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I have owned Mirati MRTX since they were a tiny Canadian company named MethylGene. They came to USA and changed their name to Mirati in 2013. Even after that, they did nothing (price wise) for four years until they took off mid 2017.
These tiny biotechs take time and patience.
Guess that answered that question, $0.25.
It was like, yeah good news at 50% enrollment, big deal, they are still years away from a drug on the market, no need to buy now, will have plenty of opportunity to buy in cheap later on … so the price goes down on good news.
Just Great.
ONTX - one trick pony got to be reporting some kind of news soon.
It either tanks or skyrockets.
SpeedWeed goes to direct to consumer model, revenue soon.
Yep, going nowhere fast.
Will ATNM close Monday closer to $0.25 or $2.50?
Article on James Allison and Marker:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-invest-in-biotech-stocks-like-a-nobel-prize-winner-2019-10-24
Highlights:
Everyone knows about mimicking the holdings of investment wizards, such as Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn, for stock ideas. Instead, I’d like to introduce you to someone who’s unknown: cancer-therapy researcher James Allison.
Why should you care what companies he’s in?
First, Allison is a rare genius in biotech. He helped invent an entire branch of cancer treatment called immunotherapy, and he won Nobel Prize for it in 2018. Second, coat-tailing is especially useful in biotech, which I will demonstrate in a moment. Third, Allison is one of the good guys in the world, so he’s not lending his name to companies just for a fast buck.
Market Therapeutics
Marker Therapeutics MRKR, +1.72% (formerly called TapImmune) has technology that grows rare cancer-killing T cells that recognize antigens on tumor cells. The company’s management thinks these T cells can be injected into the body to kill cancer cells. Marker is also developing an antigen-expression technology called PolyStart, which may help the immune system recognize and destroy diseased cells.
Note: Of the three small companies mentioned here, this is the one that has the best ownership profile, according to the system I use at my stock letter.
The Allison connection: He’s on the company’s scientific advisory board, along with Sharma at the MD Anderson Cancer Center.
BOUT TIME !!
What's coming first - $2 or $3 ??
OH, Please don't ask me to cheer because it's up to $4.07.
Yep, well said.
Oh Boy, are we having fun yet? It's the train to bizarre-o land, next stop $3 something, BELOW the Baker Brothers, NEA, etc. price! NO, nothing wrong here. Where is everyone who wanted to buy when the offering was oversold?
What's next? Two months from now Marker announces two more complete remissions … and the price will drop to $2.
Is this the Carbonaro effect where all sense of logic and reason leave the building?
Did earths magnetic poles flip and MRKR investors got sucked into the Twilight Zone?
WTF is happening? and WHY?
You would think that MRKR KIILED patients with cytokine release … Oh No wait, THAT's CAR-T companies.
MRKR in the low $4.00's, reminds me of Pharmacyclics 10 years ago before it got bought by AbbVie. 10 years ago, in October 2009, Pharmacyclics (PCYC) was $1.87. It went up to $50, then $100, then $150, then got bought for $260 (21 Billion).
As I'm in a similar situation, I feel your pain and frustration.
It's does seem that MRKR is not really being accepted in the research and pharma community (YET).
It's that word "yet" that still gives me hope.
I don't know or pretend to understand why they have dismissed what sounded like good news. I guess the semantics of "good news" can be discussed, but several patients being helped positively And a complete response And still no cytokine release syndrome And still positive epitope spreading … I really don't think can be called "bad news".
So, I'm just holding on here because I don't think they will be able to dismiss the second bit of good news, when it comes.
I've been dollar cost averaging the share price down and accumulating more for the last 10 months, but I got a Ferrari into it and with home/condo/land property taxes coming due in the next two months, my last buy at $4.40 has to be it for now.
Good Luck - Hang In There.
I'd LOVE to hear the explanation for today/this.
This looks more like a crappy company going bankrupt, than a great company with great management with great potential.
When you are given a chance to invest in a great company at almost the same price that the Baker Brothers and NEA did, it's a no brainer.
This Italian heritage has come up before on this board, there are Many Italians who own MRKR.
The only way we get screwed is to sell out.
Solution to that is easy - Don't Sell Out.
Next time it's pushing $6 (yes, it will happen), I will sell about half of my recent buys and add the rest to the core long term holdings.
It's just, be patient and dollar cost average down, works just about every time.
Some may think I'm crazy for buying more and more, in the last couple of weeks, $5.57, $5.33, $5.07, $4.40.
BUT, I look at it like this:
I go to a new car dealership and the car I love is $65,000, and I say I'll decide in a couple of weeks.
OK, I go back two weeks later and the exact same car is priced at $55,000.
If I loved it at 65K, how MUCH MORE do I love it at 55K.
Nothing changed, it's the same car as it was two weeks ago.
What has changed with MRKR in 2019?
WE got Positive news on pancreatic cancer (that's good).
We still had NOT A SINGLE case of cytokine release syndrome (that's good).
We still have epitope spreading with MultiTAA (that's good).
From a company point of view, it's a better company than it was on January 1st 2019.
The only negatives are, in January we had 1 million shares shorted, now we have 5 million (not the companies fault).
The share price bombed (not the companies fault).
It will revert back given time, the shorts will have to buy to cover and we will all (investors and patients) be rewarded for our faith.
Yep, Dad born in Sicily (1909), Mom from Naples (1916).
Wound up in Brooklyn, Bensonhurst (Dad) and Greenpoint (Mom).
Married, moved east out on Long Island
Ridiculous but just bought more @ $4.40.
Never thought I'd ever see $4.40 again.
"all the good things that would make this a billion dollar company."
I look at what JUNO and KITE and ALLO got bought for and I think … all the good things that would make this a 10 billion dollar company.
$3.50 to $2.80. What's the excuse this time?
RA Pharm just got bought out. Honestly, I think we just need to hold out and wait until there is more good news.
If we get more positive data, there is no way they can just keep ignoring
MRKR.
AND, when we stop getting ignored and the buys start to come in … AT SOME POINT ... 5 million short shares HAVE TO buy to cover.
But for now, this market cap is still total BS.
YO BAKER BROTHERS - DUMP IN ANOTHER 10 OR 20 MILLION AT THIS PRICE - IT'S CHUMP CHANGE TO YOU.
GEEZ - DOES THIS SUCK OR WHAT.
Hopefully pushing $5.60 by the end of next week.
Funny you said "So putting all this together, looking at trade set ups, I'm looking to buy around 5 support and be ready to take some profit at 6 resistance.
Maybe it will stretch those parameters a little, so I buy at 4.75 and sell at 6.25."
Since I got 5.33, but not 5.07 yet, I've been thinking since Friday close, what's more likely, a push back up toward 6 again (and perhaps test a bit beyond) … OR … down to 4.50.
Let me qualify be saying "I've been wrong before", but I just can't see much below 5 without any "orchestration" (if you know what I mean).
That's not saying that it can't be orchestrated again (WHY for God's sake other than pure greed), but whether I get 5.07 or not, I think the push toward 6 seems more likely.
If it does go below 5, I think buyers will come back in at any opportunity below 5.
Your 5 to 6 parameters are about what's in my head, a bit below to a bit beyond, but that's why I'm trying to trade that 5.30 to 5.70 for now, because I'd rather leave some on the table in both directions and "make sure I get the round trip", then try to capture every penny and miss out because I missed the turn.
I Agree with you … on the shorting part.
Myself and 2 or 3 others here have been the loudest voices denouncing short sellers and whether there was or was not some kind of shorting "collaboration" going on concerning MRKR's crazy huge drop in price (oh, by the way … after reporting GOOD NEWS).
We all were SO anti-shorting that we actually took some jabs about, OK, enough already complaining about the shorts, I'm sure you read it.
I, personally don't short stocks, never have, and I explained here why in the past.
But, I would like to say that what traders are doing (and talking about) is somewhat opposite the theory.
In other words, if a stock is heading up from $5 … and a trader says "I'll sell when it gets close to $6, no one is going to short based on what 1 or 2 traders do, it's the opposite.
The trader KNOWS, that if you just look at odds and probabilities, a stock that is climbing back up after a huge crash, with huge shorting … 90+% of the time will have pullbacks along the way, each and every time there is a decent move up.
And those pullbacks will be caused by 2 factors, short term profit taking, and new short positions at the new higher price.
After a huge crash, that is a nervous stock, a wary stock, which just makes it more likely for people to say, let's take some sure profits, because I'm more nervous and wary of this stock after such a crazy huge crash.
And people also know … the shorters are still out there waiting on their new higher entry point.
It's just a matter of Knowing what there is to Know and acting on it.
All the trader is doing is, seeing that that is exactly what will happen most of the time, and profiting from it if it's going to happen anyway.
That's how you play the game successfully. I also own a ton of AVXL, owned it for a while, bought more just below $4 (OOPS) and then even more when dropped down to $3 (OOPS) as it continued down. At least it had some good news and is headed back up.
"Was that extreme sell off to 4 dollars something they can do all over again?"
Yep, I worry about that too, especially the "they" part.
My odds say NO to back to $4, but I was wrong the first time.
I'll tell you what, if we go back to $4, I'm getting a new rubber band.
P.S. put in a smaller $5.07 just in case.
Howdy 123tom, I just read post:
"when it was peaking around 9 dollars, and I was first starting to analyze the chart, it looked overbought. the math target zone was really closer to 8 dollars as a finished rally on the math chart, so I watched this 9 dollar zone with great caution. The first pullback targets on the math chart were down at 6.50-6.00 area, and I actually started buying first position at 6.50. then 6.15 on that first plunging day. The technical chart was not looking at prices below 5.00 area, maybe 5.75 would hold ok. and if it somehow did fall more, the 5 dollar support looked very strong."
I'd like to look past and future with you.
If someone said to you right now, based on two generally accepted premises, that MRKR is currently undervalued and MRKR has big "potential" and in the absence of any large good or bad news … draw a chart for the next 6 months or next 12 months.
Just based on "I've seen it hundreds of times already", would not your chart just (generally) be a stairstep up with (generally) higher highs and (generally) higher lows?
Whether it gets up to $9 or $12 in whatever period of time, just based on odds and probabilities having seen the pattern repeat hundreds of times, you kind of know what "SHOULD" happen.
Bounce between 5 + 6 for a while, then bounce between 5.5 + 6.5, then 6 + 7, etc. … I mean generally, that should be the course.
Also, sticking in the future, IF/WHEN we get that piece of great news and IF/WHEN we get the Giant Up in price, what will "most likely" happen next, at some point in the near future, based on odds and probabilities?
Would it be, some kind of price drop due to profit taking?
For that case, I use staggered trailing % stop losses.
Looking to the past, my phycology of the day driven rubber band said "NO WAY this gets below $6" simply because $6 was 150% of what the "smart money" bought in at.
When it got below $6, rubber band just moved to $5, simply because I did not think we would get to be allowed to buy at or near "smart money" valuations.
The main differences between my rubber band and your charts is my rubber band takes less work, but your charts may do the "bands" more well defined and accurately.
Howdy Maciste, From the bottom of my heart, being totally honest, because I feel your frustration re: price.
I am FRUSTRATED beyond belief, not only because of the enormous dollar lost since before the AACR screwup (Yes, most of it was profit - but irrelevant because a dollar lost is a dollar lost).
But ALSO because I am the jackass who said, on this board, many times, that post AACR, we should be in the mid $20's.
At this point, I don't know WHO to blame, or which computer or algorithm to blame, or which strategy (shorts-options-charts-throwing darts) to blame.
But HONESTLY, the only thing that reduces some of my frustration … is making it back a couple thousand at a time.
Unless we are ALL IDIOTS and we are ALL WRONG about Markers potential, in time, we will all be just fine with zero frustration re: stock price.
Hi Maciste, With equal due respect … I believe what you mean, actually, the only thing you can mean is … YOU don't care, not sure you can speak for all board members or all those who short term trade to profit who might be interested in trading ranges used to profit.
I responded with my post to tom123 who IS a trader and DOES seem to be interested.
BUT, to be honest, there are ALSO two other reasons I document my short term trading.
#1, On this board, back when, when I was just typing what has happened with my trading, I was challenged to "publish my trades IN ADVANCE" and to "Put Up or Shut UP.
Since then, I have posted my future buy and sell orders in advance so people can see that making an extra $1000 or $2000 every week or two is not only possible but posted in advance for all to see.
#2, I KNOW that many on this board (perhaps you) are "only" long term holders and believers in MRKR (AS AM I - a large long term hold position) …
BUT, if by posting my trades in advance and then posting the positive results of those trades … IF I CAN GET ONE PERSON … maybe you … to say, "HEY, YES, I am a long term holder, BUT if this jerk "micro" can make an extra $1000 or $2000 every week or two … Why shouldn't I also try it and make some extra money along the "long term holder" ride.
And maybe, do what the jerk "micro" does and take the short term profits to INCREASE my long term holdings.
Maciste, appreciate your feedback, thought I'd explain the motivation for my trading posts. Thank You.
As called, my $5.33 buy order was filled.
Now I just wait till the push back up to test the $5.75 to $6 range.
Now into my 4th recent round trip, it's acting kind of predictable, might as well profit from it.
My 5.57 buy got filled. I didn't think it would hold over 6 without testing 5.50 range again.
Just for safety, I also got a buy order in at 5.33.
Just for short term trades, they will be sold back next time we push 6.
Gee, with any luck we'll be back up to where we were at the start of July soon.
We got some good news, need more of it, more positive trial updates.
Before Marker and MultiTAA, most of us seemed to be positive concerning what Tapimmune was doing, so I'm hoping for some good news from the TVIP legacy side. Not expecting anything earth shattering like MultiTAA has the potential to be.
Having said that, I honestly believe … all things being equal, that MRKR's "realistic potential" is worth at least double where we are at now, so I'm also hoping for a slow and steady realization of that and a "no matter how slowly", upward steady climb in share price.
I HOPE.
Howdy 123tom, Thank you for your response. If you've read my past posts, you know that I kind of wish that everybody who doesn't totally agree with a post … would respond thoughtfully as you did.
We do agree on some.
You said: "what is shown on a chart is the price action that recently happened." and "it shows a map of track patterns to watch for."
That sounds very similar to my statement of: " Charts are a great way to look at and get a visualization in your mind, in one picture, concerning what HAS HAPPENED already in the past. And yes, if there are no unforeseen outside issues, charts may be able to (to some extent) let you see any trend that is developing."
You mentioned Elliott and Fibonacci … and I know Wall street have computers that are full of algorithms that automatically trade based on those algorithms.
To be honest, I don't understand it all, over my head, I couldn't tell you how an algorithm tells a computer to trade if my life depended on it.
You may know that I hold a decent long term hold position in MRKR, BUT also trade as you do short term. Did three … what I call round trip trades (buy low and then sell higher) in the last couple weeks.
I'm doing … let's say …. the same as you, but I try to get in and out beforehand.
What I mean is this. When your chart says we could retrace and get down to $5.20, I put in a buy order at $5.35, and then when the chart says it could go up to $5.75, I put in a sell order at $5.65. A few thousand shares and that's $1000, over and over.
And here's why, some things are predictable based on odds and probabilities.
I think one thing that is predictable based on odds and probabilities is that MRKR will NOT skyrocket straight up without a major catalyst.
If I assume that, then odds and probabilities tells me, every time we get a decent run up in price, there will be profit takers to bring it back somewhat lower, so I'm just trying to get out ahead of them.
I'm looking for, and as a chart guy you know what I mean … is the stairstep up with higher highs and higher lows.
And in this current pattern, the continued retracements to higher lows ain't going to stop, so why not profit from them.
Good Luck trading and if you don't have any MRKR for long term, take a long term hold flyer, I think we will all be just fine and happy in 2020.