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Hi 123tom, I just finished a post for poods concerning charts and emotions, and then read your post for todays price action.
Today was greed, in both directions.
To those, who like most on this board believe MRKR should be/will be soon a $20 or $50 stock - Greed said "buy now at $5.90 and $6.20 because it's been heading up lately (inspiring confidence) and we KNOW it's worth more and is way undervalued."
Greed - they bought.
Why did it go back down? Greed.
A segment of investors (and traders) look at the price increase and say, we KNOW it's not going to straight line up, we KNOW it will come down and either test a recent low or set a new higher low … so, if we KNOW that will happen then Greed says "take the short term profit NOW and buy back in later and cheaper."
Greed - they sold.
Hi poods, A couple of times I've been tempted to respond to 123tom concerning charts.
I'm not a chart guy. Charts are a great way to look at and get a visualization in your mind, in one picture, concerning what HAS HAPPENED already in the past. And yes, if there are no unforeseen outside issues, charts may be able to (to some extent) let you see any trend that is developing.
You used half on my example of why I don't trade or buy based on charts.
NO chart ever predicted or foresaw that a stock would go up 200% in one hour due to previously unknown great news.
And NO chart ever predicted or foresaw that a stock would go down 80% in one hour due to previously unknown bad news.
If one buys long on charts, I guess you just hope for no bad news,
and if one is shorting on charts, just hope for no good news I guess.
Stock prices tend to be phycological animals based on the emotions of the day, greed, fear, hope, trust, apprehension, etc, and not just concerning an individual stock. It's THAT stock, and the overall market, and the overall economy, and politics, and what's happening in an investors life at that time.
To me, stock price is like a rubber band that is almost always stretched either too high or too low based on the above.
Tilray at $150 was the greatest stock since sliced bread, and they stretched the rubber band to $200, $250, $300 … now it's at $25.
Over time, a good stock will be appreciated and find it's deserved price, and over time Tilray and BeyondMeat and WeWork will find their lower deserved price.
MRKR, no matter who did what and no matter what the reason, we still have 4 1/2 million shares short.
All I know is two things.
Our price is lower than it would be if not for that.
And, at some point, those 4 1/2 million have to be bought to cover.
MRKR is a good stock with great potential and unless something blows up bad, that's what I'm sticking with.
Good Luck, hang in there, we will all be rewarded along with the patients who will benefit.
How many days before …
it tests $5.30?
Friday?
Another round trip trade completed today. Bought on the 6th @ 5.21, sold today @ 5.57.
Already got my new "one triggers another" order in.
Buy back when it drops to about 5.30, then sell when it's up around 5.70.
Still holding ALL my core long term shares.
But, if it's going to slowly bounce back and forth as it slowly trends up, might as well make the extra $'s playing the obvious bounce opportunities.
Thank You for the info.
EVERYBODY should try to understand that if you are hoping for MRKR's share price to go up, then we are ALL on the same team.
Post from a board member:
"Yup, were is been mAniPUlaTededed. Comeon we went up 20% in fours day and now we give vback havled that in two days!! WTF ya gotta be blind not to see it. What else could possiblility explain it???? Why else would a stock move like THAT ?!?!?!? It'd be nice if we could have more than a week without manipulation."
WHY?
Why, purposely and intentionally misspelling, attempts at derogatory slang to incite bitterness, the pitiful attempt to portray those you disagree with as stupid, the willful intent to hurt peoples feelings … for what purpose? … to gain what???
Very Clever, straight out of the Saul Alinsky playbook.
If you don't agree with someone, demonize them because you are superior and therefore must be correct on all things at all times.
What's it going to be next? Oh right, let me guess, If they don't agree with you it's "hate speech" so it's OK to attack them, even use violence because your superior correct thinking must be accepted by all.
YES, that's the path and YES, your mean spirted post was a jackass move.
I hope it accomplished it's goal and at least made you feel superior to those you don't agree with.
"Yup, were is been mAniPUlaTededed. Comeon we went up 20% in fours day and now we give vback havled that in two days!! WTF ya gotta be blind not to see it. What else could possiblility explain it???? Why else would a stock move like THAT ?!?!?!? It'd be nice if we could have more than a week without manipulation."
Purposely and intentionally misspelling, attempts at derogatory slang to incite bitterness, the pitiful attempt to portray those you disagree with as stupid, the willful intent to hurt peoples feelings … for what purpose? … to gain what???
Very Clever, straight out of the Saul Alinsky playbook.
If you don't agree with someone, demonize them because you are superior and therefore must be correct on all things at all times.
What's it going to be next? Oh right, let me guess, If they don't agree with you it's "hate speech" so it's OK to attack them, even use violence because your superior correct thinking must be accepted by all.
YES, that's the path and YES, your mean spirted post was a jackass move.
I hope it accomplished it's goal and at least made you feel superior to those you don't agree with.
From Bloomberg article today about Bill Ackman and his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital Management:
QUOTE "Ackman also waged a prolonged short-selling battle against Herbalife."
Did it happen - YES
Was he trying to manipulate the stock price - YES.
Happens quite frequently actually.
Is there corruption and manipulation in Government contracts? in military contracts?
Of course, always has been and always will be in any large institution, including the stock markets.
If there were NEVER any corruption and manipulation with stocks, then why has the SEC been operating for decades?
If there has been no corruption and manipulation, were all the hundreds of people the charged and put in jail Innocent?
YES, been asking that myself, would LOVE to hear the answer since, "apparently" there can be no possible "bogy man" or "nefarious entity" to blame for any part if it. I guess it just defies logic for the sake of defying logic.
But then again, we know about cause and effect, we know that actions have reactions, we know that things, especially drastic things, don't happen for no reason.
5 million shares shorted. I'm sure that has absolutely nothing to do with the downward pressure on MRKR. Just a coincidence that had absolutely no effect on share price at all.
Can someone explain this to me?
Why is it that someone can buy a block of 200,000 shares …
but I can neither buy or sell 5000 shares as one trade.
Last week I bought at 5.04, but it took a dozen different trades over a few seconds. Same thing when I sold at 5.54.
Now, same thing today, a dozen trades and my buy at 5.21 STILL not completely filled, I'm still 975 shares short of filled.
Does the hardness to buy mean that only small time players are selling?
If only small time players are selling and big time are holding, is that a good sign for the future?
I just want to know how can it be so hard to buy a measly 5000 shares?
Tomorrow and beyond … it should keep testing low by about plus 10/20 cents, and keep pushing highs by about plus 10/20 cents.
Recent low @5, today low @ 5.10, so we'll go down to test 5.15/5.20, then back up to push 5.80/5.90.
Then down to test 5.30 followed by test of $6.
Then down to test 5.45 followed by test of $6.15.
Like a rubber band being stretched back and forth depending on the psychology dominating that particular day.
Good price action for a very down day. Did some short term trading, made some $, got new buy order in for the pullback.
This sounds like the exact same situation that developed over CRISPR technology between Editas and Intellus.
Both Editas and Marker developed their technology, and then a "worker", not a "founder", took it and started a rival company.
I believe Editas has won the lawsuits so far.
Oh Geez, here's the thing.
Take what you said in your first paragraph. Although a certain segment will instantly reply B.S., nonsense, conspiracy … how can you read that, see that in the business world, it makes some sort of business common sense to engage in that sort of practice to protect their business entities and interests … how can you read that and say: Totally Impossible even on the smallest levels.
It is not only NOT totally impossible, it makes sense (even if it's only on the smallest level), has been going on for decades, and just can not be flat out dismissed.
I'm sure it's part of our problem, I don't know if it's 2% or 42% of the problem, but to say … flat out … 0% impossible conspiracy … I can't say that and feel comfortable.
Even take the Fidelity blaming. I don't think they were actively involved in a conspiracy (more likely hedge funds than brokerages), but I'm sure they were loving charging 80% interest and were trying hard to get those shares to lend out at 80% so they could profit more, and just added to the downward cycle.
People can see things different ways and still be good people.
If something is (at the very least) possible, then I can't, in good faith, say that it is impossible.
GOD, you got inside of my head and pulled it out word for word.
SERIOUSLY, every single word you typed was perfect.
Frustration - check, no rhyme or reason - check, stock value compared to other biotechs - check.
Yep, just sucks. It is becoming very obvious this is just going to be played with between this $4 to $6 price range until we get trial data that is just SO GREAT that it just punches everybody in the face and can not be denied.
Then we can climb to the mid $20's where we should be now, and hopefully beyond.
You said: "I am betting heavily they are wrong."
I'm 62 now, been investing since mid 80's, I have never put this much $ in one stock, not even close, so if I'm right, great for me and patients around the world, if I'm wrong, that's why I put the "not" play money in real estate. But, if I am wrong, it's still going to suck big time as it will be about 80% of my stock investing money.
Probably stupid of me to put that many eggs in one basket, but I just believed in MRKR just so damn much, and really, still do.
The last several months have just been a few goof ups, ie: no ASCO, premature AACR release, compounded by whoever the "downward pressure" people are, whoever you want to blame for this.
BUT IN REALITY, no matter WHAT has happened in the last few months, what do we know to be FACTS.
FACT, the pancreatic data was GOOD NEWS.
FACT, Still NO cytokine release syndrome
FACT, Still epitope spreading.
FACT, look at the market cap of ALLO at 3.3 billion and ask …
WTF is going on here?
Yay up to $4.92 … how pitifully disgusting to be happy it's up to $4.92.
Great Post. Just wrote a similar.
"if you are not against the company (short) then you are welcome and needed." Yep.
"I would love to see uptick rule reinstated and require institutions to file their short positions along with the required long positions every quarter." Yep.
" I was invested in drop 30% the same day FDA approval for their drug was announced." Was it because of FDA mandatory box labeling?
Howdy hanscott. I did file a complaint with the SEC within a week of AACR event.
I agree with "no need to single out Fidelity".
I'm with TD Ameritrade and they were doing the same exact thing.
I believe some peoples objections were the 60% to 80% interest rate Fidelity and other brokers were getting in return to lend the shares to short. I understand that that is normal business, but to some, it tends to make them look complicit in the crash.
CHM_760 said "I'm guessing that Susquehanna and Citadel are heavily involved in the recent shorting. These two Hedge funds are well known for going after micro-cap biotech stocks. Eventually they'll move on to some other victim."
The (what I think is) reasonable scenario has been the Hedge Funds.
In my mind, all it takes is a few connected friends who know what
"did you happen to notice" means.
Susquehanna shorts, then calls Joe from Citadel and says, did you happen to notice MRKR going down today.
After Joe shorts, he calls Fred and says, did you happen to notice MRKR going down today.
And all of a sudden, you have a Billion dollars in capital betting against MRKR because they all know "did you happen to notice" (or whatever the cue phase is) means let's all get together and pound this thing down and make a ton of money doing it.
Now Hey, I could be wrong, all I know is, from all my many years of small cap bio buying, and reactions to good phase 1 data, with MRKR's pipeline, something was/went wrong.
But in the end, no matter what the reasons, we are all on the same team, standing right along the patients and clinicians, rooting for the same outcome.
Back at some short term trading. Bought @ 5.04, already have sell in at 5.44. If it's going to bounce around here for a while between 5 and 6, I'll just try to make some extra $ as I hold onto my core position.
Down and up and down and up, just change the order price #'s, rinse and repeat.
hanscott, I normally stay out board back and forth, cause I believe people should be able to disagree without being disagreeable, and I'm also the guy who 99% of the time, hates conspiracy theories.
I'll answer your question to another poster, been investing since the mid 1980's, in small biotech since 2000, had many great hits and some spectacular losses, retired at 54 due to stock investments with more than I need, so, not my first rodeo.
You seem to be saying that the market is always efficient, that there is never any manipulation, or insider information disseminated, and everything that transpires is totally normal.
Without being disagreeable, I don't think so.
The overnight drop that was caused by a few shares being sold/shorted due to the early release of just a small bit of the trial data … whether that drop in price was correct or not, or fair or not, started a whole tidal wave of activity that never should have happened, on what turned out to be, Good News.
Many people who bought on margin, got margin calls, had to sell. Unnecessary downward pressure.
The chartist with their magic fortune telling candlesticks saw and jumped in. Unnecessary downward pressure.
The momentum guys, the trend is your friend followers, jumped in. Unnecessary downward pressure.
More and More shorters piled in. Unnecessary downward pressure.
Which all led to more and more panic selling among investors. Unnecessary downward pressure.
And the snowball rolls down the hill.
Now, were their any major whales or hedge funds or etc. coordinating together? I don't have proof of that, but it's certainly not impossible or unheard of on Wall St.
Was anyone or group trying to push the price lower because their real intention was to buy cheap? I don't have proof of that, but it's certainly not impossible or unheard of on Wall St.
Something was wrong, a drop like that in small biotech, on Good News, is not a common or normal occurrence.
Something smells and this stinks.
I may be an idiot, but if it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck.
I'd like an answer to that one also.
OK, going back down after decent run up, time to get back to some short term trading on the ongoing volatility.
Yes, after countless many moths of positive hypes, AVXL is flying high and has really paid off for all believing investors.
BUT, it will happen SOON.
Tomorrow?
Next week?
A month or two?
In 2020?
By 2025?
BUT SOON
YEP, first thing I though of, wouldn't put it past any of these big players, that's just how they makes their billions by playing both sides when appropriate for them.
I do agree on the share consolidation, I just don't want it to take forever.
You are so absolutely correct. We are so low balled here compared Everybody in biotech.
That is why it is so perplexing to me.
OK, I get it, it was not what we expected to happen, "whoever" screwed/shorted us to death, it sucked, it happened, but...
But WHY are we still down here?
At some point, with ALL of our POTENTIAL, we should be brushing this off and heading higher to 1/3rd or 1/2 of KITE.
Why are we trading in this LOW range?
Makes no sense at all.
That great I guess. My question is, how hard was BlackRock and others, intentionally pounding it down during the decline, before they started buying their shares??
Well, after charting the price action over the last two days...
I can tell you for sure, 24 hours from now, exactly what todays closing price will be.
NEA Management also big investor in GLYC, down from $9 to $3 in August.
Good Luck next week everybody, hope the carnage is over.
I KNOW, which is one of the many reasons NONE of this huge drop makes any sense at all to me.
Monday morning - wake up and the world says:
You know … all things considered (trial data, market cap, pipeline, technology, founders, backers, etc.) … I can buy in here at about the same price as the famed Baker Brothers did, that has to be a good deal.
Can it go much LOWER? It's Friday so if panic/capitulation … blah blah blah ... I don't see how it can go much lower because at these prices, you would think that a number of different groups would be buying.
Shorters for sure in the profit should start to cover at the first sign of a decent uptick.
Big pharma whom it was suggested by a poster here helping to drive MRKR price down to make a cheap $10 offer. IF that is true, then they would surely be buying now at $4, 10,000 shares here, 50,000 shares there. , to acquire as many as possible at less than any future offer.
At this low price, original founders buying is iffy as they own a ton of shares, how about NEA, Aisling, Perceptive, Baker and Vanguard? Even though they bought in cheap (right about here), and even though they have warrants (most), I would think, IF they really believed, they would come in a these prices to stock up on shares, 10,000 shares here, 50,000 shares there. Baker Brothers alone could increase their holdings ten fold and it would be a drop in the bucket to their assets.
So, that's what I'm trying to convince myself, but then again, a month ago I thought that today we would be in the mid $20's
Yes, I wouldn't suggest it, but you can buy MRKR on margin.
Another thing is this: how many people bought more at $6.50 on margin and then got margin calls and forced to sell lower.
How many did that at $6 and $5.50 and $5.
It's a number of things all causing this snowball down the hill effect.
Once it starts, all pile in, the short sellers, the momentum players, the chart players, market makers, hedge funds, retail on margin being forced to sell lower, etc., etc..
It will end, just don't know where or when.
All one can do is dollar cost average down, … and wait.
I remember a saying from my younger years.
"You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at that time."
Great post Phantom. As crazy and extreme this price drop has been, there just isn't anything that's even remotely plausible other than direct, intentional manipulation.
"AACR really screwed us here", Yep, two recent screws back to back, both I believe UNintentional. The first one was Baylor screwing up acceptance to ASCO.
I'll be honest with you, I'm getting sick of this, and I've been through October of 1987 and the tech bubble crash of 2000 (AT LEAST THAT MADE SENSE - EVERYTHING was WAY overvalued).
I bought more at 5.21 + 4.88 + 4.44, I got no more $ to put into MRKR, I wish I did.
They're thinking "this sucks" but "we still got our warrants".
Owned both that have been mentioned, PPHM & AVXL. PPHM, aside from their small manufacturing biz, were more of a one trick pony with their late phase trial. Everyone, including me, expected greatness, and it just stunk, no middle ground at all, just flat out stunk. MRKR has a lot more irons in the fire.
MRKR was at $12 before anyone even thought about pancreatic cancer.
I believe that for the technology that MRKR has, it can climb back up before dilution would be needed.
I think I had figured that at $9 a share, MRKR was STILL only 1/3rd of ALLO market cap, so to me, even $9 is way undervalued, it's just a matter of how much good news we can get before any dilution.
bought more Monday at $5.21, bought more today at $4.88, put in order for tomorrow for $4.44.
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