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I really would have thought that a gigantic and gala event including all the distinguished guests that we had in Shanghai, at The Four Seasons no less, would've intrigued or impressed enough people to see a spike in either shareprice or volume. Huh, just what does it take to move this train? Profits- apparently not, exponential revenue increases- nope, and now even PR's seem ineffectual as per the last three. Let's hope that when management gets another acquisition on line and announces it, that it will be greeted with the enthusiasm of 4 million share days, like we had not too long ago.
I believe someone speculated that we would see a jump in SP to the 80's because of the Orlando meeting, and I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think so. This is not a "road show" or "dog and pony" event where we showcase all the great things we are doing to an eager group of investors. Rather, this is literally preaching to the choir as everyone going to the meeting has comitted the same deadly investing sin as I have... to fall in love with the stock. That is why I've owned it 4 long years and never sold a share. It has simply not been a prudent or judicious investment philosophy considering the huge price swings in that time period. It's certainly indicative of tenacity and perseverence as all long-term investors here have demonstrated. Let's hope those two awesome qualities are enough to appease the gods of shareprice and market cap as we look forward to the only two things that will rock this stock, and those are great Q3 numbers and another acquisition or so.
Doc
Good point Cabby, I believe you're right on "believe".
I also believe that another concept Hartcourt's management will try to capitalize on is "branding". If they operate under one umbrella and get a great ops "name" going, they can turn and morph the retail biz model to include not only competing brands (various PC products rather than just Dell for instance), but they could diversify the point of purchase product base and become a Circuit City-Radio Shack- meets Best Buy entity that simply started in pure IT sales. They could go to a more B to B subsidiary model based on increasing expertise in the market and the hardware, and form a biz/network tech wing to handle all the ensuing corporate and government changeovers (from paper and abacus lol) that will be necessary in the not too distant future with WTO and the Olympics accelerating the whole process.
The big "intangible" I see, as pro football coaches and analysts are prone to say (and I, for one can't wait for the season), is that what HRCT has accomplished is being analyzed for its "stand alone" aspects and its filings and numbers, but perhaps its truest and biggest accomplishment is the building of a "platform of possibilities" by establishing a $200m rev company in the PRC. The possibilities of new directions and a more diversified business model are virtually endless with choices like retail expansion, streamlining of costs, more corporate acquisitions, commercial and government contracts or applications, bundling software products, or moving into completely new areas of business in the emerging markets of China.
We have always had a solid captain and crew with a good business and moral compass, and there is a strong wind coming from the east; this Q simply proves we have just finished building our ship. Where we goeth is up to where the providence of wind and good corporate governance shall take us.
Aye, aye... and 'tis a fine ship indeed.
Doc
Isn't NESS at about 60 cents right now? It sure doesn't look like $1.30 was the best entry point... is this a good one or is there more downside to come? Thanks.
Doc
jmap- now that's hilarious! We need more humor for a few days... maybe that's what Tennis meant when he wanted more "positve" things done.
I personally am going to simply begin drinking and belching, while smoking and mowing the lawn, just to show some polite deference to our Chinese hosts and partners in this, our 20th year. I also think we've all discounted the long-term impact of the event itself (at the Four Seasons, no less), and what it is emblematic of, which is long-term business relationships in China. I believe they are invaluable relationships and are severely underestimated by American investors who reflect the western philosphy of cut and dried business models instead of the fact that we are succeeding in playing the game the Chinese way... and very well, I might add. Some expected a pop in SP and have been hyper-focused on short-term profits. I added 10k shares more yesterday, which obviously would've been a better purchase today, but c'est la vie. Been in it for 4 years and this is the healthiest, most focused, and most successful the company has ever been. This is the smallest leap of faith, if at all, as a shareholder in this stock, that I've ever seen.
Excellent points, and I too ascribe to the school of intent. However, you brought up grammar, not I. You then attacked the argument you yourself made. That's the fallacy of the straw man in logic, and it's a bait and switch in argument. As far as expediency, it takes no longer to be correct than to be incorrect. So much for my "cheat sheet", I guess. Wow, this board has got a little attitude today. Probably understandable. Typos, misspellings, abbreviated grammar, acronyms, etc. are no problem for me, however the patterned abuse of some common pronouns and cognates does a disservice to young readers, foreign posters, the language itself, and non-native speakers. I'm not exactly on a rampage here with only one topical post on the issue, so let's get off the tribal perspectives and memes of Golding's Lord Of The Flies. As Rodney would say... "Ooh, it's a tough room, I tell ya..."
That would be "hear, hear" as a "caller" in the old days would announce news to the illiterate public while walking the streets, swinging a lantern, and ringing a bell. Maybe we could hire one to announce HRCT's successes and expand our shareholder base accordingly. LOL. It would help if he was multilingual too!
For all-
they're- a contraction of they are- like "they're idiots"
their- a plural possessive pronoun- like "their patience is gone"
there- a demonstrative pronoun, like "over there, in China"
I just hate to see American adults repeatedly butchering the spelling of the English language in front of our foreign friends, and I bemoan the curses of a weak public school system.
hear- what one does with ears
here- another demonstrative pronoun- like "right here"
lose- what we hope the shorts do
loose- the kind of women I like
No, I'm not the spelling police, it just drives me nuts to see such a cavalier attitude towards proper English.
Doc
BA- Great Post! I too hope they belch well. Ha, still laughing... great post!
I think the numbers are, in fact, fairly realistic... as this very website and the press releases have stated about $3 million in profit annually (I used 3.6). We get to book 45% of that. Period. Divide by outstanding shares, and apply a PE. There ya go.
Throw in a couple more acquistions, group buying and advertising power cutting operational costs, clear double-digit increases in the China PC sales target market, the awesome size of the Chinese market en generale, the low percent of PC market penetration-like 5% compared to our 50%, possible different exchange listing, and a few other factors, and these are the reasons to own this stock. I've seen it all since '99 with this stock and it is certainly a "new HRCT", however irrational exhuberance as far as big real profits like 3 cents per Q is premature and dangerous in its expectations on the street, remember- analysts talk down expectations and then the companies beat 'em...
All I'm sayin' is that we will hit a penny this Q and (David has recently said essentially that with... "mark a new era in co. history"). Next Q, we hope for 2 cents and one more company joining our group. Q after that... another penny or two, one or two more acquistions. This is how large scaled enterprise works. We are doing good in a great market, we have great players in the company, solid business model, revs and profits to rival the rest, sit back cuz this will take a little while. It's a game for the patient; and there are many of us here from 4 1/2 years ago, so we have all gotten our merit badges in perseverance and tenacity. Good luck to us all.
Doc
Jeez Walsh, I sure hope you're right. Let's just see here though... HRCT has bought a boatload of Revs to be sure, but a surprisingly small margin of profitability, (like 200m in revs and 3.6m in profits, though with streamlining etc. that terrible percent is easy to increase).
Excuse me though, I digress... so take 45% of 3.6m and you get 1.62m. Ok, now that we own more than 45% of NHS we can lock all of their profit on the books; so let's say we hit about 2 million in profit for an entire 12 month fiscal year. Divide the now approximately 120 million shares outstanding by $2 million in profit and you get .017 cents profit per share for the year, no? (Each $1.2 million in profit yearly is equal to one penny per share per year.) EPS will be like 2, 3, or maybe even 4 cents for the year (if we acquire more co.'s and absolutely jam)... which means about a penny per quarter, eh?
Now apply a PE ratio of about 50, just cuz it's a nice round number, and then we should sell for about $2 per share, right? Please check my math.
Doc
A higher PE should also be a result of the fact that we are a growing company versus a mature company which has hit an earnings plateau. Our earnings based on current holdings versus the aggressive acquisition goals we have should also accord it a higher PE as it holds a greater potential for more explosive growth in earnings. So, we have streamlining of costs (through co-op purchasing, management overlap elimination, and advertising), acquisitions, and huge growth in our sector in a virtually virgin market to justify a much higher PE than 20.
If you really want to project, you should also use leading year's earnings instead of trailing year's. If HRCT will make a penny this Q... it implies about a nickel for the year. Next year should be about .07 or more, or whatever... and then times like 50-80 for the ratio... that gives us a price window of about $3.50- $5.60 within the next 6-12 months.
JMHO
Excuse my less than liberal stance given the tone and timber of the OT discussion, but... I believe that we had a moral imperative in Iraq much the same way we had one when we bombed Yugoslavia for 79 days to stop the oppression and subjugation of people. Bill Clinton and both houses of congress voted in favor of the Iraqi Liberation Act signed in 1998, and it included methods and means to garner a regime change in Iraq. We finally did it, that's all. Neither blame nor credit should be heaped on current leadership too much for simply doing what we (Democrats and Republicans) knew was right all along.
After 23 years of rule, Mr. Hussein was directly responsible for about 2.5 million deaths (including the war with Iran), so at about 10,000 deaths per month we have "netted" a substantial gain already in the pursuit of ending a bit of human suffering on this planet.
I will say however, that the media of the "left" told us that the Ramallah oil fields would be ablaze, Scuds would be lobbed at Kuwait and Israel, dams would be destroyed and the agrarian lands would be flooded, chemical weapons would be unleashed on our troops, that we didn't have enough troops to pull this off, our supply lines were too thin, we were too slow- then too fast, and that the scorched earth policy Hussein used in Kuwait, similar to that of Incipio in the 3rd Punic War, would be devastating. None of these things happened. I guess the media always seems slanted in the opposite direction of one's beliefs.
I do agree that this peace will be harder to win than anticipated, but the rewards in lives saved, and this country's religious/political interests in the region will be furthered considerably because of our intervention. It may take 3-5 years to get there though.
Doc
Some things are worth fighting for.
I think you're both wrong. It is primarily a news-driven stock, and therefore you cannot sell it before a price or event objective because you may be on the sidelines for a couple weeks after holding it for 4 years and miss a huge upside on a release. I would shoot myself if I missed a major move because of trying to chart a news stock. The biggest moves this stock has made, both recently and historically, have been because of a press release. If you can chart when the next PR comes out... I'm a believer. After a few more quarters and more development of the big picture there should be enough fundamentals for me to look at the charts.
OT Tin et al, I noticed GTEC rocked today also... any opinions on their company? They seem to have an interesting business model and good 1st Q '03 vs '02 revs... up 87%.
HRCT's chart is looking beautiful!
The delay in the SEC action is what I find most distressing. Alan donating his boatload of shares, regardless of when it was, as of Feb. of '03 it was only worth 300k vs. their allegation of an 800k shell game. Also, Alan's generosity and integrity are illustrated by the donation itself to us perhaps, but the SEC shouldn't be swayed one way or the other, in my opinion, by "good acts" diminishing or altering their perception of deceptive corporate behavior. It is imminently possible they are obligated by policy to do this in some respect, it is simply unfortunate to happen to a good guy like Mr. Phan, us, and our stock. But, we don't want toothless watchdogs that are fooled by a bait and switch by the truly bad guys either. Again, my issue with this action is that they have waited almost 4 years to pursue what they even call false press releases too. If it was so damn serious why did they wait? Also, why are we, the followers and the loyal, clearly the last people to know what is up? The stock got whacked because of this report long before we knew anything. We all had expected to get hammered on thursday but the bloodletting had already happened. Also, apparently the "other" companies we have acquired have been informed of this issue... but not us, the shareholders. It is a bit disconcerting, however, I added more at .54 and am ready to roll next week.
After a huge anticipatory day yesterday that turned out just fine, I am exhausted. We HRCT shareholders deserve a round of applause for holding the line, and not just for the last 4 years, I'm talkin' about the last week and a half! Hey, does anyone have a call on the next China play to add to my sinoportfolio? Pick a cheap undiscovered one, eh?
Good point.
In the words of every great journalist re most bad scenes... "we are shocked and dismayed at this senseless tragedy".
I, personally, have a sort of Jungian duality of feelings towards this mess... on one hand I never considered selling for at least another year or more, so it's kind of a "who cares" in respect to short-term shareprice, and I do like their new biz plan with all the acquisitions and real revenues.
On the other hand, I can't reconcile the rather cavalier attitude of Big Al saying all the bases are basically covered in one breath, and saying it's a "major challenge" for HRCT to the press. Quite frankly, that is a quote that he, I hope, wishes he never said.
Well, which one is it? He also says that it won't change a thing over the next year, so why is it a major challenge? It keeps buggin' me... anybody know? Which one is it, Al? Is this a frivolous hyper-attenuated lawsuit pushed by an overzealous gov. employee, or is it a major challenge?
"Methinks thou dost protest too much"
Hey Rookie, don't feel too bad... I examine the phraseology, intent, voice, stylistic approach, interrogatives, descriptive verbiage, double entendres, faux sincerity, transparency, redundancy, implication, inference, didactism, diametrical purpose, and of course... my gut feeling, in regards to all posters.
I truly am sorry if we are wrong, however... I gots a goooood gut when it comes to a flim flam man, dude.
What is applied here however, is more than just English Lit. It involves a tad o' psych., the experience of years of bashers, analysis of logical incongruities, seeming veiled commentary, intent reconciled (or not) with galling yet not credible naivete', and in some cases... the anthropomorphism of the basher mentality.
Again, I could be wrong. Maybe it's 3/00 baggage for which I need a new stock love to cure me, and most assuredly... Time will tell, but if what I suspect is true, I bet Mr. Rookie, will have to earn his keep with a bit more editing, because a few of us are keepin' an eye on him.
Welcome to the concept of checks and balances my friend... been there, done that. I got the t-shirt, snow dome, ashtray, salt and pepper shakers, velvet Elvis, refrigerator magnet, key fob, motion pen, hat, and shot glass when it comes to bashers.
I will however, be civil and patient with you as I'm sure you'll reveal yourself more as the thematic approach of "hrct doubt" under the thin and foggy guise of "Rookie-ness" becomes all too clear. No spellcheck for me. You?
English Lit. major. Thank you. It was my first degree.
Sure has that "gee whiz, I was just askin'" kind of Jethro logic to it... maybe we're wrong. Time will tell.
Doc
You go Grrrrrrl!
You know... maybe Blackheart had a good point in that a giant informative post could be reposted several times a day on Raging Bull in case some newbies show up over there and never make it here.
BH- Most of this is sage advice to be sure, but without the esprit de corps, the rallying call, and ultimately the touchdown dance, most struggles and life itself would have little purpose or flavor. We have shoveled donkey fazoo around in our portfolios for 3 solid years to keep the Hartcourt dream alive by holding our shares; some have added to their positions substanially during that time (thank you 20k more at .08), and there has been an absolutely stellar run for a number of weeks culminating in the wed./thur. .44 run. You should perhaps see that we need to let the troops party and smoke a cigarette in the palace, if they want, for at least a few days. Then, I guess we all go back to our duty as Big Al's grunts in the front lines of investment... the OTCBB.
Maybe we should try to compile a composite informational post to bring visitors up to speed and re-post it several times a day, but the board itself does most of that already. (Tin- et al) have done such a great job of setting up this I-Hub site that by the time any newbies scroll down to the messages, they should have availed themselves to a boatload o' info already.
The age-old question of whether, as a leader, it is better to be loved or feared is emblematic of our situation now. My answer to that question is: when times are bad it is better to be feared, when times are good, it is better to be loved.
Let 'em party a bit more.
Year End Prediction of HRCT closing price(Within a dollar):
You get one guess only and do not change it. Some one will be watching, :)
Mister EC 9.50
Releasemas 17.50
TheWorld 23.50
TFN - $11
EastWind $7.5
McCorry: 12,50$
MBR. A member of the $200.00+ OTCBB Elite!
Betty Ann24 7.77
TENNISSTUD: $6.00
jmap: $8.31 - my lucky #
Aries: $5.00
RdTrip85 $6.25
rapall- $13.00
Irons3 $4.95
Nev_investor $11,59
$pooky $16.60
Daddycool100 $19.95
Doc_Nuance $3.87
UndfinRich ..... $ 4.25 .... strong and focused :)
Mocha Jet - $8.11
ScrapFe..$14.92
GeorgeSLC..$11.71
jcg0176..Within one year we will be acquired by a company with a market cap over 10 billion.
Year End Prediction of HRCT closing price(Within a dollar):
You get one guess only and do not change it. Some one will be watching, :)
Mister EC 9.50
Releasemas 17.50
TheWorld 23.50
TFN - $11
EastWind $7.5
McCorry: 12,50$
MBR. A member of the $200.00+ OTCBB Elite!
Betty Ann24 7.77
TENNISSTUD: $6.00
jmap: $8.31 - my lucky #
Aries: $5.00
RdTrip85 $6.25
rapall- $13.00
Irons3 $4.95
Nev_investor $11,59
$pooky $16.60
Daddycool100 $19.95
Doc_Nuance $3.87
So... like what other picks?
There's no way anyone could sleep with this news out. So, I guess the last 20 minutes of trades were the friends, family, and "A" list of HRCT who were privy to the report before the 3:11am news release... or what? Regardless, how high can this thing go tomorrow? Go HRCT!!!
This is deja vu all over again!!! All these familiar names and memories of our glory days in late '99 and early '00. Haven't posted in years because of guilt, shame, or just feeling beaten up... but lately, I just didn't want to shake any of the great mojo we've got goin' on with our chart looking like a rocket. I've bought in at a zillion different price points, and so I really have no idea what my average is, however when I saw the volume jump up pretty good on 2/19/03 I bought 20,000 more at .08. I think it was a reward for never having sold a single share. I kicked myself many times for not selling some, now I pat myself on the back. Time sure is a fickle partner in investing. From genius to idiot to genius in less than 4 years. It's like not throwing away your old ties because they'll be back in fashion someday.
BTW... didn't someone say this company is worth more now than before when it was at $20? Au contraire... although there were only about 15 mill. shares O/S back then, that still would have given it a market cap of $300 million. Right now there is around 100 million shares outstanding X .80 which only equals 80 million bucks. Share price would have to be about $3 to be the same market cap. Quite frankly, the new HRCT is definitely more deserving of a $300 million market cap, or more, now than it was before. The old HRCT had great vision with no real discernable methodology... now we've got a solid and clear plan to achieve market leader status without having to reinvent the wheel. It's a bit more "gee whiz" in that you form a consortium of similar companies to garner better purchasing price points, co-op some advertising, and streamline some operational stuff. Pretty simple, straight forward, and time-tested business and economic principles for success.
I also think that there may be a few "bundling opportunities" such as putting our software for e-learning, or financial website links, etc., etc, in with the computers we sell... you know, the same stuff that Microsoft was doing "wrong" here is probably ok to do in China. It's a "value added" promotion or something over there I hope.
Regardless, congratulations to one and all for our tenacity and loyalty to a fault. It just goes to show that "The tears of adversity water the seeds of success".
Doc
Wow! 3.6 million volts of volume has fired up us old hopefuls... there sure are a lot of familiar names from a couple years ago. I guess it points to a commonality of human nature in that everyone held on to their shares even though the stock looked dead in the water. Hope springs eternal.
The biggest increase, statistically speaking, is not the share volume or even the price, but rather the total amount of cash traded in hrct. It was trading at about .06-.08 for ages and doing about 100-150k shares per day. Compare that with today's volume and it is... let's say 25-30 times increase... or 3,000%.
On the other hand it was only $8,000-$10,000 per day back then, and today we traded about $1,500,000 worth or... 15,000%!!!