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This picture tells alot of the story: What the heck is with the swiss franc... Not even in the euro.
http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDCHF
Shorts in the dollar could still unwind but oh what a mess if the UUP drops below 20, Then the hedges work but will have destroyed a strong long position.
http://www.united-icap.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=t7AQNeJw3nQ%3D&tabid=136&mid=660
Dont know how things have turned towards the ugly for the UUP, most people were talking euro weakness at the beginning of the week and now the tune has changed, trying to trap dollar longs is an ugly business.
Currency trading is turning out kinda dirtbaggy, might have to exit this trade.
Pattern break in the UUP, dont know where its going to find footing, trouble trouble trouble
CBST chart is looking good.
Ferrari opens in INDIA, can you say large market ?
http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Ferrari-officially-debuts-in-India/5164309073
U.S. stock futures flat ahead of GDP
7:32 AM ET 5/26/11 | Marketwatch
Real time quote.
MADRID (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of data on jobless claims and first-quarter economic growth.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJM11) rose 24 points to 12,375, while those on the S&P 500 index (SPM11) added 2.60 points to 1,319.60.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 index (NDM11) were virtually unchanged at 2,309.
TELL CHINA TO STOP PROPPING UP THE EURO CORRECTION NEEDED, AND NEEDED NOW NOW NOW, he he. Irish Debt margin hikes ? really.. Oh boy. This best not continue for long.
The euro gained against the dollar Thursday, after a media report that China and other Asian investors are interested in buying Portuguese bail-out bonds.
The euro (EURUSD) rose to $1.4158 from $1.4098 in late North American trading Wednesday. See real-time currency quotes and tools.
The dollar index (DXY), which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to 75.601 from 75.847 late Wednesday.
The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) rose to $1.0588, from $1.0545 late Wednesday, and the New Zealand dollar was up 1.2% at $0.8060.
The euro was already on the upswing against the dollar Wednesday, paring earlier session losses, after a clearing house raised its margin requirement on Irish debt. Read more on Irish debt margin hike.
U.S. stock futures flat ahead of GDP
7:32 AM ET 5/26/11 | Marketwatch
Real time quote.
MADRID (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of data on jobless claims and first-quarter economic growth.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJM11) rose 24 points to 12,375, while those on the S&P 500 index (SPM11) added 2.60 points to 1,319.60.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 index (NDM11) were virtually unchanged at 2,309.
Why Bernanke will be forced to institute QE3
>>>>>>>>>>COUNTERPOINT TO THIS ARTICLE
By Jeff Harding
May 25, 2011 00:54:21 (ET)
SANTA BARBARA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Dr. Frank Shostak, an
Austrian theory economist<<<<<<< WARNING WARNING, haha who works
for MF Global, and who writes for Mises.org on economics, came out
with an article this week on what will happen when the Fed
freezes its balance sheet in June, as they have said they will do.
I very much enjoy Shostak's writing and have followed his ideas
for years.
In this article he says:
"We suggest that once Fed policy makers freeze the balance sheet
of the US central bank it will slow down the growth momentum of
the Fed's balance sheet. Consequently, this is going to exert
downward pressure on the growth momentum of the money supply. Note
that ultimately it is fluctuations in the growth momentum of the
money supply that set in motion fluctuations in the pace of
formations of bubble activities. As a result, various bubble
activities that emerged on the back of the rising growth momentum
of the money supply will come under pressure -- an economic bust
will be set into motion.<<<<<<<<One can perceive that Bubbles in
Oil, Gold & Silver, Housing and Land Development Prices, FOOD
Inflation, may just need to burst for the health of the economy.
Lower prices at the pump, value of the dollar higher to allow more
purchassing power and less bleeding of interest on deficit monies
being more and more with a dollar devaluation.
"Obviously it is possible to have a situation where commercial
banks' expansion of lending "out of thin air" counters the
freezing of the Fed's balance sheet. It remains to be seen whether
this is going to be the case in the months ahead. For the time
being, the Fed's balance sheet continues to expand at a rapid pace. ...
>>>>> THIS IS TOTALLY FALSE, the FED has just announced a
payback from AIG and GM and is in the process of reigning in its
balance sheet !!!!! that statement couldnt be more false. Here
is what is on the FEDS balance sheet as of a little while ago.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/07/fed-balance-sheet-expansion-some-takeaways/
"Now, we suspect that the difficulty the Fed has had in
meaningfully "reviving" the economy so far could indicate that the
state of the pool of real savings or the pool of real funding is
in trouble. This means that even if the growth momentum of lending
does currently show some strengthening ... it is highly unlikely
that, with the weakening of bubble activities on account of the
Fed's freezing its balance sheet, commercial banks will pursue
an aggressive expansion of credit out of thin air. Also, it
is quite likely that with the freezing of the balance sheet,
Treasuries will come under pressure, and the growth
momentum of banks' holdings of Treasuries will weaken. This in
turn will exert downward pressure on the growth momentum of total
bank lending, which includes lending to the government. ...
>>>>>>Whilest the FED has shrunken its balance sheet as of late
there has never been lower interest rates on treasuries and
higher participiation so the prediction of treasuries coming
under pressure is possible and it may even raise the returns on
treasuries from record lows. A GOOD THING...<<<<<<<<<<<
He predicts that CPI growth will reach 5% by year-end.
>>>>>>>>>Sounds relatively TAME to me
"We suggest that once Fed policy makers freeze the balance sheet
of the US central bank, the growth momentum of the money supply
will slow down.
As a result various bubble activities that emerged on the back of
the rising growth momentum of the money supply will come under
pressure. A visible strengthening in the growth momentum of the
CPI may prevent Fed officials from introducing QE3 as suggested
by some experts.
>>>>>>THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO is that as has been stated
Quantitative Easing is effectively over so as not to raise
inflation any higher and to allow for strengthening of the DOllAR
and Interest rates on savings in the banks, and to heal the banks.
It makes sense that when the growth momentum of quantitative
easing stops, that this will eventually affect the markets,
usually six to nine months later.
>>>>> Financial system strengthening during the process of a
slight negative affectation on the markets will be necessary to
recover from too much false fed support of the markets leading to
a false economy and rising inflation for the consumer.
Shostak sees that this will put downward pressure on credit
expansion by banks and thus the money supply will shrink. I think
that is correct as well. We have seen some growth in lending
activity recently and, as I have written lately on this, it is
likely that this will stagnate.
>>>>>>RUBBISH the interest rates will remain low and excessively
low for some time, a new definition of extended period of low
interest rates will be defined by January of 2012 to put a
deadline on the "laissez faire" attitude towards interest rates
and lending....
But there are two factors which lead me to believe that it is more
likely that we will see more quantitative easing.
While Shostak concludes that the Fed is wary of price inflation
(that they are causing) and that this will deter another round of
money pumping, I think the primary motivation behind QE is
unemployment, not price inflation.
The consequence of taking their foot off the money pedal will lead
to higher unemployment and I do not think this is politically
acceptable to the Fed or to the Administration.
>>>>> This is basically farting out of the mouth, there is no
indication that removing QE is going to cause an increase in
unemployment, in fact with a healthier financial and monetary
system confidence may be returned more and less unemployment may
be a result
I think they will institute a new round of quantitative easing
(QE3) because politicians will demand that the Fed "do something."
Which is, of course, the worst thing they could do. It will lead
to more "bubble" activities and higher price inflation. See Will
Fed Insist on Trying to Ignite Unhelpful Wealth Effect?
>>>>> MORE RUBBISH <<<<<<<<
I believe the Fed and the Administration will be willing to
tolerate a higher level of price inflation and for a much longer
period of time, despite the inflation hawks' warnings. I think
this new money stimulus will occur no later than during the start
of the presidential election period (January, 2012), and will
continue until the winner is sworn in. I think Dr. Bernanke will
be fired thereafter.
>>>>>Unless Bernanke wants to be fired which is possible, I
believe he will come out smelling like roses if he removes QE,
bolsters the financial system by first allowing for some inflation
which is occuring as we speak, allowing for dollar inflation, and
then announcing the raising of the interest rates to provide
impetus for lending to occur more rapidly before rates go up.
There are other more advanced measures that he is taking to
bolster the financial system, banking system, monetary system as
well and with some faith those should go well as well.
This would also cast a different light on Treasurys. If I am
correct, then the Treasury market would, post-QE3 remain as it is
today. It is likely though, that between June and when the new QE
round occurs, the freezing of their balance sheet will take some
pressure off the Treasury market as Shostak suggests.
If pressure off the Treasury market means higher rates of
return that good enough !!!!!
Assume that I am incorrect, and the Fed doesn't embark on a new
round of QE. Where will money go? I believe there is sufficient
demand from institutional and foreign sovereign buyers to keep
the market up and keep yields low, despite growing price
inflation.
It is likely that eurozone problems will continue for quite some
time in the future -- at least two more years if I were to guess -
>>>Agreement here, meaning a sinking euro, and a raising dollar at
least for a brief period if not the whole 2 years.<<<<
- and that institutional and sovereign investors will continue to
park money in Treasurys, despite what China, Russia, and other
BRICs may say. China has no real alternative. It is conceivable
that Japan will reduce its Treasury holdings, and possibly be
forced to borrow on the international market in order to fund its
reconstruction. But the PIIG problem will continue to drive money
into Treasurys. The End of QE2: Does it Matter?
The Fed is serious about freezing its balance sheet starting in
June. They will continue to buy Treasurys as issues mature and
are replaced. But, as Shostak points out, the momentum of money
growth will slow down and that is the key to understanding what
will then happen. If Treasury rates do not take off, then my
assumption about domestic and foreign demand for Treasurys will
be correct. If they do take off, it will be an indication of a
shrinking money supply as Shostak points out which will lead to
economic stagnation or even a market bust.
If treasury rates are starting off at record lows they will
need to come up higher... THIS WILL NOT BUST THE MARKET !!!!
Raising the dollar value will put some pressure on it but not
like 2008 and it will recover fine within a year or two.
On the other hand, I don't believe the Fed will play "chicken"
during an election year, and when things turn ugly they will
announce QE3 and that will kick the can down the inflationary
road. QE3 may be the last installment of this monetary madness.
WRONG WRONG WRONG... QE3 WILL NOT HAPPEN this article is merely
trying to pump up the precious metals markets and put a floor
artificially underneath the equities markets, let them breathe
and self adjust I say !!!!
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at The Daily
Capitalist. Jeff Harding is author of The Daily Capitalist
YEAH WELL DOLLAR BULLS DONT REALLY APPRECIATE IT, haha.
Why Bernanke will be forced to institute QE3
>>>>>>>>>>COUNTERPOINT TO THIS ARTICLE
By Jeff Harding
May 25, 2011 00:54:21 (ET)
SANTA BARBARA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Dr. Frank Shostak, an
Austrian theory economist<<<<<<< WARNING WARNING, haha who works
for MF Global, and who writes for Mises.org on economics, came out
with an article this week on what will happen when the Fed
freezes its balance sheet in June, as they have said they will do.
I very much enjoy Shostak's writing and have followed his ideas
for years.
In this article he says:
"We suggest that once Fed policy makers freeze the balance sheet
of the US central bank it will slow down the growth momentum of
the Fed's balance sheet. Consequently, this is going to exert
downward pressure on the growth momentum of the money supply. Note
that ultimately it is fluctuations in the growth momentum of the
money supply that set in motion fluctuations in the pace of
formations of bubble activities. As a result, various bubble
activities that emerged on the back of the rising growth momentum
of the money supply will come under pressure -- an economic bust
will be set into motion.<<<<<<<<One can perceive that Bubbles in
Oil, Gold & Silver, Housing and Land Development Prices, FOOD
Inflation, may just need to burst for the health of the economy.
Lower prices at the pump, value of the dollar higher to allow more
purchassing power and less bleeding of interest on deficit monies
being more and more with a dollar devaluation.
"Obviously it is possible to have a situation where commercial
banks' expansion of lending "out of thin air" counters the
freezing of the Fed's balance sheet. It remains to be seen whether
this is going to be the case in the months ahead. For the time
being, the Fed's balance sheet continues to expand at a rapid pace. ...
>>>>> THIS IS TOTALLY FALSE, the FED has just announced a
payback from AIG and GM and is in the process of reigning in its
balance sheet !!!!! that statement couldnt be more false. Here
is what is on the FEDS balance sheet as of a little while ago.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/07/fed-balance-sheet-expansion-some-takeaways/
"Now, we suspect that the difficulty the Fed has had in
meaningfully "reviving" the economy so far could indicate that the
state of the pool of real savings or the pool of real funding is
in trouble. This means that even if the growth momentum of lending
does currently show some strengthening ... it is highly unlikely
that, with the weakening of bubble activities on account of the
Fed's freezing its balance sheet, commercial banks will pursue
an aggressive expansion of credit out of thin air. Also, it
is quite likely that with the freezing of the balance sheet,
Treasuries will come under pressure, and the growth
momentum of banks' holdings of Treasuries will weaken. This in
turn will exert downward pressure on the growth momentum of total
bank lending, which includes lending to the government. ...
>>>>>>Whilest the FED has shrunken its balance sheet as of late
there has never been lower interest rates on treasuries and
higher participiation so the prediction of treasuries coming
under pressure is possible and it may even raise the returns on
treasuries from record lows. A GOOD THING...<<<<<<<<<<<
He predicts that CPI growth will reach 5% by year-end.
>>>>>>>>>Sounds relatively TAME to me
"We suggest that once Fed policy makers freeze the balance sheet
of the US central bank, the growth momentum of the money supply
will slow down.
As a result various bubble activities that emerged on the back of
the rising growth momentum of the money supply will come under
pressure. A visible strengthening in the growth momentum of the
CPI may prevent Fed officials from introducing QE3 as suggested
by some experts.
>>>>>>THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO is that as has been stated
Quantitative Easing is effectively over so as not to raise
inflation any higher and to allow for strengthening of the DOllAR
and Interest rates on savings in the banks, and to heal the banks.
It makes sense that when the growth momentum of quantitative
easing stops, that this will eventually affect the markets,
usually six to nine months later.
>>>>> Financial system strengthening during the process of a
slight negative affectation on the markets will be necessary to
recover from too much false fed support of the markets leading to
a false economy and rising inflation for the consumer.
Shostak sees that this will put downward pressure on credit
expansion by banks and thus the money supply will shrink. I think
that is correct as well. We have seen some growth in lending
activity recently and, as I have written lately on this, it is
likely that this will stagnate.
>>>>>>RUBBISH the interest rates will remain low and excessively
low for some time, a new definition of extended period of low
interest rates will be defined by January of 2012 to put a
deadline on the "laissez faire" attitude towards interest rates
and lending....
But there are two factors which lead me to believe that it is more
likely that we will see more quantitative easing.
While Shostak concludes that the Fed is wary of price inflation
(that they are causing) and that this will deter another round of
money pumping, I think the primary motivation behind QE is
unemployment, not price inflation.
The consequence of taking their foot off the money pedal will lead
to higher unemployment and I do not think this is politically
acceptable to the Fed or to the Administration.
>>>>> This is basically farting out of the mouth, there is no
indication that removing QE is going to cause an increase in
unemployment, in fact with a healthier financial and monetary
system confidence may be returned more and less unemployment may
be a result
I think they will institute a new round of quantitative easing
(QE3) because politicians will demand that the Fed "do something."
Which is, of course, the worst thing they could do. It will lead
to more "bubble" activities and higher price inflation. See Will
Fed Insist on Trying to Ignite Unhelpful Wealth Effect?
>>>>> MORE RUBBISH <<<<<<<<
I believe the Fed and the Administration will be willing to
tolerate a higher level of price inflation and for a much longer
period of time, despite the inflation hawks' warnings. I think
this new money stimulus will occur no later than during the start
of the presidential election period (January, 2012), and will
continue until the winner is sworn in. I think Dr. Bernanke will
be fired thereafter.
>>>>>Unless Bernanke wants to be fired which is possible, I
believe he will come out smelling like roses if he removes QE,
bolsters the financial system by first allowing for some inflation
which is occuring as we speak, allowing for dollar inflation, and
then announcing the raising of the interest rates to provide
impetus for lending to occur more rapidly before rates go up.
There are other more advanced measures that he is taking to
bolster the financial system, banking system, monetary system as
well and with some faith those should go well as well.
This would also cast a different light on Treasurys. If I am
correct, then the Treasury market would, post-QE3 remain as it is
today. It is likely though, that between June and when the new QE
round occurs, the freezing of their balance sheet will take some
pressure off the Treasury market as Shostak suggests.
If pressure off the Treasury market means higher rates of
return that good enough !!!!!
Assume that I am incorrect, and the Fed doesn't embark on a new
round of QE. Where will money go? I believe there is sufficient
demand from institutional and foreign sovereign buyers to keep
the market up and keep yields low, despite growing price
inflation.
It is likely that eurozone problems will continue for quite some
time in the future -- at least two more years if I were to guess -
>>>Agreement here, meaning a sinking euro, and a raising dollar at
least for a brief period if not the whole 2 years.<<<<
- and that institutional and sovereign investors will continue to
park money in Treasurys, despite what China, Russia, and other
BRICs may say. China has no real alternative. It is conceivable
that Japan will reduce its Treasury holdings, and possibly be
forced to borrow on the international market in order to fund its
reconstruction. But the PIIG problem will continue to drive money
into Treasurys. The End of QE2: Does it Matter?
The Fed is serious about freezing its balance sheet starting in
June. They will continue to buy Treasurys as issues mature and
are replaced. But, as Shostak points out, the momentum of money
growth will slow down and that is the key to understanding what
will then happen. If Treasury rates do not take off, then my
assumption about domestic and foreign demand for Treasurys will
be correct. If they do take off, it will be an indication of a
shrinking money supply as Shostak points out which will lead to
economic stagnation or even a market bust.
If treasury rates are starting off at record lows they will
need to come up higher... THIS WILL NOT BUST THE MARKET !!!!
Raising the dollar value will put some pressure on it but not
like 2008 and it will recover fine within a year or two.
On the other hand, I don't believe the Fed will play "chicken"
during an election year, and when things turn ugly they will
announce QE3 and that will kick the can down the inflationary
road. QE3 may be the last installment of this monetary madness.
WRONG WRONG WRONG... QE3 WILL NOT HAPPEN this article is merely
trying to pump up the precious metals markets and put a floor
artificially underneath the equities markets, let them breathe
and self adjust I say !!!!
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at The Daily
Capitalist. Jeff Harding is author of The Daily Capitalist
YEAH WELL DOLLAR BULLS DONT REALLY APPRECIATE IT, haha.
Right I have to get a put on the UUP to hedge my position... Confusing trade it is.
For those trading the UUP, we can see that its 2 steps forward and 1
step back. As long as that trend of moving forward continues its
trade on risk on..
It seems like there are a million variables that could send the
dollar lower and ruin the long position UUP trade, but it was
probably the same way in the last 3 to 7 point rises in the UUP.
The current pattern is a day or two of a solid rise and about 4
days of trickling back down. Confusing but net net dollar gains.
Very bullish on what I am hearing so far, hard to say what will
actually go down but my bets are on for it to break through within a
few months.
Weekly UUP chart 22.5 or bust, break through that and its blue skies for a while weez hopes.
A little over 5 years of Top Gear Watching and Classified
searching along with Car and Driver, and Road & Track reading
leads to this article.
During filming at a recent Top Gear filming of a supercar rally in
Shanghai I realized that the designs of these cars have been
viewed from different perspectives.. When conceived most of these
cars such as the Ferrari, the Koenigsegg, and the Bugatti were
design from the perspective of a walk by viewer and a close shot
in a magazine, whereas the Lamborghini perhaps more cleverly was
designed " I believe" from a distance where the sharp surfaces and
corners look too strong up close but give the car a huge standout
appeal from a a distance. I did not expect this and was shocked
after viewing a small beauty contest of cars riding by.
Its called the Shanghai circuit and here the comparisons are:
http://www.topgear.com/uk/car-news/hypercar-video-meet-shanghai-china-f1-circuit-2011-05-18
Lamborghinis latest release in 2011 to 2012 being the first years
of release The Aventador has an interesting history, The name is
associated with a bull fight, the styling may have had
contributors from the people who made the first Oakley Sunglass
designs. Very clever and who would have guessed that.
Clearly a reach for a lighter car with more Horsepower, and a
sleeker side view than the Murcielago that it is replacing. Curb
weights for these cars around 3,000 pounds looks ok some are at
3,500 and the Bugatti is over 4,000 pounds which is the reason
for the huge engine to make up on the HP/Weight ratio.
One complaint would be that the interior design attempts to go
with a bi-color look with black and beige when it is preferred by
most I believe to be mostly beige and only LIGHT black accents.
Another interesting area is whether one can see out the back from
the driver seat. The Koenigsegg as an example only had a porthole
so it puts more importance on the side mirrors.
Wheel styling I believe has dropped a bit with the black tapered 5
spoke wheels from the Murcielagos fancy chrome designs that were
more spectacular looking. Stealthy works on tires but not on
interiors or rims.
Having researched the curb weights, horsepower and torque ratings,
exterior and interior stylings, Horsepower and 0-100km
performance ratings along with top speed. Braking and
Transmission designs, and Switch and button layout and design for
interior consoles, Lamborghini is sort of rising to the top of
the heap of the Austin Martin, Ferrari 599, Koenigsegg, Bugatti,
Mclarens, Gumperts, Maseratis, Mercedes SLR and SLS, Pagani
Zondas, BMW 7 Series, Anything Japanese Really including the GTR
and the Lexus Supercar, and the rest of the hyper/super/touring
car heap.
This shocked and excited me but the excitement was quickly
tempered by an expectation of a starting price for the Aventador
of around $380,000 for the few ( like 400 or so ) that can actually buy one.
http://www.aventador.com/index-eng.html My Oh My probably the best
looking car on the market, but clearly not for everyone in so many
ways.
ONXX getting a little loving, of course I am out of that one, he he
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the intergovernmental organization that oversees the global financial system by following the macroeconomic policies of its member countries, in particular those with an impact on exchange rate and the balance of payments. Its objectives are to stabilize international exchange rates and facilitate development through the encouragement of liberalising economic policies[1] in other countries as a condition of loans, debt relief, and aid.[2] It also offers loans with varying levels of conditionality, mainly to poorer countries. Its headquarters are in Washington, D.C. The IMF’s relatively high influence in world affairs and development has drawn heavy criticism from some sources.[3][4]
IMF "Headquarters 1" in Washington, D.C.
The International Monetary Fund was conceived in July 1944 originally with 45 members and came into existence in December 1945 when 29 countries signed the agreement,[5] with a goal to stabilize exchange rates and assist the reconstruction of the world’s international payment system. Countries contributed to a pool which could be borrowed from, on a temporary basis, by countries with payment imbalances. The IMF was important when it was first created because it helped the world stabilize the economic system. The IMF works to improve the economies of its member countries.[6] The IMF describes itself as “an organization of 187 countries (as of July 2010), working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty.”
Sounds like a crisis management company designed around reparations from WWII.... Kinda outdated but has it modernized?, Is it effective ? Why should we care ?
This board is trying to stay away from OTC and BB stocks !!! got that LE2Dynasty ? They are too dillutive, too illiquid, and scammy for my taste... Best of luck on other boards with those
CNBCs money in motion, trading the FXE in PUTS target range for the
Euro is 1.41 to 1.345
June 134s are .55 x .61 so 10 of them are 610 bucks
Potential earner if 6.50 is realized in a drop of the euro...
.55 x .61 will go to 2.61 x 2.64 so 2.61 divided by .61 or 4.3X
It was stated on CNBC that currency trading the FXE with this range
is around 5 times your money. Here we have 4.3 times with options
which is plenty good enough
The UUP is a pretty exciting trade, Long UUP December 2011 Calls
from 22 to 27 would yield up to 8 to 10 times initial investment.
Market forces that would lead to a 5 point UUP gain are thusly
unknown which is what makes the trade somewhat risky..
Well your right the "lottery play" is not a definition of the equity or the market cap but my commitment to the equity is very light... much like a scratch ticket or a trip to the casino.
I did however try to pick the best market cap and risk/reward growth stocks in this category as an "educated guess".
Its a very difficult field of stocks in biotech and not being an expert for me its a bit like playing the lottery, hehe.
The stocks could be the soundest plays on the markets for that matter but its not suggested that they are too risky or just purely a gamble... Just unknown or not completely understood.
Hello Board, I am tired of the Silver and commodities trade and frankly the trade looks tired out..
So I am in Biotech for some lottery plays as such:
OXGN, AMRN, BIIB, VRTX, REGN, ONXX, QCOR, ALKS, MDVN
Wish me luck and good luck to the Biotech Values board
Biotechs are flying this late spring, hard to pick one earnings wise, and dont know enough about why one would do well over the other.
OXGN, AMRN, BIIB, VRTX, REGN, ONXX, QCOR, ALKS, MDVN from larger
market cap to smaller
Suspended animation for the Silver Spot now, most predict it to go lower, technically it looks to go lower, time will tell now,
Waiting,.... Waiting.
Not everyday is going to be a winner looks like
AMZN having a good 2 month period and is up over 2% today
Why would you want to buy a US asset if you thought the currency was going to go down.
DTG is looking pretty sweet today, up over 12%, deal in the works, and a beat on earnings although down from year prior.
Huge returns on DTG over the past year.
Molycorp Declares Preferred Dividends
9:16 AM ET 5/4/11 | BusinessWire
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP), the Western hemisphere's only producer of rare earth oxides, today announced that its Board of Directors has elected to declare a cash dividend on outstanding shares of its 5.50% Series A mandatory convertible preferred stock in an amount equal to $1.604 per share. Molycorp will pay the dividend on June 1, 2011 to the holders of record of shares of Series A mandatory convertible preferred stock at the close of business on May 15, 2011. As of May 4, 2011, there were a total of 2,070,000 shares of Series A mandatory convertible preferred stock outstanding.
There are 83.9 M shares outstanding so the preferred shares of 2M might be hard to come by.
Happy Mothers Day MOMs out there...No more important job than that
MCP is analyzed due to the earnings due out Monday Evening.. Chart shows that it could drop but one wonders whether the earnings may give it a new round of buying and a leg up:
http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=mcp&ta=1&p=d&s=l
Trading Analysis 101:
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MCP here is the trade: First thought is to figure out how much you can afford to lose and
Protect against a 30% worst recent potential drop or 20 points ( go by the chart here )
By the chart the average potential gain is 20 points or best case is 70 points for a double,
Amount to invest: 6,000 bucks
So 5% protection ( 5% a good rule of thumb ) is 300 bucks for a put best to date out 5 months to September
On the longside you have now 5700 you want 4900 with a long stock position or 70 shares long
with the 800 bucks ( 10 to 13% of capital ) you want a call dated at least 3 months
out or September 2011 for 5 months
Trade 1
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So the purchasse is this as of todays prices:
Insurance: 50 put for September 2011 at 3.30 x 3.68 so 360 bucks
Stock purchasse long MCP: 70 shares @ $68.95 per share or 4830
Call Purchasse of September 2011 80 strike at 7.20 x 7.60 or 760 bucks
Totals are: $5,950 bucks
Scenarios:
1) By September of 2011 MCPs price is 50 bucks I would recover:
Insurance: 1240 bucks
Stock: 3500 bucks
Calls: 380 bucks
Totals: $5,120 dollars or a 830 dollar loss ( 13% loss instead of a 28% loss from a straight stock buy )
2) By September of 2011 the price is 90 dollars I would gain:
Insurance: 50 bucks
Stock: 6300 bucks
Calls: 1710 bucks
Totals: $8,060 bucks or a $2,110 dollar gain by September 2011 ( basically a 33% gain )
3) Best Case is a double or 140 bucks per share I would gain:
Insurance: zero
Stock: 9800 bucks
Calls: 4560 bucks
Totals: $14,360 bucks or a $8,410 dollar gain by September 2011 ( basically a 140% gain )
Trade 2
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For a different scenario that maximizes horsepower or gains by September 2011 I would Use only options:
Purchasse:
Insurance: 50 put for September 2011 at 3.30 x 3.68 so 360 bucks
Calls Purchasse: 5,840 bucks in September calls so buy the 90 calls at 4.70 x 5.20
or 10 contracts at 520 bucks per or 5200 bucks in calls at the 90 strike..
Scenarios:
1) Stock goes to 50 bucks from 70 bucks
Insurance: 1240 bucks
Calls: 2250 bucks
Totals: 3,490 bucks or a loss of $2,510 bucks ( 42% loss )
2) Stock goes to 90 bucks
Insurance: 50 bucks
Calls: 11,700 bucks
Totals: 11,750 bucks or a 5750 dollar gain by September 2011 ( basically a double )
3) Stock doubles to 140 bucks
Insurance: Zed dollars
Calls: 19.20 per share 1,920 per contract or $19,200 dollars for 10 contracts ( basically a triple )
a gain of $13,200 bucks or $2,640 bucks per month
Gains estimates do not include price inflation from increased premium of higher volume invested in calls should the stock price actually double.
Here I would choose Trade 1 since I cannot really afford to lose 2500 bucks, and am more comfortable with the risk of a 800 dollar loss
Trade Execution notes that if a progressive increase in price is not noticed and the stock stays flat or goes down to immediately remove the calls and long stock
purchasses and leave the put up for potential drop appreciation... If the stock continues up in an orderly fashion risk stays on and the trade stays on.
This minimizes the risk of losing the 800 dollars in Trade 1 or the 2500 dollars in Trade 2
Molycorp To Report First Quarter 2011 Financial Results on May 10
Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP) announced today it will release financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2011 after the market closes on Tuesday, May 10, followed by an investor conference call at 4:30 p.m. EDT. Mark Smith, Chief Executive Officer, and James Allen, Chief Financial Officer, will host the call.
AVL and MCP rare earths on watch for a bottom and reversal in trend
With the exception of a few stock winners like herbalife and siri silver remains the most attractive trade, even after scanning pinks and bulletin boards as well.
UUP up and one would think that could help the metals down a bit