Washington Mutual Mortgage Reinsurance, Inc. - stock holders won in this major bankruptcy case.
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That's what I see; no seller - WMI, a confused broker; FDIC, and a super greedy buyer; JPM, all greased by a confused Treasury Secretary; Paulson.
Cool, and thanks!
What I am seeing is that once the powers at work are able to isolate some bad guys doing bad things without a doubt, e.g. Ken Lewis concealing important info from share holders, the blame, sometimes called the paint, will be on the banking execs.
Next, paint Hank Paulson, who is gone and from the Bush Admin, and then expand the investigation to net other secret conversations and the case for WMI is bolsters without directly implicating JPM, the gov's bank.
The fine art....
the rest of the dominos will fall more easily without the blame landing solely on the FDIC. For example, bank leaders compromised share holder trust, then ex Treasury guy under Bush; Paulson lied and leaked and cheated, and then banks were lost in a bind and the the outcome is a morass that really happened due to Paulson's panicky procedures and the missteps of the "free market" leadership such as Ken Lewis. He had a chance to protect himself but was victimized by the confusion.
Sheila Bair is supposed to be like a public servant and the FDIC is the last bastion of "security" in the banking system. So, it doesn't really help to damage the FDIC in the public forum and the rely on the FDIC to insure the banks we are trying to reestablish. The paint needs to be on the past Treasury and some of the top bank execs who can go away anyway.
All my speculative opinion.
My wild speculation is that during the Geitner hearing on Tuesday something, a nod, a small comment, a quiet answer to some reporter's question in the halls of Congress indicated that the WAMU thing is going to be cleared up in favor of WMI soon. This is complete speculation but since Geitner was out in public he may, or one of his aides, may have indicated something to someone in the halls.
My wild speculation is that during the Geitner hearing on Tuesday something, a nod, a small comment, a quiet answer to some reporter's question in the halls of Congress indicated that the WAMU thing is going to be cleared up in favor of WMI soon. This is complete speculation but since Geitner was out in public he may, or one of his aides, may have indicated something to someone in the halls.
The question,"Any chance..." must be answered with a "yes" because you use the word, "any", and of course there is some chance.
Try rethinking your question so you can extract more valuable information from the world around you, my friend.
Sizable buys are going through above Ask and then several small trades at lower bid is going through. I think it accumulation and flipping. I'm not so sure about exactly how this is done in real time by MMs. This is part of the mystery of the stock market for me.
Level II shows the MMs are keeping it down by buying small chunks at the lower bid. It's being held down, imho.
Based on the big news about Ken Lewis and BOFA and Paulson today, we are much closer to getting what we want here. Paulson is clearly being routed out as are other banking tyrants.
This is setting the stage for a settlement, imho.
Thanks for posting all that today BigWill.
My education continues. I am collecting this bits and pieces and circulating them.
Dude!
There is no doubt that the 500 billion is being put up for just this type of problem; boondoggles by the banking system, i.e. FDIC / JPM and OTS.
That money will positively effect the whole picture, at least temporarily, and make it much easier for all parties to settle. The judge is suppose to follow the law and many people on this board think she will rule in favor of WMI and thus FDIC and JPM will have to have the money to pay up. If they don't the law suit will go on and and on and that will cost too much for the Obama Admin to back that. Dragging this on will create more uncertainty that we don't need. After all, all bankers want to know if their holding company property can be stolen by OTS/ FDIC / and some large bank.
The main stream news is so full of b.s. so don't put too much stock in the headlines.
That's what I was thinking: a reorg plan can simply state the facts as WMI sees them and plan with those facts.
good reminder.
Due to the businesses I am in, I am seeing an renewed interest in moving large sums out of Euros and into USDs, FYI.
Brilliant comment, along with lots of good ones tonight.
I think was WaS says is correct.
The reason people make mistakes is usually because they don't have all the facts. That is what you are here for!
I try to stick to the issues that I feel I know something about.
If you know something please present it in a way that is understandable, verifiable, and logical - less emotion and more facts, as you have done here in your last post. Thanks!
I needed that, though I am not blaming specific people or laws, I am attempting to hold those responsible for this mess to a higher standard... oh, wait, that's us.
So, let's just accurately describe our own knowledge and experience and publish it where it can be read and used by thoughtful citizens.
The lawsuit by WMI against the FDIC does not prevent or assure reorganization.
WMI is in BK. They will submit a plan and the court will look at it and other factors presented by the creditors and then rule. The BK court is supposed to specify the path to resolution for both the debtor and creditors according to BK law in the law book.
The complexity and considerations in this BK case include the lawsuit for damages filed by WMI against the FDIC because there is income potential there and there are costs incurred in legal fees. The outcome of that case has a bearing on the BK case.
This is where I stop my analysis. I'm no lawyer.
Grey,
Very nice find.
"Counsel to JPMorgan Chase in its acquisition of all deposits, assets and certain liabilities of Washington Mutual’s banking operations from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), as well as the related stock offering.'"
The operative word here is "the". They are saying, without a doubt, that there is an offering.
Nicky11,
You are going to be fine in 09!
I should have added that!
lol
Since it is Saturday and I feel philosophical I will venture this:
People in the banking and political system are as hard headed as people get, imho. The rational for a good fight seems so logical to the managers of large funds. After all, it is us or them.
Thoreau said that man's mind's ability to rationalize is unlimited.
This is the stage upon which Sheila Bair, Jamie Dimon, Judge Walrath and WMI stands now. Will they rationalize a fight as good and necessary or find a peaceful resolution that uses less resources and heals differences quickly? If they can't see a path to resolution I recommend a good fight!
Approve the Plan! Shake and make up. Close the book on this and let history be written; they compromised, apologized and moved on! You can do it. Approve the plan. You can do it.
We have better things to do than fight, like figure out the proper regulatory system to avoid the mistakes WAMU made, and the even worse mistake the FDIC made when they undervalued the assets.
Was the greater good served when they decided to prop up JPM with WAMU? Maybe, but that time is over now, TARP is there, and JPM should make a self respecting deal with all involved while they still can.
Look, know one knows what might have happened. Letting Lehman go was a mistake, they say. I think letting JPM go might have been a mistake too, but letting WAMU go for a dime on the dollar was definitely a mistake. IMHO.
JPM can't win unless they recognize the value in what they have. What goes around comes around and this war is not over unless JPM wants it over.
Approve the Plan.
My best advice for long term value assessment is to under promise and over deliver to yourself!
A modest valuation for WAMUQ for the next month is .50 a share.
A modest valuation for WAMUQ for next 3 months is 8.00 a share.
It goes up from there; stock swap is calculated based on current price of JPM shares and maybe a 3 to one swap, e.g. $35 divided by 3 is about $11. See? No one can say with surety.
But, if you want the up close and personal legal maneuvering that will result in the "final" valuation, which if you are long is only realized upon you selling, I refer you to posts by Mordicai: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profile.asp?user=66584 and
Bopfan on Yahoo board.
imho
As an observer, with limited access, it is naturally annoying to be waiting for the players and their filings.
We get to see the bills from the lawyers more than a month after the fact. It's clear that they are working and making progress but, as you say, it is going to be ugly if something of a settlement doesn't come down soon.
I wrote an irate email with resource links to Senator Maria Cantwell's office yesterday, after calling and getting a specific email address of an office assistant. He said he would be sure to get it to the "right" people. I prefer he give it to the "left" people, (lol), frankly, but either way, I think Senator Cantwell will get my message: address the issue in the public forum, be a leader, don't let this huge story undermine your pact to lead and represent your constituents' interests!
If judge Walrath grants this relief it opens the door to
WMI exploring and receiving or selling, again, what other things JPM may have some control over now. imho
Here's an overview of FDIC activity in 2008 posted by Tyson on the another board:
http://www.dic.go.jp/new/2009/2009.3.11a2.pdf
Here's something for the weekend warriors coming to this board this weekend:
http://wamuexposed.org/wamufindings.html
I think JPM will go up dramatically if the media can couch this settlement in rosy terms. I feel like the powers that be are orchestrating a smooth settlement for the best results in stock prices and overall consumer sentiment.
Look, shorts are covering in all sectors, banks are clearly on a rise and with a just a few large hurdles ahead there is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if the books don't really balance because of derivatives.
Best outcome is to settle up soon and get the bounce coming from PR that highlights the long term benefits to JPM going forward.
imho
I wouldn't be surprised to see news about this case with the FDIC tonight. Something must give before next Friday, the reorganization filing date set. It's a line in the sand and yes, it could change, but there are signs that there is a deal in the works of course and so I expect some news ahead of next Friday.
That news could come any time now.
Decent volume for a Friday with no news.
Cool, very cool. I hadn't thought about a sell restriction time period if converted. Thanks for the insights.
WAMUQ
I find it particularly satisfying to see Mr. Dimon hand President Obama a blank check, and the President refusing it for now.
JPM Chase is running TV commercials in Seattle and all over the Northwest similar to the old WAMU ads. They must have realized that we don't like Chase around here.
They are offering free checking at WAMU just like the old days.
They put their trademark and copyright on the ads but they are mimicking the success of WAMU free checking ad campaign from years past.
I can say rather confidently that these new ads are evidence of a coming settlement with the WMI which will pay more for the merger/seizure and sale/ take over / robbery that OTS, FDIC and Hank Paulson arranged with Jamie Dimon and Sheila Bair last September.
Yep, this stock will see better days ahead!
Go WAMUUUU
Nice run going on here!
They are still sending mixed messages about the WAMU merger process. Over all it is a good thing and they are financially better off now. However, they will have to show losses due to adjustments made from court actions in the next quarter. They have insurance for these legal problems and I'm no pro but I think they will remain strong and also be able to pay more for WAMU. In the meantime, I heard both messages: losses will be higher and it is a problem for us and it really helped us grow our bottom line.
What is most unfortunate is that they are not being completely honest about the costs to the total economy and the total banking system, but are still very focused on only what is good for JPM. Bad leadership in these times.
I look for leadership that steps out of the the circle of self concern and addresses the "larger sense of we" that is required to pull the whole system up and back toward a sustainable growth pattern with less consolidation and more prosperity.
People in leadership positions that slight government intervention like Dimon did today are part of the problem. People who have the knowledge, insight, and position to provide leadership above and beyond the call of duty are required to stand up and stand out now. I didn't see or hear that on this call.
Mega banks are not the answer!
I have done food store operations, ranching, logging, professional fishing, truck driving, remodel contracting, residential mortgages, commercial mortgages and hard money loans, and most recently bullion and currency trades.
Common problems to all industries is the denial of the objective market facts: logging; trees are going, fishing; fish are going, carpentry; competition is fierce and customers can be difficult, lending; borrowers are under educated about the borrowing and lending process, international commodities trading; few if any guidelines and many different business styles.
Ultimately, U.S. banks and U.S. government, like it or not, are most responsible for setting the example for reliable, sustainable, and honest business. That is where JPM and the FDIC have let us down.
Who else should I take my complaint to? This mess is a perfect venue for my participation. I may even make some money at it! Probably will! Go WAMUUUUU
imho
It's cool. Thanks. I wish I could lighten up about this but it's hard. That article just reminded me how messed up the banking system is. Years of a "free for all" mentality among banks and banking related corps has really put the average Joe at a disadvantage.
Mentioning WMB transition may not be avoidable since it is such a big deal to their retail activity. How they are going to couch that mention; a positive or a pain and a cost, will be telling. If they are real positive about it I would think they are about settled, if it is still a drag, then tough negotiations are still underway. imho