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The problem is, they keep changing the risk/reward ratio with each dilution. It is like being Lando Calrissian dealing with Darth Vader in Star Wars.
"We had a deal!"
"I've altered the deal! Pray I don't alter it further."
Unlikely. If Ms. Powers bought NWBO at current prices (or anything resembling current prices) via Cognate and then turned around and made a huge profit on DCVax, she would not just be facing civil suits but probably criminal charges as well. So for that reason I would say that a Cognate purchase of NWBO is highly unlikely.
I had a dollar for every time people on here speculated about an NWBO short squeeze I would be able to buy a lot more shares of NWBO.
Thanks! I stayed away in hopes things would improve but really they are just the same old arguments swirling around a much lower price point. If anything I thought that if NWBO hadn't proved out it would at least be out of business and we would know one way or another. I think that if September 2016 comes and goes without some meaningful positive PR from NWBO itself or no clear timetable on when we can expect one, then that tells us what we need to know.
RK you laid it out pretty well and I'll give them until the end of September 2016 to announce something before I complain more.
All the solid, clear, and up-to-date information is negative which is not the case when I started investing more than two years ago. If there had been solid, clear, and up-to-date positive information I would have cited it. Little or any of what you raised meets that criteria and after years of watching this company's officers and their apologists "hint and switch" I think anyone who settles for positive noises like talk of conceptual agreements with unnamed parties is not investing but gambling. I was willing to gamble on points like Dr. Prinns remarks truly indicating that there will be partnerships. But then I remember that the good doctor does not work for NWBO and that even if these partnerships are with NWBO and not UCLA we have no idea whether they will be favorable or not in terms of revenue, long-term earnings from the products etc. So I had excluded the talk of partnerships because it was by no means current, solid, and clear.
I would call this a wager rather than an investment at this point.
We have far less up-to-date information to work with now than when I first invested in this stock.
"Investing" without due diligence (impossible with so little current and solid information) is gambling or speculation.
Speaking of information: all of the solid and quite current information we do have - like NWBO's abysmal financials and recent history of horrific dilution not to mention the market's assessment of NWBO as reflected in our ability to carve out new all-time lows, are all negative indicators.
Like almost every other shareholder here, I have lost so much and held on so long hoping that NWBO would finally release some news, any news to turn things around, that it is way too late to for me to salvage much except by holding on to my shares for dear life.
I did throw another grand on NWBO a few days ago but I am not going to pretend that with all of these unknowns (most of which would be known but for the company's unnecessary failure to communicate) that this purchase was anything other than a wager like I could make at Jai-Alai. - It was certainly not investing.
Can you show me a legitimate news story or an NWBO PR that BP companies are truly "falling all over themselves" (as you put it)?
Because if you can't I can show you the Share Price and Daily Volume for NWBO and if there were such strong interest by multiple major firms (who unlike NWBO do have legitimate analysts and journalists covering them) then surely what you're describing would have made into print especially since people have been making similar claims about BP interest in NWBO for months if not years
Ramshackle would be one word to sum up DCVax Phase 3.
NWBO has used more bubblegum and duct tape on this thing to keep it going than the Soviets and Russians used on the Mir Space Station.
But like the Mir, I am afraid that this project cannot be kept in orbit forever.
It is now perfectly obvious that the screening halt by FDA was not a good thing for NWBO shareholders.
If we slip our September deadline to finish the trial that will be the icing on Miss Havisham's Wedding Cake.
So while I think with Buzdargate you hurt shareholders a lot by giving NWBO management and its apologists an excuse for not communicating with us at all, you were probably right about NWBO's prospects.
This Phase 3 trial seems to prove your rule that companies below a certain market cap almost invariably fail Phase 3 Trials.
Now why that is could still be open to debate.
Maybe the science behind DCVax is fundamentally flawed and the its low market cap and inability to attract enough capital to build a cash runway is a symptom of that.
Maybe DCVax has some potential but NWBO's chronic penury and negative press make it impossible for the company to design and sustain a Phase 3 trial that will pass muster with the FDA. If so then you and people like you can and do create a self-fulfilling prophecy by making it harder for them to generate investor interest.
In any case, And I know other people thought this before, this uncertainty cannot last much longer.
50% is not just a haircut it is a scalping. Too bad we've had 90% plus, which is almost a decapitation.
Looking forward is a strong term in my case. I'd say that I am hoping that against all odds history does not repeat itself with NWBO. No one has been able to show anything solid to suggest a good outcome but we can hope.
Charts are meaningless for NWBO since unpredictable events have an outsized impact on the share price for almost any time frame you care to look at. So anyone calling a bottom here had better being doing it on a more solid basis than a chart.
It sounds encouraging but they could define activity of almost any sort as meeting that definition. At this point they get no credit for generalities. Only hard specifics will suffice.
When people tell you Wall Street can regulate itself, remember this experience. Getting jerked around and misled by the officers of a "public" company for two years with total impunity for themselves should tell you all you need to know.
It is not a 42 cent stock to those who bought at vastly inflated prices and are starving for any scrap of speculation that suggests that we might have a complete turn around. Right now the speculation is that we will finally have real and positive news simply because Ms. Powers is speaking at a conference at the end of September 2016. Hence all the chatter.
A better question would be why we're having to speculate when NWBO can and should provide a lot more granularity about these matters.
What I remember about Stand Up 2 Cancer is that NWBO was not mentioned by name even when other firms were so that feature was a lost opportunity to get attention and thereby improve chances of legitimate financing and ratchet up political pressure on FDA to get things moving.
I'd like to see that but we've all learned the hard way from numerous dashed expectations for big news that odds are against that being the case.
Key question: Will they at least do a webcast, complete with Q&A. If we only get PowerPoint slides expect a rehash.
All this activity is due to speculation that somehow news will be released by the end of September 2016. But actually you're right there's no reason to be here until something solid breaks.
I hope you're right but at present her strategy seems akin to destroying the village to save it.
If so, Ms Powers needs to think less like a lawyer and more like a CEO. Allowing a 90% drop in your share price and multiple dilutions at that level just in the hopes of being able to sue later is just irresponsible and would be a clear case of letting the biases of her training distort her thinking. I hope you are wrong about this.
We both agree that NWBO is doing something wrong by keeping shareholders in the dark but we seem to differ on whether to regard it as a minor matter or a serious issue. Given that we as shareholders have lost 90% of our investment largely because this company has failed to communicate with its own shareholders (let alone the world) I would say my indignation is just plain righteous.
Everyone here takes responsibility for their investment but we're not corporate officers who took responsibility for other people's money.
So sure we each have some responsibility for enabling them but proportionally, NWBO management owns a lot more of that 90% plus drop.
You can try to shift the responsibility for informing investors away from company management to each of us but I do not believe most of us here will buy into that as easily as we bought into NWBO.
Maybe things will work out for long term investors of regular shares like me but for this who bought on margin, bought options or anything else, maybe they deserve it but some of them have been needlessly hurt because they were given a false sense of immediacy and confidence. I was there and saw it done not just by people on this board but buy Ms. Powers herself. Did anyone ever actually ask her at the next conference by the way?
Asking Les Goldman or IR to give inside information is inappropriate and if all he does is use smiles and innuendo to spruce up publicly available information I am only going to fool myself as others who have reported back from talks with him, into thinking that they are really about to turn the corner.
Even if I got them to give me the keys to kingdom that would not change the fact that forcing shareholders to call them up one by one to receive a meaningful update is not the right way to do business.
Given that I am done investing and given that I have little left to lose even if this goes to zero, I'd be willing to sign a contingent non-disclosure to get the whole story even though I could not buy or sell until after the information I saw was made public. Somehow I don't think they're willing to extend that opportunity to me.
Long term thinking demands setting and reporting back on short term and intermediate goals. Expecting that that a publicly traded company keep its owners meaningfully informed more often than once a year or once every six months is not unreasonable.
So far this document shows why NWBO need not fear lawsuits when it comes to legitimately communicating with shareholders.
Yep, we're all really feeling that benefit!
Things cannot get get much worse so Ms. Powers should share what she has. With our price at less than two quarters a share there is little headspace for attacks to have an impact since only existing longs are buying and manipulator a kept right on manipulating despite NWBO's failure to keep their own shareholders informed.
Since there is no downside, what is the upside?
The upside would be to reinvigorate retail longs who will be willing to buy at these prices once they are given REAL information even if it is only Direct. The effects of that are difficult to predict but at this price level you'd get an outsized benefit and maybe trigger those warrants which would raise more money..
But regardless it would be better than doing nothing.
All of this assumes there is good news to share.
Dr. Prins works for UCLA and not NWBO and so when he says "we" he would mean UCLA, not NWBO. If I am wrong then show me where I'm wrong.
Sometimes you have to go with what you have and Direct is what you have.
Now, if Direct has not been producing positive data that is a problem and I could see NWBO wanting to stay quiet about it, in the hope they can kite this long enough for Phase 3 to make Direct irrelevant.
But if Direct is good stuff now, like it was doing before the I'm sorry but even though it is not as good as having top-line results for Phase 3, a partnership with money up front or something like, you have to go with what you have.
When your price is carving out all-time lows on a daily basis it is time to update your shareholders with what you have. Even if the rest of the world ignores it, you are helping your stalwarts to hold on and even buy more and if you have the goods then that is in their financial interest as your shareholders, an interest, an executive should be protecting
What should bother you is the lack of a discernable progress and a plan going forward.
1. When are we going to be told about Direct Phase 1 an Open Label trial? The last update was many months ago and even it was a rehash.
2. When are we going to get a clear read on the status of DCVax Phase 3? I'm talking about results mind you because that stuff is blinded. But what about if it is still truly projected to end in the next two months? What about when and if that enrollment halt will lifted, let alone why it was imposed in the first place?
3. What has been NWBO's plan of action and can they share it with you know the owners of the company? Sometimes we get vague hints, at the beginning of 2016, Les Goldman promised a busy 1st quarter in exchange for the latest toxic dilution which had everyone upset. Maybe he was talking about NWBO busily carving out new all-time lows because that is the only thing NWBO seems to have accomplished since fall of last year let alone in the first quarter.
These 3 questions are legitimate and NWBO can and should stand and deliver.
If we knew for sure or even had a strong basis for believing that something truly positive and game changing was going to happen in mid-September, none of us would be distressed and we'd be loading the boat and that would offset any dilution when the promised day comes.
Unfortunately those of us like myself who have been invested in this stock a long time have been here before. Even when it looked like NWBO had finally turned the corner last year, management contrived to stall the trial, push away the man who had put an end to toxic financing, and demonstrate no discernable progress on any front for a year. We are now at an all time low for this stock.
So why is this new fuzzy deadline for news different than all the others? Why should we believe this time?
"Conceputal agreements" and nothing more? That's what I thought. The way some people have been talking, it is as if NWBO had publicly named a partner and had a real partnership. As I've said, if something like that truly happened I have trouble understanding how that could not be a material event that would have to be shared.
If NWBO confirmed the partnership it is not on the NWBO website that I can see. Which NWBO executive said this was happening?
Has NWBO announced this partnership and if not, why not?
Sadly, based upon painful experience the odds are very much in favor of you're being right.
I would not be surprised if at least some NWBO investors end up becoming shorts after this experience. If you think about it, win or lose in the end, we've all been taken to school on how to successfully short a stock.
At least some of us are going to want to make up for lots of losses if things go south.
If things go well, most of us will be too content with our winnings to risk losing them by shorting the wrong stock. That said even an enormous NWBO success should not, mathematically deter us from shorting:
1.Bear in mind that many small shorts could have exited their positions at any time and made money by following the big players. Any small time short could have and still could, exit at any time with enormous profits and without triggering a short squeeze.
2. Most speculative biotech firms fail just like most family restaurants and by the harsh laws of economics you get creative destruction.
"Second hand" information is notoriously unreliable though your offer to communicate does increase your credibility to my mind. I might have to take you up on it but for now, I am inclined to think that you believe what you are saying is true.
Obviously, I have a large financial interest in your being right!
Calling it a "margin call" instead of "short squeeze" was clever since NWBO investors like me have heard folks cry wolf about an imminent "short squeeze" so often we just laugh at anyone who makes that claim.
We all invested because of that Phase 3 trial and it was already delayed by a year once. Given the impact of this screening halt and NWBO's refusal to update us on that or whether it is affecting the end date for the Phase 3 trial, there is no way to know what will happen in 2016 or 2017.
Given that situation I do not know how you can keep crowing about a combination trial that we do not even have any official evidence exists.
I bought several thousand more shares at less than 45 cents a share and I am now taking a loss on those. Hopefully you're right and we have this specific news you're talking about very soon. But somehow I think we're just hearing more empty boasting.