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SEAC...talked to CEO, CFO, Chairman of the Board in a Zoom conference with other shareholders this afternoon.
----They know they made a big mess in their messaging. The CEO apologized several times. They know they set shareholders up with the discussion at Needham conference and that the pr's in March implied more than they wanting them too. He also admitted in the earnings release that they didn't highlight the fact that their last 2 quarters have had 77% and 73% margins. Instead they talked about whole year margins of 60%. They didn't talk about how they got their expenses down to the lowest in a year and expect to hold them there. He said they completely missed the mark and they know it.
----Here's a big one......they didn't mention the fact that executives are so bullish on hitting $85M for the year that they are taking option compensation for 3/4s of the salaries in Q1 that pay out only if they hit that target number for the year. They actually initiated this in mid-March. I missed the price point they are doing it at. I thought it was $3.50, but it could have been $2.50. I'm not sure why there hasn't been anything out on it, but it should be in the 10Q coming.
----Their Framework system is now essentially locking out any competition going forward for their customers. I specifically asked about this as it's not been described well. In the past customers mix and matched solutions to make a whole package. Now they are providing the framework as an all encompassing package in one as a licensing fee and deal for 5 years, but the near future plan is to roll out this App-like Store that adds in modules for additional products (from them or other developers) and additional revenue for them.
----the next package on top of that is this new advertising product they started to discuss in the cc call. They didn't want to go into it too much, but they are very bullish about it. It's connected to another company it sounded like and they left it at just saying there will be a pr on it in the future that describes it all more. They see a real demand for it esp with advertising being an issue now for media companies.
---The 4 deals that were not signed in January are still being discussed. Part of the problem was that the customers are wanting all future modules for free as part of the Framework system. They said they won't do that. However, the discussions are such that they are certain they will win them. He was very confident he said from the level of discussions they are having and at what level with the organizations.
---In 90 days they will give a Zoom conference presentation for analysts and investors. They will update everything that has gone on with the company and the new products, Covid-19, and their guidance for their FY 2021.
---The pr's in March are part of their new IR campaign. They want shareholders to be certain of what is coming and happening so they will do everything they can to highlight deals and changes going forward. Expect more of them going forward on deals and products.
---Q1 is challenging they say. Covid-19 has made customers slower to respond then normal. They said that things are definitely progressing with sales and they are being aggressive in approaching companies. The real advantage they see is they are offering customers a product that has a proven record already of lowering opex expenses. The longer things go with the virus the more they expect their product to have appeal.
----Their long term goal is to go after as many customers as possible in the next few years and lock them into the Framework system. Each deal is for 5 years and after that they figure the customer will be so entrenched in their software + new modules that it'll be hard to extract them as a software supplier.
****I suggest anyone who wants to know more to reach out to their IR guy and schedule a meeting themselves. The executives were going from us to another meeting right after.
SEAC..one last post. Just listen to Q4 Q&A slowly. Back it up if you don't hear it clearly as the CEO Yossi is hard to understand at times. They have the right product for this OTT content/streaming environment in calendar 2020 to save customers money. They know it too. I know they disappointed in Q4 and it's hard to trust them, but just listen to the Q&A. Skip the first part of it as it was them just reading carefully prepared remarks.
https://investors.seachange.com/websites/seachange/English/3020/archived-events.html
I will let it be now for quite awhile.
KiK......the Q&A of the cc call is worth listening to. There are positives there for sure. They missed on guidance because of 4 deals they didn't get signed. Margins were 73% in Q4 and expenses the lowest all year. It's tough. I think long term it's good esp with the current price (esp after hours). Just need more patience I figure. Oh well.
BmrBoy...SEAC....73% margins and non-gaap expenses of $9.2M were perfect for the quarter. The 4 international deals pushed out of Q4 are what hurt.
I think long term things are fine, it's just disappointing right now.
KiK...SEAC. I think they come in higher than analyst #s actually. I know the company was talking to shareholders back in January about hiring a new IR firm and announcing deals "after the quiet period ends". I think that got moved up into March as the stock price dropped. I've found that companies that are doing well like to talk, those that aren't keep quiet. During the Needham conference in mid-January they were standing by their Q4 guidance and 20% growth for next year. I know that the world is different since then, but I also know they have hired 4 new people in March alone from Linkedin resume's showing March starting dates. So they aren't making cuts or holding back.
Off the top of my head......Sales Director in NY, Sales consultant in Mexico, IT Recruiter in Poland. Can't remember the 4th. They were also running a new ad last week for a programmer in Poland.
Another hint......They also have discussed in cc calls where their old way of doing maintenance on legacy contracts is through "professional services" and that should end in Q4. Going forward they will have Customer Engineers be more embedded directly with their large customers to aid them. I mention this because look at his guy's Linkedin resume. He used to work for Cox in January and now he works for SEAC and he's in Atlanta and he's a Customer Solutions Engineer. Hmmmmm?!!
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ponthus-pyronneau-965300127/
Maybe it's all just hopeful, but we'll see in a couple of hours.
They will have like a $5M loss on selling their headquarters in Q4 so that may hit as a one-time charge.
SEAC --another contract pr
"Their technology not only facilitates great online video service, but also reduces our investment in infrastructure and content."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seachange-selected-leading-midwest-cable-120500121.html
Value....SEAC.... I don't worry too much about technicals here. 3.6M shares traded the day after they released Q3 earnings in December. That's for 14c/share net income non-gaap. I expect them to do 10M+ shares traded next Tuesday at least after Q4 is so much better + guidance where they can succeed in this environment. In that SumZero article, the one I mentioned in my other post to bbotcs, the author put the following in:
"SEAC repeated this point in recent PRs here, here, and here. In a recent call with SEAC IR, I asked for color around these PRs, as SEAC has historically not PR’d new deals, nor do they typically release any PRs in between earnings at all. SEAC IR advised that Yossi wanted to get across the point that there’s some strong opportunity set in the current stay-at-home environment and the competitiveness of their product."
10M+ shares trading in this stock, imo, will clean up the sellers and could give it a shot at a 52 week high. After that, who knows what momentum does.
bbotcs.... SEAC...There is a SumZero report out too that just came out on Tuesday. If you aren't familiar with them, they are a group for analysts and fund managers only. They have a prediction of 92c/share for this next fiscal year. I will send you a copy of the report privately that I was able to get myself. If anyone else wants a private copy send me a message.
Here is what SumZero is......https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SumZero
SEAC....U.S. 85% increase in streaming
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/490423-nielsen-records-85-percent-increase-in-americans-streaming-video
bbotcs....medical workers are becoming sleep deprived and physically exhausted and emotionally/mentally very tired. If you were to come down with the regular flu, would you want the first 2-3 days before you realized the symptoms to be days when you are working long hours and worn out? That's like a recipe to get really sick already. You hit them with the C-virus when they are already becoming wet noodles from exhaustion and it kicks them hard.
SuperDrive......I think this is about when Jack Nicholson start's to shout to the America......"you can't handle the truth!". Everyone is pretty much learning now what a pandemic is. It's not a two week and it's over thing.
I think the next fallacy that will fall is that the economy will BOOM quickly. People will be hesitant for the occurrence of a wave 2 forming next winter. They will save their money to protect themselves and their families.
FYI for what it's worth.........On Glassdoor someone just left a review dated March 26th that says the are an "ex tech". They said they worked there for 3 years and are now out. I don't doubt that layoffs are happening
I worked at Polar Power full-time for more than 3 years
Pros
Good fellow Technicians that worked well together
Cons
Low Pay, and need to modernize everything about the company
Doesn't look good
I think the 8K filed pretty much made it clear that they will be needing to raise cash to stay afloat---if they even can. It'd have to be at sub $1 and then that will cause a reverse split in time (with I'm sure executive options repriced as is typical). They may get loans, but that doesn't do them much good if there aren't orders. There is minimal business for Q1 and that's after a bad Q4 and Q2 will be zero to start for April for sure and into May. As such, their cash levels will be dangerously low. The next problem, if and when a rebound in the economy happens (probably longer than anyone expects) is that their auditor will label them a going concern which will limit companies wanting to do large orders with them. Purchasing managers won't get fired for buying from Generac, but they may get questioned hard for recommending POLA if their finances are shaky.
Arthur kept saying they wouldn't build up manufacturing without the demand, yet he did just that and now is sitting on too much inventory, no plant running, and not enough cash to wait it out.
Sorry.
Even $1 for your shares is better than nothing if you can get out. I'd rather wager/gamble/risk that on some crazy move in a virus stock (or like the REIT that got beat down and rebounded 500% the next day) then hope POLA comes back.
SEAC....I predict a virus momentum play forming! The company didn't do a Friday pr for nothing. They've got good news coming and this is just the next step in telling the story. A company with strong earnings that thrives in a shutdown. Wahoooo!
Hweb...SEAC....this Friday pr sets them up for another contract pr next week. Why do this on a Friday if there isn't going to be follow up with contract + rocking earnings!!
Is commercial real estate the next domino to fall?
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/489588-the-cheesecake-factory-says-it-will-not-be-able-to-pay-rent-for
You figure all these small Mom&Pop shops in the strip malls and next to the grocery stores of the country are doomed. How do you open up a new one to replace them when the virus is going to be cyclical and come in waves until a vaccine is done. If businesses (big and small) don't pay their rent than how do landlords pay the bank their mortgage? Then comes the bank problems through lending to these commercial property owners.
One domino falls onto the next onto the next if things get too ugly for too long.
A few years ago----the spring after they IPO'd---they had that really bad Q1 report when it became obvious Verizon orders were drying up. They put out an earnings report notice on Thursday and did the earnings and cc call on a Friday afternoon. I could see them doing that again.
I would wager they really don't want anyone looking at them too closely then. Arthur probably doesn't want to take any questions either. Companies who do well like to broadcast stuff. Companies that haven't try and hide.
Gilead23....Amazon is not allowing manufacturers and businesses to send "non-essential" items to their warehouses now for Amazon to pack up and deliver for them. It's how they can stay open in non-essential state shutdowns. All their warehouses are being used to just store stuff that people in shutdowns really need, not just desire. As such, when you buy some items like power strips (vs food or toilet paper), it has to be sent from the manufacturers location and not the local Amazon warehouse. It's why there are delays and often you can't get it Prime anymore either.
SEAC + 9% today. It's diverging from the overall market nicely these last few days. I still think this puppy runs after earnings. A company that wins in a shutdown will grab attention of momentum players.
Nelson...AYSI...I read the pr. Not sure on the valuation, but I like where the CEO says they accumulated cash for times like this. Cash may be king, but in a downturn is when you buy assets cheap and grow market share for the future. They obviously think they can survive. As such, they must be looking to put themselves into a position to thrive later. It's risky if they are wrong, but bold if they pull it off.
mandjb....do you expect the 25 year olds who are unhappy are over throwing the government? Do you expect them to actually learn how to vote? What people forget is that the older Americans are the ones who have the money!
The country as a whole may not even have 1% death rate from this. However, NYC, the biggest city in the US is going to get pounded on when the hospitals are over run. There will be pictures of body bags coming out of the hospitals. Probably the same in Seattle and Calif. Right now anyone who is over 60 in Italy who goes to a hospital does not get a respirator let alone a ventilator---pretty much guaranteeing you die. It goes to the younger people. WA state has already released a plan on who gets care and who doesn't later. Every media station in the country will be showing these deaths in detail. It's going to be very very very hard for the government to say that none of this matters and that we're just giving up and moving on.
What you want, what you think, does not matter. It only matters what the government is doing and what they will continue to do. We are all just leaves blowing in the storm. You either learn to ride it and try and find success in the process or fight it till it tears you apart.
Mermelsteing......so you assume. What if you are wrong? What if the governments of the world move in one direction together (like they are) no matter what? Perhaps you have seen indications that this is changing, but I haven't. I watch Trump in his broadcasts. He keeps saying that saving lives is the most important thing there is. He started that about a week ago and hasn't stopped since. Do you expect him to reverse that later and say that the economy is more important and that letting Americans die is the best approach now? He obviously has seen the economic projections of what could come from the course they have laid out, yet he talks about lives as #1 and the economy coming back later is all. I'm figuring they plan on throwing $2T at America and hope they can put a band-aid on the economy while also trying to lesson the number of deaths.
I'm not saying what is or isn't the best method going forward in dealing with this virus. It's a choice of ugly vs uglier. My opinion is that too many people on this board are only looking at what is cheap and not taking into account that, if they are wrong in their assumption that the 2nd half of 2020 is a rebound or that the virus won't be part of the community 12 months from now (which in itself forces social distancing), then they may not last much longer financially than the microcap they are invested in. There are a lot of small companies people are invested in that can not go months with no sales. These small public companies are in just as much danger as the Mom&Pop at the strip mall. People need to own companies that thrive or survive for sure, not just be hopeful the ones they own rebound because they are cheap.
stocks/companies....thrive, survive, or go under. If the sh*t hits the fan, as it appears it will, then everyone better have their money in companies that have potential to win with a product and business operation in a shutdown world or enough cash to last till a vaccine or treatment comes. Cheap federal loans are nice, but they may not last long enough for some companies or just saddle them with debt which weakens them later.
Imo, a lot of microcap companies may not be here a year from now.
IL just joined NY and CA in shutting down to only essential businesses. CT, NJ this weekend. OR is rumored to be coming. WA will def join in as it's bad here. Agree with it or not, it's happening. By the time this is done it's all 50 states. No guarantees this is just 30 days. What changes then other than the infection and death rate is higher than now? This shutdown is much longer.
If your investment involves employees having to go to work, then good luck. You need software companies right now that can program from home and grow the business no matter what. Or ones with enough cash that they can last with no sales.
The recipe for the next Great Depression...........let's see......create a virus that is hard to stop and let it spread around the world uncontrolled, let it kill enough people (esp after the hospitals are full so the sick have to go into tents with no oxygen or ventilators) that governments are afraid to let it go unchecked, have governments around the world try and stop the deaths by shutting down all human movement (futile in the end), in the process they destroy the economy and jobs for tens of millions of people per country, businesses and corporations go under, poorer countries have no ability at all to fight it, government throws trillions of dollars at it trying to stop the chaos and weaken themselves horrible for the aftermath.
Is this sci-fi? This is real life now. Maybe next month a miracle happens and it all goes away. However, if you had to create the recipe for a devastating recession and/or depression, isn't this it?
The world doesn't end though. The stock market will go on. Money can and will be made. As an investor you need capital though to do it. You have to own companies with no debt, that can run their businesses online while their employees program from home, that can actually grow in shutdowns with a product that is in demand. I say this because if I may be right and you are wrong then glory days of an economic boom aren't coming in 3 months.
Does anyone here actually believe what Trump or Mnuchin is saying?
Imo, this virus is now part of the community. It may come/go in waves, it may mutate, it may become seasonal, but it is NOT going away just because you want it to. This virus is the honey badger.......it don't care! AND governments are doing anything they have to to stop it. That is a fact, whether you agree with it or not.
SEAC......the company already gave Q4 guidance that they will do $70-80M for the year. They talked at the Needham conference on January 15th using the midpoint numbers of $75M. That's $27M for the quarter. Analysts have them at $23M. Either one produces great net income. They are in an environment that should grow. Streaming is only going one way if people can't go to theaters or entertainment.
Does anyone here think a $2.70 stock doing 18-25c/share in Q4 earnings with a solid guidance will run? One that grows in an environment of shutdowns? One that grows in the environment later where movie theaters are always suspect? Maybe this isn't an APT or Blue Apron (APRN) but I wager it makes a nice 52 week high for sure and then who knows what momentum does.
bbotcs.... you don't understand. Those who are young are going to the hospital at the same rate as the older people......18% need oxygen up to a ventilator. Read up on it. Seriously, I'm sure even your British tabloid has an article on it. The young recover and live more, but don't think it's not hitting them!
What happens when the hospitals are full? Look at Italy. People are dying there because there is NO ROOM in the hospitals. The young will get the medical supplies and the old will be allowed to try and recover on their own. That's how the death rates go from a small % to a large.
It does not matter what you think. It only matters what is. That being that governments are trying to save lives vs the economy.
A LOT of the investments people are posting on now don't survive a 30-90 non-essential shutdown followed by a recession. The idea there is a boom coming after is potentially just human wishful thinking. If you have no job and no money at the end, who is going to buy?
You better own companies that can survive worst case scenario no matter what. Even better, ones that can grow and put themselves in a strong position for the future.
SEAC...Thrive vs survive. How many small companies don't survive a 30-90 day "non-essential" business shutdown? If their employees can't telecommute and grow the business in doing it, then how do they last? It's coming to whatever state they are in eventually. You can't deny it anymore. Other states are just weeks behind NY, CA, etc. OR is doing it this weekend possibly. WA will soon be too.
Who's to say that what comes at the end is some great economic boom? Where is the cash coming from to do this when 20-25% of people got wiped out from lack of work?
I still like SEAC. I'm not afraid to toot it either. They can thrive vs just survive. They can telecommute and grow the business while doing it. Their product will have demand. Even if subscription Video on Demand develops issues from monthly costs in a very long recession, the companies will just switch to Advertising VOD. You could ask who's going to advertise in a deep recession? Doesn't matter to SEAC. They will set up the system for the entertainment companies, that's what matters.
People need to stop looking for bargains and start thinking that this could be a brutal recession and plan to find things that grow no matter what. A lot of companies won't last with no sales in a non-essential shutdown.
Hweb..SEAC...mid-point guidance would be $27M. That's around 25c/share. If they toss in that their future looks stable at minimum or solid with the need to get streaming to homes asap for entertainment companies to survive, then I think it could have a run.
25c/share for Q4 + guidance makes the stock go to $5 in any environment. In this one a run to $5 may make it go to double digits if it's a stay at home play on the virus.
Here's to hope!
Hweb....SEAC...up 11% (for now anyways). Maybe we can get lucky here. They actually make money!
12c/share non-gaap in Q3 (this is without one-time $2.3M restructuring charge).
Analyst has them doing 18c/share in Q4. I think it comes in better. If their business is thriving in this environment vs serving, then the market will kick the stock to a new 52 week high. Once you have that momentum may take it anywhere.
I hate to say it, but I agree with you. Their dwindling cash may not allow them to survive until the economy picks up again.
SEAC...Hweb...you got that! I hate to say it, but they may be in the right place at the right time for the shutdown that is coming in the world.
SEAC....China just tried to open up their first movie theater since Jan 26th and it didn't go well.
https://www.indiewire.com/2020/03/china-opens-theater-coronavirus-moviegoers-1202218236/
Movie production studios will see this and start to plan on how to survive in Europe and the US. Imo, it'll be streaming and subscription Video on demand and Advertising VOD will be for new movies soon, not just old ones. If so, SEAC will have a lot of new customers throwing $ at the situation to get control of the customer/data/process and doing their own streaming sites vs just putting it on Amazon or Apple.
When it's over the world may never go back to the old method completely. I like movie theaters, but that doesn't mean they survive this if this carries through to next winter and beyond.
Swampboots.....everyone thinks that this is going away and life will be normal again in 3 months. We may hit peak cases, but this virus is too damn tough to get to zero across the whole world. It will last through the summer in places for sure. It'll be ready to spread again next winter. Social distancing at some level is staying with us till there is a vaccine. Even China, which has been the most successful at stopping the virus, can't stop restrictions fully. They can't open up their borders till there is a virus. And when is that coming?? The reality is this is the new reality at some level or other.
Imo, you need to find companies that win in a long term shutdown of societies around the world. Because what is the endpoint to open up society freely again?? Imo, its a vaccine or 70% of the world gets the virus making it moot. All other scenarios are just to slow it down but you can't stop it.
Remember something else-----The WHO and the CDC are not here to protect the economy, they are here to limit the number who die from this.
SEAC....Hweb....I think in time investor are going to start to realize that this virus is not going away like some magic wish. This will be here on and off till a vaccine is formed. As such, the shift will go from investing in companies that can "survive" till there is a rebound (which may be a long time) to those that can thrive in a social distancing situation. Imo, SEAC thrives in it. 2020 is considered the year of streaming. Look at all the subscription video-on-demand services that have already come on line in the last 6 months and that are expected to come. SEAC is already benefiting here. I will wager that in 2020 that advertising video on demand emerges hard and fast and will be willing to watch ads to get it. People will be stuck home and will want free. SEAC wins even here more as their Framework System is perfect for dynamic advertising on demand (custom ads for each customer).
Survive or thrive----I think in time investors are going to switch to the latter more and more.
This virus will change society by the time it's over with.
A simple but important question on the virus and the economy.......
What is the endpoint for removing social distancing restrictions? What level do new cases have to be before they drop everything? Is it zero? What if it doesn't get there this summer and is still trickling slowly all over so there is the concern of it all flailing back up again next fall?
What is the endpoint? No one anywhere is saying. To get the US economy going again consumers need to be able to move freely again. What is the determining factor in allowing this?
Hweb....SEAC...new ir firm too. Matt Grover of https://www.gatewayir.com is their new outside IR firm. From bottom of press release:
Matt Glover
Gateway Investor Relations
949-574-3860
SEAC@gatewayir.com
SEAC---pr out on how they benefit from shutdowns
SeaChange International's Cloud-Based Video Platform Enables Content Providers to Quickly Launch Video Services Amid Uncertain Times
ACCESSWIRE ACCESSWIRE•March 16, 2020
WALTHAM, MA / ACCESSWIRE / March 16, 2020 / SeaChange International, Inc. (SEAC), a leading provider of cloud and on-premise video delivery platforms worldwide, enables content providers to launch direct-to-consumer video services in a matter of days. As more consumers isolate themselves in the wake of COVID-19, SeaChange's managed, cloud-based video delivery service makes it easier than ever for content providers to reach consumers at home. SeaChange's managed video delivery service is an end-to-end solution handles everything from content processing to the end-user interface and analytics.
Several content providers and broadcasters are looking to both enhance current service and launch new channels to address the growing demand for media consumption by students out of school, older and at-risk demographics isolated at home and the general populace, who suddenly find themselves homebound. These new services include advertisements, subscription and hybrid offerings. SeaChange's cloud-based scalable infrastructure enables the flexibility to launch tailored channels that appeal to a broader audience within days.
"It's difficult to predict events as they unfold related to the COVID-19 outbreak and the video viewing market at large, but we are clearly starting to see a major shift in video home viewership," said Yossi Aloni, CEO of SeaChange. "However, content providers can ensure they are prepared with SeaChange's technology. The managed nature of our platform, coupled with automated scaling and burst content ingestion, prepares for launch so quickly that it can be done in a matter of days."