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Being a refugee from YMB, Enron is not a new topic to me.
Somehow I doubt that I am the first person you've ever heard counter the allegations that Ms. Powers is running an Enron like scheme (which was similar to Ponzi's in its ultimately sustainability).
Unsophisticated bashers bring up Enron, sophisticated ones talk about NWBO's relationship with Cognate.
I was rebutting both by choosing to address the former.
The line between creative financing and crooked financing is thinner than we like to admit.
Success or failure for one's shareholders also helps determine which side of the line one is on.
Whether you talk about Enron or Cognate or both, the discussion really revolves around the same question:
Is Linda Powers a crook?
I argue that no, she isn't.
Madoff may have looked like a subdued old man but the statements he made about his investor's earnings were flashy as can be and stretched the point of credulity.
Ms. Powers (and I am second to none in criticizing her hinting) has been much more restrained about earnings potential and much more specific about how we will make money when approval is won.
So I think that her intentions are good.
But if DCVax and NWBO fail, Ms. Powers will not escape blame for her financial creativity, the same creativity that would have been lauded or at least politely ignored if she had succeeded.
Escaping a lifetime of lawsuits and maybe criminal actions is a strong motivator for her to get this company across the finish line.
And that is what I am arguing she is working hard to do, for her sake, for the patient's sake and our sake as shareholders.
Having worked at Enron actually adds to Ms. Power's credibility here.
She knows all too well that every Ponzi scheme must come to an end, and saw the consequences for people she knew, or at least thought she knew when the police came knocking on their door.
Granted all Ponzi schemers have to know on some level that a day of reckoning will come.
I suppose these crooks just try not to think about it and instead simply enjoy their ill-gotten gains to the fullest extent for as long as they can before they have to go on the run or go to jail.
But I don't think Ms. Powers is a Ponzi schemer.
Ms. Powers does not look or act like a flashy figure who is reveling in the spoils of fraud while she can, as you see with the criminals featured on American Greed.
She simply does not fit the profile.
So I surmise that as irregular as her financial relationship with Cognate is, I think it is based on her honest belief that DCVax will work.
Like it or not, in some cases the ends justify the means.
Ms. Powers of all people knows that if she is wrong about DCVax and NWBO collapses, she will go down with the ship.
Cup and handle, cup and schmandle.
It used to be Golden Cross this and Golden Cross that.
Based on what I've seen from attempts to use charts since I've been following NWBO, I believe I could have an astrologer or a tarot card expert doing a reading on Ms. Powers or Mr. Goldman and have just as good an idea of where NWBO's stock price is going to go.
Charts might have a place for predicting stock price movements for large fairly stable companies that float with the market trends but not with small caps like NWBO.
Woodford is saying the same thing I am saying: there is a whole new wave of technological improvement coming of which NWBO is just one part.
Get out your surf board or get swamped.
Yes, indeed it is.
The burden of proof for something like this should be different.
The key is the safety profile.
The risk to reward ratio is a no-brainer.
Except for the money, the patients have literally nothing to lose by trying Direct, especially since they can't tolerate SOC anyway.
One day, we're going to be asking why it took so long to approve DCVax and why so many lives had to be lost that could have been saved.
Patients not dying is always a good thing.
But the terrible irony that this delays making the treatment available for the many other patients who could not get in the trial.
That's why HE and EAMS could have been so great.
It would have enabled early access, while getting the word out there.
Instead its as if we were just business as usual with HE and EAMS being nothing more than a feel good validation that we're on to something and the regulators seem to see it to.
I'm just going to treat NWBO like one of my dividend stocks.
I just bought them, held them, accumulated in good times and bad.
One day after five or six years I turned around and had a lot of money.
The same applies here.
I respect Ms. Powers a lot and will leave her to her work.
Maybe I'll even buy a little more over the next six months during the long news drought since I think the shorts will give me some opportunity.
If not, my other picks will be good too.
We're in the middle of a huge revolution, as big as the Internet.
NWBO will be a part of that, maybe a big part, but only a part.
If Halt for Efficacy weren't possible then yes.
But it is.
I meant competent on the PR side, not the business side.
Recruiting Woodford had a public relations impact but wasn't done by PR people.
The FDA already expedited the Phase 2 trials, even allowing them to start before Phase 1 is done (unless something has changed). NWBO is delaying, not the FDA.
The shorts will spin regardless so no point pandering.
They attacked the Phase III DMC for pity's sake.
The head of it had to come out and say that he had never before experienced such a thing in all of his years in the profession.
If they have such effrontery to do that, then an independent review is not going to matter.
The market will be believe what it wants to believe.
The market wants to believe there is an effective treatment for late stage cancer.
If we hire competent PR people they can handle the shorts.
Besides, what is true, rings true.
If DCVax Direct works, people will see that.
I'm not selling but I'm not buying more either.
I've found some other biotech plays that are worth investing in and I will put additional money in those opportunities.
As excited as I am about NWBO's technology, this company is but one part of the biotech revolution that will start changing everything during this decade.
By constantly leading us to believe that news is right around the corner when she knows quite well it is not, Ms. Powers has distracted me from those other opportunities.
That's her prerogative, but it is also mine to see through her game and stop investing more funds until she puts forward something tangible.
Its not that I don't like NWBO, its that it is just one drop in a huge wave that's going to wash over everything.
This is a fair point especially about Israel.
Sounds like bad news all around.
I'll have to listen myself of course.
The Phase 3 delay news is no shocker.
NWBO investors reacted badly to the initial talk of a Phase 3 expansion earlier this year because we were sure it would cause another delay.
NWBO management hastened to assure us that they were adding only trial sites not patients with the implication that this would be duration neutral or even speed things up.
Then it turns out we were right regardless: it will be an unwanted delay.
No news on HE and none on Direct except of course that they're adding self-imposed steps like an independent review to make release of the data take even longer.
With the exception that we can already manufacture for thousands of patients, right now, there seems little good news that came out of this.
Then they should make more time for questions.
We'd make other longs instantly rich by selling.
The moment we sell, that's when NWBO does an unprecedented mid-day press release of all the Direct data and the fact that they got a halt for efficacy on the Phase 3 trial (all in the same day).
She was bullied by the shorts.
Ms. Power's "undeterred" remark which Turtle quoted referred to releasing updates on DCVax Direct and was made in the midst of the dust up with MD Anderson that was instigated by Adam Feuerstein.
Despite her bold words the flow of Direct data slowed to a trickle and all releases were clearly vetted by MD Anderson.
This information vacuum has given the shorts the ability to fill the empty space with distortions and even lies.
If this only effected the stock price, it would be bad enough.
But it also affects people's willingness to enter the trials and that can cost lives and time to completion and thus widespread availability of treatment.
How many lives were needlessly lost over many years to childbed fever because instead of being embraced by the medical profession Dr. Semmelweis was prevented from promoting and implementing his simple and cheap preventative measures on a large scale?
How many patients died because all they had was a lethally misguided standard of care and were taught by the experts to scorn new methods?
People called Semmelweis a fraud too. Now he is called a hero.
Better promotion of existing news seems most likely.
The market is not anticipating the release of any real news on May 7th.
Otherwise you would see a small run up rather than a 4% or more decline below the $8.00 mark.
Still, if Ms. Powers does a great job of presenting the existing data to new investors, their entry into the stock could do great things for the share price.
Given that the shorts can slither out of any squeeze I wouldn't count on this being enough to cause a short squeeze.
But the involvement of a large number of new longs might create a small run up and help stabilize the price in the high $7.00 to low $8.00 range.
You're probably right, and I don't blame RK, I blame NWBO's management.
The fact that we (and apparently our siblings) are having to scrape the bottom of the barrel for something, anything, to talk about concerning this company speaks for itself.
Any news is appreciated, just kidding with you.
I was excited until I got to the bottom of the report (emphasis mine):
Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc was founded in Unable To Collect Data For The Field ‘Tr.Regstateprovince’ And Some Specific Identifier(S). on Unable to collect data for the field ‘TR.CompanyIncorpDate’ and some specific identifier(s). The firm has undisclosed number of employees. At the moment its market cap is: $546.31 million and it has 67.28 million shares outstanding. Now the company has unknown shareholders and the institutional ownership stands at 0.00%.
Sometimes you make a promise and life gets in the way.
That's often unavoidable and very tough for all concerned.
But running away from your broken word is not the answer.
Staying silent and letting your friends pretend you never gave hinted at, let alone promised anything, is not the answer.
Instead, you look the person you let down in the eye, tell them exactly what went wrong, apologize for it, and then tell them what you're going to do to make it right and when that will happen. Then you go out and move heaven and earth and make what sacrifices you need to follow through.
Slappdaddy, you can increase your credibility here by making good on this offer of your own:
I won't post it now, but I plan on researching every broken data date promise and post it here in the future so that everyone can understand my concerns.
I would like hear a lot more about Israel from NWBO's executives.
It sounds like it could be a real bright spot for the company if it were properly publicized.
Adam Butler wasn't saved by DC Vax Direct?
He would doubtless argue that he was, at least for the time being.
I am sorry for your loss.
For that reason, I am not offended that you questioned my agenda.
My agenda is simple: to make an honest profit commensurate with the risk I am taking.
Honest is the key word.
If I thought this stock was a fraud, I would immediately divest myself of my holdings, apologize to everyone on this board (and over at yahoo) and leave.
I would not turn around and short the stock, or stay around and argue with people on the board.
The only reason I would stop to say anything would be to make some form of reparation for anyone I might have misled by being long.
Thanks!
Direct serves patients on the "doorstep of hospice."
A high mortality rate is to be expected.
But if Direct also saves a lot more patients at that very late stage of cancer than standard of care, then that makes it a highly successful treatment.
I doubt people are dropping out because they've given up on what you call their "crappy existence" since people motivated to enter a highly experimental trial are, by definition, fighters.
Even if they would have otherwise given up, the adverse side effects of Direct are nonexistent so the suffering to reward ratio makes this an obvious choice.
They're going to get injected with drugs if they go into hospice (including, as you said, morphine) so adding an extra injection at wide intervals (with no side effects) to the schedule is not going to reduce their quality of life by much even if it does nothing to help.
Didn't find a planning application for NWBO in Sawston on the Cambridgeshire County Council website.
Then again Wal-Mart was doing some plumbing work at 5 of their stores and didn't file for a local permit either so go figure.
I misunderstood what you were saying.
That's why I was surprised that Ms. Powers would do that.
I wasn't saying that she was, but only that it would be very unwise.
Withholding the drop out data is not the best thing to do either (like I said, just blame AF) but it is excusable as long as we have the numbers we need.
Secret negotiations and surrenders don't generate PR's.
Kennedy did not PR the fact that he had yielded to Khrushchev and removed American missile bases in Turkey to end the Cuban Missile crisis.
We had to wait decades to find that out. It doesn't mean it didn't happen.
I freely admit that Ms. Powers lied about releasing updates "undeterred" when in reality she was very much deterred.
She knuckled under to AF and MD Anderson but didn't want to admit that in public.
First there's the pride in not being seen as submitting to pressure.
Second, a public surrender it would make it look like she was admitting that NWBO's PR's had been unethical.
Does yielding to the demands of AF and MD Anderson sound implausible?
Remember AF was strong enough to silence the Washington Post.
Even Nixon with the full power of the Presidency couldn't manage that.
They kept investigating that second-rate burglary until he went down.
The deal was probably pretty simple:
1. NWBO admits no wrongdoing by releasing information
2. MD Anderson quits feeding AF and criticizing NWBO in public
3. NWBO vets all releases on Direct with MD Anderson first
4. Everybody shuts up about what happened before
The only thing Ms. Powers couldn't control were the NWBO shareholders who were ringing MD Anderson's phone off the hook and trashing them and Dr. Buzdar on social media.
But those attacks would run out of steam on their own since with no new news released by NWBO on Direct, MD Anderson and AF would have nothing to react to.
Since shareholders took Ms. Powers at her word that she would release updates "undeterred" (and that was the last thing they heard from her), they had no reason not to stand down.
Ms. Powers had no valid reason to lie about enrollment.
NWBO shareholders hate AF.
Blaming him would get NWBO shareholders to circle the wagons.
She does not have to call him out by name but make the allusion.
There would be no big sell off, not if the reason is AF rather than the fundamentals of the science.
The involvement of big shots like Woodford would likewise not be affected.
Being a man of business, he is familiar with how FUD works.
But if Ms. Powers has been untruthful about enrollment, including to Woodford who is buying shares directly from NWBO that was risky.
Lying to rich and powerful people like Woodford is dangerous since they can hold grudges and pay one back in a myriad of ways.
Ms. Powers must be very confident of her product if, as you are suggesting, she thinks deceit on an important point now, will be excused by huge profits later on.
MD Anderson has a stranglehold on the data from Direct and Phase 3 of L is blinded.
NWBO is restricted to releasing only what MD Anderson allows until the Phase 1 is over and MD Anderson no longer has any say.
That was the price of making peace with MD Anderson after Mr. Feuerstein cleverly provoked NWBO shareholders into starting a flame war in reaction to unauthorized statements by Dr. Buzdar.
Given the extensive relationships MD Anderson has with Big Pharmaceutical companies which are exploring competing therapies it is not necessarily the case that their interest is aligned with NWBO's and that it behooves them to release the full picture.
That's one reason I wish NWBO would get Phase 2 under way with a more flexible and neutral set of investigators who will let NWBO release information as the company gets it.
Thanks!
As much as I'd like NWBO to grab that market too, after awhile a company has to buckle down and focus and get one big thing done.
Then with some of the profits you can fund almost as many other things as you want.
I want more information too, hence my challenge to Steve.
I cannot directly force the NWBO disgorge it so I did the next best thing.
But as to the other stuff:
Sun Tzu had a holistic view of war, commerce included. He viewed the actual clash of swords as anti-climactic.
War also acts a metaphor in our society that allows institutions to justify anything no matter how dishonest.
I am gaining insight into Ms. Powers' thought processes the only way someone with my lack of access can: by her observed behavior.
The secretiveness and deception are indicative to me of a mild bunker mentality, nothing Nixonian mind you, but still operative.
Then again her behavior could be indicative of someone knowingly perpetrating a massive fraud.
The fact that regulators haven't caught it means almost nothing (see Maddoff and the many lesser scammers nationwide who went down at the same time due to a global financial crisis not good sleuthing).
I choose to believe that so many regulators being actively involved there has to be a there there as far as the science goes.
Hence my theory that NWBO regards itself as on a war footing and is rationalizing its IR and PR practices on that basis whether they explicitly use the language themselves or not.
You pays your money, you takes your chances.
The key thing for you is not to take it personally.
If the NWBO longs are wrong, we'll pay by losing big money.
The question is, not so much whether the means are good, is whether the ends justify the means.
NWBO finds itself at war and in war institutions and governments both basically good or essentially bad, will do things that are dishonest, even evil to win.
The British and Americans in World War II did terrible things to defeat the Axis including the least of which was lying.
Wartime necessity.
The problem is, the Germans, the Japanese and the Soviets (who switched to the Allied side after Hitler betrayed them) did even worse things in their vein attempt to defeat their enemies. Given their twisted worldview, even the genocides of the Nazis went towards the fulfillment of their war aims rather than distracting from them.
Wartime necessity.
The difference?
The British and Americans were defending some form of democracy and cut the crap as soon as the war was won. They even rebuilt their defeated enemies.
The Germans, Japanese and Soviets were defending some form of autocracy and the Soviets, the only objectively evil power to survive, kept up the full measure of their brutality well after the war was won.
So whether NWBO's tactics are enough to push you away, really comes down to what you believe their motivations are.
In any case, thanks for dropping some knowledge on us, especially in response to my question about the potential for an HIV treatment.
That's the kind of forward thinking that got me started in NWBO in the first place.
Regina, leaving forever isn't the answer.
I can't blame you for being upset and if my sharp elbows have contributed to it, I'm sorry.
The environment here has gotten so nasty because NWBO longs and shorts have nothing to feed on but each other.
Why not just take a sabbatical until real news comes out?
You're a long and as you've said, you don't watch the ticker.
Real news won't totally banish incivility but it eliminate major, pardon the pun, catalyst for it.
When you come back things may not be better, but they'll at least be different.
Could this immune system recovery caused by DCVax benefit people with immune deficiencies even when they do not have cancer?
It is probably too much to hope NWBO has something that could help with dread illnesses like HIV but the question is worth asking.
Also, why don't we have more information about what is going on with DCVax L in Israel?
I hardly ever hear that mentioned and if they keep using it then it is likely getting good results.
Apology accepted, RK others have been harsher.
Truthfully though, when a stock analyst who has written several prominent articles on NWBO, shows up on an NWBO message board, and then goes on and on about NWBO with a pungent air of authority, then yes, he is posing as an analyst.
Further, as beachlifeisfun pointed out, patient and confident longs should not perturbed by a short-term price drop that has nothing to do with NWBO's fundamentals.
If anything they should see it as a buying opportunity.
I just enjoyed my day off despite the price drop.
And as beachlifeisfun also pointed out, it is not like Pyrr/Steve will go without rebuttal on SA.
As far as any violation of the rules that is indeed for the moderators to decide.
I sympathize with the moderators because as a librarian, I deal with rules violations and disputes over them all the time (based on a real incident):
Patron: But there wasn't a sign saying we couldn't do that in the bathroom?
Librarian: "No, I'm sorry, but we don't have to put up a sign saying 'Don't exchange personal favors in the public restroom'."
Patron: Why?
Librarian: Because kids can read signs, because of common sense. Take your pick. And yes, even though there's no sign you're still evicted from the library for one a week. You're welcome to come back then."
Ask for whatever you want he's an analyst.
Since he is an analyst that makes my post one about the stock and company.
Remember that what he chooses or does not choose to publish as an analyst certainly impacts NWBO's share price, whether he likes it or not.
Asking him to erase the dichotomy between what he said as an analyst then and what he is saying now in relative privacy is legitimate.
However he responds (even with silence) will give all of you a better ability to weight what he has written before in public and what he may write going forward.
Because he is a public person connected with this stock the challenge I issued was legitimate.
It was not even meant to impugn his character. Remember I've defended Pyrr's right to change his mind and not get crucified for it. I just think it is only fair that if he really feels this way that he make it known.