a time when the fund's share price was around $35.
This experience was by no means unique. Many funds had larger losses and made larger distributions of taxable gains.
Bottom line: When you invest in a low-turnover, index-tracking ETF, you avoid this type of tax trouble.
Special Treatment
Certain mutual funds offer low turnover and tax efficiency, too. Indeed, there are many index mutual funds from which to choose.
Even when compared with index mutual funds, though, ETFs offer tax advantages.
Key: When they alter their portfolios due to a change in the underlying index, ETFs do not sell the securities they hold. Instead, they make "in-kind redemptions." These transactions involve large blocks of shares that are transferred among arbitragers, specialists, and market makers.
Loophole: Under the Internal Revenue Code, in-kind redemptions do not generate taxable gains to a fund. That's true even if the securities transferred by the fund have appreciated in value.
Another Benefit
Similarly, a rash of sales won't affect investors in an ETF as much as redemptions might hurt those in an index mutual fund.
Example: Vanguard REIT Index Fund (a real estate investment trust mutual fund) currently has unrealized capital gains equal to 30% of its value. If investor interest in real estate stocks suddenly plummets and there are massive shareholder redemptions, this fund would have to sell stocks, realizing taxable gains.
These gains would then be distributed to all remaining shareholders, even those who didn't sell shares.
The difference: If, instead of a mutual fund, you held an ETF that invests in REITs, such as streetTRACKS's Wilshire REIT Index Fund (AMEX:RWR), any shareholder selling would not cause capital gain distributions because there would be no change to the underlying stocks held in the portfolio.
Only the selling shareholders might incur capital gains. The continuing shareholders of this ETF would not owe taxes because of other shareholders' transactions.
Bottom line: Many ETFs have been on the market for years without ever having to make a taxable capital gains distribution to shareholders.
Cleaning Up
The tax advantages of ETFs go beyond the avoidance of unwanted capital gains distributions.
One popular strategy among savvy investors is "loss harvesting." When a stock or fund drops in value, a capital loss can be taken.
Advantage: Realized capital losses can offset capital gains, present or future, essentially making gains tax free.
Trap: Once a loss has been taken, the same security can't be repurchased during the next 30 days.
That's where an ETF can be used. An ETF can serve as a replacement for the security that you have sold, long or short term.
Example: You hold shares in a leading pharmaceutical company. A highly publicized study raises doubts about one of its drugs, sending the stock price down.
Now you have a large paper loss on that stock -- but you have not lost faith in the stock or the drug sector as a good holding.
Strategy: Sell the drug stock to realize a capital loss for tax purposes. You can't buy back the stock immediately, but you can buy an ETF such as Pharmaceutical HOLDRS (AMEX:PPH), which owns major drug companies.
Such a sale and purchase does not violate the wash-sale rules and won't jeopardize your tax loss.
Outcome: If you wish, after 30 days you can repurchase the drug stock you've sold. By then, the wash-sale rules don't apply.
If the stock has rebounded during your 30-day "time-out," you will pick up at least some of the gain through holding the ETF.
Related strategy: You can buy an ETF immediately after taking a loss on a similar mutual fund, without triggering a wash sale.
In addition, you can take a loss on one ETF and buy another right away, even if the replacement is in the same asset class.
Example: Let's say that large-cap stocks lose ground this year, so your holding of iShares S&P 500 Index (AMEX:IVV), a large-cap ETF, is underwater. You can take a tax loss and immediately purchase iShares Russell 1000 Index (AMEX:IWB).
Although these two ETFs are highly correlated, they track different indexes so they're not identical. Selling one and buying the other the same day won't annul your tax loss.
Key: Such tactics are practical because ETFs don't impose redemption fees on investors who buy and sell soon afterward. Such fees are increasingly common among mutual funds.
Caution: While ETF investors avoid redemption fees, they must pay transaction costs on each trade, just as they do when trading stocks. Therefore, you'll probably do best buying and selling ETFs through an ultra-low-cost discount broker.
The Right Account
To take advantage of the tax benefits, ETFs should be held in a taxable account. If you hold ETFs in a tax-deferred retirement account, you'll enjoy other ETF benefits, such as low expenses and easy tradability, but the tax advantages will be wasted. For more information about ETFs, go to www.etfconnect.com, sponsored by Nuveen Investments, and www.morningstar.com.
$NASI Chart Suggesting More Downside Action
Hello Kaja Bear N,
I closed my short last Friday as I'm expecting a rally up to QQQQ's 5-day SMA. Then back down again to, at least, the 200-day SMA.
Good to see ya posting again...
wallabe_short,
Good luck...I'm with ya on Tuesday if TLT is greater than 92.29. I'm wanting to see the 130-day EMA and the Parabolic SAR taken out before I go long.
TTT--11 Oct 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Allocate 50% to F Fund if TLT is > $92.29. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Allocate 50% to I Fund if EFA is > $57.28. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 100%.
Good luck Frank!
frankp3,
Why long the RUT on Tuesday? Looks like a test of the 200-day SMA is in store.
BBH Weekly View
Week 6--SEA
swing man,
Thanks for the update on Mitch and his Web site link.
Mitch and I used to correspond with each other on Raging Bull before he when professional with his service. I still follow his free work on StockCharts.com since he is more right than wrong.
Eddy,
Glad you liked the template. The template I prefer but cannot make visual on I-Hub is the beta from Stockcharts. If you have basic, you can open this link up at http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?symbol=QQQQ&period=DAILY&years=0&months=4&days=0&...
Dr Worm/FA,
Time to buy TLT coming soon...Note the info from Jason Goepfert in the middle of the below article...
Fed Hawks Boost Yields
By JENNIFER ABLAN
THE BOND MARKETS were roiled last week as a Federal Reserve official indicated that the central bank could continue raising interest rates while inflationary pressures appear to be increasing in the U.S. economy and financial markets.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher sent Treasury yields sharply higher Thursday after he warned policy makers cannot "let the inflation virus infect the blood supply and poison the system." On Wednesday, Fisher, a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting Open Market Committee, also said inflation is at the "upper end" of the Fed's comfort zone. That marked a sharp reversal for Fisher, who rattled markets back in June after he said the Fed was in the "eighth inning" of its tightening cycle, implying a peak was near.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note soared six basis points (hundredths of a percentage point) to 4.40% following his remarks on Thursday but settled the day at 4.39%. By Friday, buyers emerged in the wake of higher yields, sending the 10-year's yield down to 4.37%. But the key 10-year yield still ended up from 4.33% the previous week.
The yield on the two-year note, the Treasury coupon issue most sensitive to expectations about moves by the Fed, closed the week at 4.19%, up two basis points on the week, while the existing Treasury long bond, the 5 3/8s of Feb. 15, 2031, settled Friday at 4.57%, unchanged on the week.
The Dow Jones Industrials, meanwhile, were down about 2.62% on the week on Fisher's remarks that short-term interest rates were headed higher.
Investors were stunned by the strong degree of jawboning by Fed members in recent weeks. The week before last, Fed chief Alan Greenspan expressed his continuing concern about housing and financial imbalances.
Marc Seidner, director of domestic taxable fixed income at Standish Mellon Asset Management, says there are "trade-offs" in all the tough talk by Fed members on inflation and asset values. "They are sacrificing economic growth -- and the stock market is telling you that!"
What worries investors like Seidner most is that the Fed's rate hikes and warnings are coming at a time when energy prices are hitting consumers' wallets (for one example, see Review & Preview). In 11 consecutive meetings since June 2004, the Fed has raised the federal-funds rate target, taking it to 3¾% from 1%.
As such, Seidner has been buying the belly of the yield curve, five-year and 10-year Treasuries.
He's not alone in his view. Andy Brenner, head of global fixed-income trading and sales at Investec, has been telling clients to buy bonds. "The continual hawkish statements from the Fed continue," he says. "They were wrong about deflation, and they will be wrong with the magnitude of inflation."
That's a true contrarian stance, which is corroborated by the latest Commitment of Traders report on bond futures. According to Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader.com., the preponderance of short speculative positions relative to longs among commercial hedgers (a.k.a. the "smart money') is among the biggest since October 1987. The mother of all bond rallies ensued after the stock market crashed that month.
There are signs of price pressures, nonetheless. Last week the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and services indexes, both for September, experienced huge jumps. In the factory survey, that index surged to 78 from 62.5 in August, while its nonmanufacturing prices index was 81.4, the highest since the index was launched in 1997, from 67.1 the month before.
Citigroup's chief U.S. economist, Robert DiClemente, observes that the Fed's work is changing to "preempting a more tangible inflation threat" from an unwinding of an unnecessarily accommodative stance. For that reason, he revised his forecast for short rates from a peak of 4% by year end to 4½% in early 2006. He says while a pause at 4% is still possible, there are "emerging risks" on the other side that the move may not stop until 5%. With Fed officials talking tough, the fed-funds futures market is pricing in two more 25-basis-point hikes by year end, to 4¼%.
Perhaps one less worry for investors is that Friday's employment report showed less hurricane-related restraint on payrolls than expected and "no evident weakening" in labor markets outside of the disaster's direct impact, says Peter Kretzmer, economist at Bank of America. Nonfarm payrolls fell only 35,000 in September, about one-fifth the job loss forecast by economists. (For more on last month's employment report, see Economic Beat.)
HUNTING FOR HIGHER YIELDS? Yes, it has been tough to find value in the fixed-income market. But there's one corner of the bond market that is offering income in the double-digits.
Last week billions of New York Stock Exchange-listed General Motors bonds with $25 par values hit fresh lows in price, but also produced yields over 10%. For instance, GM's 7.25% bonds (ticker: GMW), due April 15, 2041, fell to a 52-week low of $16.26 for a yield of 11.25%, while a similar issue, GM's 7.25% (XGM), due June 15, 2041, hit a new low of $16.20, producing a yield of about 11.30%. (Though these issues are listed as preferred stocks, they actually are debt securities.)
Even more compelling are GM's convertibles. It provides substantial downside protection, relative to the common stock, while offering a reasonable amount of upside potential if the giant auto maker eventually recovers from its many problems. The convertible 6.25s due 2033 (GPM) were trading around $19.19 for a yield-to-maturity of 8.422% and a yield-to-put in 2018 of about 9.40%.
All these securities are worth a look. Many have made round trips, from lows to higher prices and then back to fresh lows, since Barron's wrote about them last spring ("Preferred Vehicles," March 28). Compared with other low-rated debt securities, such as emerging-market bonds, GM preferreds look relatively enticing. Even Brazil, still a junk-rated credit, isn't offering yields of 10%, let alone 9%.
The Brazilian component of the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bonds Index Plus has an average spread of around 350 basis points above Treasuries, with a yield of 7.97%. For the Russian component, the average spread is less than 100 basis points, with a yield below 5.50%.
Fitch Ratings recently cut GM's credit rating further into junk status -- to double-B from double-B-plus -- because it doesn't think the company is making significant progress in reducing its costs. The rating agency also cited "the incrementally negative effect" on sales of big sport-utility vehicles and other gas-guzzlers -- GM's core products -- from persistently high fuel prices. GM's woes have been deepened by the heightened financial risks associated with its relationship with Delphi, its key supplier, which was threatening to file for bankruptcy protection as this column went to press.
Yet GM and its financing arm, General Motor Acceptance Corp., have a combined $42 billion in cash and equivalents on their balance sheets, as well as tremendous access to the capital markets through securitization of auto loans. So they're hardly in an immediate bind.
To be sure, General Motors common shares, sporting a 7% yield, are vulnerable to a potential dividend reduction. But the preferreds "can be an interesting way for a retail investor to gain economic exposure to GM debt," says Tad Rivelle, the chief investment officer at Metropolitan West Asset Management.
One of the more attractive bargains is the GM convertible due in 2032 (GXM), offering a current yield of over 4.70%. But the issue has a put option, which lets the investor redeem it in March 2007. Its yield to the put is 8% -- more than double what most money-market funds pay.
For his part, Rivelle, like most institutional investors, is earning his 10% yield on GM by holding onto its institutional corporate bonds. The benchmark 8.375% senior debentures due 2033 were trading late last week around 78.25 (or $782.50 per $1,000 bond), for a yield of about 11%, according to KDP Investment Advisors. And, at 86.25, the 7.125% senior notes due 2013 yielded 9.68%.
"If one is willing is accept the notion that GM will eventually be viewed more favorably in the market, the investor has the prospect of high yields with the possibility of significant capital appreciation," he says. "Long GMs are trading at dollar prices in the low 80s, and hence, while there is some downside risk, we are disinclined to believe that -- in the near term -- GM [debt] would trade below its '$70 low.' Meanwhile, the investor gets to clip coupons."
Adds Rivelle: "I've always been amazed as to why investors have no fear when it comes to buying a large-cap, dividend-paying stock, yet shrink from owning the debt, which, of course, ranks above the stock in the capital structure."
Intermediate-Term Analysis--7 Oct 05
The following analysis used a weekly compression on the chart shown which is descriptive of the intermediate-term trend.
The next price target appears to be between the swing low of late June and the lower Bollinger Band. These targets are 36.55 and 36.81, respectively. The five major reasons I'm bearish for the intermediate term are:
1) The Directional Movement System shows the Negative Directional Indicator is rising and crossed above the Positive Directional Indicator.
2) Price closed this Friday under the 21-week SMA. This implies a price target of the lower Bollinger Band.
3) All momentum-based indicators on a sell signal with the exception of the Chaikin Money Flow indicator which is netural.
4) Volume on down weeks is greater than volume on up weeks. More conviction to the bears and distribution likely happening.
5) This last week showed prices being down and volume being decisive. This pattern suggests the move will have legs.
Bottom Line: Use strength to sell into if long or add to short positions.
TTT--10 Oct 05
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Allocate 50% to F Fund if TLT is > $92.55. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Allocate 50% to I Fund if EFA is > $57.33. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 100%.
W@G1 QQQQ 10/10/05 for a 10/12/05 close~
37.92 frenchee
OT:Mutual Fund Cash Levels vs Dow
TTT--6 Oct 05
TTT Objective & Commentary:
On Wednesday, the C Fund broke down below several significant support levels: including the critical low of 8/30/2005. These bearish signals were confirmed by other major TSP Funds. The C Fund also hit its lowest price level since 7/7/05, the day of the London subway bombing. It appears that the intermediate-term trend may be joining the short-term trend in the Bearish direction--hence the reason I moved to 100% G Fund today. Consequently, no buy signals are possible on 6 Oct 05.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is 100%.
wonderboy,
I'm thinking GOOG is headed back to test its 50-day SMA and/or lower Bollinger Band. Very bearish technical indicators as of 4 Oct 05. If GOOG closes less than 305.60, watch out below!
TTT--5 Oct 05
****Multiple Fund Sell Alert this Issue****
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Sell all shares of C Fund if SPY < $122.50, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell all shares of I Fund if EFA is < $57.39, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Sell all shares of S Fund if $EMW or DWCP < $531.10, move proceeds to G Fund. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
G Fund (Money Market) Current allocation is nil.