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With 10 times the market potential puts BP value of AMRN about 3.23 to 4.43 billion.
Omthera has almost zero chance of getting into Anchor, if they did would be years away.
Might be an improvement on Lovaza but inferior to Vascepa. Strange buy for AZN, last to market, inferior product, limited market in Marine only, having to face generic Lovaza in 2015 with a very similar drug. Omthera management knew they had no chance of success so had to sell out so kudos for them to bail with a good return to their shareholders. AZN looks like they want small acquisitions to risk less up front.
I would put AZN down the list of potential partners and wonder if they went this route knowing they had no shot of partnering with AMRN which also makes me wonder if partnership deal/terms are further along that I anticipated.
I believe with Omthera not filing yet that AMRN will be in Anchor before Omthera is even in MArine, at that point Vascepa becomes the standard for this type of treatment.
I doubt AZN ever gets a return on this investment.
Would like to see more tier 2 progress, Harvard pilgrim and Anthem BCBS would be good to get to tier 2 for example, need to remember despite the record speed to tier 2 they are still missing 60% of possible people that are still tier 3 and for marine medication will be hard to get people to pay up for Vascepa vs Lovaza. I know there are incentives to minimize that cost but that involves people making extra effort or doctors understanding all this which us hard to do. I hope we can add some more insurance companies to the tier 2 list soon, last CC seemed to hint more are in the works and equaling Lovaza tier 2 coverage will double scripts within 90 days.
I suspect we are 3-6 months from that but would covet tier 2 for Anchor everywhere.
Insider sales from after approval have zero bearing on what management thinks of drug and launch. If they thought negative on drug they would not hold onto 95% of options and sell so little. Since they spent years getting to approval and pay is heavy on options cashing in a little is not meaningful, especially such a small percentage of available shares to sell.
Management has a huge stake, management clearly believes strongly this is a future BB drug, can't really argue against those two facts
A little above expected pace for me, this is still matching trends for BB drugs in the past and now on pace for 2014 marine of 120 million which is above the 100 million needed and that is not factoring n the increased 2014 marine sales due to large Anchor sales force.
Trend is very good, along the lines of what to expect from a small sales force launch. It is all about Anchor anyways which is shaping up to reach BB status in 2015, about a year ahead of analyst expectations.
Once the remaining 60% get tier 2 should also see marine acceleration. Happy with the trend knowing Marine is just a free year if sales and advertising for Anchor.
Looking forward to June, should see combo results, finally NCE maybe and good script trend with tier 2 now in play for a few months and increasing reach of sales force.
Yes we need prescriptions but the company has made it very clear they are staying within FDA guidelines so off label prescriptions are a minor focus so completely expected that cardiologist will nor prescribe off label but Anchor is what the investment in AMRN is all about. Marine, to me, is bonus advertising time,free time to get Tier 2 before Anchor launch etc...
This is 100% an Anchor story for longs, all we need from Marine is not a disaster and AMRN will be fine and as far as I can tell trending prescriptions are fine, I would like to see it get to 5K and then 7500 weekly and even leveling off at that point would be OK as 85 million a year in Marine sales is more than enough base for Anchor launch. 50 million in the first year is adequate to me and that would require minimal script increase from here. Marine prescriptions are not incredibly important in the long run outside of a disaster launch which I'm pretty confident they have avoided.
The keys to me now are advertising, increasing tier 2, and having a slow steady launch minimizing cash burn before Anchor partnership.
I think they are hitting on all those goals I have set for them.
The main goal is Anchor partnership that is favorable for AMRN, that's the biggie. Countdown to that will start pretty soon. If They succeed on the partnership all is good.
Only 15 trading days to next OB. With holiday and a quick 2 full weeks in June will be here in no time, if anything to the May update to NCE guidelines the May update done in June should finally resolve NCE, here's hoping
Adam F said they would NOT launch in in Q1 and they would not get patents. They will get Anchor, that's as guaranteed as they come, so clearly he has a personal agenda here and based on the less than 10 cent move yesterday pretty clear nobody believes anything he writes about AMRN. If there was any market belief that Anchor would not be approved stock would be half the current price.
Since market looks 6 months ahead by late June stock should finally start moving up, I think I may finally be ready to put more into AMRN, have not added any since December, but after OB update in June think the timing will finally be right, at that point all pending news is positive and Anchor partnership can be announced anytime the second half of year.
Technically looks like downtrend has reversed though need to see the next bottom in this swing before confirming.
That chart was 2005-2008, though I have not seen the last weeks Lovaza sales the month to month sales have slowly dropped since Vascepa was launched though they also increased price to make Lovaza sales in dollars go up.
Since Lovaza is 50% or 500 million in off label prescriptions it is with Anchor approval that Vascepa will garner 500 million in sales almost immediately with the proper partnership/sales force.
Out of the 500 million Lovaza sales in Marine population you need to factor a good percent of those are PCP prescribed which AMRN has not focused on yet.
This launch is meticulously been planned and so far execution is very high. Management is very smart, they realized from day 1 of launch it's all about Anchor.
So a small sales force, a slow steady climb, minimizing cash burn.
Using the Marine population to educate so by time Anchor comes around-BOOM!
You can already see them expanding the sales force slowly into other areas not covered, you'll start to see an expansion of visits to PCP. As an investor it comes down to when will Anchor launch details be announced? Will they partner a few months ahead or will partnership wait on FDA approval?
If someone is currently on Lovaza and has been it's likely that it has been working for them and doctors are less apt to switch when it is working-simple as that.
In 2014 insurance companies will pay ZERO for Lovaza off label, they will drive the switch to Vascepa as insurance companies want people on a preventative drug that is proven to work and Lovaza in Anchor is NOT. 100% of off-label Lovaza will will be forced to switch or pay full retail, no way around it. Management has clearly focused on Anchor, clearly they believe they will dominate that market, whether the stock doubles or triples from here or cuts in half is all predicated on Anchor.
By end 2014 Lovaza sales will be way down and Vascepa way up, just a waiting game
You might, in the future want to phrase it as no update on NCE or no exclusivity update and not "no NCE"
I believe 1 drug went 5 years and then was denied but due to delay had 5 years of exclusivity, too lazy to look up the details.
With new guidelines and a new committee in place now if it goes past June I will have no explanation left unless Anchor somehow would have some involvement in the decision. Since new protocol was in place May 1 I could see the May update(happens in June) havung the exclusivity update.
Otherwise all excuses and reasons for the delay, to me, will have been exhausted so while I believe today is no update I believe June will have finally end this wait as I cannot fathom a single reason it needs to go past June at this point. Forming a new committee and creating new guidelines makes sense for a long delay here but after June none of that applies and any delay would not make sense.
They won't be cash flow positive in 3rd quarter, you need to read the quarterly filing. They even state in it they will need to raise money for Anchor.
Let's be realistic about the situation, cash expenses will increase dramatically with Anchor launch and will take time for the revenue to increase enough to cover the new interest payments, the higher expenses for REDUCE IT etc...
They have a window in 2014 with no generic Lovaza, no Anchor competitor, they could easily surpass 500 million in sales with the right launch so they will need a partner or more cash or both.
Anchor Done right in 2014 easily leads to $15 per share minimum with an upside in the 30's. So they won't be hoarding cash and cheeping out for Anchor.
"In order to fund our commercialization plans, in particular to fully support the launch, marketing and sale of Vascepa in the ANCHOR indication, we will likely need to enter into a strategic collaboration OR raise additional capital. We will also need additional capital to fully complete our REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes trial."
Dilution is a concern but seems they are strongly going with partnership. Which will likely allow them to have a cash influx in exchange for percent of sales and thus not having any dilution but how they launch Anchor has always been a question and dilution is of course One possible route
They meet with these types if companies regularly so making meeting=dilution is a rather interesting leap especially with existing financing which is pretty restrictive and may not allow them to raise enough money through dilution thus making partnership the means to Anchor
If it was 20 or above I'd consider it a success but if it was a BO on the table and what would you take I'd say no less than 25 and likely hold out for 30.
So it's 2 different questions. I'd make a half decent profit at 20 so would be "happy" but think it's real potential is closer to 30 within 2 years so would rather not sell at 20 and wait for 30
I think REDUCE IT might show some results in 2016 and would need REDUCE IT for $50, of course REDUCE IT success could lead to $200 per share but more likely BO based on ANCHOR sales with BP knowing REDUCE IT is a possible big addition. Of course REDUCE IT fails and that has to factor into BO price risk/reward.
My first target is 6 times sales and 3 times peak sales and I see 500 million in 2014 sales and 2 billion Anchor/marine peak so looking around 15-20 by late 2014 but $30 in a BO scenario.
Partnering is big question mark.
Say the deal was 500 million for 15% of the next 1.5 billion in Anchor sales and then 8% over that for 3 years with sales force supplied by partner and splitting of some costs.
They get to eliminate all debt, get a large established sales force, do not give up REDUCE-IT, would possibly get 1 billion in sales much faster and then a BO by the partner once they get close to 1 billion in sale.
There are so many scenarios that long term pricing is hard to calculate but I see a $20 upside to end 2014 if no BO and a $30-35 scenario with BO.
After that too many unknowns to guess the upside.
But I do think it is started the move from the bottom and over the next 6 months will get back to 15. And if they execute Anchor properly it can move up from there.
It's 6-14% increase which is fine, monthly data better than weekly to use and overall we just want to see up trend weekly, we had other weeks with barely a move and monthly trend was fine.
If no NCE this month I think it will be time to add a final round of AMRN stock before June OB.
The company WILL partner for Anchor, which will cause stock price to climb considerably by December. WS looks 6 months ahead so seems by June any downside will be negligible.
I think sales for the next 3 Q's are pretty predictable and little chance of huge surprises with sales.
I got 10.6 estimate Q2 based on conservative script growth and knowing April #'s already.
We are at 2.64 sales for April so almost 8 billion for Q2 with zero growth in May and June.
Monthly figures showed just over 4K growth in scripts per month(Feb-Apr) so just using that # you get approx 16K for May and 20K for June so close to 48K total of underreported scripts, based on the same calculation of 225 per script goes to bottom line(adjust for under reporting and matching Q1) you get between 10.6 and 10.8 depending on the exact # you want to use.
May seemed to show an acceleration of scripts so could be a conservative # but does show that even conservative growth equals beating estimates. I expect a larger increase now that refills will start picking up but like to be conservative.
With the trend and Anchor it still sets up as a $15 stock next year with a $30 BO figure if someone wants to step up. I think you can easily see 2 billion peak sales in Anchor/Marine and 500 million sales in 2014.
6 times sales is 3 billion, 3 times peak is 6 billion, thus a 3 billion market cap next year and a 6 billion price for a BO. I think they can get it there in 2014 and hopefully stock will start moving toward 15 the closer we get to Anchor.
I do NOT expect them to sell the farm for Anchor but do think it's possible the partner for Anchor will be the eventual acquirer so VERY interested in how Anchor launch partner goes.
Another interesting thought is that in 2014 I expect Lovaza sales to plummet to 300 million pace or lower by end of year which MAY prevent a large onslaught of generic Lovaza in 2015 and thus the effect in the Marine population on Vascepa will be much less than SOME have feared.
The timing for Vasepa launch is almost perfect, a full year to make connections and get info out under Marine and then a full year of Anchor already tier 2 priced.
What search query are you using exactly?
Aegis been the biggest bull side analyst and hope they end up right
Using Q1 numbers and conservative script growth I come up with my own estimates
Q2: 10.6
Q3: 18.7
Q4: 26.8
60.3 total sales for 2013
Cash burn 140 million in 2013
-Assume Anchor launch expenses mainly in 2014 and will be shared with partner.
I get 188 million from Marine ONLY in 2014.
Anchor estimates range is large due to unknown partnership details but minimum 300 million just based on Lovaza Anchor sales that will all switch to Vascepa since it will cost way less to go on Vascepa than off label Lovaza. With the right partner upside pretty big in 2014 but all comes down to the partner and the details. So estimate of 500 million sales.
Highly confident cash flow positive in 2014.
In hindsight the times I lost on stocks it almost always went back to management. Even if there are many positives, of you have bad management it is best to stay away. I've avoided SPPI, for example and that's a bad story for management and one that many ignored the signs and got burned. Been there, done that so management rep and quality is important in long term investing.
AMRN management has not hyped with constant press releases, have been conservative with sales estimates, have met all self imposed deadlines etc... So I have trust Anchor partnership will be done right and shareholders will see gains with Anchor that we have been waiting for.
Relistened to the call
Pretty much reinforces my feelings going in, Anchor will be huge. REDUCE IT success would be gigantic.
Most interesting is they seem to be leaning partner in some scenario. How that plays out will determine how much of the Anchor sales and for how long they have to give up and for what.
I think it is VERY easy to see 500 million in 2014 sales. Depending on the partner could be higher. With Lovaza so big off label almost 100% of that will transfer to Vaspea which is likely 300-500 million in sales and add the 100-200 in Marine sales for 2014 and 400-700 in 2014 sales.
If GSK partnered and replaced Lovaza then you see over a billion in sales but likely less back in the partnership deal so I would likely drop GSK down the list.
Sales and profits will grow throughout 2013, partner deal will happen in second half 2013 before FDA approval of Anchor and 2014 sales should lead to positive cash flow and profitability.
How much comes down to how they partner for Anchor.
I expect another NCE delay in May update, just a feeling from his comments, do expect highly likely result by July as think result will be out before any partner deal and partner deal will come as early as July.
Not sure short term price will do much but if May NCE is delayed will look to put more money in by June OB. Have not added to original core position but by second half of year, if price at these levels, will look to finally add.
During the three months ended March 31, 2013, net cash decreased by approximately $58.4 million, including approximately $32.0 million paid for sales and marketing related expenses in connection with the initial commercial launch of Vascepa, approximately $13.0 million paid in support of the REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes study and approximately $11.8 million for Vascepa API purchased in connection with the buildup of our commercial supply and for clinical trial material. During the three months ended March 31, 2013, research and development expense included $3.0 million for API from suppliers which were not approved until April 2013 which, for accounting purposes, was expensed in the period received.
Amarin reported cash and cash equivalents of $201.8 million at March 31, 2013.
Cash burn should moderate after launch and with increased sales.
If not for Anchor launch will not need money but will need money to launch Anchor as expected.
As always comes down to Anchor and how they partner
The unusually high cost of goods percentage is attributable to start up costs, geography, special launch related discounts to wholesalers, exchange rate exposure, lower volume, our co-payment rebate card program and less favorable terms than exist with other suppliers. Amarin expects steady state gross margins to approach the high seventies to eighty percent level
Excellent news also for future GM
The safety results from the ANCHOR trial are included in the current label for Vascepa
Excellent. Sales to wholesalers in the 5 million range which is slightly above lowered expectations.
Weird how they are relying on the same data we are in terms of scripts and do not have there own verifiable data?
It's clear this study has zero negative effect on AMRN and does nothing to address whether Vascepa prevent heart incidents.
It's 100% clear that this is the case. Any other point of view is misinformed or someone that just plain does not care about reality, simple as that.
Just over an hour to our first ever real earnings announcement. Pretty cool to get to this point and be invested in a start-up with such large potential.
Let's Lift the ANCHOR and set sail.
That's one of many questions we hope to get answers on.
We just need to get to Anchor and properly partner or whatever for Anchor indication. I think partners would want minimum 3 months but more likely 6 months to prepare Anchor launch so from early June through early September expect some sort of news on the Anchor launch.
It's pretty clear launch, to management, is going well, I like management and think they are well suited for this company. So, good product, good science, good management usually means just a matter of time until WS recognizes it.
Thanks for the info, good that they are slowly adding sales coverage in more areas.
You would think with the large number of applicants they chose from they would find 4 they could call back.
With salespeople 4 out of 250 being replaced is not a high # if they are replacements as salespeople tend to be nomads. Is also possible they expanded by more with calling some back and looking for a few more, hard to say. 200 salespeople more would be meaningful. 4? Not so much.
Good post to bookmark
We can see which one did better at projecting Q1 and maybe has better model at predicting down the line
What will they say exactly?
We like the trends, we could give #'s based on the trend but trend can change...Will they actually give a Sales range #?
I'm interested in what they say.
Whether this gets to $30 by end of next year is solely dependent on Anchor and how they launch it. I expect little info on this until 2Q CC, maybe announcement between 2Q and 3Q.
Personally the CC Thursday will be nice to hear from management and get some better #'s but whatever happens is pretty meaningless in determining if they will get to $30 per share by end 2014.
Which is what I'm in this for.
I doubt they will give 2013 estimates though I could see 2Q estimates. They have trend lines, they have 5 weeks of 2Q actual data etc...
It'll be interesting, not as interesting as the 2Q and 3Q calls as they get closer to figuring out how to launch Anchor.
I'm not sure how much clarity they will give on everything but hopefully they have more info than the previous CC.
I could see actual sales surprising to the upside as they manufactured a large amount of supply for the launch and may have convinced suppliers to take a good amount of it. Also I would assume Gross sales will be much higher than Net sales as coupon is an adjustment to Gross Sales I would think so they would see full price for most prescriptions that were not freebies.
Good thing is the financials will only get better quarter over quarter. Gross margins in 2014 will be much higher, coverage for Tier 2 more broad, 5 times the sales reps in 2014 in some capacity and 10 times the market. Just chug along until Anchor approval and all will be good.
May 9 is CC after hours
Amarin to Report First Quarter 2013 Results and Host Conference Call on May 9, 2013
BEDMINSTER, N.J. and DUBLIN, May 3, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Amarin Corporation plc (Nasdaq:AMRN), a biopharmaceutical company focused on the commercialization and development of therapeutics to improve cardiovascular health, today announced that it will host a conference call with members of Amarin senior management to discuss the company's first quarter 2013 financial results and provide an operational update on Thursday, May 9, 2013, at 4:30 p.m. EDT. The conference call will follow the anticipated release of the company's first quarter 2013 financial results earlier that day.
To participate in the call, please dial 877-407-8033 within the United States or 201-689-8033 from outside the United States. A replay of the call will be made available for a period of two weeks following the conference call. To hear a replay of the call, dial 877-660-6853 (inside the United States) or 201-612-7415 (outside the United States). A replay of the call will also be available through the company's website shortly after the call. For both dial-in numbers please use conference ID 411140. The conference call can also be heard live via the investor relations section of the company's website at www.amarincorp.com.
I agree about BP not paying for REDUCE IT but 4-5 billion for Anchor and Marine will be reasonable.
I think lost in all this is international sale right are still out there and minimum 500 million market for international sales, likely closer to 1 billion with Anchor. Since I think they want to get bought out within the next year I am curious how they will finance Anchor launch. Selling Int'l rights would not be the thing to do if BO follows but not sure how they plan on raising 300 million or so for Anchor.
15+ takeover #? I suppose if over 30 is 15+ then yeah makes sense.
ARNA has a 1.6 billion market cap with 111 million 2014 sales estimates
ALXN has a 19 billion cap and 67.40 P/E with 1.89 Billion in sales estimate 2014.
AMRN will likely have 500 million in 2014 sales and peak sales over 2 billion- or peak sales of 10 billion if REDUCE IT is successful.
So I do not see any reason to sell for a 2.5 billion price. It's way too low.
Around 5 billion, yeah, but by 2017 the stock could be worth $100 plus if REDUCE it hits.
It'll be north of 15 just on ANCHOR sales in 2014.
No way I'd be happy with a $15 BO from management with upside potential much greater and $20 very reasonable price the stock will reach anyways just based on Anchor indication.
The company could botch the Anchor launch and still sell out at 2 billion which is near double today's prices due tot he great potential. No way they sell that cheap before exploring Anchor.
The long term downside is a REDUCE IT failure. The mid-term downside is poor financing/partnership terms for Anchor. I like the odds on the long side for both of those.
Following up on this past post they did indeed take it past 6.50 and back above 7, now at this time I'd be buying back at 6.25 and selling 6.75. That is still what the trend is, the stock is in control of traders until more substantial news and they've made their plan pretty obvious.
Technically trading wise this is as easy as it gets, needed to get to 8 to break the trend and did not so overall short term trend is still down until news or technical show some kind of trend reversal.
Personally I sell some OTM calls to get a little back each week if I can, otherwise this is a long term holding, since my other investments have done better than market I have the luxury of waiting out AMRN as confident to see a double or more from here by end next year.
My previous post below
"Technically the stock is still in a downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. I would not add until you see some reversal in technical's or news that warrants adding. The next bottom should be around 6.50 technically with the bounce to 7 or 7.50. So you can wait until it drops below 6.50, add and likely swing trade to 7 but if buying to average down you should wait until there is reason to believe a bottom which means either positive news or a technical trend change. Otherwise the trend says it will then go to 6.25 and bounce to 7, then go to 6 and bounce to 6.75 etc....Traders control much of the price movement and they've decided it's a downward trend so wait it out if you want to add.
Otherwise this is a stock to ignore the current price and check back in late 2013/early 2014."
I don't see any of that. The company has been professional from day 1
There is a rebuttal from the author which you should post also.
Again the NME issue is made up by dam and his continued insistence to bring it up after being proven 100% false really makes his credibility almost zero related to AMRN. Add in his statement that the launch would be delayed past Q1 and several other items he's been inaccurate on almost all details. Yes, he is a bear and yes the stock is down so he has had the right trend but that story is still being written and reading his comments and articles anything that can be factually checked later he is batting pretty much zero on AMRN. I can;t actually find anything factually related to the company that he actually got right in hindsight.
Vascepa initial sales were lower than most anticipated but the trend is as expected since then. I see no reason to believe 2014 total sales are not 500 million, when you analyze all the info that seems a pretty easy goal to reach. They will be running 100 million annual basis by end of year and then adding 10 times the market and 5 times the sales people. 1.5 billion should be minimum peak sales though so much of that depends on REDUCE IT but they should eb at 1.5 billion before full REDUCE IT results which will either cut sales in half or multiply them by 10.
Using 6 times sales or 3 times peak sales gets you 3-4.5 billion by end of 2014 in market cap or in the range of 2-4 times current price. Of course the launch of Anchor could dilute the stock or reduce AMRN's ownership of Vascepa but they also get a return on that so should be a wash to market cap.
Doesn't bother me since they have all those options, at that point it would solely be to make investors feel better and be symbolic. I would rather they have a successful launch and check off milestones than make token buys just to look good since they have all these options if I was them I would not buy in open market either.
I would make the company more valuable and then exercise my options.
Realistically how much would they need to buy, no matter what they buy, if the stock price was cut in half from there they could make up the loss with stock options so unless they are going BK whatever they buy at market has no real meaning or risk tied to it anyways IMHO
Those shares were also options so you need to factor the percent of options exercised and sold which is very small. They hit big milestones, I can't criticize for taking some guaranteed money and I'm sure like everyone else they knew if BO did not happen and NCE was delayed it may take a couple years to get the $30 they clearly feel is the minimum number to sell so why not take some money now and then take the bulk of it in a BO down the road.
It's clear by what management did NOTexercise that they clearly believe in the product and believe they can get it to $30 or more one way or the other so not sure criticism of managements sales in the past is a worthy criticism.
For a small sales force mainly ignoring PCP's the trend is showing the drug will likely become a BB with ANCHOR expansion and 5 times the sales force.
It's just a question what AMRN needs to give up in order to finance the ANCHOR expansion. How much the company is worth end of 2014 will vary depending on those details, simple as that. From end 2014 on cash flow is not an issue, financing, not an issue, very little should be an issue by then, just getting from here to there and how they do it is what will determine the BO price.
Excellent script number, and we are starting to see the very beginning of the 90 day script refills. I expect going forward we should start seeing similar good weeks, first time for me where I've been really happy with a weekly number as in context it's a really good number. I expect may numbers to put a base in this stock and still hoping for NCE in May
They have enough money to get through the year, YES, true as they state in their last filing BUT they also state in the filing that to launch Anchor properly they will need more money. Just a question in what form they decide can get that money to launch Anchor.