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Week 02/10 – V – ATH Across the Board
TRx: 14,367 {vs 13,579; +5.8%} Sector +5.8%
NRx: 6,121 {vs 5,946; +2.94%} Sector +2.44%
Ref: 8,246 {vs 7,633; +8.03%} Sector +7.99%
L (Seriously---WTF ??!!)
TRx: 4,687 {vs 4,157; +12.75%}
NRx: 1,577 {vs 1,379; +14.36%}
GenL:
TRx: 71,410 {vs 67,759; +5.39%}
NRx: 26,644 {vs 26,198; +1.7%}
V TRx Market Share: 15.88% vs 15.88% -- = to ATH
V NRx Market Share: 17.82% vs 17.74% -- new ATH
V Ref Market Share: 14.69% vs 14.69% -- = to ATH
MOGWAI
Why don't you relax and wait until the meeting is over and Jefferies release an equity research update after meeting with AMRN Board...Let's stop speculating and using scare tactics...All will be mentioned in the released research. If there is a hint that AMRN might need financing should red-it continue, it will be mentioned in the report. To make it clearer, firms covering a specific stock with a PT or an update, usually mention at the end something called "Risks to Rating"....If your financing point has any validity, it will be mentioned underneath this segment. If nothing regarding financing is mentioned, you better give it a long rest and apologize from the board for the stupid scare tactics.
HD
I know i am a bit late as answers were posted before me, but i was working the riddle properly on a table :):) --- German Fish...etc
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7NC1yTmZCcHlRODg/view
Invest,
Be long or be a shorty, i don't care about that. That's ur call
In a downtrend market, where the total TRx decreased by 2.97% & NRx decreased by 2.61% while AMRN dropped less than 1% resulting in increased market share in all segments to new ATH, i personally look at those numbers not at a 100 or 200 extra or less scripts.
You will have the right to express yourself and be negative and ironic at the same time by using "Scripts Stuck in a Holding Pattern --- Guess scripts will not have a good week when Halloween hits --- The scripts are the "proof is in the pudding" and its not looking that great" when in back to back data or 3 weeks in a row the market is increasing and AMRN is deteriorating. Other than this scenario/case i strongly recommend you to keep your comments {out of being a worried long, yeah right!!} on a written paper next to you and not share them
Patience is a Virtue
Scripts Update --- Week Ending 25/09/2015
Yom Kippur Jewish Holiday, Sept 22-23 affecting the scripts market, BUT AMRN ATH Market Share in all 3 segments; TRx - NRx & Refills
– V –
TRx:13,579{vs 13,709; -0.95%} Sec -2.97%
NRx:5,946 {vs 6,001; -0.92%} Sec -2.61%
Ref:7,633 {vs 7,708; -0.97%} Sec -3.19%
L:
TRx: 4,157{vs 4,519; -8.13%}
NRx: 1,379{vs 1,501; -7.95%}
GenL:
TRx: 67,759{vs 69,882; -3.04%}
NRx: 26,198{vs 26,921; -2.69%}
V TRx Mkt Sh:15.88% vs 15.56% -- ATH
V NRx Mkt Sh:17.74% vs 17.43% -- ATH
V Ref Mkt Sh:14.69% vs 14.36% -- ATH
Thanks JL for the elaborate reply especially regarding the DEA scheduling determination
HD,
I agree with you and i do believe that this will be as JT said until 2020.
It was just a thought that occurred after reading the blog.
Thanks
JL, Raf & BB
Reading the FDA Law Blog, it clearly mention the below:
"Under that regulation—the validity of which Eisai does not challenge—the exclusivity period for a new drug begins when the FDA issues its letter approving the drug, even if the drug’s manufacturer must await DEA’s scheduling determination before it can bring the drug to market. The regulation does provide for an exception under limited circumstances. But the FDA has interpreted that exception narrowly, and the Court is bound to defer to the agency’s reasonable interpretation of its own regulation."
The regulation does provide for an exception under limited circumstances----could it be the case for AMRN, an exception which will make up the lost period of no decision and later NME decision...just a thought, what do you think guys?
Scripts Update for week ending 18/09
– V –
TRx: 13,709{vs 12,317; +11.30%} Sec +5.51%
NRx: 6,001 {vs 4,928; +21.77%} Sec +11.47%
Ref: 7,708 {vs 7,389; +4.32%} Sec +2.01%
L:
TRx: 4,519{vs 4,296; +5.19%}
NRx: 1,501{vs 1,477; +1.62%}
GenL:
TRx: 69,882{vs 66,894; +4.47%}
NRx: 26,921{vs 24,475; +9.99%}
V TRx Mkt Sh:15.56% vs 14.75% -- (ATH = 15.64%)
V NRx Mkt Sh:17.43% vs 15.96% -- ATH
V Ref Mkt Sh:14.36% vs 14.04% -- (ATH = 14.55%)
BB you were right, OB updated till August, still no exclusivity
Scripts Update Week ending 11-9-2015
– V –
TRx: 12,317{ vs 14,168; -13.06%} Sector -7.82%
NRx: 4,928 { vs 6,053; -18.59%} Sector -11.34%
Ref: 7,389 { vs 8,115; -8.95%} Sector -5.62%
L:
TRx: 4,,296 {vs 4,790; -10.31%}
NRx: 1,,477 {vs 1,503; -1.73%}
GenL:
TRx: 66,894 {vs 71,632; -6.61%}
NRx: 24,475 {vs 27,274; -10.26%}
V TRx Market Share: 14.75% vs 15.64%
V NRx Market Share: 15.96% vs 17.38%
V Ref Market Share: 14.04% vs 14.55%
For the passed 2 years, labour day week showed a decrease in scripts between 6 & 8 percent. Based on that, we can assume that numbers next week will be back to low 13K
Anyhow, just wanted to reply about that and i 2nd you Raf, it is 8 days ahead, still early to talk about it :)
Have a nice weekend y'all
Bolio, it was a normal 5 days week. Next week's data will be for the Labour Day week (ie 4 days week)
Total TRx Sector stands last week at 90,590. Both V & Gen L are @ATH.
Looking back at historic data, the peak of TRX during L years was at 115,497 on March 04, 2011 ie we are still around 22% less than the market prescription peak....V has lots of potential and with red-it we can increase the total market back to those levels and V will be gaining most of this market share.
As stated at all time; Long & Strong + Patience is a virtue
Great Script Numbers, > 14,000 TRx & > 6,000 NRx
ATH Across the Board
Week 04/09 – V –
TRx: 14,168 {vs 13,021; +8.81%} Sec +6.48%
NRx: 6,053 {vs 5,704; +6.12%} Sec +5.34%
Ref: 8,115 {vs 7,317; +10.91%} Sec +7.20%
L:
TRx: 4,790 {vs 4,699; +1.94%}
NRx: 1,503 {vs 1,626; -7.56%}
GenL:
TRx: 71,632 {vs 67,358; +6.35%}
NRx: 27,274 {vs 25,734; +5.98%}
V TRx Mkt Sh:15.64% vs 15.30% ATH
V NRx Mkt Sh:17.38% vs 17.25% = to ATH
V Ref Mkt Sh:14.55% vs 14.07% ATH
JL, I totally agree with you. in fact in yesterday's conference, JT clearly mentioned that their base case scenario is for 2017 and should there be overwhelming results at the 60% interim expected during year 2016, a halt and stoppage of the trial is an option.
FF
Thanks for the link...im still at the beginning i guess, but strange enough, the usual suspects are there in AMRN Case also: Cramer (via AF) - Forbes Articles & definitely naked shorts....gonna continue the rest now :)
Scripts Not Updated yet
Sorry guys, numbers are still not updated and i have to leave the office for today. I guess i will be getting the scripts update from your posts later on.
Welcome everyone, good numbers indeed and i have a feeling this will be the trend moving fwd, new ATH every other week
Scripts Update -- ATH Across the Board
Week 21/08 – V –
TRx: 13,300{vs 12,976; +2.50%}Sec -0.26% -----ATH
NRx: 5,714 {vs 5,606; +1.93%} Sec -0.01% -----ATH
Ref: 7,586 {vs 7,370; +2.93%} Sec -0.42% -----ATH
L:
TRx: 4,616 {vs 4,836; -4.55%}
NRx: 1,549 {vs 1,580; -1.96%}
GenL:
TRx: 67,379 {vs 67,708; -0.49%}
NRx: 25,591 {vs 25,670; -0.31%}
V TRx Mkt Sh:15.59% vs 15.17% ATH
V NRx Mkt Sh:17.39% vs 17.06% ATH
V Ref Mkt Sh:14.47% vs 13.99% ATH
edited -- if my time&sale is accurate, 1.58$ was printed for few seconds, with just 500 shares executed at that price.
I just checked the trading prices on Monday, a total of only 24,900 shares were traded after dropping below 1.70$ in both ways, ie down from 1.70 to 1.58 and back up to 1.69...such a small volume causing this huge drop, whilst on the other hand it needs a huge volume to increase pps back to normal level as before ($2.50 + level)
Ray, ur welcome. A pleasure sharing the numbers with you guys since i have access to. I agree with you, scripts increase with the latest positive developments are the main catalyst in the short term.
The performance lately was mainly due to what is happening to the markets, but i have my doubts regarding the $1.58 level (printed on Monday) basically due to the fact that at such levels, we will have a market cap of around $292 million (with 185m shares outstanding) and assuming a total yearly sales in 2015 of around 75m-80m, a 5 to 6 times multiple will give us a fair valuation of around $450m, ie a price of $2.40 - $2.50 which is the level we were stuck at lately
(of course that is a basic assumption without taking into consideration debt and cash on hands, inventories...etc)
Again, as you stated, scripts are the main catalyst for the near future until we reach interim red-it in 2016
Short Interest Update: -0.68%
14/8/2015: 22,993,641 Change: -157,146 Days to Cover: 9.05
31/7/2015: 23,150,787 Change: -175,567 Days to Cover: 27.83
15/7/2015: 23,326,354 Change: +70,945 Days to Cover: 14.15
It is really astonishing that with the 1A Win on 7/8/15 (included in the above data update), the short interest didn't drop by a way larger number. AMRN is in hands of MM & Shorts.
I guess once all legal issues are finalized and we surpass them officially (ie final ruling / compromise of 1A, denial of Watson, OB update or any official letter from FDA regarding NCE...etc), the stock can start a fresh and unobstructed positive momentum and increase in price until we reach the Reduce-IT
JL, true that regarding the ETFs. I have no idea also about which ones include AMRN.
As for the VXX, it tracks the performance of the VIX Short-Term Futures™ Index Total Return (the Volatility Index) which benefit from such time when the market is extremely volatile. VXX reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500® at various points along the volatility forward curve. This might be a good hedge to long position if uncertainly is building or markets are at some very high valuation
AMRN Performance;
I mentioned the below at ST before market open, and i was right. The irrational was obvious with the selling down to 1.58$
"mkt hammered all over the board,expect lots of margin calls and some irrational liquidation of AMRN position to cover losses elsewhere"
Glad i benefited loads from this by holding the volatility ETF VXX since last Wednesday, Today +14% now, reached +36% earlier :):)
Long & Strong in AMRN, Patience is a virtue
Typing error, TRx of V is down 1.87 (-1.87%) instead of -3.78%. My bad, sorry
V Data Comparison for 1Y;
TRx +58.22%
NRx +55.41%
Ref +60.49%
From 3-Jan-14 till 15-Aug-14 VS. 2-Jan-15 till 14-Aug-15
Total TRx= 237,176 / 375,271
Total NRx= 105,852 / 164,505
Total Ref= 131,324 / 210,766
Scripts Update for Week ending 14/08
Scripts down all over the board, but V is gaining good market share
– V –
TRx: 12,976 {vs 13,223; -3.78%} Sector -3.46%
NRx: 5,606 {vs 5,713; -1.87 %} Sector -3.08%
Ref: 7,370 {vs 7,510; -1.86%} Sector -3.69%
L:
TRx: 4,836 {vs 5,159; -6.26%}
NRx: 1,580 {vs 1,701; -7.11%}
GenL:
TRx: 67,708 {vs 70,199; -3.55%}
NRx: 25,670 {vs 26,486; -3.08%}
V TRx Market Share:15.17% vs 14.93% ATH
V NRx Market Share:17.06% vs 16.85% ATH
V Ref Market Share:13.99% vs 13.73% (14.01% was the ATH)
BB,
What you mentioned is a very possible scenario, but is this the best for the company? I mean tie everything to reduce-it, and i know if unsuccessful that will be the end of the company, but even waiting for the outcome of red-it to get NCE would be bad for the company.
Lets suppose red-it failed, but we still have V approved (marine & off label by physicians) and that should be protected till 2020 with NCE & patents mostly till 2030....> V sold as trgy lowering drug which have an existing market and stream of revenue from sales. But in your scenario, the company will be gone way earlier than 2020 if red-it fail....
I dunno if the point im trying to make is clear, but just wanted to drop a quick msg whilst working
Looking forward for your insight
OB updated till July-15, no NCE mention
JL, I agree with you, that's why I said before, it is not 100% official, which will be confirmed by the OB this month, the next....it is in the pocket
Coz the market hates uncertainty: NCE still not 100% official - 1A, We are still in the appeal period of 60 days - Scripts & Sales increase to follow and will be highly watched by the market.
Once those are over and we are approaching the end of the year and into Q1 2016, you will see more appetite and funds reinvesting in the stock along with retail investor who will catch the trend a bit later
That's my personal opinion :)
Broadfin Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Increased positions in AMRN (to ~3.5 mln from ~1 mln)
Market Share
Sorry wasn't at my desk all day, just came back....good numbers;
V TRx Mkt Sh:14.93% vs 14.60% ATH
V NRx Mkt Sh:16.85% vs 16.30% ATH
V Ref Mkt Sh:13..73% vs 13.53% (14.01% was the ATH)
You're welcome guys. The minimum is to share these updates since i have access to. Long & Strong and as i mentioned several times before, Patience is a Virtue :):)
HC Wainwright:
While this legal win is not a formal FDA label, we remind investors that: (1) until last week, ANCHOR was a zero (at least between now and REDUCE-IT); (2) the ANCHOR market (high-TG) is ~10x of the MARINE market (very-high-TG); and (3) any uptake in this massive market should be a previously-unexpected topline gain.
Overall, our first and foremost bull thesis and primary driver of our PT remains the win of the REDUCE-IT study. However, in the near term, we note to investors that the ability to legally promote ANCHOR off-label should grant Amarin a fraction of its structural value attributable to ANCHOR that evaporated following the 2013 AdCom. In our view, this development should buoy the stock somewhere between where it was trading earlier this year prior to the ruling, while ANCHOR was perceived as a zero ($1-2), and where it was trading in 2013 between the ANCHOR study win and the AdCom, while expectations for a formal label expansion were a net positive ($6-8). If not immediately (as it should happen, in our view), we believe that this structural value is poised to be restored in stepwise fashion during the next couple of quarters, as the company leverages the current MARINE label and ANCHOR literature to make an entrance into the lucrative high-TG space.
HC Wainwright Update: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7U1RiUFZEUWcxMGc/view
SunTrust Interesting Point: Five yrs. of NCE exclusivity removes generic risk & raises the probability that AMRN turns a profit in ‘16E & exceeds our ‘20E sales of $558M. If ‘20E sales/EPS rise to $750M/$1.79, our $6PT would increase to $10. The next catalyst is REDUCEIT interim analysis in ‘16, which is a free call option. Maintain Buy/$6PT.
SunTrust Update #3: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7MEh3OHE0N2IxVDQ/view
SunTrust Update #2: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1gB2YESBJV7VW1aVHEwMXVzaVU/view