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EDAC...14c/4th Q for $4.31 stock. Not too shaby. Would have liked to have seen operating margins increase a bit more. Good that they forsee enough growth to continue buying more production equipment. Also nice to see backlog growing from 3rd Q. Another quarter like this and the stock will be off the OTC:BB soon. That'd be nice.
Dave
EDAC...they're advertising on careerbuilder.com for positions. It says under the operator position "solid amount of overtime available". That should be a good sign.
http://www.careerbuilder.com/JobSeeker/Jobs/JobDetails.aspx?CiBookMark=1&dv=dv&sfascc=edac&a...
Littlefishl...EDAC...Earnings should be soon. You're probably right in that there will be no pre-announcement. They'll just "pop" up during the day sometime. Uugh.
Doesn't look like anyone is wanting to sell any shares though at the bid.
Dave
Yesterday's drop put in perspective.....During a normal year, the Dow has a 2% drop EIGHT times per year. It averages a 5% drop ONE time per year.
What's crazy about yesterday is that it had been 48 MONTHS since the last 2% one-day drop and since 9/11 since the last 5% one-day drop.
Dave
OT..Trading/Beer/Ethanol connection...........They discussed this on CNBC yesterday but I didn't want to waste space on the board mentioning it. However, I figure today it'll be alright.
With the increasing usage of ethanol, more farmers are changing the crops they plant to corn to take advantage of it's increased price. This include barley (which the price for it is pretty constant). As it's supply is diminished it's cost will start to increase this year. That means your beer and whiskey could possibly be going up. Then what's a VMC investor supposed to drown his/hers sorrows with on days like today?
Link to article on subject:
http://english.pravda.ru/news/business/10-01-2007/86293-beer_prices-0
Larrybaz..bvsn..$1.96...new 52 week intraday high! (I don't own it just looked at it). Heck, when a stock has been beaten down from over $800 (in 2000) what does it care if the Dow drops 400 points.
What's the saying....buy stocks that are strong on weak days for they will carry the market forward on a rebound.
Dave
EDAC...$4.50...hit a new 52 week high.
Dave
Oil/Gas inventory #'s...The stronger than expected drawdown in gasoline will help keep oil around $60 for awhile. The expected drawdown of 223Bcf in NG puts up only 182Bcf above 5 year average. Still has a way to go, but much better than last year. Should give support to the price.
Overall, there has been some slowdown in drilling in the U.S. The numbers are solidifying enough in oil and NG that I don't see the environment getting worse.
Dave
cleverrox..EDAC..at that level of volume, Moses's 400K shares really aren't meaningful. He's been pretty good about not selling large blocks at once so at a higher volume they could easily be absorbed.
Nothing like a microcap stock that has 52 week closing highs on increasing volume. Sets it up nicely for a potential......"ah, I'm just day dreaming now"...KRSL run if earnings come out strong with solid guidance. The odds of good numbers are a possibility. Why?
1. The company made a point of pre-announcing revenue.
2. The company continues to invest in more equipment for some reason and I assume it is for growth.
3. Aerospace industry is doing booming business right now (and then some).
It should be fun to watch if nothing else.
Dave
EDAC...Mandjb...I'm hoping Moses sells a bunch here soon. Sure would like more around $4. EDAC just closed at $4.40---the highest closing price in 1 1/2 years!
Dave
El Nino out, La Nina in.......
I'd read the other day where El Nino was breaking down quickly (temperatures in the Pacific currents were cooling). Now the long range forecasts show in it's place a La Nina forming.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyid=2007-02-16T205525Z_01_N...
Grain/soy bean commodities traders are already jumping on it:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/11/bloomberg/bxcom.php
2005 Hurricane season was a weak La Nina season.
Dave
cleveroxx..EDAC..some of the good fortune of KRSL may be carrying over into EDAC. (EDAC at $4 a new 6 month high today) The aerospace service industry is strong right now. It'd sure be nice if EDAC's gross margins hit the same 25% as KRSL (KRSL grew from 18.1% last Q to the 25% this Q).
littlefishl...EDAC...highest volume today since May 2, 2006 (which did 88K shares). I could see it making a run after earnings if guidance is good. The key will be if you can take the $11M in revenue (and whatever net income is) and multiple it by 4 quarters and toss in some more growth. With that it then has a chance to get back to the Nasdaq later this year (I believe they were on it many moons ago).
Also, the Conneticut "company ratings" for the state will be out this Spring. EDAC was #13 last year of best run companies (based on growth, debt.....). Should do better this year. Gives a sense of security to buyers for such a smallcap company.
Dave
EDAC...Hweb2/littlefish...I've been sneaking in some buys the last couple weeks. I like the fact that the company is continuing to invest in equipment for projected growth.
Dave
NG supplies: Lehman Analyst 2/6/2007. Analyst puts storage numbers on March 30th (end of heating season) for 2007 season only 100Bcf above 5 yr average.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&mn=40626&pt=msg&mid=1376666
R59...NG futures...March 30th reporting date is considedered the end of winter. Currently for 2007 NG reserves are sitting at 2571Bcf. The 5 year average on March 30th is 1232Bcf. Last years number on March 30th is 1696Bcf.
For 2007 to reach 2006 numbers we would need to draw out 875Bcf in the next 9 drawdowns to March 30th. We will easily do this. This Thursday and next Thursday should have drawdowns of over 200Bcf +. The week after around 150Bcf. That would leave less than 300Bcf over the remaining 6 weeks. Easy. Conclusion: On March 30th, 2007 NG reserves will be below 2006 numbers.
For 2007 to reach 5 yr average numbers we would need to draw out 1339Bcf in the next 9 drawdowns to March 30th. We won't do this, however it will be within 250Bcf. Accuweather has below normal temperatures forecast for 30 days for the midwest and east coast and 90 day below normal temperatures for east coast.
I could easily see NG spiking over $8 in the next two weeks and then settling back down into the low $7's as the contract expires the end of February. If we drew down, say 250Bcf this Thursday, I see it hitting $8.50 intraday. Then in March I can see it go to the $6's, but my opinion is that it does not go below $6 this Spring at all. We didn't go below $6 last year in the Spring and we will end this winter below last year's numbers.
Also, El Nino is weakening which then brings hurricane season back into effect and it's possibilities on supply disruption. This will keep traders wary of pushing NG prices too low.
cleverrox...EDAC.OB. This could be one of those stocks that comes out at 15 cents/share in early March (for 4th Q report)and everyone then jumps on the bandwagon. When in reality you could have boarded the ride a month ahead of time. The key to EDAC is whether the $11M is a one shot deal or ongoing. It's a good sign that they are continuing to increase their capital expenditures because of what they perceive the future to be.
Dave
TCHC....it might have to do with the National Weather Service coming out today and saying that El Nino is weakening. It's one of the reasons why NG futures are up 40 cents. If El Nino disappears than there is no chance of a non-hurricane season like last year. The opposite is more likely if Gulf waters are very warm like 2005.
It's a possible answer.
Dave
OT..Dow 30 bull market is 1500 days long now (the 3rd longest since 1900). There hasn't been a 2% correction since July 2006 (longest stretch of days in history).
CNBC tossed these stats out.
Dave
Oil $52.20 right now....For those that follow Steve Forbes idea that oil is going to go to $40 because of all the oil coming to market......remember to ask who is going to pay for the billion dollar projects in Saudi Arabia to increase capacity in the years to come. It won't be them if oil is $40. Also, who is going to sell oil from Canada from the Oil Sands area if it cost more to produce than sell.
However, I think hedge funds are in the process of making monster money for themselves by forcing anyone long to cover at any cost. I've given up on predicting the bottom. It will occur though. Then the next SERIOUS flair geopolitically will cause oil to pop up several dollars as the shorts get squeezed back. That might be the time to sell any energy holdings (that you hold short term) and wait it all out.
Ah, the games that we play!
Oil Futures: Battle forming........from article today.........
"Large speculators, mostly commodity funds, have been betting prices will fall, while commercial accounts -- companies that deal with oil in their business and use the market to hedge losses -- are largely betting on a rebound.
Last week, large speculators added more than three times as many short positions (bets that prices will fall) than long positions (bets that prices will rise), and commercials added nearly twice as many long positions as shorts, according to Nymex open interest data.
"Funds seem to be selling as aggressively as they once had bought. They have accumulated a large line of shorts, and it continues to grow," wrote Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover in a research note. "Commercial accounts were buying, but they also sold new shorts. There was no long liquidation and that could lead to huge losses for longs who have not yet taken losses. They seem to have doubled up their long positions, which could be deadly."
"one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century." Bastardi, a long-range forecaster for Accuweather, says that it is a slim, but a possible forecast for the rest of winter.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1
Take it for what it is worth.
Dave
ASEI..new backscatter X-ray in airports. A new pilot program is starting in Phoenix airport. You'll see this in the news this weekend (on Yahoo today, USA today)---shows pictures of you naked for the most part at the airport. ASEI is the company making them. It is not a value microcap (p/e of 20, but market cap only $537M). Thought it might be interesting to bring to the board, especially on a weekend.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-12-26-backscatter_x.htm?csp=34
Oil Service stocks, deep water drillers. Oil stabilized today, OIH for the oil service sector was up .57%. The OIH is made up of 17 stocks. The #1 gainer was WFT (up 2.55%, but it also was slaughtered this week and hit a new 52 week low yesterday. I look at today as a rebound).
#2, #3, #4, and #5 on the list (ESV +1.88%, DO +1.68%, GSF +1.68% and RIG +1.3%) are all deep water oil related drillers.
My thought is that on the first sign of any rebound (I'm not necessarily saying today was a long-term trend), watch to see who are the leaders.
In comparison, HAL BHI SLB, were all negative. For some smallcaps, ALY was down again, BRNC hit 52 week low, FTK was up a little.
2morrowsGains...ALY...they may have a hard time selling those 4.5M shares in their recently announced secondary if NG prices continue to weaken (due to ALY's large exposure to NG drilling in North America). Or, at least, have a hard time selling them above $20.
What do you think?
R59..NG futures..just to give you a head's up. A real Arctic front may be coming to the U.S. You know how fickle NG gas is. It may pop up big in price as it approaches (then drop afterwards). The media will play it up big if nothing else (assuming it holds true). The following is for Duluth, MN. It's the coldest weather they have had in years (windchills around 30 below by January 12th)---I have relatives there, but it is also the location where a lot of Arctic fronts first enter into the U.S.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipcode=55801&...
Cold finally coming? Might be too little, too late, but Accuweather has it finally reaching "negative degrees F" in upper Minnesota by around January 10th or so (that's for the lows, highs are going to be in the low teens). That's a change from my relatives BBQing on Xmas there because the weather was so nice!
I always use Duluth, MN as my cold weather indicator. It's usually the first place in the U.S. that gets hit with an Arctic front.
However, knowing the way El Nino has been playing out, the prediction will probably be wrong and my relatives will be "polar bear" swimming in January while working on their tans.
Dave
R59...NG price...under $6 is a given. The real question is when does it go under $5 in 2007? There is becoming a strong possibility of it ending the winter with over 800 Bcf over the 5 year average. The 5 yr average bottom in storage is usually reached on March 31 at 1041Bcf. Last year it bottomed at 1695Bcf. We are on pace to be above that number (currently 8%+ above last years surplus).
January indicators show mild temperatures reigning throughout the U.S.---comparable to December. El Nino came on stronger than Accuweather thought (I give credit to the U.S. National Weather forecast that did predict a strong El Nino).
Before long, winter will be past and any chance of a prolonged cold spell disappeared. Then, unless a major hurricane hits the gas producing area of the Gulf, the maximum capacity of 3700Bcf that everyone was afraid of this last fall will most likely be reached in late 2007 (and remember, we may still have a strong El Nino which diminishes strong hurricanes).
Dave
OT: Thank you all for the replies. EOM
OT: Q for board on special dividend.....Since today is kind of a slow day, I'd appreciate it if someone could answer a question for me.
Hypothetical scenario: A company announces a special cash dividend payable to shareholders of record on January 5th, and then the dividend will be distributed on January 19th....if I own the stock on January 5th, but say sell it on the 10th, do I still get the dividend on the 19th?
Thanks in advance,
Dave
GMXR short. I posted awhile ago about how it was overextended at $45 with NG supplies so high. Seems the market has agreed (especially now that NG futures are below $7 during winter!). Stock now in the $36's.
My thinking now is the same as 10bagger....in the oil/gas service sector to choose those companies related to deep water drilling...RIG, DO. Both of these trade with low p/e's and have extended long-term contracts already signed that take into account increases in daily rate. OPEC seems to have enough of a backbone to keep oil in the $60 range. I'd just choose companies that limit your exposure to NG until it finally corrects the surplus problem.
PPI results without car sales added in.........
"The volatility in the motor vehicle category of the PPI has gotten totally out of hand," wrote David Greenlaw, an economist at Morgan Stanley, in an email. "These data should be dismissed out of hand."
Car prices rose 2.2% in November after falling 2.3% in October. Light truck prices rose a record 13.7% following October's 9.7% decline.
"The sharp swings that now appear almost every month are inconsistent with pricing patterns in the real world," Greenlaw said. "The problem appears to reflect sampling."
"Stripping motor vehicles out, it looks like the core PPI was up a 'low'" 0.2%, following a series of flat or up 0.1% readings core ex-motor vehicles in prior months," Stanley said. "So, today's spike was not a broad-based affair."
2007...First prediction of hurricanes--take it for what it is worth.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061207/us_nm/hurricanes_forecast_dc
Next 4 NG drawdowns from 5yr avg., over the next 4 weeks, are -111bcf, -120, -130, and -100. Somehow, seeing the 14 day forecast from Accuweather, I don't see us drawing down those levels from storage. Next week will be a solid drawdown (based on the cold experienced from last Sunday to this Saturday), but after that?????? Going to be interesting.
If OPEC cuts production (and, as a result, oil goes up some more), I can see the divergence of oil prices vs natural gas prices becoming very wide again.
R59..NG futures...Your $9 short may be the top for the winter! I saw a report where that commented that if this winter ends up like last winter, NG futures will close winter below $5. Instead of ending the winter up +400bcf, we could end up +600bcf.
Reason for price drop: Once it becomes obvious, there will be absolutely no risk of running out of NG this winter. There will be absolutely no risk of not being able to build reserves for next winter (even with a bad hurricane season). As such, any risk premium is gone. The bottom price is what needs to be done to cause drillers to stop (which would allow for a self correction).
IPII...just moved back above $9. I was a strong buyer in the around $8.20-$8.30 last week and monday. Perhaps tax lose selling has finally ended. Needs more volume for a confirmation IMO.
2morrowsGains...FTK...Hate to be a wet blanket, but the net income in the pr is based on the acquisitions interest being deducted from EBITDA. FTK (with $30M borrowed to purchase the company) will have a much higher deduction. Don't forget their full tax rate.
I'm not negative. I'd say it's a great acquisition to integrate into their company and allows them another outlet to sell through. This will increase EPS rather than the acquisition itself.
All IMO.
GMXR and NG prices. Looking way overextended at $45 with natural gas prices back down to $7.80. Especially with the prediction (from Marketwatch) of an actual addition to NG reserves this week and warm mid-December on the way. Might be a good short.
ETF's for bear market (2X short)....I bring these up for those that may want to hedge their holdings. QID trades at 2x the opposite of the QQQQ's. Enclosed is a 3mo chart that shows it is pretty good at it. (Of course since the Nasdaq has done so well the last 3 months, QID is down twice that!)
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart3:symbol=qid;range=3m;compare=qqqq;indicator=volume;charttype=l...
Other ETF's run by the same firm include SDS, MZZ, DXD These are for mid-caps, dow,...
I brought them up for those that might not be aware of their existence.
Dave
Berliet...ALY...did you see all the form 4 sales filed in the last couple days?
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/default.aspx?cik=3982
Dave