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CPN has about 22% of it's shares shorted. Given that it may survive I'd call that very high.
Only mentioned it since you mentioned the QQQ's.
>> Not real sure if this market has any more rally in it or not. <<
Not sure either. Raised a little cash on the open and then just now bought back a few positions. Gold (HUI) still down about 4%. I'm thinking we close green today or at the very least get one more decent bounce.
I like the fact that we closed the gap on the Naz. Staying long PDLI, MLNM, CRA and QLTI.
The bio's didn't retest July lows. May portend future leadership. Still too early to tell though.
>> we have all the makings of a bottom... <<
If that's the case I expect defensive positions such as gold to get wacked much harder than they currently are.
July produced a pretty good rally and notice what happened to gold during that timeframe:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[h,a]daclyiay[pb50!b100!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9]&....
At the very least I'd like to see gold hit $315 again and go under $320 tomorrow or friday or I'll be very skeptical of this rally having any legs.
Slowing selling long positions on the way up.
Have I mentioned that I loaded CRA sub 7.5? <G>.
Bio's rocking. PDLI and MLNM each up about 10%. CRA is still under $8 with no debt and $13 cash/share on hand. Gotta believe it bounces back to at least 9-10 near term once it breaks 8 again.
Reduced PDLI and MLNM to more reasonable levels. Was overloaded.
>> Here comes the CRASH.... <<
Unlikely. Markets do not crash 2-3 years after the initial bubble bursts. A slow grind to new lows on the DOW and S&P? Maybe, but I'm guessing we relieve some of this oversold condition first.
The fact that gold broke significantly above 325 and gold stocks are only up .23% (HUI) is a good sign for the longs (tech) here. Could see one more shot down post Fed, but keeping my longs here baring any significant news. (CRA, PDLI, MLNM, MEDX, QLTI, GENZ).
Loaded up on CRA today in biotechs. $13 cash on hand. Burn level dropping to a little over $1 per share/per year and the stock is trading under $7.50. Have to believe it's at least safe for a bounce here back to the $10 level. Like a few other bio techs here as well, but being very selective (ADRX, QLTI, MLNM, PDLI). In agreement with quite a few here that we get a rally here pretty soon.
Any opinions on CRA? Cash level per share is over $13, yet stock is at 7.4. I was buying heavy today. They are reducing their cash burn rate to a little over $1 per year. Have to think this one bounces at the very least.
CSCO news/AH. Seems to me that this Cisco news should be expected by now. Anyone see any other reason(s) why the Naz futures are downs 1.3%?
BTB better be good.
Not short here, and medium size long position in AKLM.
Cisco: Order Backlog Has Fallen 30 Pct
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020918/tech_cisco_8.html
Wednesday September 18, 4:17 pm ET
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of equipment that directs Internet traffic, on Wednesday said its order backlog has fallen 30 percent over the past year, raising concerns among analysts that the company may not meet revenue expectations in the current quarter.
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San Jose, California-based Cisco said in its annual 10-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that its backlog was about $1.4 billion on Sept. 9, down from about $2 billion a year earlier. Backlog includes orders for products to be shipped within 90 days.
"That's a pretty steep decline," said one analyst, who asked not to be identified.
Cisco had a backlog of $3.83 billion in September 2000, and $922 million in September 1999, a company spokeswoman said.
"Cisco does not believe that its backlog, as of any particular date, is necessarily indicative of actual net sales for any future period," the company said in the filing.
Cisco previously has said it is focused on reducing its product delivery lead time and improving customer satisfaction, and that leads to lower backlog figures.
Cisco shares closed off 25 cents, or 1.99 percent, at $12.29 in heavy Nasdaq composite trading.
The company said last month that it expects revenue in the current quarter, its fiscal first quarter, to be unchanged or slightly higher compared with the fourth quarter's $4.8 billion.
Analysts expect Cisco to earn 13 cents a share in the current quarter, before one-time items, on revenue of $4.89 billion, according to Thomson First Call. In the same quarter last year the company had revenue of $4.4 billion.
"You have a lower backlog and a higher revenue expectation right now. Obviously, that's a red flag because those two things go counter to each other," Prudential Securities analyst Inder Singh said.
He said he had heard Cisco's August business in its two largest segments, routers and switches, was slow, but there was still plenty of time to make up any possible shortfall as more than half the quarter's business was expected in the second half of a quarter, which ends Oct. 26.
"It's still early to completely say that they're not going to make it," said Singh, who has a "buy" rating on Cisco shares.
CIBC World Markets analyst Steve Kamman said Cisco's backlog was simply returning to historical rates the prevailed before the boom years that telecom experienced in 1999 and 2000 before spending collapsed.
He said the $1.4 billion backlog is 29 percent of revenues, while the $2 billion backlog was 45 percent of sales. The rate in September 2000 was 58 percent; in September 1999 it was 24 percent; and in September 1998 it was 27 percent, he said.
"The backlog is coming off phenomenal numbers from the bubble years," said Kamman, who has a "sector perform" rating on Cisco shares. "Less backlog is not a good thing, but what you're really returning to is a more normal trend level."
SOX looking to close near/at the LOD with a new 52 week low. UGLY!
Another new 52 week low for the SOX.
Completely out again. Agree about the horrible close. If the market trends higher from here I'll consider shorting, but not going to short going into tomorrow.
Made about 2% on my portfolio for all that work over 1.5 days. Not sure if it was worth the time spent, but a profit is still a profit.
Anyone know why SUNW is so weak today in a sea of green?
Cash now around 30%. Still think there's more upside to come EOD and tomorrow.
The 911 bounce could/should last into tomorrow morning as there are some who will wait until 911 passes completely before getting in. Sold about 20% on the initial bounce this morning. Still think we get another surge when the rest of the markets open.
>> they attacked the WTC not once but twice.
Remember 1993?.. <<
Exactly my point. 8 years apart. That's the timeframe for these terrorist. Do they have the resources to make attacks such as Sept 11 every year? I don't think so. Is the date of Sept 11th important to them or just hitting us when we're unaware? More the later imho.
While caution is certainly waranted in the long and medium term I think the investment risks associated with tomorrow are overblown.
Is it possible that we've already had the rally and we'll sell on the news? Or rather lack of? Possible, but again as others have noted look at the July 5th rally when we had the possibility of an attack on July 4th and it failed to materialize?
Will trim back to 50% or more cash by the end of tomorrow.
>> 1. Nothing happens at all. (~30% chance, IMHO)
2. Something or things happen, but they are small enough to be taken in stride. (~60% chance, IMHO)
3. Something big happens. (~10% chance, IMHO) <<
-----------------------------------------
In my opinion...
1) Nothing = 90%. These are gutless bastards. They'll attack when we're least expecting it, not when we're on highest alert. If they're captured before killing themselves...no alah.
2) Something 5-10%. Plenty of copy-cats unfortunately.
3) Something big = 1-2%. Either way it's even less likely that it'll be on the scale of last year's attack.
Of course I'm biased because I'm fully loaded.
Tomorrow should be non-event. If the terrorist were going to strike back a better time would have been during the bombing raids in Afganistan. I think they'd rather lull us back into complacency. Their jihad has been going on for years so tomorrow may not be as significant to them. Anything that happens tomorrow will likely be minor. Either way fully loaded in my trading accounts.
The big institutional investors will not commit to big positions until tomorrow because they can't get in and out as easily. This is a good risk/reward in the short term for the small investor.
I'm buying today. Why does any buying these days have to be the PPT? Couldn't it be that Sept 11th will probably pass without incident (or at least nothing even remotely close to what happened last year)?
That said I'll probably sell most of my positions tomorrow into any rally.
>> NASDAQ To Delay Market Opening on September 11
New York, NY— Out of respect for the memorial services planned in New York City <<
Being a cynic one could also say they're delaying the open in case anything happens again.
>> As bad as sox is, naz has not made a new low for whatever that's worth. <<
I wouldn't want to go long the Naz with the SOX making new lows.
BRCD also continues lower. I thought that was one of Zeev's canaries.
AMAT also at new 52 week low. It's an understatement to call today's close critical.
New 52 week low for the SOX. 282.45 now.
Still neither long nor short. Waiting to see how the SOX reacts today.
Another new LOD for the SOX.
Only 5 pts left until a retest of 282. While I can see the potential for Zeev's short term bounce I can't see it playing it with such a large % of the portfolio at this level based upon risk/reward if the SOX makes a new low or the Naz breaks 1263.
Intel mid quarter update and Sept 11th may put a lid on any short term rallies.
Neither long nor short here.
BKX - >> I really have no idea what to call this, but it sure looks, (maybe "feels" is a better term?), like some kind of topping formation <<
A head and sholders formation can have more than 1 shoulder on each side (it's simply called a complex H&S).
FWIW.
>> Obviously the market can certainly go up,or hold its own, even in the face of the renewed IT spending weakness <<
How is that obvious after only 40 min of light pre-holiday trading?
What extent of this rally is simply relief and/or short covering? What extent of this rally is trying to relieve the SOX being down almost 20% in less than 10 days?
Glad you're so convinced. Me, I'm on the side that says new lows are more likely than unlikely going forward the next 6 months.
SOX in no man's land. It's clearly broken down into it's old downtrend channel and it's broken the recent uptrend from the July 24th low. Waiting to see where it closes today before deploying any cash. A retest of the lows at 282 is almost 10% down from the current levels.
>> "Gold stocks one of the strongest groups today" <<
IPP's up on average over 10% appiece. Look at CPN, MIR, ILA, RRI, XEL...that's your strongest group today. Was the same yesterday as well.
I do agree on gold. Between the Naz making yet another new high, the SOX divergence and gold stocks rising with gold going down...I sold quite a bit and started a short position in the Q's at 26. Net short here overall, but still have some long positions as well.
If the SOX closes where it's at today it'll break it's downtrend channel since mid May. The next two to four weeks would be our best chance to rally since there will be a lack of news comparitively. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Zeev, re: 1300
>> I am not sure, we should be bouncing back to the low 1300 according to the model <<
Is that timeframe today according to your model or more like Friday/Monday?
Time for those shorties to start covering...
(had to do it to you once SLY since you're always laughing at the shorts. LOL)
SPX breakout above 910-912 and NDX breakout above it's downtrend channel. Very nice.
Rest of the week will be interesting to see how much pressure options exp. puts on the market.
Not sure which channel you are referring to, but I'm looking at the one from mid May of this year. At least by my read NDX is currently above the channel. Helps explain the spike as well. Not sure where it'll close though.
Looks like we broke above the downtrend channel on the Nasdaq 100. Now let's see where we close.
I think we need to close above NDX 930 ish, but would like to see NDX 935+ to be convinced. Grabbed some BVF at 23.5.
Zeev - What's your prediction for today? Low/high/Close on Naz if you'd be so kind.
CKFR - not short, but these pro-forma results and the corresponding bounces in the stocks are BS imho.
.14 pro forma earnings vs -.67 GAAP. HMMMM.
>> On a GAAP basis for the quarter, CheckFree reported a net loss of $59.4 million, or a loss per share of $0.67, compared to a net loss of $87.7 million, or a loss per share of $1.01, for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2001. Pro forma results this quarter exclude: $89.3 million of acquisition related amortization; a $0.5 million update to a third quarter reorganization charge; and the previously mentioned $2.7 million non-cash charge associated with warrants; all offset by $20.3 million of related tax benefits. <<
>> IF THE AIM OF THE FED WAS TO CRASH THE MARKETS... CONGRATS!!! <<
The Fed was not the irresponsible one talking about 50 basis pts cuts or 1% rates by year's end. Either way Fed can only slow the decent at this point.
I can't borrow BBH (Biotech holders) for shorting. Anyone have any other suggestions as a proxy. Don't want to buy puts due to the premiums involved.
Looking for another closed end fund, but would consider a group of individual stocks.
>>What's a term for the opposite of catching a falling knife?<<
Roping an 'Abby'?
Mentioned BVF yesterday at 23, now 24.8. Broke it's 3 month downtrend line from 50 yesterday and followed through today. I see it going to 30 if it can break 25.5 ish. Any other TA opinions?
Growing at 30% with a PE under 15.