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Terry:
Many thanks for posting about this stock. Bought some at $9.90 per share and more yesterday at $12.40. Already a good investment, and its hard to see what could derail this train for the next 90 days.
Steve
"Uranium to Head North of $500/Pound?"
Article by James Finch:
http://www.investment-investment.us/story-551.php
Steve
10bagger re SDRL:
Is this PR old news? Is it an open market purchase? The price seems at or very close to market.
"Inside Declaration SeaDrill
Hemen Holding, a company indirectly controlled by John Fredriksen, has on 30 December 2005 purchased 432,900 shares, at an average price of NOK 53,7075 per share, in SeaDrill Ltd.
Following the purchase of the above mentioned shares, Hemen Holding controls a total of 89,640,200 shares in SeaDrill Ltd.
Including shares held through Geveran Trading, John Fredriksen is the beneficial owner of 99,035,616 shares in SeaDrill following the purchase. John Fredriksen is Chairman of the Board of SeaDrill Ltd.
Limasol January 2, 2006"
Thanks much.
Steve
doctorofstock re Peak Oil, etc.:
I think the place to be is uranium. To the best of my knowledge, the only pure uranium plays that can be mentioned on this board (i.e., have earnings) are CCJ and DEN.TO (DNMIF), although that will probably not be true for long. Both are very expensive by value investing criteria, and both have high market caps relative to most stocks discussed on this board; but I own quite a bit of CCJ and a small amount of DEN.TO and think they are virtually certain to go higher from here.
There is an excellent Uranium Exploration board on iHub where the smaller explorers/producers are discussed.
Steve
Arturo_Bechstone re URNZ:
What is "p&d"? Sorry to be dense.
Thanks much.
Steve
URNZ:
Up 13%+ on substantial volume. Looks like some kind of news is imminent.
Steve
OT re WSJ Article on Natural Gas:
"U.S. buyers are outbid in the natural-gas crunch.
Imports remain low as Asia and Europe compete for supply.
By RUSSELL GOLD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 16, 2005
Even with natural-gas prices surging to new heights and heating bills soaring across the U.S., much of the nation's import capacity remains idle.
The U.S. has four onshore terminals for receiving and processing imported gas, and they are processing only about half the volume they can handle. The reason: U.S. buyers are being aggressively outbid by Europeans and Asians for the limited number of cargoes available.
The supply crunch means natural-gas prices will stay high -- and sensitive to weather changes -- for years, even as the U.S. builds more terminals to handle overseas gas.
'There will be continued competition for supply, certainly through the end of the decade,' says Martin Houston, president of North American operations for BG Group PLC, the largest importer of liquefied natural gas into the U.S.
In the U.S., natural-gas prices are up fivefold since the beginning of the decade, and near records in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. On Tuesday, prices hit an inflation-adjusted record of $15.38 per million British thermal units. Thursday, they dropped quickly after models predicted warmer-than-average weather after Christmas, despite news that a surprisingly large volume of gas had been drawn out of underground storage owing to the recent U.S. cold snap. Natural gas closed down 6.1% at $13.781 per million BTUs on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
About 57% of the U.S.'s 110 million households use natural gas for heat, according to the Census Bureau. The U.S. Energy Department forecasts that the average U.S. household that heats primarily with natural gas will spend 38% more this year. Natural gas also is used for such purposes as generating electricity and producing plastics and fertilizer. Demand has grown amid a strengthening economy and interest in cleaner-burning fuel.
High prices are one reason big producers are looking to boost North American gas production. This week, ConocoPhillips said it would pay $35.6 billion to acquire Burlington Resources Inc.. Eighty percent of Burlington's assets are North American gas.
But imports also are key. While the majority of natural gas consumed in the U.S. comes from North American wells, many aging fields can't produce more.
The import conundrum dates to the beginning of this decade, when prices spiked -- at a time when production was flat -- and government and industry officials began pushing to increase natural-gas supply.
In 2001, the industry began reopening mothballed liquefied natural-gas terminals and proposed building dozens of new ones. The administration of President George W. Bush backed the effort to help bring down prices, and the government streamlined the regulatory process. Companies campaigned to persuade communities to allow them to build terminals, often in the face of vigorous local opposition.
That won some approvals, but new terminals require years to build. Shipping natural gas is a tricky process. The gas is shipped in very cold liquefied form, which dramatically boosts volume, but must be reheated and returned to a gaseous form at terminals when received.
With U.S. production leveled off, the energy industry expected to compensate with imports from the Middle East and Africa, where excess supplies of the fuel are never brought to market. Instead, a pressing global shortage has developed, in part because of overseas competition. As the price of liquefied natural gas fell, a building boom began. While supply increased and the number of cargoes available for purchase on the spot market grew, so too did the number of new import terminals in other countries.
Global production capacity for natural gas, in liquefied form, is about 20 billion cubic feet, or about 600 million cubic meters, a day, but there are enough terminals around the globe to eat up twice that volume, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
A global shortage has developed in recent months, amid supply glitches, cold weather in the U.K. and a drought in Spain, which has been turning to liquefied natural gas to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric power.
In an extreme example of the situation, a tanker carrying liquefied natural gas last month arrived from Nigeria and idled in the Gulf of Mexico for a week -- during which prices in Europe rose -- before sailing on to Spain to unload its cargo. Recently, the Spanish have been willing to pay $2 to $3 per million BTUs above Gulf Coast spot prices, according to PIRA Energy Group, a New York consultant. South Koreans, meanwhile, are paying a premium of about $2 and the British a premium of $2 to $6.
The gap underscores the differences between the oil and gas markets. Oil can be easily loaded onto a tanker and sold into a well-developed global market that has been fine-tuned over decades. Natural gas, by contrast, is difficult to transport except by pipeline, and liquefied-natural-gas shipments are still a relatively small portion of the overall market. That means the price can vary widely by region, depending on factors such as weather and the availability of alternative fuels.
The international spot-market trade in liquefied natural gas is relatively new. Until recently, consumers got gas through regional pipeline hubs, which created geographically isolated markets. Gas-short nations such as Japan and South Korea bought natural gas under iron-clad long-term contracts.
Geography puts the U.S. at a disadvantage. Most supplies of liquefied natural gas for Europe and the U.S. come from West Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Europe is closer, which makes delivery less expensive. The only supplier close to the U.S. is in Trinidad.
Moreover, the price European buyers are willing to pay is so high that a tanker from Trinidad arrived in the U.K. on Tuesday, according to Waterbourne LNG, a weekly publication of Houston energy consulting firm Commercial Services Co. The voyage marked one of the first times liquefied natural gas from the Caribbean had crossed the Atlantic in pursuit of higher prices.
The U.S. also faces the problem of being the newest entrant in the market and still a small purchaser."
Steve
TBILLS re VPHM:
The De Rosen purchase price is now the floor, I think. You put it perfectly: awesome.
Steve
Arctec:
But are you a ma'am? or, a madam?
"madam
n 1: . . . 2: a woman who runs a house of prostitution [syn: brothel keeper]"
Learned of this stock through Trosh post, and have decided to buy a little at the open. Should be an e-ticket ride, in one direction or another. Hoping this stock is as good to me in 2006 as VPHM has been in 2005. Other recent purchases in the oil services sector with interesting upside potential (and concomitant risk): BGH.TO (BGHSF) and SDRL, Oslo (SDRLF).
Greatly appreciate all posts from you, Trosh, tackler, johnlw, earthfarm, oasdif, et al. on the Uranium Exploration and Unconventional Oil boards.
Steve
VPHM:
De Rosen has to be the CEO of the year. Purchase of 10k shares for $200k timed to allay any concerns caused by exercise of options by other insiders.
Steve
OT re Stella Awards:
The Stella Awards are named after 81 year old Stella Liebeck who spilled coffee on herself and successfully sued McDonald's. They are given each year to the most frivolous successful lawsuits in the United States.
THIS YEAR'S AWARDS GO TO:
5th Place (Tied)
Kathleen Robertson of Austin, Texas was awarded $780,000 by a jury of her peers after breaking her ankle tripping over a toddler who was running inside a furniture store. The owners of the store were understandably surprised at the verdict, considering the misbehaving toddler was Ms.Robertson's son.
5th Place (Tied)
19 year old Carl Truman of Los Angeles won $74,000 and medical expenses when his neighbor ran over his hand with a Honda Accord. Mr. Truman apparently did not notice there was someone at the wheel of the car when he was trying to steal the hubcaps.
5th Place (Tied)
Terrence Dickson of Bristol, Pennsylvania was leaving a house he had just finished robbing by way of the garage. He was not able to get the garage door to go up since the automatic door opener was malfunctioning. He could not re-enter the house because the door connecting the house and garage locked when he pulled it shut. The family was on vacation and Mr. Dickson found himself locked in the garage for 8 days. He subsisted on a case of Pepsi he found and a large bag of dry dog food. He sued claiming the situation caused him undue mental anguish. The Jury agreed to the tune of $500,000.
4th Place
Jerry Williams of Little Rock, Arkansas was awarded $14,500 and medical expenses after being bitten on the buttocks by his next door neighbor's Beagle dog. The Beagle was on a chain in its owner's fenced yard. The award was less than sought because the jury felt the dog might have been a little provoked at the time as Mr. Williams, who had climbed over the fence into the yard, was shooting it repeatedly with a pellet gun.
3rd Place
A Philadelphia restaurant was ordered to pay Amber Carson of Lancaster, Pennsylvania $113,500 after she slipped on a soft drink and broke her coccyx (tailbone). The beverage was on the floor because Ms. Carson had thrown it at her boyfriend 30 seconds earlier, during an argument.
2nd Place
Kara Walton of Claymont, Delaware sued the owner of a Night Club in a neighboring city when she fell from the bathroom window to the floor and knocked out two of her front teeth. This occurred whilst Ms. Walton was trying to sneak in the window of the Ladies Room to avoid paying the $3.50 cover charge. She was awarded $12,000 and dental expenses.
1st Place!!!!!
This year's runaway winner was Mr. Merv Grazinski of Oklahoma City,
Oklahoma. Mr. Grazinski purchased a brand new Winnebago Motor home. On his trip home from an OU football game, having driven onto the freeway, he set the cruise control at 70 mph and calmly left the driver's seat to go into the back and make himself a cup of coffee. Not surprisingly the RV left the freeway, crashed and overturned. Mr. Grazinski sued Winnebago for not advising him in the owner's manual that he could not actually do this. The jury awarded him $1,750,000 plus a new Winnebago Motor home. The company actually changed their manuals on the basis of this suit just in case there were any other complete morons buying their recreational vehicles.
Steve
Bobwins re SUF:
Have you ever looked into this company?
http://www.sulphco.com/
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8869673
I would be very interested in any thoughts you may have.
Thanks.
Steve
CCJ:
"Cameco to Redeem Debentures":
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051212/20051212006065.html?.v=1
Steve
OT re Reg. SHO:
They are required by law to cover. But I'm not sure the Reg. is much enforced.
Steve
OT re oil, precious metals:
"Oil Fails to Make $50 Despite Record Pressure":
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=15281
"Precious Metal Super Bull Minority Takes Charge":
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=15284
Steve
OT re Uranium spot price:
It is reported by a subscriber to Ux Weekly that when Ux Consulting publishes the spot price for uranium as of December 5 after the close today that the spot price will be $35.25. All things uranium are behaving today as if the report is true. I have been following the weekly spot price for uranium since June and there is not a single week in which it has gone down.
CCJ and DEN.TO (DNMIF.PK) have done quite well during the past month, as have a number of juniors that do not qualify for mention on this board.
Steve
DigiTech re Char:
I don't find the news particularly surprising or alarming. It was to be expected.
I am not selling at $5. The stock is worth twice that. I will wait and see what happens. I can deal with additional losses; but it would be really painful to sell now, only to watch the stock go up.
I'll be surprised if the stock gets beat up tomorrow, but then again I have been consistently wrong about this stock for the last 60 days. Glad they don't all go like this one has.
Steve
VPHM:
I have not yet worked my way through the entire prospectus, but in my view the most important thing to note is the following forward looking statement:
"We currently estimate that net product sales of Vancocin will be approximately $160 to $170 million in 2006."
The company even filed an 8-K today that highlights this projection for all to see.
This 2006 estimate should be compared with the company's most recent (11/7) estimate of net product sales for 2005, namely, $120 to $123 million. While the share count will increase by 10-13% or so, revenues are projected to grow by 35-40%. And a portion of the funds will probably used to pay off/down debt.
I think after the initial reaction is over, the "smart money" may very well turn out to be buyers at this level. The stock still seems incredibly cheap to me.
Steve
OT re "Waiting for the Sky to Fall":
Interesting article with specific investment ideas, "Waiting for the Sky to Fall?: Asia and Implications of $500 Gold and $8+ Silver":
http://kwrintl.com/library/2005/Waiting-for-the-Sky-to-Fall.htm
Steve
OT re Hamilton cartoons:
When I posted this last night, links went direct to cartoons. Don't know what happened. Sorry!
Steve
Bobwins re Happy Turkey Day:
New Yorker cartoonist William Hamilton has a famous cartoon about grace before Thanksgiving Dinner:
http://www.thenewyorkerstore.com/product_details.asp?mscssid=SD052PHNDXG38M4NHG242ED2XNSC5MNE&si....
He also has a good one about getting money:
http://www.thenewyorkerstore.com/product_details.asp?mscssid=SD052PHNDXG38M4NHG242ED2XNSC5MNE&si....
Hope all have a great holiday.
Steve
HOM:
News of $26.7 million private placement:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8604015
Steve
researcher59, DigiTech re CHAR:
Don't know where it will close, but nice to see the other side of $5 today.
Steve
OT re Gold:
"COT Gold Report -- 'Big Wednesday' Confirms Gold Bull":
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14785
Steve
OT re Natural Gas:
"Natural Gas Production Can't Keep Up":
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14791
Steve
OT re Uranium:
This week Uranium Participation Corporation (U.TO) announced another offering, the proceeds of which will be used primarily for U3O8 purchases:
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=newIssuesNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml...
Steve
rsadey re VPHM:
Congratulations on your excellent timing.
I have continued to hold all shares purchased in May, and have been astonished by recent selling. In an email about a week or so ago I predicted that if the news on HCV-796 was good, $28 a share would be "a distant memory." Turning out to be prophetic in unintended ways!
FWIW, I think that the company will do $1.25-$1.50 in earnings next year, that a forward PE of 20 is pretty reasonable for Vancocin alone, that generic competition for Vancocin is years away, that the HCV-796 news was good (i.e., that the drug will proceed to phase 2), and that the stock is a screaming buy at this level. But I read from those knowledgeable that the charts are bad from a technical standpoint. Near term that may be what matters most.
At the present time I have no plans to sell at anything like the current level.
Steve
VPHM:
Piper Jaffray comments on HCV-796, and reiteration of $28 price target:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=707...
Steve
stockmann re LMMG:
Just saw where the company has filed for an extension.
Steve
stockmann re LMMG:
Is the company due to report earnings today?
Thanks.
Steve
bbotcs re VSYS:
I'd be happy to see them penetrate any market in a major way! But you're right -- it is beginning to look like patience may actually be rewarded with this one. I don't have much money at stake, but I have it in the Pick Six, so I'm hoping for about 10 more big contracts by year end to prop up my lackluster performance.
rrufff, do you still own this stock?
Steve
VSYS:
A little more good news:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8502518
Steve
OT re Uranium spot price:
Late tomorrow Ux Consulting will publish the spot price for Uranium as of November 14. Subscribers to Ux Weekly (a very expensive publication!) receive the information the day before it is published, and word of the price inevitably gets passed along to non-subscribers. It is rumored that the 11/14 price will be $33.95 per pound. It continues to appear likely that $35 will be achieved by year end.
The price is up from about $21 at the start of the year, and in recent months has been going up about $1 per month. It is reported that a number of producers are stockpiling production not already committed, in anticipation of higher prices in 2006. Much of the production during the past year has been sold under multi-year contracts at prices dramatically below market (i.e., $7-$15). As those contracts have expired, and continue to expire, and new contracts negotiated closer to current market prices, the earnings of the major producers, Cameco (CCJ or CCO.TO) and Denison (DNMIF.PK and DEN.TO) can be expected to increase accordingly.
From the most recent quarterly report of CCJ:
"The fixed-price contracts have prices that were set at the time of contract signing. This means we have some contracts at fixed prices below the current spot market prices and they fall into the category of “insensitive” to market price, as noted below. Cameco continues to secure more favourable terms in market price related contracts, including firm floor prices in the mid $20 (US) range (escalated by inflation).
During the past period of low prices, we attempted to keep the term of contracts as short as possible (three to five years). In the current market environment we are committing to longer-term contracts (up to 10 years or more) where the pricing terms provide downside protection (floor prices) and retain upside potential.
The following table shows the approximate percentage of our targeted sales volume that will be impacted by increases in the spot price above $33.00 (US) per pound U3O8. The proportion of targeted sales that is price sensitive increases in 2006 and continues to grow in 2007 and 2008. While the percentage of sales targets that is price insensitive has increased relative to the previous quarter, it is important to note that the value of the portfolio has risen as we secure new contracts due to new higher fixed-price contracts and higher ceiling prices in a rising market.
% Sales Target
2005 2006 2007 2008
Price insensitive 1 96% 87% 71% 54%
Price sensitive 2 4% 13% 29% 46%
1 Fixed-price contracts and market-related contracts not sensitive to increases in the spot price above $33.00 (US) per pound.
2 Market-related contracts plus uncommitted volumes.
The percentages of price insensitive and price sensitive volume would not change significantly for spot price decreases down to the $20 (US) range.
By 2008, Cameco should be realizing most of the benefit of today’s improved uranium prices, assuming prices remain at current levels."
VPHM:
Company hosting conference call at 1:30 to discuss HCV-796 results and "answer questions regarding all aspects of the business."
Steve
hogfan2 re VPHM:
Me too. Can't believe it.
Steve
URNZ:
Joint ventures its Cochrane River project:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051110/20051110005109.html?.v=1
Steve
UxC and 11/7 spot price:
UxC has posted. Up $.25 to $33.50.
http://uxc.com/
Steve
VPHM:
No surprise, but JPM Securities and Piper Jaffray have both raised their price targets to $28.
The Piper analyst had a price target of $5 in May, and has been raising it every month or two. Given his track record, $28 by year end is looking pretty good, although in fairness he has been a consistent cheerleader for the stock, even if behind the curve, when there were no others in the analyst community.
If, as the company seems to anticipate, the news next month on HCV-796 is positive, $28 will be a distant memory.
Seems to me that earnings from Vancocin alone in 2006 will be $1.25 - $1.50, and that a forward PE of 25 or so is not inappropriate. Hard for me to see a lot of risk here at $24 per share.
This could turn out to be one of the great stocks/companies of the decade.
Steve
VSYS:
One of my laggards in Pick Six may get a boost from news of new orders. The $$ are not that impressive, but it does signify a growing acceptance of the technology.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8389168
Steve
OT re Canadian oil sands:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14311
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14338
Steve