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"...personally, I DO NOT believe OWOO has orders for 25000 dolls……….they can say they "PLAN" for 75000 dolls ALL DAY LONG……they won't & haven't fooled the market..."
The backlog inventory really shows the demand. Looking at the 10k, the inventory at Dec 31 ended at $146,488. After the 1st quarter, the inventory dropped to $144,690. The inventory is based on the cost of goods on a FIFO basis. Using my earlier analysis that the cost of goods is about $14.69 per doll, this would mean that their current (March 31, 2014) remaining inventory is around 9,850 dolls. My best guess using the financial data available is that they have sold about 1,250 dolls to date (this would coincide with an initial run of about 10,000 dolls). Using the gross sales to date of $22,842, this would give you an average weighted sales price of $18.27 per doll - this seems in line with the range of pricing we have witnessed.
Using this gross margin ($18.27 - $14.69 = $3.58), one can arrive at OWOO's most optimistic view of selling out the remaining inventory, plus another 75,000 dolls for the upcoming holiday season: about $303k in gross margin by the end of the year. So even with this best case scenario, the figures, only cover 50% of the ongoing $619k interest expense alone, and does not include additional financing needed to make this 75,000 doll inventory run.
To give you a feel for the cost of that new additional run, the last run was put on the books for about $147k for an estimated 10,000 dolls. Using a simple ratio for 75,000 dolls, they need to come up with about $1.1 million.
I see ASCC promoting Drinking and Driving...nice....guess that is better than promoting women's healthcare issues with drinking....
Federowicz is very much still involved - he is the beneficial owner of the company thru his offshore paper company Oxford Panama Holding Corp.
Federowicz has a proven history of installing the next "CEO for hire" at a number of his companies - basically getting paid a fee to be the namesake of the company - Pina is just the next whore to take a quick buck for no work - can't really blame him. Make no mistake, Federowicz is still running the show.
G. Jonathan Pina - the same guy Robert Federowicz hired out of central casting at FTTN....nothing but a snake in the grass....
LUV - the fundamental and technical analysis, clearly shows through evidence of the steady and persistent drop in the stock price since the R/S that it is a bad investment. It is not just my opinion, it is what the unbiased charts show.
Can one make money from the quick flip on the dips and short term rises? absolutely, and congrats btw to you and Bull5!
Your assumption that the technical and fundamental issues which dictate the stock price really don't seem to matter all that much in some cases is incorrect - it is the opposite - it matters in most cases. Can a blind squirrel get a nut? Sure thing. I am not discounting your gains as you have stated on previous posts, you are a gambler and willing to play the swings for the occasional win. In my observations, successful day traders do not ignore the odds associated with the fundamentals. The short term bump in price is likely over (for now) as we are back approaching the previous lows.
How exactly does a note holder "hold back" a stock legally?
I simply assumed Trent is the marketing man since he is being paid significant consulting fees. It really doesn't matter who within OWOO does it, but a simple conversation with the store managers to get their product better visibility was just a suggestion that I would presume you would agree with me would be constructive for shareholders. Simply my observation that the dolls were being thrown on the shelves like any other can of beans.
Regarding the sales figures, it is not speculation, the latest quarterly statement is clear that the dolls are being sold for a loss since the cost of sales exceed the sales revenue - these figures were before the HEB launch, so one can only assume that selling dolls at $14.99 will look worse than selling dolls online at $21.95 to $24.95 range. I was simply trying to quantify where they might be at in terms of margin for the HEB sales. Speculative - but probably not far off. Feel free to pick a more optimistic calculation - the basis for my numbers are backed up by known facts (sales margins, in store pricing).
Please note that my speculative opinion is that their cost of sales is probably more in line with the $14.99 HEB sales price - probably break even just to get their foot in the door. I think this is a good thing for the company - they have to start somewhere. However, extending that "success" with a big retailer will not translate into meaningful sales figures and/or margins anytime soon.
LUV - disregarding for the moment the latest quarterly that shows a negative margin, and using the 4th quarter figures instead, you will see that taking the gross margin and dividing it by the gross sales, you come up with an approximate net margin of 20%. Using the dollgenie online sales price figures of $24.95, and assuming they are making an additional 10% markup, you can back into a breakeven price of about $17.95 as the cost of each doll to make them.
I did a little recon and went to two of the stores you mentioned and actually found the dolls sitting on the shelves with no price tag on them at either store. I had to take one of them to the check out line to get a price check - it was being sold at $14.99. Now HEB will likely be getting a much smaller cut, lets say 2% (typical for grocery stores), so the net sales price back to OWOO is $14.69 per doll. Using the logic I have above, they are losing about $3+ per doll at HEB. Now clearly, this is speculative because we simply don't have the actual figures, but you kind of get the picture that even at a small profit, it will take a substantial number of dolls to pay for the ongoing overhead.
Objectively, the sales price of $14.99 to $19.99 appears to be a good price point for selling the dolls. Also objectively, the dolls were poorly displayed in the store. One display was literally tucked away in a corner opposite the registers - no visibility at all. The other store had the dolls displayed near pool equipment - not exactly the toy isle. Trent needs to do a better job at getting them more visible to front the merchandise. Perhaps the other 2-3 stores have better displays and different pricing - but my initial impression was "meh...".
Much better thanks. My wording would have been "a nice start at a negative margin to get our foot in the door with a major chain"
no...that is not the question....you called it a "major distribution deal" - we are not talking about HEB being "major", we are talking about the "deal" being major. Awhile back I pointed out that the most recent press release stated that they were getting their dolls in a single (Pearland, TX) store which seemed to conflict with earlier press releases that it was in "several" (3-4) stores. My question is simply, how many stores are they currently selling in - is it one? 3? 5? Just trying to quantify this "major distribution deal" you are touting...
How many stores are we up to now for that "Major Distribution" deal with HEB?
"...And what about BOB Hines - 1MM shares!!! Who does he think he is??? Trent's brother-in-law or something?..." - no....but as a member of OWOO's Board, he did stay at a Holiday Inn.....
Here is Bob's history as CEO of EVSO: http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2011/2011-120.htm
LOL....filings.....you mean the last filing from 2005??
Help me understand/quantify how Danny is at risk with "his" money? The $500k is a loan from his company "GO" - in exchange, it is my understanding GO will eventually merge with OBJE, controlling 80% of the new merged company - essentially only risking 20% of GO's $500k. One can argue that GO's money is tied up until May 28, 2016 and can only be converted at $0.05 - only a slight discount to today's share price. However, terms of the loan lock up period can be accelerated by simply demoting or firing Paul Watson and/or a material change of the company structure (i.e. the impending merger). Furthermore, by controlling 80% of the company, Danny can effectively renegotiate the terms of his convertible note.
Here are the details of the licensing agreement:
During the three months ended February 28, 2014, the Company executed a Licensing Agreement with Wazzamba SA (the “Licensor”). The agreement provides the Company an exclusive license to use certain technology (which permits third-party subscribers to integrate a fully equipped online shop into their websites) in Canada and the United States for an initial term ending July 31, 2015. The agreement provides for the Company to pay the Licensor “Flat Fee” compensation of $ 300,000 in 3 installments of $100,000 each (first installment payable within 5 days of the signing of the agreement, second installment payable on July 1, 2014, and third installment payable on February 1, 2015) plus “Revenue Share” compensation equal to 50% of Net Commissions generated by the Company payable monthly. In the event that the Company does not generate $500,000 in Net Commissions by January 31, 2015, the Licensor has the right to cancel the agreement with one month notice (in which case the third $100,000 installment will no longer be due). With respect to an Extended License Term after July 31, 2015, the agreement provides the Company a right of first refusal to match any offer received by the Licensor from a third party.
At February 28, 2014, the Company recorded an intangible asset for “Licensing Agreement with Wazzamba SA” in the amount of $300,000, and included the liability under the Licenses net of accumulated amortization. Commencing March 1, 2014, the Company will amortize the $300,000 intangible asset on a straight line basis over the remaining 17 months of the Initial Term ending July 31, 2015 (approximately $17,647 per month).
On March 27, 2014, the Company paid $25,000 of the first $100,000 “Flat Fee” installment due the Licensor under the agreement. The other $75,000 due is presently past due.
So assuming that the company has made good on the remainder of the 1st installment, and can also make the 2nd $100k installment due July 1, DOMK needs to generate at least $500k in net commissions (50% of which goes to Wazzamba) by the end of the year in order to continue with the licensing arrangement. Since this $500k is a minimum target, let's assume for the moment they are successful in attaining it. After paying out the 50% to Wazzamba, and the $300k licensing fee, the company would need to generate another $100k (for a total of $600k) to break even on their gross margin. Factor in that the Company has an accumulated deficit of $17.8 million since inception, and is currently losing about $1 million per quarter, it is difficult for me to see how they will crawl out of this hole anytime soon, even with the equity interest in Imagic, and this licensing deal ongoing.
On the (short term) flip side, burning thru another 125-150 million shares for the upcoming dilution will probably not be too difficult, especially if they can get any momentum with a little PR.
"....i am holding strong here with the understanding the convertible debt will be taken care..." - an update for you on the convertible stock coming out next week:
6/4/14 - LG Capital $50,000 note convertible at 25% of the lowest trading price during the 20 trading days prior to the notice of conversion. At the current lowest stock price of $0.0016, this equates to a conversion price of $0.00040 or 125 million shares
Congrats on the +/- 15 trades made today on about $5-7000 worth of trades! When put in perspective with the entire doll sales for the last quarter, I would say that is pretty impressive.....
they better hurry with debt conversions coming due next week....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=102338166
Choco - after factoring in the following subsequent event (presumably bonuses after the stellar sales for the quarter??), what is Trent's share count now?:
"Subsequent to March 31, 2014, we issued a total of 23,963,687 shares of our common stock: 39,668 shares for unissued common shares; 16,200,000 shares to our founder, officers and directors for services valued at $972,000"
From the latest 10Q, did anyone happen to notice this sweet deal for the convertible:
7,384,019 shares for debt conversion of $68,529
In other words, this conversion was done at less than $0.0093 - well below current market price. Wonder if this was some of the creative and more lucrative/beneficial financing promised earlier in the year....
"Is anybody keeping track of the number of OWOO supporters here vs. OWOO bashers?" - well....since last Friday, there have been 156 "pro" posts, and 103 "basher" posts....as Charlie Sheen would say, guess you guys are "winning"....
"...if we could get some more supporters in here to kind of balance out the conversation..." - the number of "pro" posters are running about 2:1 ahead of "bashers" - I think the balance could go the other way.
From the press release, looks like Danny has not taken over yet for Paul...sounds like two snakes in the grass anyway.....
Even with news....sorry
A little history for ya... http://newsok.com/oklahoma-ceo-faces-lifetime-securities-ban-fine-in-case/article/3941891
Scambler has since got a plea deal for his felony offenses - sentencing is tomorrow.... http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/GetCaseInformation.asp?submitted=true&viewtype=caseGeneral&casemasterID=2967265&db=Oklahoma
Trading symbol back to GTSO: http://www.otcbb.com/asp/dailylist_detail.asp?d=05/23/2014&mkt_ctg=OTCBB
yes - I am just realizing that I thought they had launched the product in multiple HEB stores that had requested restocking after the "sellout" only to find out that they are now back to being in just one store.
Regarding that doll at HEB, you do realize that it is being offered at only a single HEB store in Pearland, right? Might not be worth the gas money to capture the savings there....
Looking at the most recent (2014) convertibles (#43- #53) I see that the Company has been successful in securing a number of placements ranging in conversion price of $0.0025 to $0.06 with accompanying interest rates of 8% to 22%. I would argue that the Company made out pretty darn good at those prices/interest rates - the investors.....not so good as all of them** are underwater!
**3 convertibles are at variable pricing - it is unknown if they are underwater.
In all seriousness, I think they just got the UPS Store PO Box wrong - this is right around the corner from Robert Federowicz and Kathleen Delaney's offices at 1990 Post Oak Blvd, Ste 120, Houston, TX: https://www.google.com/maps/dir/1990+Post+Oak+Blvd+%23120,+Houston,+TX+77056/Tasti+D-Lite,+1707+Post+Oak+Blvd,+Houston,+TX+77056/@29.7474716,-95.4635758,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x8640c169e76bd4c1:0x621b51527da104e7!2m2!1d-95.4623723!2d29.7451992!1m5!1m1!1s0x8640c14112fb74f3:0x21afef390adb61e8!2m2!1d-95.460405!2d29.749729?hl=en
"But you do agree that securing distribution is and fundamental key to attract the right kinds of deals, correct? " - dunno....what sort of discount would you be willing to risk your money for with the company if you had $500k to risk for say 90 days? 10%? 50%? More?
Here is a serious suggestion....if I were in your shoes, and seriously thought the company was really going to be a long term winner, why don't you request a Private Placement with them - I am certain they are looking for long term investors like you to support the company and would be willing to give you a reasonable (30%?) discount in exchange for you to tie up your Restricted shares for a period of time (90-180 days?). This would be a win-win - you could acquire shares at a substantial discount, the company would secure some short term financing from someone who is likely to hold beyond the restriction period, and other shareholders would begin to appreciate your vote of confidence in the company.
Once you get your deal done, you can then appreciate what sort of discount they may be willing to do for others, and whether that is realistic to assume they will get.
It all depends upon the terms. Private Equity will require some incentive from the company (i.e. issue significantly discounted shares) - no one just "gives" money to a start up without the potential for covering their capital risk. In exchange for the discount, the company could lock it up for a certain restriction period. The net effect is that you rob Peter to pay Paul - delaying dilution by refinancing your debt. If this is done in conjunction with a substantial increase in sales while simultaneously tightening the G&A overhead burden, you begin to chip away at the spiraling effect of ongoing dilution.
My observation is that the Company has really dug a pretty deep hole for itself - I am not so sure they can find a reasonable deal out there - it will have to be done in small increments.
GTSO new trading symbol is GTSOE due to delinquent filings: http://www.otcbb.com/asp/dailylist_detail.asp?d=05/21/2014&mkt_ctg=OTCBB
Best of luck to you on your Hopes and Value Slogans.
New debt conversions coming due:
6/4/14 - LG Capital $50,000 note convertible at 25% of the lowest trading price during the 20 trading days prior to the notice of conversion. At the current stock price of $0.0019, this equates to a conversion price of $0.000475 or 105.3 million shares
6/10/14 - Asher Enterprises, Inc. $32,500 note convertible at 55% of the average of the two lowest closing prices during the 15 trading days prior to the notice of conversion. At the current stock price of $0.0019, this equates to a conversion price of $0.001045 or 31.1 million shares.
investor876 - have you read the latest 10Q?? Have you done the math on how many dolls it would take to dig out of this hole?? How exactly should we measure whether OWOO has risen out of the spiraling debt?
This is the same Paul Watson - from OBJE's 10K:
"From 2005 through 2009, Mr. Watson served as a mergers and acquisitions advisor and private equity group manager for KPMG Financial Advisory Services in Shanghai, China. From 2009 until 2011, he was Managing Director of Hermes Investment Group, a merchant bank focused on clean technology and environmental science established in Shanghai, China, and headquartered in the United States. He is a graduate of the University of Houston Bauer College of Business with a bachelor’s degree in finance. He speaks English, Chinese and Spanish. Mr. Watson also serves as CEO and sole director of Green Technology Solutions Inc."
Also recognize that Paul Watson is just a minion hired out of central casting by Robert Federowicz, the controlling beneficial owner (35%) of the company thru his offshore company called Oxford Panama Holding Corp. Federowicz has used a number of Panama and Polish corporations to hide his involvement in a number of pinkies, with offshore names such as Eastern Rim Funds Inc., Eluru Investments, Vilar Investments, Sayword Investments, Rosentax, Paradigm Capital, Eaton Central America, Levantera SA, etc...the names change each year with each new 10K - just a shell game for him.
fyi - looks like OBJE's part time CEO quit his other part time CEO gig: http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=62256161
Nope. Had a friend drive by yesterday to confirm. This is an upscale yogurt shop and it appears to be doing quite well.
OWOO DD
Of course there is - it is called the OTC Market Place.... Remember, Robert Hines (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=83799200), OWOO Board of Director, is a long time friend of SEC recividists and felons Jack and Darrel Uselton:
https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/oagnews/release.php?id=2088
More on OWOO Director, Robert Hines, former CEO of EVSO: http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2011/2011-120.htm
More on Hines other friends, the Austin's: http://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2012/lr22501.htm