Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[DARBES]

re: "I made the mistake several times to try and estimate ASPs from pricewatch pricing and other sources, but it doesn´t work that way, as I had to learn at each of the following CCs. As far as that is concerned, always expect the worst, and there will be a small chance of not getting dissapointed at the CC

So far, I´ve been (strongly) dissapointed with the quarterly earnings for the last six quarters. This time, I won´t put my hopes up, I expect to be disappointed. Will be interesting to see what happens then "

I too have had many disappointments over about eight years. (Here it comes...one of the most dangerous statements in investing.) This time, however, I believe that it is different. Ruiz is in charge and we are no longer suffering the legacy of Jerry. To be sure, we suffer his legacy with respect to evaluation by the investment community of AMD's credibility. That is why the market, I contend, is so inefficient at placing a proper value on the shares. (No doubt, some on this thread will contend here that inefficiency is at assigning any value to the shares greater than zero.) What I have seen that is different is a, hopefully significant, structural difference in the pricing among participants on PriceWatch. If I am correct, I will be happy to share the "source code" to my thinking with you, after the fact. If I am not correct, such an excercise will be a tedious and useless exposition of nonesense. Much appears to be different, but this does not guarantee that my conclusions are correct. There are always many erroneous ways of interpreting any pattern of facts. I, obviously, believe that I see significant departures from the past; however, there is no guarantee that my interpretation is correct. One thing that I am almost confident of is that ASPs are going to be higher. How much higher and, the real wild card, how many CPUs have been sold ? We must wait for more data.

Regards and good luck,

DARBES