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Actually, I think they're negotiating with the different German Sickness Funds not so much the locations themselves but yes its similar to what you said.
I was tough on Sctknight too, but only because a real catalyst has been a long time in coming I'm tired of subsisting on hope.
Besides, we all knew Summer 2015 was going to be a march through an arid desert of no news, kind of like Moses had when he gets kicked out of Egypt in the Cecil B. DeMille version of the Ten Commandments.
It just didn't expect to get such a large canteen of water at ASCO before the start of the march and that sure has helped, but even so, on a down day, you get frustrated.
Eventually, though, Moses found a nice oasis, and a like any DeMille movie worth mentioning, a bevy of beautiful women.
We'll get to that oasis eventually. If we don't have some big news by the end of October 2015, then we can start to worry.
And if we go that long with nothing new, then blind hope won't cut it.
This same exact post could have been made any time in the last two years!
That said, I was happy enough with the Direct data release this summer, that snarky comments aside, I'm quite happy with where we are now.
RK, I cannot reply privately so this will sound cryptic:
I appreciate your suggestion but I actually share the same issue and am thus reasonably familiar with it.
Doc has soured on HE which is different.
HE was a nice dream, it really was.
But a lot like DCVax Prostate, it is an idea whose time has come and gone not because it is bad in principle but because of funding constraints.
With DCVax Prostate, NWBO could not afford to pursue it and now there's Direct which works better anyway.
With HE its mostly the Germans, who want to, as often say, price a near-cure for cancer as if it were a powerful treatment for baldness.
Times were different when HE was pursued and it provided a nice alternative to toxic financing and a way to keep retail shareholders tantalized through some tough times.
With Neil Woodford here, toxic financing is a thing of the past and retail shareholders no longer have to be appeased.
I'm sure if the Germans had offered a fair price, Ms. Powers would work with them but she probably knew it was less than 50%/505 that they would be reasonable.
But apparently they're trying to screw us and a bad deal with the Germans would have about the same financial impact as a lopsided 'partnership' with Big Pharma.
Because accepting a low price from Germany now would cram down prices from US insurers later, NWBO would be accepting the chance of revenue now for the guarantee of lower revenue later.
Actually it would be worse since NWBO would take the risk of building out manufacturing withotu guaranteed money, whereas Big Pharma cuts a check right away and offers additional milestone payments as you go along (in exchange for the lion's share of the profits later).
If Ms. Powers won't partner with Big Pharma why would she do it on worse terms with Germany?
Stop shouting and I'll answer your question:
1. Negotiations should have started in March 2014 since that is when approval for both the Hospital Exemption and the reimbursement approval were announced.
That means that negotiations have been dragging on for over a year and I doubt they'll be done before year's end...if ever.
2. Yes, once a price is agreed upon it would be considered material and thus subject to disclosure requirements. If NWBO doesn't follow the law then the Germans probably have public records laws that could force disclosure (perhaps upon request) on their end.
I always wait for the shorts to help me buy at a bargain and I have a feeling I'm not the only one.
The shorts have conditioned me not to get excited when its going up and try to buy before the cheap prices are gone forever because, no matter what (however briefly) the cheap prices will come back.
Rather I will wait after a spike for the shorts to beat NWBO up and then buy, maybe using limit orders.
When you multiply my behavior by hundreds or thousands of other investors that is going to seriously retard the share price.
As institutions participate more and more (or if we got publicity and pulled in some new, non-jaded retail investors) then this factor will diminish.
But for right now, the shorts have burned retail investors so many times that I think this is why few of us really feed the rallies (which makes what has happened in the last few weeks all the more remarkable).
Glad I'm not the only one. Still, the biggest lessons I learned from investing in solid dividend stocks for years have helped me with NWBO:
1. Buy quality over time and hold onto it, even if it goes down.
2. Buy more quality when it gets beat up for no good reason.
3. Own whatever you own outright, so you can ride out the storm: no margin what I'm keenest on avoiding but I've seen way too many people get burned by options too.
While I know many people would consider me nuts for treating NWBO like a Blue Chip as a result I haven't been led astray like those poor suckers who were hung by their own stop loss orders.
And to be clear, I've been wrong about other speculative stocks but when I pulled out, it was based on analysis and done with deliberation and willingness to admit I was wrong and take the tax write off. I would do the same for one of my blue chips if I saw the fundamentals had changed.
But both today and yesterday I saw nothing that concerned the fundamentals but only the short term speculation I pay attention to with my mind and emotions but ignore with my actions (no selling).
To be honest, I wasn't afraid but only because the drop happened without a good reason. There should be a picture of the NWBO logo under "Volatility" on the Investopedia website.
Now if there had been a good reason for drop, then yes, I'd have been very concerned rather merely slightly surprised and somewhat irritated.
Just empty boasting, because if today was a truly momentous day, the share price would gain a lot more than 5%. Now granted a 5% gain would normally be a much bigger deal in its own right, but not in the context of having more than a dollar shaved off the share price in less than a week.
Besides most people are greedy and if they had inside information about an impending catalyst they would be buying shares before everyone else gets wise...not bragging about it on a public message board.
Naked shorting seems like Bigfoot or the Loch Ness Monster.
If it weren't illegal I'd try to get Anonymous to use their methods to investigate naked shorting since short of having inside information from the culprit's servers I don't know how you can really prove it is going on, especially since Failure to Deliver data isn't considered proof.
Oh well, being law abiding stinks sometimes since its like unilaterally disarming while the crooks get by with whatever they want.
Probably the trouble in China started this and then as you said it picked up steam when a larger number of sell orders than normal showed up.
But what do we care?
We're here for the long haul.
Even 9 something used to look like a great price just 6 months ago!
Well, you're doing a great job! And while graphics may seem easy to you, I'm lucky if I can throw something together with inserting shapes in Word.
In any case, I'll try to tag along and figure things out.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who has trouble reading this stuff on a computer screen. Part of it's that I use a computer so much at work, I need a break from it when I'm off.
That's like expecting the fans in Tuscaloosa to be "fair and balanced" about a football game against LSU. This is an NWBO board not a haunt for shorts. I'm sure there has to be a message board for short traders where, if they're discussing NWBO in particular, you would hear the opposite.
Your tea is fine, just a little strong for a layperson with a full time job and as you said, a number of other stocks.
My last formal science class was Human Biology in the early 2000's (a course set up for non-science majors I might add).
I read a lot of science articles (mostly directed at a lay audience) on my own but that will never make me an expert on oncology, let alone on clinical trials.
I'm not going to ignore what you're saying since I have a lot of respect for you but I'm going to stop even pretending to understand it.
The drop is my fault, I was thinking of a buying opportunity.
As holy writ says "Ask and ye shall receive."
Instead of making news with a published article, the NWBO analyst was encouraged to waste his time here arguing with us and trading insults.
That is not productive and that is the chief reason I cannot fully share your sentiments.
I would rather have an NWBO news story to discuss, even one written by an adversary than sterile circular arguing.
Besides, there are other benefits:
If the analyst writes a negative article and it hits the share price it could create another buying opportunity for longs.
If NWBO responds, as I hope it would, it would not only help restore the share price but give us all information help resolve long-standing questions so that the discussion could move on to other issues.
Why are we having to read tea leaves here?
Just ask NWBO about the points that are unclear.
They have an obligation to communicate with their shareholders and that includes responding to clear, legitimate inquiries.
They may give us the answer.
They may tell us they don't know.
They might tell us that SEC or other rules prevent them from answering some or all of our inquiry.
Or they may ignore us. If they ignore us, that's informative too, because, as I said, they have an obligation to communicate with us and they would not breach that obligation unless being forthcoming would put the company in a bad light.
Provided that the only possible reason for a delay in the Interim is that DCVax L is (inadvertently) being penalized for being too efficacious then sure, you're right.
But given the tortured history of this trial, I harbor doubts that this could be the only cause of a delay.
Would you define "soon" in this context as being sometime on or before December 31, 2015?
For my part, I think if we've crossed into 2016 and have not at least heard an interim recommendation on the Phase 3, then we have legitimate cause to be concerned.
It's called being steadfastly in favor of NWBO.
NWBO investors have made up their minds and at this late stage of the game unless some dramatic new information about the science or management comes out, it doesn't make sense to change course and reevaluate their investment.
Being indecisive will lose you more money than being stubborn.
Besides, I thought the fact that NWBO doesn't have a seperate CFO is something that even the most basic due diligence would have uncovered in a couple of minutes.
Why are we discussing this as if it is some dramatic new revelation that should cause us to be concerned?
Now if Ms. Powers were to have recently fired a competent CFO and taken both jobs for herself then you would have an excellent topic of discussion.
But this is not what happened.
What I am trying to figure out is why you invested to begin with, given that this problem would have been something you knew about from day one.
Sure thing! NWBO is fighting mankind's worst enemy in both the Old World and the New World. And like the Brits and Yanks then, we're going to win.
The biggest difference...this time the Germans are on our side!
The reason for the "Keep Calm and Carry On" posters, was to stop Britons from spreading FUD because of their own nervousness about the German threat, their own defeatism, disatisfaction with the current leadership etc.
Very few of the people spreading FUD in the UK during World War II were actual Nazi agents or sympathizers.
They were merely war weary folks, tired of rationing, or perhaps arm-chair strategists who thought they could fight the war better than the War Cabinet and loudly said so despite their lack of access to anything approaching enough information to get a clear picture.
Most of the Britons these FUD spreaders wanted to argue with, had as little information as they did and could not give satisfactory answers to someone determined to view the progress of the war negatively.
Usually, they would try to argue with the FUD spreaders a few times, and making no progress, ignore them, and go back to contributing to the war effort upon which the survival of the UK depended.
In today's context we have a similar situation.
NWBO is at war with Big Pharma and the shorts for its very survival.
In this context spreading FUD is the act of spreading Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt that can impact the behavior of a target population, in this case actual or potential NWBO investors who view this board.
Probably if one raises a concern once, hears the answers and either accepts them or agrees to disagree, no one will accuse one of spreading FUD. One will merely be raising a concern.
But if one persists, without adequate information to make negative comments and ask negative questions and demand that other people also without adequate information, come up with answers, even though they know no more than one does, well then one has crossed the line from raising a concern to spreading FUD.
And then we must say, "Keep Calm and Carry On."
Forget a CFO try a PIO.
In all seriousness, as acatalyst84 of YMB correctly points out, for the last two weeks, the uppermost headline for NWBO on yahoo has been an attack article by Mr. Feuerstein attacking the integrity of the company's CEO and trying to scare current and potential shareholders into thinking the company's management is trying to fleece the shareholders.
Well, most of us predicted that the summer would be quiet though, and while the ASCO releases were a nice surprise we should probably expect this to continue until September 2015.
Bought 55 shares of NWBO at $11.73 and regard it as a good deal.
Thanks to the shorts trying to drive this down on low volume there could be even better deals out there. Probably should have waited thirty more minutes but that's okay.
The big thing to bear in mind is that even a month ago, none of us would have considered $11.73 a share to be a good deal.
That shows us how far we've come.
Yes, that makes sense, it's really good old fashioned outsourcing.
Exactly, and does anyone really think NWBO would still be around as a public company without Ms. Power's involvement?
Back during the financial crisis people weren't exactly beating down the doors to invest in cancer immunotherapy which has only, in the last year, stopped being synonymous with most investors with the conquistador's hopeless quest for El Dorado.
As the company becomes able to stand on its own two feet, Ms. Power's can and will be inclined, probably without needing to be pressured, to start having it behave more like a normal publicly traded company.
But until NWBO is fully out of the woods it doesn't make sense to add another bureaucratic layer.
Exactly my point, if NWBO appoints a CFO then the same shorts will just attack the individual's character and integrity and suggest that the new CFO is complicit in whatever fraud the shorts have in mind.
Now, with time, as more institutions get invested they can and should demand a CFO with the right amount of detachment from Ms. Powers' interests and the with same stake in NWBO's success that any top executive should have.
But until that happens, what's the point? She who pays the piper calls the tune, and right now that's Ms. Powers.
It's called featherbedding.
White collar or blue collar, it's the same schtick.
Naturally, the accounting industry would create a definition of adequate segregation that would demand hiring one of their own for a well paid sinecure.
Years after trains switched to diesel you'd find engines with both an engineer and a fireman as required by union rules "safety reasons" even though no fireman was needed to shovel coal into the engine because there was no more coal.
From what I understand, the railroads were able to end this form of featherbedding by proving with undercover investigations that all too many firemen (who really had nothing to do) spent the trip sleeping or goofing off...not checking on the work of the engineer or doing other safety related activities as the union claimed they were.
No NWBO CFO avoids having too many chiefs and not enough Indians.
When you have a market cap of less than $1 billion, a CFO is a luxury, not a necessity.
It's a waste of money you don't have to go and hire someone to play around with money you don't have.
I like your sentiment and will make sure that if I have good fortune with NWBO, those in need will have a share in it too.
Not to bring religion into but as a Christian I hold a fief from God as do we all. Some of us have actual land, in the old fashioned way, others salaries (big and small) and others investment income. The more productive the holdings we've been granted are, the more we get to offer back to our liege, as it were, by feeding His people.
But being thoughtful about the manner of giving as you are doing TZOR is part of it too and I applaud that just as much as the act of giving itself. You are trying to think not just about throwing money around but how to put your charitable giving to the best use.
You shouldn't let your gas tank become nearly empty before filling because then you have to pay whatever the price is in the area where you run out.
If you buy gas with quite a bit left in the tank then you can shop around for the best price.
Desperation matters which is why governments have "anti-gouging" laws to cap price increases on gas after natural disasters like hurricanes.
Would I rather be rolling in HE money so that NWBO never has to do another offering again?
Sure. Of course, I'd rather not get diluted again and have NWBO pay its own way.
Would I like to have a partnership on DCVax Direct on one indication where Big Pharma magically drops its hostility towards NWBO and the company makes money on a square deal?
Sure. Any partnership (on good terms) with Big Pharma offers instant credibility, more news coverage, more investor interest etc.
But for a variety of reasons HE, EAMS and partnerships have proven to be mirages and will not materialize until we have approval or rejection of DCVax L in the US anyway.
So this is the world we live in.
Until the company start booking profits NWBO has to dilute or go to zero.
Those are the options, andsince have to do a secondary offering at some point, let's at least do it as we have the last couple of times: from a position of strength and with someone who believes in the promise of NWBO.
Hopefully EAMS works out better on reimbursement than HE has.
Correct me if I'm wrong but at least the UK is single-player right?
If so, then that means NWBO would only have to negotiate with one entity and that should (in theory) be faster and more efficient.
While single-payer systems do drive down prices, at least NWBO should get some benefit in this respect...again in theory.
Good point. I should be an interesting week.
What kind of regulatory advancements are we talking about?
I don't mind shorts being skeptical of NWBO, I mind them lying.
I also mind them badmouthing the company based on a stereotype of emerging biotechs instead of looking at the specific facts surrounding NWBO.
Sure I can walk into any new restaurant and say "You won't be in business in 5 years!" and guess what? The odds are in my favor because most new small businesses fail and usually pretty quickly.
But that would be wrong especially, if by publishing that opinion, I'm swaying potential investors and thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It suppose that depends on how big Woodford's tobacco position is compared to the rest of his portfolio. But yes, take away the consequences of getting cancer and tobacco isn't so bad anymore or at least no worse than other addictive substances like caffeinated soda. While many condemned tobacco (especially churchmen) before the risks were known, others in the 17th century regarded it as almost a miracle drug.
What price level do we need to reach before the shorts (or at least the retail shorts) start getting margin calls?
It's a sin to feel vengeful but given how many patients these shorts and their misinformation tricked into missing out on DCVax, not to mention how many NWBO stockholders who bought on margin got called or those who bought options to see them expire worthless, it is hard to help it.
More to the point, if the shorts get a bloody nose, hopefully the name of this stock will bring up such bad memories that they'll never darken NWBO's door again.
So will we all, but that only matters depending upon how you define "enough of a profit".
I'd don't see him exiting this stock in the teens or the twenties.
I believe that like Ms. Powers, our British friend has an eye for the main chance. By the time he exits his position, NWBO will be able to stand on its own two feet and be able to raise capital on good terms, if of course it needs to do any capital raises at all by that point.
Still, if you have a different number, please feel free to share.
Price action is one of the few indications we have of what is going on beneath the surface with NWBO. Its kind of like trying to read a the tape from seismograph to understand activity in the Earth's mantle.
I have not sold a single share of NWBO and don't plan on it until we get to a much higher level than a stinking $11.00.
But until NWBO starts meeting milestones or revealing more information, price movements are one of the few ways to tell what is going on.
Share price is a flawed metric but its one of the few things we've got.
Heck, people can't even agree around here about what exactly is being used in the DCVax L trial.
Don't blame me for talking about share price, blame the lack of transparency and lack of communication by the company.