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Re: researcher59 post# 60300

Thursday, 12/07/2006 11:04:56 AM

Thursday, December 07, 2006 11:04:56 AM

Post# of 173812
R59..NG futures...Your $9 short may be the top for the winter! I saw a report where that commented that if this winter ends up like last winter, NG futures will close winter below $5. Instead of ending the winter up +400bcf, we could end up +600bcf.

Reason for price drop: Once it becomes obvious, there will be absolutely no risk of running out of NG this winter. There will be absolutely no risk of not being able to build reserves for next winter (even with a bad hurricane season). As such, any risk premium is gone. The bottom price is what needs to be done to cause drillers to stop (which would allow for a self correction).

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