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scooby5, Ditto!
From a TA standpoint, the NAZ posted a lower high on Jan, 26 and now has fallen to a lower low. It needs to hold above 2000 or we will be in a downtrend for the index. This could weigh on IDCC without news, though presently we are not following the market. The longer we keep holding up with volume, the more it appears that something is in the works
Volume continues to be very good. For the most part, it looks like the price drops are on low volume and the heavier volume taking the price back up or keeping it from dropping significantly.
Thanks teecee.
JeffreyHF, I'm not disagreeing with you but I believe that IDCC has publicly stated that there is an idemnifier and I also seem to remember that IDCC has been contacted about the identity of the idemnifier and IDCC declined to make that identification.(say that 5 time fast!) (someone correct me on this if I am wrong) On the other hand, I want to say that I remember that QCOM has publicly stated that they were not the idemnifier though most here cannot figure out who else it could be other than maybe NOK?
teecee, I'll defer to your greater knowledge and experience with a company such as QCOM. I've got a question though. Would'nt a company not being a "willing idemnifier" be something of an oxymoron? I mean if someone is idemnifying others from paying IDCC royalties, how could they be doing that unwillingly?
Data, if phone manufactures use the IDCC/IFX jointly developed chipset, won't that make it nearly impossible for the manufacturers to not pay IDCC royalties since it will be clear that they are using our technology?
Could this be a case where "the idemnifier" is having an effect? Could QCOM be telling it's customers "use our chipset and only pay us royalties as opposed to paying royalties twice"?
Excellent, Thank you!
Data Rox, mschere, with the press release that Infinion has chosen Zyray's chipset as a coprocessor, which also incorporates Zyray's multiple antenna technology, where does IDCC play into this ot do they?
LOL! That certainly seems to debunk my theory!
Gamco, I don't know anything about this fund but IMO this could possibly fit into the weeks price movement and some ideas I've had all week. I, like most everyone else, have been trying to make sense of the weeks activity. I have continued to wonder about the initial volume last friday when huge blocks traded without any price movement. I questioned then whether it was a transfer of stock from one fund to another within the same company. Coinciding with the PR that Heartland had taken a better than 5% stake in IDCC, it would be rather slick to let these transactions jump the daily volume way up to get on the institutions and/or momentum players screens and then wrap up the end of the Friday with a flurry of buys. The momentum players jump in, shorts begin to cover and suddenly the price is up $1.80. At that point, the fund uses the price jump to take advantage of an earlier taken options position or perhaps make further buys from those trying to push down the price or maybe take profits from the buyers that came in after the jump. I rather expected to see some more buying at the end of the day Friday. It, didn't happen, unlike every other day of the week. It was also interesting that the volume buying that did occur thoughout the week seemed to be in response to selling that would push the price down out of the range it it was holding in.
All these ideas are just thoughts without any conclusions. What happens next week will also be interesting.
glennymo, How's the option action today?
The large size trade with no change in price may be Heartland transfering shares from one fund to the other. Or are the MM's accumulating shares and now filling them at a set price? Anyone want to speculate on this?
300,000 trade. No change in price.
JimLur, Your theory is looking like it could be correct.
What's even stranger to me is that the price has not hardly moved. There has to be someone dumping shares as quickly as their being bought. Shares being traded from one account to another within the same house? The price isn't dropping with the rest of the market though. Yet?
OT: sonetirot, Thanks!
Question for the board accountants. I have an account w/ Scottrade. They provide a trading history as well as a 1099 that list all the trading history, but they do not have a P&L statement. This creates the need to marry up each sale to the correct purchase in order to determine profit and loss for that sale as well as the tax rate and taxes. The trade history can be downloaded in to Quicken or comma delimited. Does anyone know if Quicken can do the P&L calculations for you or do you know of another software that can do this? TIA
GE-Jim, Thanks for the reply.
GE_Jim, Incidentally, It looks to me that this pull back of the NAZ is in line with the charts. It coincides with an historical resistance point as well as the 200 MA on the weekly charts. In your opinion, do you think this will hold back the NAZ for a while or because it is presently above the 200 MA, perhaps that will act as support? (I know of course that no one can tell for sure which way t will go but do you see any other indicators that provide some clues?)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[m,a]waclyyay[d19931215,20040124][pb50!b200!c20....
Trend line:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[m,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200!c20!f][vc60][iub14!...
GE_Jim, I am not opposed to trading IDCC, I simply have, in the past, found myself falling prey to emotion when it comes to this stock. It has been to my detriment. Post such as yours help me see past that emotion and hopefully will make me a better investor (and perhaps trader). I don't find the time to follow this thread or post as much as I'd like because I stay busy running a business. (which is another reason I don't trade as much as would otherwise be possible) Maybe, as you say, one day that big boat will come in and we'll all be able to work a little less. One thing that has been sometimes painfully apparent to me is that I need to know when to take a profit. Otherwise all that run-up in price will be for nothing. (Micky Britt probably would echo those sentiments.) Keep posting and thanks again!
GE_Jim, I appreciate your posting of your charts as you do. As you know, I have studying and attempting to understand TA for several years. I've used it to profit on several other stocks but I have been somewhat too emotionally involved with IDCC to trade it. All the fundamental reasons that support our collective hopes and expectations, fed by the excellent postings of the board members here, generally make it difficult for me to use the price movements to my advantage. Your charts, and commentary on them, certainly help me understand charting better as well as keeping me focused on that other very important side to investing. Thank you.
TFWG, I know there has been much debate over technical analysis and charting and so I don't want to add to the controversy. However, to add another factor to join with your argument, the NAZ hit a fairly major resistance point yesterday as well as hit the top of it's uptrend channel. A pullback in the NAZ should be expected and that will also weigh on IDCC's price (though that doesn't guarantee a price pullback if good news appears. Most of those that subscribe to using technical analysis would agree that price is a result of a combination of fundamentals first and technical factors second.)
Three year chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200!c20!f][vc60][iub14!...
sloane6, Where do we find this op-ed piece?
dws, I suppose your speculation on this is as good a guess as any and if it's correct would make sense. I surely can't think of any other reason. Thanks to you, 3GDollars and Quartsman0 for the response.
The market and IDCC should be up sharply Monday morning thanks to the coalition military. This surely is the turning point in the IRAQ saga and will mean a great deal in infusing optimism and hope for stability in the region. I would expect that the impact of this developement will carry on for at least a few days. Obviously the are many problems that continue but this is truely a major developement that is not just confined to Iraq. Wonderful news indeed!
dws, I still don't understand this "idemnification" issue. What plausible reason does IDCC have for that being a secret? Why can't they say that "XYZ" company is idenifying the other companies? Why are we in the dark on this?
What about the matsushita issue. Anything there?
Does anyone know if there has been any action on IDCC's disputed patents in Japan?
ziploc, I agree with your position and hopefully your right about the speed of the resolution. My post was only to offer an assesment of what I'm sure is a temporary retreat on the price.
One thing I believe is probably a big factor in the price decline is the results of the court hearing. This event has caused several things to occur.
1) There is new uncertainty. No one is absolutely sure what Judge Judy's position means and so there is at least a little fear that NOK could end up with the grounds to drag this thing out further or even reopen the dispute over the validity/enforceability of IDCC's patents.
2) If you disregard the possibility of reopening the dispute, NOK seems at least to have enough ammunition to pursue arbitration to it's end. It doesn't seem likely to me that NOK will suddenly decide to settle before letting the arbitration proceedings to run its' course. This developement in the court also could have the effect of dragging the proceedings out further than would otherwise be expected. While the arbitrators may realise that some of the documents may not apply to the arbitration, there may be some delays as these things are debated. If documents are requested, it may require that a hearing be scheduled to determine whether the request will be granted etc., etc., etc. UNCERTAINTY!
The above factors may be overriding the anticipation of new POSSIBLE licencees. We've also witnessed in the past licence signings that did not have, or had very little, attached revenue. The sellers likely include individuals who have been holding in anticipation of the big run that settlement with NOK and Samsung will produce and they may feel this is a good time to take profit and wait for a better entry point later when there might be a higher anticipation of that settlement. The selling is not heavy but neither is the buying and the market is currently in a retracement. All of the above, along with other factors such as shorts etc result in a price decline. I'm sure most would agree that it is the anticipation of new licencees that has kept the decline from being more precipitous. I expect the price will reverse upward if the Nasdaq does tomorrow (it hit it's uptrend line and then rebounded late today. IDCC touched just above the 50 DMA ($18.15)about the same time this afternoon) If not, I personally would expect to see the buying increase on IDCC by at least Friday afternoon in hopes of news early next week. We are very near IDCC's uptrend line. I would be very surprised to see it go below that point as IDCC's fundamentals are too good and the institutions should kick in as we approach that point at least.
I imagine this has been covered before and I just missed it. Why is it that IDCC won't/can't identify the "Idemnifier"? What's the deal?
dws, In defense of AMS, many have critisized posters who have claimed to have made money trading shares without stating, before the fact, the price and amounts of those trades. Likewise, others have been critisized for stating only exit points. Those traders have been accused of "making up" their trades and exits only after the benefit of hindsight. AMS's post is in response to those accusations. I understand your position but don't yoou agree that it leaves AMS and the others like him in a "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situation?
GE-Jim, I follow your posts consistantly. I've been studying charting for a couple of years. IDCC is one of my primary stocks (my main one actually) and so I find your comments particularly helpful in helping me identifying the nuances between the different indicators as well as IDCC's price movement in relation to the rest of the market. In your opinion, what effect do you think hitting 10,000 today will have on the DOW. It seems that the NASDAQ has been exibiting weakness since hitting 2,000 last week. Couple that with the yearlong charge upwards over the last year. It sure seems like the the market is due for a little rest and I'm wondering if these milestones won't be the place for that to happen. Besides all the other factors involved, how much will that affect IDCC's upward movement. I used to have your e-mail address but lost it during a hard drive crash recently. I wanted to e-mail you a few of my charts for you to critique if you had time. I am particularly interested in your opinion because of how they intersect with the comments you've made over the last couple days about the movement of IDCC's price. If you don't mind, you can e-mail me at plumear@hotmail.com. I certainly understand if you don't have the time. Keep posting. Some might find it irritating that you make predictions based on your observations but I find it enlightening.
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Jimlur, My webmail service had a problem earlier today and did not recieve your "IDCC response". I would be extremely grateful if you could send another copy. Many thanks!
Good observation ams. EOM
Point well made! EOM
mschere, could it be that IDCC wanted to make sure it had "exclusive" use of all the Tantivy patents in case of a showdown w/ QCOM over the idemnification issue?