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04/15/14 SPX
>> 04/12 ahimsak:
>> I also expect a possible bottom Monday to Wednesday,
>> followed by a rally back to 1850 but not more before
>> the selling starts again.
ahimsak
based on the latest intraday data, i came out a range 1806.82-1783.98 for the next review to see if 1760.85 is possible.
>> 04/10
>> (4) A tentative intermediate low projection based on latest data
>> for S&P is 1812.74-1789.90
>> will discuss the possibility for zone 2
>> zone 2 - (1788.24-1746.83)
Indices completed the second 60-61-month/5-year advances
Two 5 year bull run:
(1) October 2002--October 2007
(2) March 2009—April 2014
new high dates
04/04 DJI
04/04 SPX
03/06 NDX
03/04 RUT
03/07 NASDAQ
the lagging DJI tested the prior high (12/31, 16588.25) on 04/04.
IMHO, even though it did not close above it, the significance is that it marks a new high (16631.63) so that all major indices SPX, NDX, DJI, RUT now run in sync, a possible sign of completion a pivotal cycle ............
04/11/14 snapshot
>> 04/10
>>(4) A tentative intermediate low projection based on latest data
>> for S&P is 1812.74-1789.90
>> will discuss the possibility for zone 2
>> zone 2 - (1788.24-1746.83)
04/10/14 summary
>> 04/04
>> zone 1 - (1845.71-1816.12), gauge for zone 2 1785.29
>> zone 2 - (1788.24-1746.83)
>>
>> 04/07
>> IF all indices can hold their monthly supports:
>> (DJI 16200-16240, SPX 1826-1836) respectively
>> for the next 3 trading days (04/07-04/09)
>> it might still have chance for the DJI & SPX rally
>> to new highs 16,810 +/-, 1903 +/- in early-May
The testing on monthly supports was one day late.
imho, DJI is clear, for SPX, there is no perfect signal
for making a black & white judgment.
Here is a summary for bearish scenario:
(1) DJI retested the prior high (12/31) on 04/04 but failed to
close above it says the prior high is solid.
When it closes below March low 16046.99 that
suggests more drops to follow.
(2) NDX peaked on 03/06 @ 3738.32
(3) An intermediate & intervening low next week would
initiate a lower high in early-May,
after that, more serious drop could take place.
>> 03/19
>> The projected peak in May (05/12 +/-) is very important
>> for the long term consequence, the judgment will base on
>> if it is a lower high (<= 1903.59) or new high. (>=1944.65)
(4) A tentative intermediate low projection based on latest data
for S&P is 1812.74-1789.90
will discuss the possibility for zone 2
zone 2 - (1788.24-1746.83)
A vintage illustration of Wall Street, 1908
Library of Congress/Prints and Photographs Division
photo sources: (links to the same photo)
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2014/03/31/635318610396687612.jpg
http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2011/08/11/wallst-d9644441b1b4fe377c62082db895f96befab3836-s4-c85.jpg
http://www.japanjohn.com/uploads/8/7/1/3/8713606/6741974.jpg?610
Hog — This is the animal that bulls, bears and sheep shape-shift into "when they lose their senses," according to Alan Abelson, writing for in 2009.
Vulture — A seller of securitized viaticals, according to . "Sick people need money. Most folks have term (life insurance) policies that aren't worth anything to them while they live.
Full text & charts
http://www.npr.org/2011/08/12/139554818/beyond-bulls-and-bears-a-wall-street-bestiary
Building the world’s greatest market
You're either with us, or against us
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You%27re_either_with_us,_or_against_us
The enemy of my enemy is my friend
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_enemy_of_my_enemy_is_my_friend
( in order to match the post title, this is a simplified version.)
In spite of the aging photo turned yellowish fuzzy, it still looks stunning & spectacular
The First Fleet assembles for the King's review on 18 July 1914
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2014/04/06/635323757489228003.jpg
more information can be found in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Fleet
almost 100 years later:
Chart Speaks For Itself: http://blog.creaders.net/upfile/20120307/20120307120547_52253.png
NYT's carping comments
Putin's Czarist Folly
By ROBERT SERVICEAPRIL 6, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/07/opinion/putins-czarist-folly.html?_r=0
Russia needs to pump out high-technology goods, not just oil and gas. And the rival power it ought to keep in sight is not to the west but to the south.
Since the mid-1970s, China’s rulers have prioritized the diversification of their economy. This would be the minimal requirement to ensure Russia’s status as a Eurasian power. Instead, the Chinese are set to become a superpower while the Russians fall away.
Russia and China new best chums?
David A. Andelman 6:34 p.m. EDT April 2, 2014
As Obama and EU alienate Putin, he's looking for a friend in other strong places.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/04/02/russia-china-natural-gas-eu-sanctions-putin-column/7224661/
Some European leaders understand the danger of uniting Eurasia's largest resource-rich nation with the world's most populous nation or, at least, the permanent disruption it could cause in both military and economic terms.
In May, Putin is planning a state visit to Beijing. At the top of the agenda — a 30-year deal to redirect Russia's vast gas supplies to China. At least 38 billion cubic meters of gas a year would begin flowing to China by 2018. That's about what all of the European Union, other than Germany, buys from Russia.
A decision by Russia to disentangle itself from unreliable European economic partners would have far more wide-ranging consequences.
High-stakes Eurasian Chess Game: Russia’s New Geopolitical Energy Calculus
by F. William Engdahl
http://www.voltairenet.org/article164714.html
The SCO, founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the heads of state of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, has evolved into what might be called Halford Mackinder’s worst nightmare—a vehicle for welding close economic and political cooperation of the key Eurasian land powers independently of the United States.
The Grand Chessboard - American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives
Zbigniew Brzezinski. the United States National Security Advisor from 1977 to 1981 under the administration of President Jimmy Carter.
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/The_Grand_Chessboard
"America is now the only global superpower, and Eurasia is the globe's central arena. Hence, what happens to the distribution of power on the Eurasian continent will be of decisive importance to America's global primacy and to America's historical legacy."
"With warning signs on the horizon across Europe and Asia, any successful American policy must focus on Eurasia as a whole and be guided by a Geo-strategic design."
Transcontinental transportation
DUISBURG, GERMANY - MARCH 29:
http://www.guancha.cn/europe/2014_03_30_217973.shtml
http://www.guancha.cn/XiJinPingFangOu/?ZT
Chinese President Xi Jinxing,
Lord Mayor of the city of Duisburg Soren Link,
Vice Chancellor and Economy and Energy Minister Sigmar Gabriel,
Prime Minister of the German State of Northrhine-Westfalia Hannelore Kraft
CEO of Duisburger Hafen AG (Duisport) Erich Staake
attend the arrival of 'Yuxinou' container train at the Logport terminal on March 29, 2014 in Duisburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.
The train, which is up to 750 meters long, links the Duisburg shipping port directly with the Chinese city of Chongqing, located 10300 kilometers away. the train filled with IT products, took 16 days, routed through China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, arrived the terminal in Duisburg Germany.
Building the world’s greatest market
China’s Land Bridge to Turkey creates new Eurasian Geopolitical Potentials
By F. William Engdahl, 28 April 2012 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34366.html
Building the world’s greatest market
With the end of the Cold War in 1990 the vast under-developed land space of Eurasia became open again. This space contains some forty percent of total land in the world, much of it prime unspoiled agriculture land; it contains three-fourth of the entire world population, an asset of incalculable worth. It consists of some eighty eight of the world’s countries and three-fourths of known world energy resources as well as every mineral known needed for industrialization. North America as an economic potential, rich as she is, pales by comparison.
The Turkish-China railway discussion is but one part of a vast Chinese strategy to weave a network of inland rail connections across the Eurasian Continent. The aim is to literally create the world’s greatest new economic space and in turn a huge new market for not just China but all Eurasian countries, the Middle East and Western Europe. Direct rail service is faster and cheaper than either ships or trucks, and much cheaper than airplanes. For manufactured Chinese or other Eurasian products the rail land bridge links are creating vast new economic trading activity all along the rail line.
short term bearish window is waning out
SPX marked an intraday low 1837.49 on 04/08 and reversed.
Good chance index will close above the bear gauge 1859.67, the short term bearish window is waning out. The real fight and a multiple month peak is probably in the first two weeks of May.
>> 04/07 SPX, put all together
>> link
>>
>> Section 1 Initial pullback (as of 04/04)
>> bear gauge 1859.67 to enter intermediate term decline
>> The intermediate term low target zones:
>> zone 1 - (1845.71-1816.12)
>>
>> Section 2 Cycle outlook (as of 03/02, 04/05)
>> IF all indices can hold their monthly supports:
>> (DJI 16200-16240, SPX 1826-1836)
>> respectively for the next 3 trading days (04/07-04/09) it might
>> still have chance for the DJI & SPX rally to new highs
>> 16,810 +/-, 1903 +/- in early-May.
04/07 SPX, put all together
intraday low 1843.28, in progress.
entering Zone 1 (1845.71-1816.12) with some 'hesitation'
Section 1 Initial pullback (as of 04/04)
Note: This is the projection for initial pullback, not the Bottom call
bear gauge 1859.67 to enter intermediate term decline
The intermediate term low target zones:
zone 1 - (1845.71-1816.12)
gauge for zone 2 1785.29
zone 2 - (1788.24-1746.83)
large retracement: (1718.03-1649.95)
Section 2 Cycle outlook (as of 03/02, 04/05)
IF all indices can hold their monthly supports (DJI 16200-16240, SPX 1826-1836) respectively for the next 3 trading days (04/07-04/09) it might still have chance for the DJI & SPX rally to new highs 16,810 +/-, 1903 +/- in early-May.
chart: March 2, 2014, 8:05:07 PM
Section 3 intermediate term peak (as of 02/11)
The unrealized intermediate term high target is 1903.59. (1879.42-1903.59)
http://forexrainbow.com/images/85205427314277595081.jpg
Section 4 middle term peak (as of 02/08)
The middle term high target is 1944.65 (1931.41-1944.65).
http://forexrainbow.com/images/05784777282136429201.jpg
Section 5 Hunting the Trough
(as of 04/05)
If the history is a guide, the initial drop's depth may give a sense to see if there are follow-thru drops to the Bottom.
use 1897.28 as a tentative peak (peak requires confirmation)
1897.28 * 0.8521 = 1616.67 (will elaborate if transpires)
1897.28 * 0.8100 = 1536.80
1897.28 * 0.7901 = 1499.04
(as of 02/08)
1450-1620 as the gauge for “the End of Bull”
Claude Monet
http://www.intermonet.com/oeuvre/pontjapo.htm
They are bringing the canvases to me one after the other. A color that I had found and sketched on one of these canvases yesterday reappears in the air. I am quickly given this painting and strive to fix this vision as permanently as possible. But it usually vanishes as fast as it sprang up, making way for another color I had already painted days ago on another study instantly put in front of me... And that is the way it is all day long."
http://www.intermonet.com/oeuvre/nymphea1.htm
These landscapes of water and reflections have became my obsession. They are far beyond my old man powers and despite everything I want to succeed in conveying what I feel. I destroy some... I start over again... And I hope something will finally come from so many efforts."
zulu Re: FB
Firstly, imho, we are running into a turbulent period that sudden spikes may produce whipsaws before the arrival of the critical & pivotal, long term cycles in early May, By that time a multiple months long top is possible. IF, Yeah!, IF all indices can hold their monthly supports (DJI 16200-16240, SPX 1826-1836) respectively for the next 3 trading days (04/07-04/09) it might still have chance for the DJI & SPX rally to new highs 16,810 +/-, 1903 +/- in early-May.
Each technician has his/her own criteria, here is a good reference
for the Key reversal levels for week of April 7, 2014:
http://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/
Thus the picture that smears the possibility for FB to fill the gap before its earning announcement. No one knows for sure what is the score the earning could be.
For an outright speculation, I was looking for just a Gap fill, but you could fulfill your expectation because both the standard retracement & wave projection pinpoint to 52 or lower, see charts.
count for reference only, it evolves rapidly
Post 188
Take a short break, will be back soon.
another hot thread
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=153509
Re: a drop to 1550 later this summer or fall
>> ahimsak
>> a drop to 1550 later this summer or fall is a pretty sure thing IMHO
Stock Indices
for week 7th April 2014 http://www.wavetrack.com/
an excerpt:
in reality, these markets have already fulfilled their minimum upside obligations and so the risk remains to the downside. Unlike perma-bear Elliott Wave prognostications, we continue to project any downswing as beginning a counter-trend sequence within the continuing five wave impulse pattern in progress from the Oct.’11 lows. Downside targets for the S&P during the next few months measure towards 1618.00+/- resulting in a -14% decline.
1450 ~= 1451.39 = 0.707 out of 1897.28 & 1266.74 (use the latest data)
1450 ~= 1451.23 = 0.786 out of 1848.47 & 1343.35 (reported on 02/08)
1620 ~= 1620.21 = (1612.47 + 1627.95)/2
wave set (666.79->1370,1074.77), 0.764 @1612.47, 0.786 @1627.95
1560.33 day low on 06/24/2013
US-led bull market in 2014? Not so fast,says.Jim.O'Neill
US-led bull market in 2014? Not so fast, says Jim O'Neill
Jenny Cosgrave
Friday, 4 Apr 2014 | 2:46 AM ET
Economist and former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Jim O' Neill has cautioned investors expecting a global bull market this year, warning that if a bull run takes hold, it will not be led by the United States.
fluu text & viedo: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101554202
correlation test to probe S&P direction - continuation
>> Wednesday, 04/02/14 10:11:54 PM
>> link
>> The underling intrinsic economy strength can be reflected by
>> the lagging Industrial Production index and stock market
>> strength can be reflected by Industrial Production index.
>>
>> so, we collect the raw data for both the monthly Industrial
>> Production index and S&P500 index, and run a Correlation
>> test see what happen?
>> (1) It is only a directional guide, cursory view.
>> (2) S&P500 index presents some volatility that degrades the correlation test.
>> It also carries some other dependency that is beyond my scope .
>> (3) We may run ISM & Factory orders vs. SPX
The S&P 500 And U.S. Economic Index Continue Decoupling
Apr. 4, 2014 6:07 PM ET |
J.J. McGrath,
A bridging of the gap between the absolutely strong American equity market and the relatively weak national economy was not evidenced by the relationship of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and my proprietary U.S. Economic Index (USEI) last month: From February to March, both rose, but the SPY-USEI correlation coefficient fell.
It appears obvious to me that changes in the stock market eventually mirror changes in the economy, and vice versa. However, SPY rose on an adjusted basis to $187.01 in March from $161.27 in August, a gain of $25.74, or 15.47 percent, while the USEI fell over the same period to 53.18 from 57.70, a loss of 4.52 points, or 8.27 percent.
This break in the continuous feedback loop between the market and the economy actually began appearing in comparisons of the data sets documenting the SPY-USEI relationship even earlier than last August, but I mention it here because the USEI reached its record high level that month.
full text & critical conclusion: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2127003-the-s-and-p-500-and-u-s-economic-index-continue-decoupling
You Got to Know When to Hold 'em
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
J.J. McGrath,
http://jjsriskybusiness.blogspot.com/2011/09/you-got-to-know-when-to-hold-em.html
Consistent with the anticipatory approach outlined in "A DEW Line for Market Operators" yesterday, I monitor this continuous feedback loop between the economy and the stock market in a number of ways. One of them entails comparing the condition of the proprietary U.S. Economic Index (USEI) with the condition of the nonproprietary Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 (SPX).
Mixing Institute for Supply Management manufacturing and nonmanufacturing figures with a special sauce, I developed the USEI in an effort to capture all of my country's economic activity in a single number I can employ in the guidance of my investing and trading. A fool's errand? Maybe. Maybe not.
Mark Young 'announced' his 'disposition' on Da_Chief
for your entertainment
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=153483
well, sitting on his own mountain top, Da_Chief is singing:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29470817
>> 03/31/14 Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) (close)
close ADM (not a right timing for new entry).
clean out pending calls/infos
the remaining open calls are EXPE & FB (short)
will focus on index large swing trade.
>> hyper stocks sell off again
>> 04/03
>> PCLN EXPE FB TRIP NFLX WDAY NOW LNKD AMZN CRM TWTR
>> TSLA (story stock)
sell-off is in accelerating mode
i have EXPE & FB fill-gap calls waiting to be closed
04/04/14 Gold (close)
>> 03/24/14
>> The latest data suggest the near term support is
>> 1305, 1298.5-1282.2, +/-.
>> Without closing above 1328 +/- in the next 2 weeks, the chance to
>> see 1425 +/- is getting slimmer in the high window in coming
>> April/May thru July/August.
recent low on Apr 01 1278.10
Day's Range: 1,284.50 - 1,307.00 (in progress)
source: http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Gold future bounce off the support zone, watch 1328.
I opened too may watching targets, to prevent my toes slipping out, I close my gold watch.
04/04/14 SPX Turbulence
the following one-year cycle together with its harmonics suggest the coming April/May juncture +/- could form an important inflection point, this is in consistency with prior cycle assessment that a multiple month peak/trough will be made. The week-to-week phasing polarity is hard to predict.
SPX intraday high 1897.28 @ this writing
unrealized intermediate term high target is 1903.59. (1879.42-1887.57-1903.59)
the middle term high target is 1944.65 (1931.41-1944.65).
bear gauge 1859.67
intermediate term low target zone:
zone 1 - (1845.71-1816.12)
gauge for zone 2 1785.29
zone 2 - (1788.24-1746.83)
large retracement: (1718.03-1649.95)
S&P 500 will peak around 1,900 to 1,950 then drop 30%: Saxo Bank strategist
April 3, 2014, 10:52 AM ET
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/03/sp-500-will-peak-around-1900-to-1950-then-drop-30-saxo-bank-strategist/
>> 03/18/2014 LNG (close)
>> GLNG - Golar LNG Ltd
>> TGP - Teekay LNG Partners LP
>> GMLP - Golar LNG Partners LP
>> CQP - Cheniere Energy Partners LP
I posted LNG info on 03/18, chart speaks for itself.
as of 04/04,I 'close' this info.
TGP gained 10% in the reported period. However, these are dividend stocks, don't expect 30-50% hike. Do Your own DD.
GOOG & GOOGL
Google Launches Nonvoting Stock In 2-For-1 Split
Google is known for its April Fools' Day jokes. The 2-for-1 stock split brings 501 components to the S&P 500
Those new Class C shares on Thursday started trading under the GOOG ticker.
Class A shares shifted to the GOOGL ticker.
link 1
link 2
>> Housing bubble 2.0
jumanji
High housing price in Palo Alto/Mountain View area is a local phenomenon.
Palo Alto is a small city (23.884 sq mi , 61.858 sq km) near the north of the silicon valley California, it has very limited housing supply.
In recent years, there are many high-pay companies such as Google, LinkedIn ,, have “produced” thousand high-pay engineers. That is the main source to push the already tight housing market into red hot,
Location! Location! Location!
hyper stocks sell off again
PCLN EXPE FB TRIP NFLX WDAY NOW LNKD AMZN CRM TWTR
TSLA (story stock)
temple doom
Rivers: Re recession correlation
>> Have the end of bull markets triggered the recessions or
>> the opposite? "or" has it happened both ways?
imho:
Other than some leading/lagging phenomenon, in overall, the “end of bull markets” lags “the begin of recessions” roughly. In nature, the reported official recession date lags others indices, see the last chart.
It is the reversing of the economy direction triggers the reversing of the stock market direction. The underling intrinsic economy strength can be reflected by the lagging Industrial Production index and stock market strength can be reflected by Industrial Production index.
Since the Industrial Production index is lagging in nature, this is the reason why I also post the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) data. Please bear in mind that every method has its limitation, I am just looking for a weather-vane's directional guide .
Let me put the focus on the statistics:
- Correlation and dependence http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence
so, we collect the raw data for both the monthly Industrial Production index and S&P500 index, from 01/09-12/10 and run a Correlation test see what happen?
monthly Industrial Production index
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO
Or
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/fedstl/indpro
Monthly SPX data can be found in:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^GSPC&a=00&b=3&c=1950&d=03&e=3&f=2014&g=m
How to calculate correlation accurately
http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2008/11/05/how-to-calculate-pearson-correlation-accurately/
The data set has only 24 members, one may enter the whole data set manually via this handy calculator http://easycalculation.com/statistics/correlation.php
Correlation coefficients whose magnitude are between 0.7 and 0.9 indicate variables which can be considered highly correlated. Correlation coefficients whose magnitude are between 0.5 and 0.7 indicate variables which can be considered moderately correlated ( from http://www.andrews.edu/~calkins/math/edrm611/edrm05.htm )
Use the equations (from the aforementioned link), the correlation coefficient is 0.71391 in the period 01/09-12/10. You many run the test for the period you are focusing on.
The following chart shows the year-over-year change in Industrial Production, in relation to the S&P 500. Industrial Production measures output from the US manufacturing base. High Production signifies a strong, vibrant economy, and can stimulate a bullish stock market.
Notes:
the falloff in Industrial Production during recessionary times.
Grey zone is recession
an interactive version can be found in:
http://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/Industrial-Production-chart/
original data source:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/3
04/02/14 DJI & SPX
>> 03/31 10:42:27 AM
>> DJI has an unrealized high target 16810.
>> Now, it is struggling to test the recent high 16588.25.
DJI intraday high is 16,588.19, The retest is successful
Here is the possible DJI high target zone:
The range is 16719.24 - (16810.54) -17150.25
http://forexrainbow.com/images/72900777363167492412.jpg
SPX
The unrealized (intermediate term) high target is 1903.59.
for wave 5/V/(3)
1903.59 = 1737.92 + 1.618*(1729.86-1627.47)
http://forexrainbow.com/images/85205427314277595081.jpg
the middle term high target is 1944.65 (1931.41-1944.65).
after complete 5/V/(3), the pullback is wave (4), then, will deal with another up wave (5), but it is not to the End.
check the following chart (was presented July last year) for a complete sequence in E-wave perception (Note: means not real, just a wishful thought), long way to go.....
http://forexrainbow.com/images/73172724958037233154.jpg
Sometimes a sizable pullback may be mistakenly recognized as the end of bull, However, without a classic confirmation, it is hard to say the "Top" is in. As long as bull can hold the critical support zone 1450-1620 +/- . the stock bull market (since 2009) is firmly intact.
The Trend Is Your Friend, Until It Ends
stock bull market to live a 6th year?
What this stock bull market needs to live a 6th year
March 7, 2014, 2:12 p.m. EST
What ended nearly every (bull market) was a recession, so we need continued economic growth, said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.
Here’s what this bull market needs to do to make it to its sixth birthday: .... .....
read more:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-this-stock-bull-market-needs-to-live-a-6th-year-2014-03-06
CZZ is up 4% with 2X volume
intraday high 11.99.
it has a local breakout, but still shy $0.5 for an overall trend breakout (around 12.5), My hands are itching.
getmenews: An excellent call
I added 1 to your "counter"
>> getmenews Wednesday, 02/26/14 04:41:17 AM
>> 1889`1890 top is in on this cycle
>> http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=97868633
getmenews: An excellent call
I added 1 to your "counter"
[ http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=97868633 ]
A real HFT transaction record
[translated post, highly simplified]
MURMUR ON HUDSON
Friday, September 21, 2012
One day in March 2012, there was a MR. Lee came to our forum. He posted contact info for funding an investment project in HFT. His post invited many Middle fingers, he ran into the Exit door.
I wondered MR. Lee’s “fate”. Six months later, for curiosity, I contacted him. He sent me a bulky transaction records, then I realized he was a programmer for Chicago exchange. Apparently, he knew the trick on HFT.
Yeah!, impressive indeed.
From October 3, 2011 to November 4, 2012, his recodes showed daily profit from $3K to $112K, there was no single day loss!
(gross profit, his overall expense is unknown)
pick 3 daily result randomly:
10/03/2011 3810 transactions, profit $9,198.74
10/21/2011 4365 transactions, profit $112,617.98
11/04/2011 3824 transactions, profit $5543.04
The transaction record is too long to post, I clipped one here for you guy’s reference
For example: on 11/21/11. 11 Hour 59 Mins. 13 Sec, within that one second, he bought 1000 shares @16.41, within the same second, he sold @16.42, subtracted the misc. fee $4.71, he made an instant profit $5.29.
>> RE 03/05/14 close CZZ (review)
>> 03/05/14
>> stock did not pick up in one month time period (02/07-03/05)
>> and the opportunity window is waning out.
>> Wait for the next opportunity window.
CZZ
02/07, closed at 11.88
03/05, closed at 11.77,
03/31, marked an intraday low 10.33
04/02, intraday high 11.82 @ this writing
Although the falling wedge is a generally bullish pattern,
so far, there is no breakout, i would like to wait a few more sessions.
counts are wishful thinking, they are morphing quickly too.
Fed needed to intervene in the gold market
The Federal Reserve Has No Integrity
Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzle
March 31, 2014
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/03/31/federal-reserve-integrity/
an excerpt:
As part of its intervention in the currency market to get the dollar back over 80, the Fed also needed to stop gold from rising back over $1400, which it was on the verge of doing by the middle of March. Just like 80 is key level, below which technical selling of the dollar kicks in, $1425 is another key level for gold for which large buy and short-covering orders would be triggered. In other words, to support any manipulated move higher in the dollar, the Fed needed to intervene in the gold market to force the price of gold lower.
As we reported previously, the Fed, using its agent banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, intervenes in the gold market by “bombing” the market with a large quantity of Comex gold future contracts.
04/01/14 USD
USD 'flirts' with 80, no resolution
run out of patience. close the following outlook
>> 02/16/14 07:14:20 PM
>> USD chart .
>> from the following chart, the USD index since July/2011,
>> imho, exhibits a clear a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x-a-b-c sequence.
>> The USD index is in an onset readiness position to commence
>> its acceleration advance to complete the last 'c'.
>> The wave principle is somewhat in an impressionistic sense
>> but it gives a rough guide .
04/01/14 DJI
>> 03/29 04:48:32 PM
>> For a complete view, it is necessary to put dual gauges:
>> 1874.47 (bull) and 1849.50 (bear).
>>
>> 03/31 10:42:27 AM
>> The divergence between DJI and SPX (NDX RUT) worth attention,
>> DJI has an unrealized wave extension high target 16810.
>> Now, it is struggling to test the recent high 16588.25.
>>
>> 04/01 12:23:42 AM
>> The polarity for general market before April 15/16 was expected
>> to be negative (low).
>> Now, it seems the polarity might be positive (to be confirmed),
Bull has the upper hand.
DJI intraday high 16565.73, this is an in-progress data
Here is the possible DJI high target zone:
The range is 16719.24 - (16810.54) -17150.25
>> 02/14 03:15:02 PM