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Kthomp, I am also crap at market timing in the main. It is not so much timing the market, but the fact there are other things to do with my cash right now. A lot of other things. I don't want to just sit in FnF for six months - especially since I m not sold on their commitment to RnR.
I should register over that at the board you mention, thanks.
BTW Is Goose Island 312 the wheat beer?
Joseph, thank you, that is my surmise...
"I am Joseph, hear me roar!"
One cup of Joe too many today, I fear... or just Gabby's dulcet tones?
So, does "non litigants" mean no one pursuing a suit? or does it mean no pref holders? I would guess the former -- so they may well have clients who hold pref...
My guess is that ACG has clients who hold a lot of pref, but are not litigants - just a guess
Kthomp, thank you for the link to the summary -- that is a very helpful update on ACG's thinking.
This is still a very fluid situation. And they agree with what I had assumed -- nothing done till Fall.
Question for me is how much appreciation, or deprecition, in pref in coming months?
I think we see another panic about the economy will do, and a general market rip down, in the next couple of months. So I will wait for that to think about buying into pref agin. No need to chase the pref here, since other stuff that does better for me and sooner...
I will keep monitoring though, so thank you for the link
ACG Analytics employed by pref plaintiffs - or so people say. Just so you know where they are coming from....
Hi, yeah, I like ENLC here. All the other MLP's have jumped from lows, but ENLC has not moved really at all. I expect ENLC to catch-up with others... PLUS s you say the revised divvy is 9 cents a Q, and so 9% a Q for ENLC at an SP of a $1...
So I am very encouraged about catch-up move or better here
Kudlow? It is a farce that this guy is even in the WH...
This guy is a charmer, thank you for your continued input and comments -- very helpful and thought provoking as usual, best, potty
No idea what you mean, lol
lol, what is an FNMA short to do? Maybe you can get small business support from Treasury? (You are not a servicer after all. only group banned..)
Master Limited Partnership, especially pipelines, have had a huge fire sale on their prefs...
My general point is that I don't see divvies here any time soon -- they my take 2-3 years of retained earnings before the raise with no divvies
So, no, I am deeply unimpressed by the option of holding the FnF prefereds for their yield, you can get far higher yields with far less risk in many, many areas right now
oh the lack of irony,...
lol, oddly, you have done 0 diligence, and are 100% incorrect, on myself - but you don't nauseate me.. happy day to you sunshine :)
Crying doesn't help -- no one cares any more... that ship has sailed and we missed the boat
The narrative about the next moves is where the action is at -- and Calabria and Mnuchin have been very clever in forcing MBA to scream for a bailout. Means MBA clients and FnF should be treated in same ways now, right?
Very clever imho
Yank, but if they pay no common divvy, probably no pref divvy at least till capital raise. That could be some years
MLP prefs still selling at 40 cents on dollar AND pay huge yield - a sniff of a yield in FnF? No bueno, senior
ACG are reportedly employed by those holding pref - so bear that in mind as you listen to their claims
A pinch of salt and all that
Desperate times for pref, desperate measures to support the price of the pref owned by their clients... all good tho
Skeptic, cos the whole world - outside the GSE nuts - all buy the narrative that GSE caused crash, NWS was paying back government, wrong to benefit hedge-fund parasites etc etc. So that question never occurs to the wider world -- the question "Why not start the GSE's afresh with this new bailout?" WILL be asked... I don;t want to risk the answer... and Sweeney and Lamberth won't emerge from their crypts in daylight of 2020, but only in night of 2021 by which time SP will have crashed again...
Skeptic, I agree about the chance for a draw from Treasury -- and hence I agree that would prompt a shit-storm of calls for new amendment zero-ing out common and pref in some weasel way...
I am waiting till summer, or an utter crash to pref prices ($3-4 on FNMAS etc), before I take another look... so many better things. SKT went through another squeeze today to touch $8, what happens with 49% short interest... so many others like that right now
Just taking other opportunities and building cash for the next leg down in the market
True, but why he has then dived in way too early and with leverage? Going through a bear market rally right now imho in Mreits, GSE's etc
When we get over euphoria about CV peaking, THEN we look at cold reality of job losses, forbearances and worse
And nothing happening on FnF till summer or probably November - no bueno, amigo. I wait till summer
Well said...
Fuse, I am afraid I sold my SKT at $7.10. I will rebuy when we have a panic about economy again...
So I am happy to be here - also on the pref board here
Boy in the back with hand up - your answer is?
I don't understand it either. There are a lot of bad folks in the world, you don't need to attract their attention...
There is nothing certain -- Trump could have a heart attack, or die from CV-19, then RnR is dead with President Pence... any number of things can happen in this kind of market right now...
Glenn, you cannot know the bottom is in - not you or anyone else. Sorry.
This market can go either way right now, it could drop a very great deal or melt-up. I have no idea which is coming... neither do you.
Amelia, lol, I concur, but a nutjob with a friend in FL, named Bruce, who runs a fund?
Jesus?
Bradford now posting account balance...
https://twitter.com/DoNotLose/status/1248013022573948928/photo/1
I will get my FNMA news elsewhere from now on
Yeah, I will too -- he is a good guy, just not making good decisions... or gassing us all again
He moved the table ... now the table is about to drop on him from ten stories...
You can be right and play the thesis with little downside, let alone catastrophic downside -- say everything is delayed 6 months? Toast...
Stern, yeah, I do not understand it -- can make plenty without catastrophic downside...
Pref polar express was going to hell for a couple of weeks there -- what happens when we find the economy in desperate straits in couple of months? You think the talk then will be "Oh yeah, let's RnR FnF" or will it be never again, we need radical reform etc?
I think we get another dip, and a big one, on the market and the pref in the next month or so, just IMHO
PS I like we have a whole Board to ourselves with an average IQ above the single digits (joke)
Bradford playing with fire...
I am really sad to see what Bradford is doing, someone needs to tell him to lighten up the leverage:
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) April 8, 2020
Donot, I used to own that one of the $50's, it is on QM here:
https://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm?tickersymbol=FMCCM&sopt=symbol
Very low 4.6% yield
lol, then worry about $25 for $7 pref?
The thought of having an $8.50 pref called for $25 cash money - yeah, how would I sleep with that hanging over me... lol
Tanger short squeeze ;)