I admire the aesthetic and I have a terrific rod and reel but while the fresh water fishing I do lends itself to that I'd rather drag a weightless texas rigged worm on six pound test across the lily-pads an hour or two before sunset. Can't complain although stopping them once they dive is problematic.<GG>

Several years back a friend hooked into a monster tarpon at the mouth of Shark river on a fly and I watched it run off the line into the backing. I'd say 300 yds conservatively. The tarpon was a bronze so you know the size. (It finally snapped the tippet knot and he turned to me and said: "God just kicked my ass." )

***********************************************************

Looks like DROOY decided to follow ASA after the early mornin' trading.

Iran, she wrote. As the stomach turns.<ng>

Prologue?

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9153658

P.S. Nice Blog Site, Westy

After reading Faber, make that fifty-one centavos.<gg>
No mention of H.K. real estate or China.

Slowleee it's starting to appear that there are fewer places to hide.


http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/marketcoms/mcdownloads/060112.pdf

re: $USD

I may have to give you another fifty centavos. It's gonna be close.<g>

Scully or Stoopball ?

--Buster Brown

...but he will end up with an affordable payment or no mortgage at all...

and paradoxically the likelihood, a year later, of the same or even higher taxes for his new house (when compared to the one he sold.)

Z--

Having seen the previews for the "movie" Iran I'm not sure that I am looking forward to the main attraction. <ng>
This may end up being one hell of a "wild" card for 2006.

When you get a chance, post a word or two about this.

A healthy new year to you and yours.

--P

Individual super cycles may take a decade or two to complete. Being a self-proclaimed sentinel in the Watchtower, like Prechter, doesn't mean it's going to finish up on one's tour of duty.

Not everybody gets to "kiss the sky" like Hendrix.

Also of note Precter is calling a top at SPX 1290 to 1300, a grand supercycle.
-------------------------------------------------------------
He said the same thing in October 1987.
At best we are finishing up Super cycle Wave 3, NOT the entire grand super cycle.

BD--

re:$USD

I was O.K. for the first two hours or so on Friday.<GG>
Maybe the guys at the front office think a weak dollar will once again improve our balance of trade.

It's gonna be an interesting week.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[h,a]daclynay[pb30!f][iut!Uk12]&pref=G

Regards
-P

GOOG hit the top of a channel today at $470.
Correction next.($350-375)

Ain't gonna see $2000 on this move.<G>

"Anybody Believe This 4.9% Unemployment?"
------------------------------------------
Damn, I lost my size 12 ruby red slippers so there's no place to return to.

When you collect unemployment benefits, in Week 7, they can arbitrarily throw you off the rolls claiming "you are NOT actively" looking for work. If you go to the library there are gov't publications that show that this magical edict is applied to all States.
Now do you suppose that some directive was mailed out...

So Bear here's my question:

Most of the "investors" I have known have either sold too early or have ridden things up to the top and THEN down to the bottom.
So what's the exit point for GOOG? (Forget the trailing stops since "they" can gap open it down and bypass your stop.)

(How many people know that James Dine rode Gold up to $800/oz. and then rode it down to $134/oz. ?)




"In theory, theory and practice work. In practice they do not."--Y.B.

"My best GUESS is that 2006 will ...[go] sideways."
----------------------------------------------------

That pretty much fits in with Wave 4 action of Super Cycle 3. The next year or two in all liklihood will lock us into a rather large hoziontal band, IMO.

As we talk a slow squeeze has begun to the upside.

Well, my NASDAQ TA failed.
---------------------------------------
It didn't fail. It just didn't know how to react to 4.7 million Oddlot shortsales(three days ago). That's the largest daily number in history. And...we still haven't forced them to cover as yet.

Do ya think that if IBM decides now to lay off, give or take, 10,000 workers, the stock will ra...?
Hey, here a pension gone, there a pension gone...Who woulda thunk...<ng>

BD--

You may want to use ASA as one of your beacons for where the PM stocks are headed. It's in a channel and unless it falls below $53 I'd say the uptrend is still intact.
The dollar looks to me like its going to start another move up shortly.

--P

It's similar to a Stochastic %K...indicates oversold and overbought conditions.

Larry Williams set his scale between 0(Overbought) and 100(Oversold). A zero reading usually signals an imminent pullback. (Point and Figure has it going to $75 so you may be seeing a parabolic rise in a compressed time period as well.)My experience is that in a parabolic rise one wants to lighten up after a 50% rise from where the rise started... and that would put it strangely enough at $75.

OT: Anybody from Tennessee?
How's the largemouth bass fishing on Douglas? Norris?

TIA
Porter

"This rally is DOA, soon."
---------------------------------------------

What's soon? Today was Day 1 of "Naked Shorts Ascending a Fibonacci Staircase."

A new high is a given, R.

If we drop 600 points from 600 points higher it's all a wash. IMO, we are finishing up Wave 5 of 3 of Super Cycle Wave 3.

I wouldn't be too quick to join the oddlot shortsales crowd who are auditioning for Custer's last stand.

Gold is remarkable but it's not everyday that you see for several hours(!) straight the Williams %R(12) = 0 for ASA.

Regards.

BD--

Is this the calm before the paws? Now that everyone has discovered the yellow metal...

A healthy new year since you are already wealthy in many ways.

--P

L--

I don't see the COMP going below 2120 shortterm. If it falls to that level in a day it will be called a crash. If it gets there in five days it's a correction. Computers have compressed time. I'm looking for a lengthy plateau with a pretty good band for you to trade in.

The brinkmanship between Iran and Bush is next up. That may have just a wee bit more impact on the markets soon.<ng>

Best for the new year.

--P

J-

Do you consider 2140-2180 ($COMP) a crash?

(Will GS crash,too?<g> Until that happens...)

-P

N--

Thank you(!) for the many fine and insightful posts that you share with one and all.

A healthy New Year to you and your loved ones.

--P

Government running out of cash agin.
--------------------------------------

They're eyin' the trees in your backyard.

MM,

Do we have the EXTREME numbers for a crash? Until then...
We still haven't finished this wave up. What happens when programmed trading reaches 80%? Do you think this string makes up the other percenTUMS?

We live in interesting times.

Happy Holidays,
--P

The $USD is one buffalo nickel away from its 30dma.

Buckle up.

Inverted Yield Curve means recession is coming?
Not necessarily.
Did the Fed just stop the Real Estate bubble speculation for the most part?
Not if you take a drive from Naples,Fl. to Tampa and use that as a litmas test. ("Yeah, the condos are overbuilt.")
Is a Recession, major market correction necessary?
Only if you subscribe to the Austrian School of Inevitable Fatalities.(ASIF)<g>.

********************************************************
If you go back to January 1995 you'll see a rather impressive yield curve inversion. Shortly afterwards a relentless multi-year rise in the DJIA ensued. Right now we still have not finished this leg up although you can see a phalanx of hydrants on the horizon.
We have moved in the last four sessions four-thousandths of one percent.(DJIA)

Good news: The Hurricane season is over... but... there is always next year to look forward to.

BD--

Same old, same old:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4343.htm

For Faber, a reversion to a ratio of 1 (Dow:POG) seems to be a given. A ratio of 3 from an historical TA stance is more likely i.e. a testing of decade old highs at $800+. (That would put the Dow at 2400.) I'm kinda hoping for a top in the POG at $666. I wanna find out how many crazies are out there!!

We will both be around to see a ratio of 3. (For a ratio of 1 your Daiichi hooks may be somewhat tarnished.)

All the best.

--Porter

Ten years ago they would have committed suppuku. Now they call the accountants!

Capitalism prevails.

Z--

The OddlotSS yesterday were over 3.3 mil. I say the Oddlots contain any short term decline again.

(Do we tell the kids now that all holiday gifts are coming from the "red" pole and not the north pole?<GG>)

--P

Do you think it's a "Japanese" typo?
I'm willin' to pay a yen.<g>

http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/statistics/sentiment_index.asp#

B--

I want definitive answers.<GG>

What we do have is a rising wedge or ascending triangle that is a terminal formation. The larger question is for what count? Put me down for Wave 5 of Wave 3 of Super Cycle 3. I do not think the Bear market has begun as yet since we still have more trees to turn into paper dollars.

I am reminded of the New Yorker cartoon where two men are standing at the bow of a boat whose stern is beneath the waves. One gentleman is saying to the other: "So far so good."

While I am somewhat cynical about this economy I am reminded that a cynic is a man who searches for the truth with a stolen lantern.

--P

Thanks for the Faber post.

I wasn’t aware of the Dow/Gold Ratio, but, it explains the Richard Russell $3000/oz. gold prediction.

Choices 9 &10 are of interest since neither one arrives at the anticipated abyss that “gold bugs” are now willing to sit and wait for. Since the charts are saying twenty to fifty years, it’s rather problematic as to who will be around to check in with the final score card.


………Dow ….…..Gold………..Ratio
1)……11000……..250…………..44
2)……11000…….…500…………22
3)……3000……….3000…………1
4)……5000……….5000……....…..1
5)……6000……..…500……….....12
6)……8000………..800…………..10
7)……3600………..360…………..10
8)……6000…….…1200……...……5
9)……3000……...…600……….....5
10)…. 3000……...1000………...….3

...and then there is this small footnote

http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1201-soton.html

Dan--

Thanks(!!) for posting Coxe. He may be the only popular analyst that uses Calculus to pinpoint inflection points for stocks and indexes.

I am back to thinking that this stock run will take us up to SP500 1287 plus/minus3%.(It's a Wave 1=Wave 5 count.)

We are just beginning Wave 3 for the dollar and that may well end up being the big story for the year.

I bet you're into gold spoons for "Reds" in Flamingo.

Good luck on your Gold stocks.
--Porter

Check out the session settlements for Mar06 and Mar07. Both have meaningful numbers of contracts and that's why I have chosen these to look at. It's no longer a case of wondering if an "inversion" will take place.

http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/delayed_quote.html?ProductSymbol=ED&ProductFoiType=FUT&Pr...

West, rumour has it that the Fed is planning to put Lazarus on the one dollar bill.

Perhaps Jim Rodgers is right: "They will only stop printing money when they run out of trees."

It is thanksgiving or "tanks"giving?

$USD correction may be catalyst for pullback. So far running in tandem.