Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

I think REDUCE IT might show some results in 2016 and would need REDUCE IT for $50, of course REDUCE IT success could lead to $200 per share but more likely BO based on ANCHOR sales with BP knowing REDUCE IT is a possible big addition. Of course REDUCE IT fails and that has to factor into BO price risk/reward.

My first target is 6 times sales and 3 times peak sales and I see 500 million in 2014 sales and 2 billion Anchor/marine peak so looking around 15-20 by late 2014 but $30 in a BO scenario.

Partnering is big question mark.

Say the deal was 500 million for 15% of the next 1.5 billion in Anchor sales and then 8% over that for 3 years with sales force supplied by partner and splitting of some costs.

They get to eliminate all debt, get a large established sales force, do not give up REDUCE-IT, would possibly get 1 billion in sales much faster and then a BO by the partner once they get close to 1 billion in sale.

There are so many scenarios that long term pricing is hard to calculate but I see a $20 upside to end 2014 if no BO and a $30-35 scenario with BO.

After that too many unknowns to guess the upside.

But I do think it is started the move from the bottom and over the next 6 months will get back to 15. And if they execute Anchor properly it can move up from there.