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Be careful on the tendency to sell the news no matter how good. My theory is that HF wash trading Algos wash out the bids to take the price lower where they will start to accumulate at the lower price over the next few days or weeks. I have seen that happen even when the news was irrefutably great.
Do not be faked out into thinking bad data or results in the trial just because the stock sells off hard. One should know ahead of time what the numbers should be for success. The market will not tell you in fact the market reaction could be a lie by HFT computer Algos.
A surprise up list to NASDAQ will expose any naked short sellers if there are any to the DOJ.
I love these presentations. I take the opportunity to accumulate by selling stocks at highs and taking profits to rotate into CYDY at a discount. Sold some SAGE at 52 week high and bought CYDY on the temporary dip. So it helps me manage risk by incentive to take some profits on stocks with big gain and accumulate here on this "low risk high reward" stock that is CYDY at this juncture in my opinion.
Thank you for all your cogent charts. I email them to myself from my phone to compare with the ones I build on my TorS platform and in Barchart.com
Definately a long gestation period in this pregnant pause. I hope it means NWBO will be having twins. rGBM and nGBM.
CYDY is 3 billion market cap but I know of no others OTC traded Companies with over $1 billion besides ADRs and Canadian cannabis companies.
Likely handed out to politically connected BP who may have used it in part to short sell NWBO. The NIH have in effect been shorting NWBO by not providing funds to support while supporting others.
Excellent the Bruce Patterson paper. In print.
A bull flag continuation pattern would infer a continuation of the rally with the next pole roughly the length of the last one of $3+ from 12-31-20 low or a target of $8ish within in a the next 10 trading sessions. I will take it! A bull flag continuation pattern forming concurrently with a Cup with Handle breakout! Bullish setups don't get much better than that!
Now all we need is a NASDAQ up list to eliminate shorts and short selling in the share transfer conversion days and some positive PR to ignite the 2nd stage of the blast up.
Interesting "break-out" finish above $5.95 on close of day volume spike. It looks like CYDY might be starting a break out run.
This presents a perfect set up for an IBD CanSlim swing trade ( not that I am swing trading..holding long term here)in that RSI is perched just under the power zone @69.46% and one can trace out a Cup with Handle formation starting 9-4-20 to the handle 12-22-20 and today completes the handle. Looks like a classic Cup & Handle. Continuation of this surge tomorrow will confirm and might start another parabolic price rise.
Interestingly enough I expect to see an uplist to NASDAQ shortly. I hope this will be a surprise uplift overnight to trap any illegal naked shorts and expose them to the DOJ.
Nice find. Thank you.
Excellent. I think this fairly encapsulates the expected range of benefits for blarcamesine. Not a "magic bean" cure like NARCAN for opiate overdose or Ivermectin for parasitic infestations but a very useful "tonic like" medication that gives relief and improves symptoms. One of the common threads I see running through the Avavex trials is improved mood and sleep and incremental improvements in diverse symptoms, an overall tonic like safe feel better drug. Such a safe and widely applicable drug might truly be a block buster when fully developed. I would like to see it developed for depression and anxiety because in addition to its other MOAs it is reported to be a mild and safe SSRI.
Very good, thanks for posting.
No absolutely not. That would be criminal racketeering.
Actually new indication have an Evergreening effect by extending the patent life with new patents specific to the indication and by exclusive marketing protections that are issued along with the new indications approvals. So drugs eventually only lose marketing protections after there are no more indications to attain approval in. CytoDyn may not run out of these for decades.
Ok thank you for that clarification. Good to know. I guess I was confused on the process for this in pandemic since Gilead got EUA for basically a failed trial almost immediately.
I think the path that CytoDyn chose is brilliant. Let the FDA decide on the EUA application while the data of the unblinded data is with the statisticians so they can grant or not before the top line report is released. If they grant EUA it will be hard for detractors to heavily criticize the TLD. If FDA does not approve the EUA and the TLD shows good SAT SIG results on overall mortality then that would seem to put an onus on the FDA to answer the question why a safe and life saving drug is being denied immediate use in this pandemic.
That is a nice and possibly fanciful story that feels good but it is 2nd hand hearsay and has no probative value for that reason. And if true it still would not be relevant as it is a single antidote and does not tend to show anything related to the effectiveness of Leronlimab.
EIRSA season starts Jan 1st to April 15th peak when contribution deadline for IRAs and SEP plans then falls off to a lower level to the Oct 15th deadline for self-employed individuals with solo 401K and SoloRoth401K plans that filed for tax filing extension to make contributions to those self employed 401Ks or those not eligible or covered by a employer sponsored retirement plan. The first months of the year benefit stock prices because of this and may be a contributor to the very real January effect.
Here is how it went down for the record books. He intended to give him a b12 shot but it was leronlimab because the OR Pharmacist mixed them up by accident. Unfortunately that Pharmacist expired due to Covid . We corrected this mistake by giving him the b12 later when this mistake was discovered by the new Pharmacist.
That board over there seems to be dominated by the super confused. There are a few rational ones, one of the rational ones posts here.
read the board there last week because I was thinking of taking a position then a saw the irrational thesis of many and the utter confusion. They were not discussing Lenz but were fixated it seems on CYDY and Leron. I am glad I did not buy in because they announced ANOTHER stock offering this time an ongoing ATM that many times will cap a share price and depress it for years instead of one big offering it is trickled out every week or month for years. Constant downward pressure instead of getting it all out of the way in one fell swoop. I have been through that with Anavex for years and not pretty or profitable to common shareholders. Every spike will be sold and every setback pounced on heavily by short sellers, no thanks.
There you have it. All boxes checked. 10k should most Definately be filed Monday Jan 4th.
Let's see how NWBO stock performs with that late filing monkey off its back together with January Effect tailwinds.
US Retirement plans for 2021 contributions are now open for busness.
This must little say nearly nothing blurb must have been referring to stem cells.
Ha Ha Let's get further into the speculation weeds and say INMB is afraid of Linda Powers taking over by buying up shares on open market because they see her as becoming a newly minted NWBO Billionaire soon.
No. That's the whole point. It is not a right until triggered by the BOD. It is a deterrent to a hostile takeover so likely will never have to be used.
NWBO is definitely in its trading channel as I see it and has a steep upwards slope.
HF trading Algos control the price movement within a trading day usually but they tend to lose control over longer periods when market sentiment takes over often based on fundamental factors.
Short time periods even daily can give the illusion of falling price when it is just normal movements transversing the channel of a trend. The monthly chart of NWBO is a thing of beauty. Weekly chart looks good as well.
It is an anti-takeover provision. If there is a hostile takeover attempt the IMNB BOD can trigger this by giving each existing shareholder one share of preferred stock for each share of common thereby diluting the entity or entities trying to take over the company by acquiring shares.
The thread of the discussion was "failed trial" as in whether company would need to disclose. People were imprecise in language. Originally I had said a few days ago that "Failing to meet primary endpoint would need to be disclosed." That got muddied up in discussion. Failed trial is an imprecise way of saying a trial did not meet Sat Sig on its Primary Endpoint. That does not mean the company can not proceed with development or even seeking approval based on the results.
People were thinking it is the Company is the one to decide if it failed. The Company decides what to do in the future but the assignment of p values comes from the Statisticians the pass/fail is whether or not p<0.05. A p>0.05 in the primary endpoint is by convention labeled as failed its pre-established primary endpoint. Does not mean it would be impossible to get approval just that it is a materially adverse event to the value of the investment in the case of a Registration Trial for Companies lead or very important drug.
BTW sometimes a very good time to buy into promising Biotechs is after one of these failures. Because often there is a way forward. In biotech there are nearly always bumps in the road. But I see a smooth autobahn ahead for NWBO. There are two options either the Company has not recieved the Statistics Report or they did and at least the primary endpoint is p<0.05. The evidence that I see is that when the results are released the odds are much greater the the results will be good. But we can not say the results must be good because the company has not disclosed a primary endpoint of p greater than 0.05 (not Stat Sig) because we can not know whether they have recieved that determination: the Statistics report. The Company might not have the report yet.
There are 3 options.
1. Company has report= primary endpoint met.
2 Company does not have report= a) primary endpoint met
b) primary endpoint fail.
The preponderance of the evidence we do have is that the trial results will meet primary endpoint but not because they have not released bad news because we have no evidence that they recieved the Independent Statiticians Report.
But I would agree with others that the results of the blinded data from 2018 strongly points to overwhelmingly positive data coming when it is finally released.
This 100% correct and to the precise point and the reason for the requirement that public traded companies must immediately disclose events that a reasonable investor would think would adversely effect the value of the investment.
Failure of the primary endpoint in a trial designed to gain regulatory approval is a bright line determination and a materially adverse event for a companies lead compound. The Company does not look at the data and decide whether or not the trial passed or failed. That determination is made by the agreement of the three separate independent third party statisticians. They get the data and apply it to the pre-specified primary and secondary endpoints and assign a confidence interval against the null hypothesis and specify this as a p value. By convention the pass/fail line is p<0.05. The smaller the p value the less the result was the result of chance and therefore greater SAT SIG results.
This does not mean the company can not move forward with seeking approval but it does greatly reduce the likelyhood of gaining approval of the results of this trial and therefore must be disclosed to investors no matter how many silver linings might exist in the full data or secondary endpoints. Even if those secondary endpoints are so good as to have a good chance of approval. The test is would a reasonable investor likely reason that the failure to reach SAT SIG (fail) would materially negatively impact the investment.
Since it many times would mean another trial of course it is materially adverse.
But what I see as the dangerous assumption in thinking "the trial has not failed because the company has not disclosed a failed trial" is that NWBO has already recieved the report from the Independent Statisticians.
NWBO has not said they have it and the passage of time does not assure they have it. There is no evidence I see that it has been recieved.
I think the Company and Investors do have evidence to be hopeful even confident that the the results will be good and that the primary endpoint as well as secondary endpoints will be achieved.
I am confident of a good statistical report and the very good chances of approval.
If the HGEN-Rem trial fails and I am not saying it will...but if it does I would tend to think it was maybe the Rem that caused the failure. Then on any weakness I would say HGEN might be a good buy on the lower price of the stock. The NIH and Fauci are trying to do anything to push Rem even at the cost of lives it seems. But HGEN being combined with Rem gives HGEN the benefits of that push.
It seems they are determined to sell Rem no matter what but it has not done anything to stop the slide in stock price of Gilead.
That is good. But I have a feeling it would work better without co-administration of Rem.
Any good news for HGEN is good news for CYDY and vice versa.
A big plus for Leron over Lenz is Lenz does not help correct the organ damage caused by Rem. Leron just might. We know the profiteering crowd will push Rem on the patients. So since Rem not trialed with Leron they might stop the Rem before giving the Leron if the patient degrades after the Rem treatment.
Lenz got shackled to Remdesivir. Good move to get the backing of the corona war profiteering gang but but news is the deleterious effects of Rem might mask the good effects of Lenz. The Lilly drug was trialed with Rem and failed.
Also any copy cats can not use any NWBO trial data. They would need to do the clinical trial process over from scratch.
This post is on the right track. If one is investing in Stocks that are volatile one needs to banish any ancient theories about markets being fair or efficient in the short term.
To trade 3 million shares in 15 minutes does not take much more than 10 or 20k shares wash traded back and forth dozens of times a minute by HF trading computers preprogrammed with algorithms to the desired price. The reason is not tax loss selling. This happens several times a week in NWBO and hundreds of others simultaneously.
This is done for day trading profits of the HFT hedge funds and to accumulate shares cheaper by running the stop loss orders. But it goes both ways. They also HF computer wash trade it up as well.
HFT algo hedge funds control the stock price in the short term. The retail trader must be nimble and the retail investor needs to do proper DD and not be fooled by thinking there is fairness in the market. All of this noise smooths out over the long term. For investors buy these dips. Traders need to study the HFT patterns.
It should be illegal but it is not and actually is condoned by the elimination of the uptick rule which made this legal market skimming theft more difficult.
If there is a very strong signal a trial can show SAT SIG with a small N. Example NARCAN it blocks the opioid receptor so rescues opiate overdose almost instantly each and every time. That is a strong signal. If at higher doses blarcamesine cuts frequency and duration of seizures in RETT say by 30-50% that would be a strong signal together with its safety and tolerability profile a trial should not need a large N. Then of course it would be trialed in other indications that trigger seizures. Might also only need a small N for these as well.
An approval for RETT opens the flood gates for greatly expanded uses for blarcamesine.
Beautiful post. I agree 100%.December is Time to accumulate. Let the Sheeple sell. In 30 days Anavex might be up 50% or more. That has been the minimum for years now.
I will back to $20 stock price in 18 months from now. With $49 million no need to cap the share price with periodic sales using LPC. For this reason alone the stock might double in 2021.
Today if I am not mistaken is tax loss witching day. Last day to harvest tax losses for 2020 due to 3 day settlement rule.
Late December has been a STUPENDOUS time to accumulate AVXL. My 2021 AVXL double in price prediction is not so bold if one examines the 3 year weekly chart. AVXL TRIPLED from Dec 2018 to Mar 25 2019. And BINGO! did it again from Dec 2019 to Feb 19, 2020. So do not be surprised if AVXL trades as high $13.50
by June 2021. Mark this post and come back and look in June and call it foolish or wish you had listened. Dec 2018 was a screaming buy. The small boat I loaded at $1.34 is now a large ship of 8x the size with very few trades. In 24 months that ship is 4x bigger on AVXL alone, today after the recent drop. I buy EVERY December this one is no exception.
Never ever ever has AVXL been a better buy or cheaper on a risk adjusted basis as it was on Dec 9 2020 even better than Dec 2018. And today it is nearly as good.
One might do very well by selling one's loosing positions and buying more AVXL this week.
Easy investment choice for me is buy Anavex and hold for years, not advice just explaining what has worked for me. Ships that I have boarded in the past like Arrowhead and Sage have sailed but AVXL is at the dock accepting passengers who know that they might be in for a very exciting and profitable voyage as long as the realize that it will be a journey of 18-24 months and maybe encounter some rough seas along the way.
Good Luck to all and a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Speak the truth always and be appreciated for character and inner beauty.
Truth as beauty is its own reward!
There is big profits in rare indications. Alexion was bought out for $39 billion which compares to Gilead market cap of $77 billion. This is years down the line for AVXL but in 5 years and 3 or 4 approvals for various indications for 2 or 3 Avaxex compounds could be achieved.
Also having your shares at MSSB locks them out from ever being loaned out to short even though you borrowed against them. Shorting and trading on margin is strictly forbidden. Wealth Management only Definately not for traders.
One solution would be to transfer the CYDY shares to a Morgan Stanley Living and Giving Account then can borrow against portfolio equity at attractive rates and never need to sell. Don't discount the fact that Nader said he wants to declare dividends. CytoDyn will generate a lot of cash off existing inventory. Nader owns a lot of shares and he wants dividends. Then he can exercise warrants without selling shares. Think about it. The dividends will move the stock even higher.