Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

HC Wainwright:
While this legal win is not a formal FDA label, we remind investors that: (1) until last week, ANCHOR was a zero (at least between now and REDUCE-IT); (2) the ANCHOR market (high-TG) is ~10x of the MARINE market (very-high-TG); and (3) any uptake in this massive market should be a previously-unexpected topline gain.

Overall, our first and foremost bull thesis and primary driver of our PT remains the win of the REDUCE-IT study. However, in the near term, we note to investors that the ability to legally promote ANCHOR off-label should grant Amarin a fraction of its structural value attributable to ANCHOR that evaporated following the 2013 AdCom. In our view, this development should buoy the stock somewhere between where it was trading earlier this year prior to the ruling, while ANCHOR was perceived as a zero ($1-2), and where it was trading in 2013 between the ANCHOR study win and the AdCom, while expectations for a formal label expansion were a net positive ($6-8). If not immediately (as it should happen, in our view), we believe that this structural value is poised to be restored in stepwise fashion during the next couple of quarters, as the company leverages the current MARINE label and ANCHOR literature to make an entrance into the lucrative high-TG space.