Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[DARBES]

re: "What are you waiting for? "

I hope that I am not waiting for Godot. Though waiting for AMD common to start going up seems like it sometimes.

However:

I have studied the structure of pricing and sources: In the past AMD has often had limited offerings in the high speed bin ranges. Pricing on these rivaled comparable offerings from inteL due to limited supply. The numbers of sources were very limited and continuity of pricing between vendors was sporadic. In retrospect, this pattern indicated profiteering on the part of vendors due to the very limited supply. Not good! This time, the high end is characterized by by ample discounts; many pages of vendors on PriceWatch; and a fairly tight price distribution. To me, this indicates an active market with very good product flow.

You might want to try to do a parallel analysis to my own. Look at various speed/price grade CPUs. Count pages of vendors for each. Make a judgement on price distribution among them. More than on half of them falling within a 10% price range indicates, to me, a very active and healthy market.

You might want to guesstimate a reasonable sales weighted ASP to AMD then multiply by a guesstimate of total CPU sales. I get wildly divergent numbers depending on my assumptions.

Do let me know what you get.

In past quarters AMD sold a lot of obsolete CPUs into distribution to such entities as Avnet and Arrow. AMD might have been much better off if it had burned them, since it produced very low cost market overhang that had to degrade AMD's potential market. My guess is that virtually all of these are now gone.

I hope that these suggested mental exercises have been of some use to you.

Regards,

DARBES