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03/06/14 . . . . . . .
S&P500 intraday high 1881.84, this is an in progress data
for bullish scenario, see if DJI can break 16588.25 (12/31/13), this is a subjective gauge, gives some flexibility for a leeway.
(1) intermediate term
one of the intermediate term target 1879.42 has been met
1879.42 = 1737.92 + 1.382*(1729.86-1627.47)
1903.59 = 1737.92 + 1.618*(1729.86-1627.47)
(2) middle & long term
wave set 1, Fibonacci ratio 1.144 (0.1443=0.866/6) @ 1880.12 has been met.
There is no easy way to know which wave set is dominating, usually overlap in a long term/short term cluster gives a glue.
middle term target 1944.65
R. N. Elliott's analysis of the mathematical properties of waves and patterns eventually led him to conclude that "The Fibonacci Summation Series is the basis of The Wave Principle". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
Insight China 2 . . . . . . . .
In 2013, China imported $232.2 billion semiconductor Chips ( SOC, microprocessors, microcontroller, ... etc), up 34.5% Y/Y, and up for consecutive 4 years. in the same year, China imported $219.6 billion crude Oil. This is the first time Chip import amount is larger than crude Oil. The semiconductor chip technology gap between China domestic’s and foreign’s is widen year after year.
China realized this “soft spot”, they launched “Starlight China Core” project in 1999. This project aims on Multimedia Chip. On January 8, 2001, Starlight No. 1 passed Microsoft Windows Hardware Quality Labs testing (WHQL Testing) , It took 9 years, from grand zero, On November 11, 2008, sold the first 100 millions Starlight Mobile Cell Phone Multimedia chips worldwide. Of course, the story did not end there.......
Still,.. Use cell phone chip as an example, China domestic chip suppliers contributed about 20%, the rest 80% came from import (such as QUALCOMM, Texas Instrument, .... etc), so far, there is no domestic supplier is capable of making 4G chips.
Quote:
________________________________________
If you know the competitor and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred competitions.
If you know yourself but not the competitors, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the competitors nor yourself, you will succumb in every competition.
- Sun Tzu (544BC - 496BC, a Chinese military general, strategist and philosopher)
________________________________________
China semiconductor chips & crude oil import amount
1000 = $100 billion
Close CZZ and CHL . . . . . . . .
as of 03/05, I close the open calls CZZ and CHL in flat.
diagnosis: Both stocks did not pick up in one month time period and the opportunity window is waning out. Wait for the next opportunity window.
SQM 02/10/14 up, closed on 02/27.
CHL 02/09/14 flat, closed on 03/05.
CZZ 02/07/14 flat, closed on 03/05.
CEO 02/06/14 up. closed on 02/12.
Insight China . . . . . . . .
China now the world's largest trade nation
Staff Reporter 2014-03-03 09:01
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140303000004&cid=1202
Quoting initial figures tabulated by the World Trade Organization Secretariat, the People's Daily said China's foreign trade volume reached US$4.16 trillion in 2013, making it the country with the highest trade volume in the world. China's foreign trade volume was just US$20.6 billion in 1978 but has grown by an average of 16.4% per year since.
China Yet to Be a Strong Trade Nation
Yu Xiang, research fellow at CICIR
February 10, 2014
http://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/china-yet-to-be-a-strong-trade-nation/
China knows well that she is a big trader, but not a strong trader. First, China still lacks indigenous innovation and many core technologies, and thus is still weak in competitiveness.
Secondly, China's trade depends too much on export goods, relying heavily on processing trade. The United States has a big lead over China when it comes to trade in services. China’s trade in services in 2012 was about $471 billion, less than half of the US figure of $1.07 trillion.
China exports shift to higher value goods
by Etienne Charlier March 30th, 2013
http://www.procurasia.com/china-exports-shift/
China's Tech Sector Enters a New Era
Jan. 16, 2014 9:17 p.m. ET
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB40001424052702303819704579320544231396168
China has long been the factory floor that churns out popular gadgets for companies world-wide, but the country's own technology products were rarely viewed as leading edge. Now, that is beginning to change. Increasingly, China's own technology companies are challenging market leaders and setting trends in telecommunications, mobile devices and online services. many executives at Chinese and Western companies contend, China's technology sector is reaching a critical mass of expertise, talent and financial firepower that could realign the power structure of the global technology industry in the years ahead.
A JP Morgan analyst said that quality at Chinese equipment makers can vary widely, but "it’s incredible the speed at which they are coming up the quality curve."
The world’s largest manufacturer of construction equipment, Caterpillar is a company with a strong position worldwide . Caterpillar has had its competitors: Japanese firm Komatsu and German company Liebherr, as well as Chetra in Russia ..... In recent times included CNH, John Deere, Hitachi, Komatsu and Volvo.
The global market is changing. Chinese manufacturers are now staking their claims in the manufacture and sale of bulldozers and graders. This is particularly apparent in the bulldozer segment. Chinese firm Shantui now claims to build more bulldozers in terms of units, than any other firm worldwide. However Shantui is by no means the only Chinese firm that is increasing its global presence in the bulldozer market.
LiuGong finalized its acquisition of the Polish HSW bulldozer range earlier this year. The HSW machines were sold under the Dressta brand. the Dressta bulldozers have been developed incrementally over the years and have a good reputation for structural design and quality.
LiuGong's well-proven Dressta dozers
photo: http://www.worldhighways.com/EasysiteWeb/getresource.axd?AssetID=77857&type=custom&servicetype=Inline&customSizeId=14
Clearly, Caterpillar and Komatsu, as well as Chetra and Liebherr, will find Shantui and LiuGong becoming very tough rivals.
http://www.mining.com/rio-tinto-says-chinese-now-make-much-higher-quality-mining-equipment-83928/
http://www.worldhighways.com/categories/earthmoving-excavation/features/dozers-and-graders-provide-finishing-cut/
Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Company (ZPMC) is the world's largest manufacturer of cranes and large steel structures. They built the world largest single tower suspension bridge, the toughest challenge in this field, the New San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.
“If you know the competitor and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred competitions. If you know yourself but not the competitors, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the competitors nor yourself, you will succumb in every competition.” Sun Tzu,
Highlights: (China) Premier Li's MAJOR TARGETS FOR 2014
MAJOR TARGETS FOR 2014
-- Gross domestic product (GDP) grows about 7.5 percent.
-- Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase will be kept around 3.5 percent.
-- Add 10 million more urban jobs.
-- The government budget deficit for this year is projected to be 1.35 trillion yuan (218 billion US dollars), an increase of 150 billion yuan over last year, and accounts for 2.1 percent of GDP.
-- The broad monetary supply (M2) is forecast to grow by around 13 percent.
- Making domestic demand the main engine driving growth.
more details: http://english.sina.com/china/2014/0304/680304.html
Repercussion
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-growth-target-2014-3
03/04/14 . . . . . . .
>> 02/28
>> It is 'rational' to see a 0.236 pull back in this level, let's see.
>>
>> 03/02
>> put together the consideration on a weekly closing basis,
>> the current ramp “should” not extend beyond 03/07.
>> Market has her own pulse. She says: "I let you guess”
Index deployed that 0.236 pullback, Now, wait for the time window 03/07 expiration
Timing
a spike high in this week (03/03-03/07) increases the potential for a subsequent peak around 05/12 +/- (need tuning after the spike)
http://forexrainbow.com/images/50814681873205259793.jpg
magnitude
1879.42, 1903.59 this week
http://forexrainbow.com/images/44445711146247398060.jpg
mail reply . . . . . . .
i did not subscribe the mail box privilege, so i can not reply to a private mail sent to me on 02/27 (received today)
if the ticker is correct, it is a very thinly traded stock, there is no equity rating can be traced, can hardly put comment on it.
>> Gold & GDX . . . . . . . .
Gold made its first attempt on wave target 1349.4 but breached 1345.5 (02/26), and then reversed down. The pullback made an intraday low 1320.10 on 02/28, it is higher than the critical support 1315.4.
Now, it stages up & knocks out the wave target 1349.4, intraday high 1355.0, the bullish scenario looks promising
more details on Gold:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=98089454
To be bullish, GDX needs to break 28.5
>> peaking out in time, overdue for pullback
>> 02/28
>> It is 'rational' to see a 0.236 pull back in this level, let's see.
S&P500 intraday low 1835.97, in progress data.
initial target 1837.24 has been met
0.236 (1867.92 1737.92) = 1837.24
intermediate & middle term schedule:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=98112871
Cooking pot
peaking out in time, overdue for a pullback
>> 02/28
>> It is 'rational' to see a 0.236 pull back in this level, let's see.
>> 02/24
>> Dow Jones Industrial is not only lagging behind RUT, NDX, and S&P
>> but also behind its own prior high 16588.25
From the following chart, while S&P500 is marking a new high, it is overdue for a pullback; From late June low 06/24/13, it is slightly longer than 240 degrees (days) to 02/28's peak, put together the consideration on a weekly closing basis, the current ramp “should” not extend beyond 03/07.
DJI (Dow Jones Industrial) is lagging, As long as it does not plot a new high (>16588.25), there is a chance to see a low (for overall indices) around early April, from there, to judge whether there is a peak in early May. This is just a wishful outlook, Market has her own pulse. She says: "I let you guess"
chart shows a 249 (240), 180, 60 degrees relationship. So far, S&P500 peak comes 9 calendar late.
Gold - continuation . . . . . . . .
This is the continuation part for the prior post, this post focuses on bullish scenario.
On 02/13 Gold price was able to close above the major resistance 1299.1 (1.236), this action gives somewhat a confirmation that the underlying wave is bullish in nature; There is a clear five wave extending impulse wave structure in the making. The sub counts are not reliable and susceptible with many iterations, in general. these subjective counting creates unnecessary mind interference, So, i skip all of them.
In essence:
(1) The critical support zone is 1315.4-1296.4 (0.236-0.382). Since the gold price may retrace deeper than 0.382 in this section of the wave, i will need to keep a mindful thought process.
(2) assume (1) holds, the mean projection for a potential high target is 1432.9 +/-. If this target transpires, in overall, it is a flat expansion with double tops, i.e, 1433.5 & 1432.9 (see chart)
(3) there is an intermediate high window (in terms of time) around the coming May, and then another high window in the juncture of August/September (Gann 360 degrees to prior high on 08/28/2013). Be cautious, the high target 1432.9 does not necessarily takes place in the second time window.
(4) While there are possibilities to see even more bullish targets, I keep all these discussions as a wishful perception, Market makes the final verdict.
(5) Do you own Due Diligence
data downloaded from http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
re River -- GDX . . . . . . .
Gold bug is a ‘sensitive’ topic here, however, i have no bias on this ‘shining’ Darling; The major component for GDX are ABX NEM GG .. etc, I took a glance over these stocks, ABX did an impressive bounce off its low, overall, their charts does not look strong.
GDX moves 1.236 out of wave 3 (or wave C) and put a Trough 20.24 (vs. 20.77) on 12/23, count for easy referencing only.
so far GDX cannot surmount a minimum bounce requirement 0.236/28.50, it might spike up & prick 28.50, But, I don’t know this is a fatal attraction or the Sun is rising above the horizon 'once again'. I guess it is a lure to its speculators ( both the Sole (the bottom of the foot) & opisthenar are itching ....)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF - GDX
http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf_holdings.php?s=GDX
re Rotor -- on metals (Gold) . . . . . .
Thank You
Gold is very volatile, the wave structure is not easy to visualize. imho, the wave 3 is in extending sequence. it has a resistance 1349.4 (2.0 of wave 1) to 1357.2. Therefore, Gold has fulfilled its wave target and it is peaking out in terms of daily chart, with a critical support around 1315.4 (0.236). To be bullish for short term, the weekly chart needs to rally above 1353.3 ( mean of 1349.4 & 1357.2 )
upload data source: http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
daily chart
wave 3 is extending to the limit, the sub-wave count is not reliable so I skip it.
weekly chart
02/28/14 . . . . . . .
(1) Intermediate term outlook
>> 02/19/14
>> The bullish target is 1903.09 (1.618), respectful resistance 1854.12, 1864.47.
>> Overall is bullish.
S&P500 took out the first resistance 1854.12 on 02/24
Now, it is testing the second resistance 1864.47 (1.236) , see if index can close above it. It is 'rational' to see a 0.236 pull back in this level, let's see
targets: 1879.42 (1.382 of wave i in the chart) & 1903.59 (1.618)
chart date 02/11
(1737.92 )
(2) Long term outlook
Index takes out important pivots 1860.11 (highlighted in green in the wave table) & 1861.61, the 1900 zone is becoming ‘reachable’; whether the target 1944.65 (highlighted in red) will be materialized is depending on how the pullback looks like.
wave table: http://forexrainbow.com/images/05784777282136429201.jpg
>> 02/08/14
>> IMHO, the Long term weekly chart hints a possible recurring rhythm.
>> In overall, it is still very bullish.
>> As long as bull can hold the critical support zone 1450-1620 +/- .
>> the bull market (since 2009) is firmly intact.
more details in:
Long term outlook - Saturday, 02/08/14 12:24:01 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=96999787
SQM call is closed, up more than 10%
on 02/10, SQM closing price 26.69
on 02/27, SQM intraday high 29.80, +11.6%
accumulate at ‘proper’ level for a long term core component.
For record purpose, I need to close this call, and focus on new targets.
Do your own DD.
SQM 02/10/14 up, closed on 02/27.
CEO 02/06/14 up. closed on 02/12.
CZZ 02/07/14 open.
CHL 02/09/14 open.
Dow Jones Industrial is lagging . . . . . . . . .
refer to the bottom chart, Dow Jones Industrial is not only lagging behind RUT, NDX, and S&P but also behind its own prior high 16588.20.
The fact that Dow Jones Industrial marks 'merely' a lower high says something is cooking.
GOLDMAN says: Here Are 23 Stocks Hedge Funds Are Shorting Like Crazy.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-hedge-fund-short-positions-2014-2?op=1#ixzz2uJ0SVRAN
14 stocks out of GS’s list are Dow Jones Industrial Components, thus: CVX PG PFE KO GE WMT JNJ DIS CAT IBM XOM VZ T INTC
this week & next week could be critical for bull
(chart date 10/19/13, edited with the latest data up to 02/14)
Dow Jones Industrial is the weakest one 02/14
>> hot air from the G20
G20 "communique" (Cynic)
Jack Lew - United States Secretary of the Treasury
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Lew
Lou Jiwei – China Finance Minister
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Jiwei
Just like a Rooster talks to a Duck, each one sings his own song.
In a cynical way, Jack Lew & his counterpart Lou Jiwei are the two wrestlers playing the Sumo wrestling, see picture: http://www.japan-guide.com/g8/2080_05.jpg ,
China should accelerate plans to liberalize its economy even at the risk of fomenting social and political unrest, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said.
Mr. Lew was more sanguine about an issue that is worrying markets now--the amount of bad loans in China's opaque banking system. Many economists and investors fear that slowing growth and tightening credit conditions could reveal a mountain of failing loans that could potentially lead to much slower economic growth.
U.S. Urges China to Speed Up Economy Reform
Saturday, 22 February 2014 | 00:00
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=b558f1ad-c07b-42c6-b201-385d4722e028
Lou said China's current focus was on generating high-quality economic growth, producing moderate price pressures while creating a relatively large number of jobs.
"I made it clear to everyone, growth rates like those in 2009 and 2010, when China contributed 50 percent of world economic growth, that is not sustainable," Lou was quoted as saying.
China Finance Minister welcomes U.S. policy withdrawal: Xinhua
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-finance-minister-welcomes-u-policy-withdrawal-xinhua-101407234--sector.html
The days of Sino-US mutual dependency are nearing an end, as China strikes out on its own towards a consumer-led economy. And, if it is to prosper, the US must also find a new growth strategy.
There continues to be a superficial fixation on top-line Chinese gross domestic product growth - dwelling on a 10 per cent growth machine that has slowed into the 7 to 8 per cent zone. The knee-jerk reaction presumes that this downshift is but a prelude to more growth disappointments to come - especially in light of fears over a long-standing list of China disaster stories, from social unrest and environmental catastrophes to housing bubbles and shadow banking blow-ups.
While none of these concerns should be dismissed out of hand, they're not the source of the current slowdown. At work, instead, is a long-awaited rebalancing of the Chinese economy - a major shift from export- and investment-led growth to a model much more reliant on consumer spending and services. Indeed, last year, the Chinese services sector actually overtook the combined shares of manufacturing and construction as the largest segment in the economy.
In last November's third plenum. Of the some 60 reforms ratified at that meeting, the ones aimed at altering the behavioral norms of long-insecure Chinese families were especially important - namely, modifications in the one-child family planning and residential permit, or hukou, systems; a shift to market-based interest rates that would boost long depressed yields for Chinese savers; and a 30 per cent tax on state-owned enterprise profits that would provide funding for safety net programmes such as social security and health care.
China is locked on a course that will transform it from surplus saving to saving absorption - no longer inclined to lend its capital to the US but increasingly focused on putting its savings to work in building a social safety net and funding the wherewithal of its own populace. Long the world's Ultimate Producer, China is now determined to emerge as a consumer, too.
Stephen Roach : The Chinese economy is moving on, and so must America's
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1432477/chinese-economy-moving-and-so-must-americas
02/24/14 . . . . . . . .
(1) Intermediate term outlook
>> 02/19/14
>> Ongoing sub wave exceeds its 1.0 wave length target @1840.31.
>> The bullish target is 1903.09 (1.618), respectful resistance 1854.12, 1864.47.
>> Overall is bullish.
intraday high 1855.77 on 11:35am, EST. This is an in-progress data
The wave 1.414 target 1854.12 in the following wave table has been materialized.
wave table:
http://forexrainbow.com/images/05784777282136429201.jpg
There is no evidence the wave 5 has terminated (see chart), In wave projections, the bullish target is 1879.42 and 1903.59. the respectful resistance is 1854.12 and 1864.47, critical support is 1805.64. The wave counts in the following chart is for easy reference, usually it will be reconciled after the facts. In spite of the cyclists are calling potential weakness to be observed in the last week of February, the price is moving above 50 MA, and 50 MA itself is moving above the 200 MA, this is in a classical bullish stance.
Intermediate term outlook
Wednesday, 02/19/14 04:07:18 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=97526821
(2) Long term outlook
>> 02/08/14
>> IMHO, the Long term weekly chart hints a possible recurring rhythm.
>> In overall, it is still very bullish.
>> As long as bull can hold the critical support zone 1450-1620 +/- .
>> the bull market (since 2009) is firmly intact.
Long term weekly chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/83483000717942621362.jpg
Long term outlook:
Saturday, 02/08/14 12:24:01 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=96999787
Since no one can foretell future events we need to see clear observable evidence that price is ready to establish a turning point. At this right moment in my opinion this evidence is missing.
SPX: Weekly Technical and Elliott Wave Analysis
By: TheWaveTrading | Sun, Feb 23, 2014
http://www.safehaven.com/article/32870/spx-weekly-technical-and-elliott-wave-analysis
02/19/14
>> 02/12/14 . . . . . . . .
>> S&P500 deployed pretty impressive ascending trajectory.
>> This type action manifests itself as long as it can hold key
>> support ( 1805.63, 0.236 local, [1826.55-1737.92] ), the wave
>> structure has the chance morphing from
>> bearish scenario
>> http://forexrainbow.com/images/72666165710977674397.jpg
>> to
>> bullish scenario
>> http://forexrainbow.com/images/85205427314277595081.jpg
02/13 S&P bounced off 1809.22
On going subwave exceeds its 1.0 wave length target @1840.31. The bullish target is 1903.09 (1.618), respectful resistance 1854.12, 1864.47.
So far, S&P50 encounter the Fibonacci pivot 1847.47 in this table
http://forexrainbow.com/images/05784777282136429201.jpg
Use the intraday high 1847.50, recent low 1737.92 as the local frame, the “Do or Die” support is 1805.64 (0.382), it just circles around. Overall is bullish.
Pompidou & Rothschild their Central bank Our Fed
The root cause that leads nowadays laden debt in France is not necessary all came from the social programs. Consider we have the Federal Reserve Act enacted December 23, 1913, the following read sounds familiar
Public Debt in France and Europe
Posted: 07/11/2012 12:53 pm
Lecturer, Paris Sorbonne Paris IV University
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/salim-lamrani/public-debt-in-france-and_b_1663567.html
similar one on this topic:
http://simonthorpesideas.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-need-for-monetary-reform-in-france.html
How the public debt in France came about
the government of President George Pompidou -- Pompidou was himself a former general director of the Rothschild Bank adopted Law no.73/7 (note) focusing on the Bank of France. It was nicknamed the "Rothschild law"
Note:
[Act No. 73-7 January 3, 1973, on the Bank of France http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_du_3_janvier_1973_sur_la_Banque_de_France ]
As a result, the French state is now prohibited from financing the public treasury through zero interest loans from the Bank of France. Instead, it must seek loans on the open financial markets.
Today, French debt has grown to over 1,700 billion euros. Between 1980 and 2010, the French taxpayer paid more than 1400 billion euros to private banks in interest on the debt alone. Without the 1973 law, the Maastricht Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty, the French debt would be hardly 300 billion euros.
France pays 50 billion euros in interest annually, making this the largest item in the national budget, coming even before education. With that kind of money, the government would be able to build 500,000 public housing units or create 1.5 million jobs in the public sector (education, health, culture, leisure), each with a net monthly salary of 1,500 euros.
>> Reading between the lines Their’s improves .....
Their’s improves
Our’s declines
In Japan’s Sumo wrestling photo , the wrestlers are in equal weight. in particular, this photo
Looks at the trend, you will realize the Large-Scale Historical Change (http://pos.sagepub.com/content/30/1/89.abstract ) is looming
the force of the long awaited genuine Change will come from the External (the fierce globular competition), a powerful catalyst that prompts the Changing process and ignites those intrinsic virtues embedding in our great Americans’.
Market Turning Points By Andre Gratian . .
February 16, 2014
http://www.marketurningpoints.com/newsletter.pdf
>> watch China . . . . . . . .
in essence: There are many strategic projects has been moved quietly,
One example:
China firm builds high-speed railway in Turkey
http://blog.chinadaily.com.cn/thread-926730-1-1.html
Ankara-Istanbul high-speed railway has been completed
photo
There are hundreds projects on the move ....Turkey Ankara-Istanbul high-speed railway project is just a very tiny portion for the most ambitious one: The New Silk Road, Building the world’s greatest market, North America pales by comparison ( more details? - your home work )
Running a Big leap can not exclude setbacks, there is no perfect execution on a great project.
Silicon Valley Solyndra's Bankruptcy was an example, President Obama suffers a lots attack. It is easy for critics, it is a hard workmanship for fulfillment. Now, The World's largest solar power plant delivers electricity to California (photo)
Reversing roles in U.S.-China ‘marriage of convenience’
Stephen Roach February 17, 2014
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-international/reversing-roles-in-uschina-marriage-of-convenience/article5697748.ece
In Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China , Mr. Roach asserts that it’s time for the two nations to switch identities: that the United States should change its emphasis from consuming to producing, and that China should do the opposite.
Mr. Roach suggests that the way for the two nations to prosper is jointly. If China is to build a consumer society and find jobs for millions of peasants flooding into cities looking for work, it must create a robust services sector. The trick for the United States is to build its exports by helping China meet that need, exploiting American expertise in everything from running retail chains to overnight delivery to professional services.
Mr. Roach understands that China, in many ways still a poor country, differs vastly from the United States. He acknowledges the Chinese Communist Party’s many flaws. And he is terribly pessimistic about political myopia and paralysis in Washington.
But “the endgame provides enormous opportunity for each,” he writes. “The challenge is for both to see it.” — New York Times News Service
Will China Break?
By PAUL KRUGMAN Published: December 18, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/opinion/krugman-will-china-break.html?_r=0
The most striking thing about the Chinese economy over the past decade was the way household consumption, although rising, lagged behind overall growth. At this point consumer spending is only about 35 percent of G.D.P., about half the level in the United States.
.. ..... Now the bubble is bursting — and there are real reasons to fear financial and economic crisis.
Am I describing Japan at the end of the 1980s? Or am I describing America in 2007? I could be. But right now I’m talking about China, which is emerging as another danger spot in a world economy that really, really doesn’t need this right now.
JAPAN'S TRAP
Paul Krugman May 1998
http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/liquid.html
In approaching the problem of Japan' trap, I have tried to give as many intellectual hostages as possible - adopting an approach that is as classical, as orthodox as I could. It turns out that the unavoidable conclusion even of that very buttoned-down analysis sounds very radical: an economy (in principle, any economy - Japan is just the case that motivates the analysis) that is in a liquidity trap needs expected inflation.
http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/japtrap.html
Japan may need to adopt more inflationary policies than any responsible person is now willing to propose.
Western Analysts Are Wrong: China's Economy is Going Strong
2014-02-12 10:54:46
In Chinese fonts: http://www.guancha.cn/GuanChaZheWang/2011_12_21_159414.shtml
English: http://www.guancha.cn/lin-yi-fu/2014_02_12_205360_2.shtml
( web site gives permission to post the entirety as long as the link is posted )
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Justin Yifu Lin - is a Chinese economist and former Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank. Mr. Lin was appointed as the World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President in Feb 2008, becoming the first Chinese national to hold such a senior position in the organization.
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Many analysts and commentators claim that the Chinese economy is stalling because of systemic problems and, therefore, nothing short of fundamental structural changes can save it from a precipitous downward spiral in growth rate.
Furthermore, many have suggested, slowing growth will exacerbate social problems such as the wealth gap and lead to political instability. They are misjudging the state of the Chinese economy and its trajectory.
The gap in technology and industrial value-add can be measured by average labor productivity, which is in turn best reflected in average income per capita.
According to data compiled by economist Angus Maddison, in 2008, China's per capita income measured by purchasing power parity (PPT) was only 21 percent that of the United States'. This gap was equivalent to that between the U.S. and Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967, Taiwan in 1975, and South Korea in 1977. Driven by this gap, all of these countries grew by high single-digit growth for more than two decades.
The first phase of China's catch-up game took the country from income per capita of U.S. $154 in 1978, only one third of an average African country at that time, to U.S. $6,100 in 2012 -- a higher middle-income country. But it is still at the level of the likes of Japan and South Korea decades ago. China can continue to take advantage of this gap to grow at an approximately 8 percent annual rate for one to two decades.
Chinese central government's debt is at 14.9 percent of GDP. Local government debts total 10 trillion RMB -- 19.2 percent of GDP. Even the most pessimistic estimates put local government debts at total of 17 trillion RMB. So, combined government debts are at 34.7 percent to 47.6 percent of GDP.
In comparison, Japan is at 240 percent. Most developed countries debts are above 100 percent of GDP. Furthermore, most nations' debts is used largely to finance consumption and is, in other words, real borrowings. A vast majority of China's government debts are used to finance investments in infrastructure. The two are qualitatively different.
On top of that, the government also has 3.7 trillion U.S. dollars in its foreign reserve coffer. In addition to the government's strong fiscal position, China's personal savings rate is over 50 percent of GDP, among the highest in the world. With this balance sheet, China's ability to implement counter cyclical measures in times of need is exceptionally strong.
The Third Plenum announced aggressive economic reform initiatives. The market will continue to increase its role in resource allocations. The private sector will be given more room to grow and compete. The financial sector will be liberalized.
This growth enabled by these reforms will be substantially higher than the 6.8 percent required to reach the government's goal of doubling income per capita by 2020, leading China to join the ranks of high-income nations.
Post World War II, only two economies, South Korea and Taiwan, have managed to leap from low-income to high-income status. Since China is many times bigger, that would be an extraordinary accomplishment indeed.
A Prosperous China Versus An Ixxxxxxl US
by JOHN V. WALSH January 27, 2014
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/27/a-prosperous-china-vs-an-imperial-us/
We have a potential partner for peace in China.
Let us give it a try.
Establish trust and verify it. ... ..... .. ... ..
Let us leave others in peace to construct their own.
download data to a spreadsheet such as Excel
for example:
use this link http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
You can download the historical (from 1950) S&P500 index data (date open, high, low, close, volume) into a spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel; The Excel is a spreadsheet that allows you sort, plot, define the chart attributes. If you want a real good stock chart, then go browsing the web sites, there are many tips out there.
for example, a simple one: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/creating-a-stock-chart-HA001117942.aspx
this is just for fun & when you need a special range of data that can not be done by free charting tools..
see here is a chart i did the other day to show the bullish implication in terms of long-long term, somebody is really serious about his bullishness [ http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=&showtopic=152682&view=findpost&p=685584 ],
>> Things are not as simple indeed . . . .
The author’s mind (whom you made the quote from) is way too active.
Warren Buffett
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/w/warrenbuff149681.html
There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult
(jumanji0881 ) My comment: So, if stocks, bond, real estate, Beanie Babies, etc. decline in VALUE, then what happens to the national debt ? And what would be the Fed's response to such recessionary pressures ? I would suggest that the national (debt) would explode higher and so too might interest rates on that debt due to lack of demand.
Certainty, Complex Systems, And Unintended Consequences :
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-14/certainty-complex-systems-and-unintended-consequences
A lot of people are remarkably certain that their understanding of how systems will respond in the future is correct. Alan Greenspan was certain there was no housing bubble in 2007
Thus Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen sticks to the simplistic narrative that the economy is flourishing and so the Fed can "taper" its money-creation/asset-buying operation, but she is careful not to mention the unintended consequences
When it comes to complex systems and unintended consequences, the key phrase is "be careful what you wish for.".’
The Sociology of Max Weber
http://academic.udayton.edu/RichardGhere/POL%20307/weber.htm
Weber argued that men could no longer engage in socially significant action unless they joined a large-scale organization. In joining organizations they would have to sacrifice their personal desires and goals to the impersonal goals and procedures of the organization itself. By doing so, they would be cut off from a part of themselves, they would become alienated.
Gold & USD chart . . . . . .
chart courtesy: nowwhat Saturday, 02/15/14
Hi nowwhat
Your chart requirement is very unique, there is not much space for a daily time legend in a 5 years chart. The best way is to download (cut & paste) the numeric data into your spreadsheet with preset a template. You can paint the color and scale the value to your preference into a template, it is just a one time work.
for example:
data source
http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/2014.html
http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/history.html
from the following chart, the USD index since July/2011, imho, exhibits a clear a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c sequence. The USD index is in an onset readiness position to commence its acceleration advance to complete the last 'c'. The wave principle is somewhat in an impressionistic sense but it gives a rough guide .
I downloaded data from investing.com,
the exact link is http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
for simplicity, instead of plotting intraday high/low value, i only pick the values from the ‘last’ column. in fact, the difference is very minor. Do you own DD, i keep a mindful flexibility, be prepared to go back to the drawing board anytime.
>> Un-taper? . . . . . . . .
Why is the Fed tapering?
Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler
We offer two explanations for the tapering. One is technical, and one is strategic.
First the technical explanation:
The Fed’s bond purchases and the banks’ interest rate swap derivatives have made a dent in the supply of Treasuries. With income tax payments starting to flow in, fewer Treasuries are being issued to put pressure on interest rates. This permits the Fed to make a show of doing the right thing and reduce bond purchases. As a weakening economy becomes apparent as the year progresses, calls for the Fed to support the economy will permit the Fed to broaden the array of instruments that it purchases.
A strategic explanation for tapering:
..... The Fed knows that the ability of the US to pay its bills in its own currency is the reason it can stand its large trade imbalance and is the basis for US power. If the dollar loses the reserve currency role, the US becomes just another country with balance of payments and currency problems and an inability to sell its bonds in order to finance its budget deficits.
In other words, perhaps the Fed understands that a dollar crisis is a bigger crisis than a bank crisis and that its bailout of the banks is undermining the dollar. The question is: will the Fed let the banks go in order to save the dollar?
read more: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/30/fed-tapering/
Thank You Jonny ....
A 'relative strength' index in a different perspective ...
Here is a chart that assume all indices has a simple wave structure 'A/B/C', 'C=A' (ignores the "authoritative" wave counts from those genuine E-wavers' for the moment), therefore, a 'relative strength' can be compared amongst the indices. In this token, DJI is the weakest one. as is, avoid excessive "reading the tea leaves". for better visibility, a wave extension aiming on the sub segments is necessary, refer to this table (SPX)
(chart date 10/19/13, edited with with the latest data)
a snapshot for my stock calls . .
CEO 02/06/14 up. closed on 02/12.
CZZ 02/07/14 up, open.
CHL 02/09/14 up, open.
SQM 02/10/14 up, open, core.
i own a set of stocks/corp. bonds, my investing theme is a variant
of this style, Do your own Due diligence.
>> Here's the problem for the economy . ....
Don't dance with that reporter. imho, Pessimism is the weapon of massive destruction to your portfolio. let's try it In a more constructive way:
"History has shown us that the curve of the ball can break differently.".( Oliver Stone )
“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity” ( Sun-Tzu )
(Oliver Stone:) we don’t deserve what we have and we’re bound to fall. How we fall or fail, will be interesting. As a dramatist, I would be curious to see how that happens. ..... ... ... but will we be an empire that will be…how do you say it? Because of our hubris, because of the pride that we have, will we lash out? .... ..... .... History has shown us that the curve of the ball can break differently.
Oliver Stone’s History of the United States
By Interrobang Staff on November 17, 2013
http://theinterrobang.com/2013/11/oliver-stones-history-of-the-united-states/
02/14/2014 . . . . . . .
>> 02/06/14 . . . . . . . .
>> At the ‘do or die’ moment on the time length for this intra-day
>> bounce from the minor low 1737.92; The bounce time length
>> determines the delay to see another low towards the last week of
>> February.
>>
>> 02/12/14 . . . . . . . .
>> S&P500 deployed pretty impressive ascending trajectory.
>> This type action manifests itself as long as it can hold key
>> support ( 1805.63, 0.236 local, [1826.55-1737.72] ), the wave
>> structure has the chance morphing from
>> bearish scenario to bullish scenario.
0.866 is a special Fibonacci ratio, it is the square root of 3 then divided by 2. together with 1.786/4, 1.618/5 .... etc to represent a set of time vs magnitude ratios. See the bottom line in this table
The retracement now reaches another 'do or die' moment both in Fibonacci Time zone & magnitude ratio, see the following chart. The time zone ratio is 0.5 that explains why the square root of 3 needs to be divided by 2. (1/2= 0.5).
Should the time zone ratio go to 0.618? I don't have such perception capability. There is little fortune in this analysis but it gives some hints how index may deploy.
02/13/14 . . . . . . .
Intraday low 1809.22 (in progress),
S&P500 now is flirting with 50SMA @1810.01 (as of 02/13 per StockCharts.com ); The bull/bear gauge is 1805.63 (0.236, local, 1826.55-1737.92); For bearish scenario, time to reach target around the last week of February in the range of 1684.34 – 1622.38 +/- one Fibonacci, see (02/06), To be fine tuned if necessary.
(1) bearish scenario
(2) bullish scenario
02/12/14 . . . . . . .
01/15 intraday high 1850.84
02/05 intraday low. 1737.92 (0.382 @ 1837.78 [1847.47-1560.33].
0.786 1826.68 [1850.84 - 1737.92]
02/12 intraday high 1826.55 (in progress data)
I made a mistake in the bearish scenario chart. instead of 1826.68, I typed 1826.28. nevertheless, bear still grips 1826.68.
0.786 usually is a critical gauge to sense the counter trend movements. In the last few sessions, S&P500 deployed pretty impressive ascending trajectory. This type action manifests itself as long as it can hold key support ( 1805.63, 0.236 local, [1826.55-1737.72] ), the wave structure has the chance morphing from bearish scenario to bullish scenario.
bearish scenario chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/58001688063822974572.jpg
bullish scenario chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/42304118889316679739.jpg
The wave projection may let the speculators trap into the quagmire, there is a balance in between excessive E-wave fetish and a simpler Fibonacci extension/retracement.
“When the facts change, I change my mind.”
“It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.”
- John Maynard Keynes
02/12 Close CEO (+10%) . . . . .
CEO achieved 10% goal, Ex semi-annual dividend date is around May/June, yet, the current price level meets gap resistance so this call is closed, if you want to wait for a bit longer in time, a STOP is necessary.
02/06 close 152.71, this call placed on 02/06.
02/12 intraday high 167.93 (in progress data)
rotor - Thank You
>> so who would you rather side with ...
just post Yellen's debut 'as is', no spin intended.
“Nature treat prayers the same as figurines” (Lao Zi), therefore, no needs to be a self-nominated juror, Let’s have a sedation & live outside that populism box. imho, those wonderful years is upon ‘US’, the force of the long awaited genuine Change will come from the External, a powerful catalyst that prompts the Changing process and ignites simultaneously those intrinsic virtues embedding in our great Americans’.