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re: "you can't have it both ways"
Yes I can. What makes you think that users of itaniC only have itaniC machines in house ? What makes you think that fall out for inteL will be restricted to itaniC considerations and decisions only ?
Regards,
DARBES
re: "their finances are stronger"
UUUHHH ??? No! Not even I would say that. Gonna get stronger soon...YES. Stronger now..NO!
Regards,
DARBES
re: "I can only assume he is stating the obvious that its harder to get market share back than it is to keep it"
If you are one of those who suffered data corruption and spontaneous reboots in mission critical applications, it might well be impossible to win that market share back. At the very least inteL's image of shiny invincibility has been severely tarnished.
Some of the fall out from this has to benefit AMD.
Regards,
DARBES
Imagine, if you would, the impact on AMD's revenues and, hence, earnings of a 20% positive delta on its ASPs. I am not contending that such a delta is likely; but it is very possible based on what both you and I have detected. I hope that you get a lot of work done during the next few weeks. Perhaps AMD will enjoy some positive price action during that period.
Regards,
DARBES
re: "don´t expect any surprises until the earnings CC, neither on the financial nor on the product side"
We just might get a positive surprise on the stock price action side.
Regards,
DARBES
On the other hand, I forgot, iTs market share was negligible; and, hence, could not matter very much.
Regards,
DARBES
"Once market share is gone, it is gone"
UUUUHHHH ??? Does that apply to the itaniC market that inteL "temporarily" walked away from when its overclocked fiascos were corrupting data and causing spontaneous reboots in mission critical applications ?
Regards,
DARBES
re: "What are you waiting for? "
I hope that I am not waiting for Godot. Though waiting for AMD common to start going up seems like it sometimes.
However:
I have studied the structure of pricing and sources: In the past AMD has often had limited offerings in the high speed bin ranges. Pricing on these rivaled comparable offerings from inteL due to limited supply. The numbers of sources were very limited and continuity of pricing between vendors was sporadic. In retrospect, this pattern indicated profiteering on the part of vendors due to the very limited supply. Not good! This time, the high end is characterized by by ample discounts; many pages of vendors on PriceWatch; and a fairly tight price distribution. To me, this indicates an active market with very good product flow.
You might want to try to do a parallel analysis to my own. Look at various speed/price grade CPUs. Count pages of vendors for each. Make a judgement on price distribution among them. More than on half of them falling within a 10% price range indicates, to me, a very active and healthy market.
You might want to guesstimate a reasonable sales weighted ASP to AMD then multiply by a guesstimate of total CPU sales. I get wildly divergent numbers depending on my assumptions.
Do let me know what you get.
In past quarters AMD sold a lot of obsolete CPUs into distribution to such entities as Avnet and Arrow. AMD might have been much better off if it had burned them, since it produced very low cost market overhang that had to degrade AMD's potential market. My guess is that virtually all of these are now gone.
I hope that these suggested mental exercises have been of some use to you.
Regards,
DARBES
I have to confess that I am both gratified and encouraged by your response. The data that you cite is new to me. Though what I have been trying to decipher is hardly orthogonal to your data, it is most certainly linearly independent to it. I anxiously await the motivation to explain it to you, if you have any interest.
Also, not long ago Moodys expressed an intention to re-evaluate AMD's credit worthiness. The results of that seem to be overdue. The delay is almost encouraging. Probably, part of the reason for the delay is the back end loading of this quarter and Moodys desire to avoid the need to rapidly redo and restate such an effort. No guarantees here; but, so far so good.
Last year, about this time, AMD warned twice within about two weeks. We should know in a few days if things are once again grim. Here too, so far, so good.
Ruiz is not new to turn arounds. About a decade ago he took over the helm of the semiconductor division at Motorola after an individual by the name of Fisher ran it into the ground just before leaving for the helm of Kodak where he seemed to run it into the ground. By all reasonable measures, Ruiz was extremely successful.
We shall see if he is still up to the job at AMD.
Regards,
DARBES
re: "I made the mistake several times to try and estimate ASPs from pricewatch pricing and other sources, but it doesn´t work that way, as I had to learn at each of the following CCs. As far as that is concerned, always expect the worst, and there will be a small chance of not getting dissapointed at the CC
So far, I´ve been (strongly) dissapointed with the quarterly earnings for the last six quarters. This time, I won´t put my hopes up, I expect to be disappointed. Will be interesting to see what happens then "
I too have had many disappointments over about eight years. (Here it comes...one of the most dangerous statements in investing.) This time, however, I believe that it is different. Ruiz is in charge and we are no longer suffering the legacy of Jerry. To be sure, we suffer his legacy with respect to evaluation by the investment community of AMD's credibility. That is why the market, I contend, is so inefficient at placing a proper value on the shares. (No doubt, some on this thread will contend here that inefficiency is at assigning any value to the shares greater than zero.) What I have seen that is different is a, hopefully significant, structural difference in the pricing among participants on PriceWatch. If I am correct, I will be happy to share the "source code" to my thinking with you, after the fact. If I am not correct, such an excercise will be a tedious and useless exposition of nonesense. Much appears to be different, but this does not guarantee that my conclusions are correct. There are always many erroneous ways of interpreting any pattern of facts. I, obviously, believe that I see significant departures from the past; however, there is no guarantee that my interpretation is correct. One thing that I am almost confident of is that ASPs are going to be higher. How much higher and, the real wild card, how many CPUs have been sold ? We must wait for more data.
Regards and good luck,
DARBES
Almost everything seems to be in place for a very bright future for AMD. What is missing is any sense of certainty of earnings or even survival in the minds of investors and ANALysts. I would hope that the rude surprise that the price of the stock implies does not happen. The CPU price listings on PriceWatch (numbers of dealers and price slope between dealers) would seem to imply ASPs near $100 . The larger unknown is how many are being sold. Again, the PriceWatch listings would imply that sales are noticeably better than disappointing. A news story, some weeks ago, about Ruiz being interviewed in the Flash memory factory running at capacity also implies higher Flash revenues than for Q1 .
I guess revenues for Q2 of near $740 million without Opteron or Alchemy contributions. Assuming another $30 million or so I get near break even for the quarter.
Anyone else have any thoughts on this ?
Regards,
DARBES
Would someone please tell the FUDD that he is on ignore.
Regards,
DARBES
Sorry...really! I stand (or sit) corrected.
Regards,
DARBES
re: "excitement about A64 before the launch"
I suspect that some adult diapers need changing over at inteL.
Regards,
DARBES
It is there. I just erased all of my temp files and found it again.
Regards,
DARBES
re: just a refresh of an older line?
HUH?
Are you really paying attention to what is happening? How could it be a refresh of an older line using a new chip architecture, on a brand new board, using a chipset that does not even resemble anything in the past ?
DARBES
It is still there: http://h20000.www2.hp.com/bc/docs/support/SupportManual/bph08342/bph08342.pdf
Regards,
DARBES
re: "Did you hear about woman who made very significant burns"
Did not that woman start out that story as a man?
Regards,
DARBES
AMD is probably about to outperform inteL.
Regards,
DARBES
re: "the pickled Monkey Bladder of wireless solutions" and "Intel's usual gullible moron constituency"
Please Dan3, stop holding back. Tell us what you really think.
Regards,
DARBES
re: テスト結果から、Opeteronプロセッサは、単一CPUでの高速性に優れていることに加えて、複数のプロセッサを使用した並列計算におけるスケーラビリティが極めて優れており、並列計算において圧倒的に優れたパフォーマンスを発揮していることがわかります。
このような並列計算における優秀性は、CPUがメモリコントローラを内蔵しており、さらに、ハイパートランスポートによりCPU間が高速リンクで結合されているOpteronプロセッサの優れたアーキテクチャを証明していると言うことができます。
以上のように Opteron プロセッサは並列計算において特に優れた性能を発揮します。
Opteron プロセッサは64ビットプロセッサであり、これまで大規模計算分野において問題となっていた32ビットプロセッサのメモリ使用量制限の問題も回避できる事から、PCクラスタを使用した科学技術計算分野での計算用途などにおいては絶大な威力を発揮するものと考えられます。
さらにOpteron プロセッサの低価格性を考慮すると、現存する各種CPUの中では群を抜いたコストパフォーマンスを有していると言えます。
もちろん、コンシュマー用途など科学技術計算分野以外の用途においても各種アプリケーションの使用メモリは増大の一途を辿っており、Opteron プロセッサのパフォーマンスは絶大な威力を発揮する事でしょう。
また、Opteron プロセッサは Xeon プロセッサのおよそ半分のクロック周波数であるにもかかわらずこのような高性能を発揮している事から、今後のクロック周波数向上による性能アップにも大いに期待されます。
WOW!!!!!!!
(edit) Just what the HEY is going on over at the SI thread since the clowns that took it over from here, took it over ?
It seems to be slow and down in one way or another much more often.
Ha! I made the same mistake over on SI. It does show up as current on a web search. May 24th date, no less.
My bad too.
Regards,
DARBES
re: "...apparently"
Thank you.
Regards,
DARBES
the fud (note: all lower case) seems to want attention. I am totally bored by him. Would someone else please entertain him...PLEASE!!!
Regards,
DARBES
re: "I will start taking you seriously"
I reallly do not care whether you do or you do not.
(edit) re: "What are we gonna do????"
Why do not try going away for a while ? In other words: Give it a rest. Many of us would appreciate it. Your last post was rude, tedious, and unnecessary.
You really are not a good inteL representative/defender. I suspect that gordoN moorE or even andY grovE hisselF would gringe if theY could see how you represent inteL on this thread.
DARBES
re: "You'll need a startup to come along and change the world."
Yeah ! Like IBM !
Regards,
DARBES
re: "don't think much of Cringley" I presented Cringely's article as an eloquent expression of my own thoughts and not as an "appeal to authority" in lieu of logic and facts argument. The insider coincident almost universal "bailing" activity would seem to support my thesis.
re: "good time to purchase" Next week might just be interesting. We are coming up on one month post Opteron introduction. Things could be going well. (Or they may not be.)
re: "Intel has a lot of question marks going foward" I suspect more question marks than you probably attribute. Though inteL has a royalty free license to produce Opteron clones, it is less than clear that iT could do it transparently. inteL does not have a track record at cloning. iT does not have SOI technology. iT does not have hypertransport. iT has not yet developed an on chip memory controller. inteL is so top heavy that were AMD64 to take off iT would probably collapse of iTs own weight.
STAY TUNED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Regards,
DARBES
re: "try your best to enlighten the posters here. After all, we're part of the same big family now"
I will. Same family perhaps...though clearly not all resulting from marriage, nor all from the same fine sire (or mare).
Regards,
DARBES
re: "should Intel introduce an alternative x86-64 (if Yamhill isn't AMD64) then you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be a Microsoft OS available for it"
At he risk of confusing you and some others who post regularly on this thread with facts and sound reasoning, do go to the following links:
1. http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20021226.html I believe that Cringely has it correctly. inteL is, in reality, forced to do whatever the VOLE wills.
2. The VOLE apparently gave cipzillA a corporate "EEEFFFF EEEYYYUUU" when it informed iT last Fall that the VOLE would only support one set of X86-64 extensions and that it was already determined to be what was to later be named AMD64.
It was not too coincidently that inteL pulled the plug on yamhilL at that time and that is not all that happened:
Do see: http://biz.yahoo.com/t/i/intc.html and note all of the heavy insider "PLANNED" (OH! How I do love that word.) sales that ensued.
If you are not convinced, have a look at: http://biz.yahoo.com/t/a/amd.html and do note the coincidental insider purchases. Even Jerry hisself, who historically only sells AMD common, was buying. I believe he still holds that stock.
inteL insiders have lately been selling again around the introduction time of Opteron, though not nearly as heavily and universally as last Fall.
Regards,
DARBES
re: "DARBES, would you like to clarify your rather occult remark?"
No! And please do not supply me with definitions. I do have a command of and an understanding of the King's (or Queen's, for that matter) English.
Regards,
DARBES
(edit) re: "yamhilL is the future, that's why wE are skipping Athlon64"
If theY say this, theY will also have to admit that there will be no Microsoft operating system for iT.
re: "This scenerio would be quite a battle"
I suspect that it would be more like a cap pistol shoot out.
Regards,
DARBES
deleted...this furschlugginer board does not handle as smoothly as those on SI.
Regards,
DARBES