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BSB, This chart makes it really stand out how the market cap is now higher then ever! The plaint by naysayers that the market is not valuing the co is simply false. While it is not where it should be, the argument based on current share price is not the correct measure - market cap is! This chart shows this very vividly. It also clearly shows very graphically the effect of dilution. We all know this - but a picture is worth a thousand words!
I believe the answer is yes to all 3 questions. A bunch expiring now and the next days, some expiring in Dec, and some that are more long term. Mine in particular are good to Nov '22 and some to Feb '23. I have no idea how large any of these groups are. Of course there are also the insiders most of whom have much longer terms.
There are definitely warrants expiring over the next few days.
Sometimes there is a small leak shortly before a PR is released, thus you can have a PR that causes a bump in share price a little while BEFORE it is released. Perhaps that happened this morning?
Your question makes no sense. Why would you think warrant holders could be "squeezed"?
Hi Sojo, I hope I did not contribute to your decision not to post anymore. Though I may be skeptical about the efficacy of TA, I did enjoy your charts, as did many others, and looked forward to them as a fellow long. I am truly sorry you have decided to stops posting. Maybe after a while you will get the urge again.
I sure hope you are right - this waiting is really getting tedious - even for us believers and longs.
With this very slow but regular drop of 2-3 cents almost every day for quite a while now, are we somewhat like the proverbial frog in a pot of water whose temperature is slowly rising very slowly who does not know enough to get out of the pot before he is done?
You do not need level II to see this. I have noticed the same thing just by watching the bid and ask as the trading proceeds during the day. Much of the time (but not always) the current transaction does not move the bid/ask at all.
PM, you missed the Double Ramen being served up on the daily Cheesy all pointing upward for the coming session.
Very cute, puts more appeal into charting.
This is my view on where we now stand with NWBO? I am a long on NWBO, so you may view my opinion as biased, which it might be. Nevertheless, it is totally rational. I believe that we have a once in a lifetime homerun with bases loaded at NWBO and LP wants to make sure we do this as best as possible even if it takes a little more time, this includes the set up for the coming trials for Direct to shorten the lengths needed for those trials. To assert that the delay is to collect a few more months of salary is ridiculous as LP is independently wealthy. Even if you also want to assert that LP is self enriching at the cost of all the other shareholders, this itself implies that this is not a scam as if it is, then all her shares would be worthless - and in any case, now is not the time to deal with issues of self enrichment if in fact there are any. Further to argue that the whole thing is a scam, this is totally ridiculous point of view. First. LP is a good lawyer and knows that if it were a scam, that she would probably spend the rest of her life in court. It would also imply that a lot of others were included in the scam and played along from the exec, the board, LL and all those at UCLA, the 69 authors on the 2018 article, and many more. This is not at all very plausible. LP would not want to end up as another ENRON, as she saw close up what happened there.
The only possible issue is that perhaps the trial results are not all that clear. The alternative that the trial actually failed is not tenable as they would have to report such a clear failure and all the arguments just made about a scam would also apply here. So in the case that the trial results are not that clear, I submit that it is clear that LP's position is that they are a success and that they will continue on to a BLA (or already have started on one). In that case that they continue on to the BLA, the share price will still be quite a bit higher than it is now, so there is no reason to panic now and sell, even if the TLD is not as hot as we all hope. But as for me I still believe in the science despite the deeeeelays which we are all tired of, that this will in fact be a big hit and the new SOC for Glio and eventually for many solid cancers. So I totally reject your opinion.
I guess we are all in the same hot tub.
Les told me something similar a good while back.
Branster, you posted this morning too!
Now $1.25
Bio, you write very rationally, but I think you are missing a couple of basic points.
First, if there are other investors putting money into "Advent" as a company with a future aside from its contract with NWBO, they certainly expect this company to become a worthwhile investment for them.
Second, what is the big picture of funds going into Advent from both these other sources and from NWBO. What is the ratio of their "contributions" to Advent? Are they only putting in a small (token) 5 cent out of every $ that goes into Advent versus say 95 cents out of every $ coming from payments from NWBO? Perhaps it is 30/70 or maybe 60/40 but I doubt highly it is 95/5!
Unfortunately this is info I have not yet seen. Have you? This could put a different perspective on who is really funding who.
I hear what you are saying but ...
Me too, I usually buy that way as well, but not always. If I am not in a hurry or the market is not going anywhere quickly I may try putting in a bid and let the market come to me, but most of the time if I want a near certain buy to insure getting in, I go for the ask.
I am curious of what your rational is for the market always filling any gaps. What is the rational for such a belief? Honestly, it does not make sensse to me, it might, but then again it might not. Why the certainty that the market will leave a current level, to fill a gap left at a previous level?? Maybe it is just the vagaries of the random walk of the market that might leave behind unfilled gaps?
Thanks Biosect for the time and effort to provide a very logical and well thought out response. I goes a long way to provide a benign or even positive view of the way LP handled this. But it would really take a more in depth analysis with actual numbers, both real and future projections versus the growth in Advent given up by shareholders versus the growth in dilution avoided. While your mode of analysis shows the way, it can only be really persuasive with real numbers of potential gain from Advent versus real dilution in NWBO. This would require a lot of numbers that are not really available to us. But I do see your thought process and my gut estimation is that it could be a real possibility, but will still leave me with my antennae finally tuned to large gains that should have gone to the shareholders. We will only really know after the fact, when the real numbers go public - if they ever do.
Exactly my thoughts.
So is it LP pays LP again? Is this not why they got in trouble with the SEC the first time around with Cognate? Why is it different this time, and not an issue?
I hope you are right.
Senti, if NWBO "purchases" Advent, just exactly what are they buying that they do not already own? Who would be the sellers? Would LP or Toucan be among them? Do we know what they paid for whatever it is they have in Advent? When and how did they buy it? Clearly, I am a bit of a skeptic and need to be shown why my concerns are not the case. I would like to be convinced by solid information with links, so that trust in LP et al can be strong at a time we need to maintain trust in management.
I agree
I depend heavily on Ihub BB (and some on iVil) for my information on NWBO. I know that the standard wisdom is that it is really stupid to get your info from a BB for the bulk of your DD. In general I tend to agree but believe I can depart from that rule with confidence under certain conditions which do apply here at the BB for NWBO
My reasoning is as follows: The BB has a large following od BOTH naysayers and longs. They are both active, so I get a lot of information from both sides. Any news, positive or negative, is sure to be found by at least someone on the BB and posted here, so I do not really need to do these regular searches myself for any news. They almost always post the links and if not then I can do the search myself for the known news to verify.
Equally important, there is a lot of discussion, pro and con, that gives me a balanced perspective and the ability to judge who is more persuasive. After a while, you learn who you can trust for illumination - from both sides - and who is merely a mindless pumper or a short (or trader, who shifts back and forth depending on his current position or desire to get into a position).
But of course from time to time I do my own DD, but far less frequently than I would otherwise given the size of my holding.
Thanks Sojo, I hope I pick the right 50.
in your opinion, is there a good chance that INMB gets back to the $10-$12 range? where would you put the probability of this happening? If not, where would you put the low?
I would like to believe this, but at the moment I think the jury is still out on this one. We have yet to see the real justification for Cognate and now Advent as being external to NWBO but still with benefits to LP and Toucan. So only time will tell if Advent is really Cognate 2.0 or if it eventually merged with NWBO to the benefit of the shareholders who foot all the bills.
Right on!!!!
I have long exceeded my goal, but I am still buying at these cheap prices. I can not help myself.
Judge, I hope you are not using charts and TA to predict when we get TLD!