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Sell in May and go away / Geopolitics-smoke-&-mirrors
The peaking opportunity window is narrowing.....
Geopolitics smokes are coming out of South China Sea, it could be one of the mirrors the 'magician' try to distract the 'audiences' ,,,, something big is looming..
China, Vietnam, Philippines collide amid escalating South China Sea tensions
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/08/world/asia/south-china-sea-drilling/
Vietnam and China ships 'collide in South China Sea'
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-27293314
USS Blue Ridge confronts PLA warships in South China Sea
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1101&MainCatID=11&id=20140508000118
Russian Pacific Fleet gears up for joint naval drills with China
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/730751
The Varyag, a Slava-class missile cruiser with anti-aircraft and anti-submarine striking capabilities, will lead the Pacific Fleet force toward Shanghai in mid-May for South China Sea exercises code-named Joint Sea 2014.
photo: The Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet flagship "Varyag" (missile cruiser) sails from Vladivostok on the way to Shanghai
http://i.ssimg.cn/guancha/News/2014/05/08/635351461775072009.jpg
http://videocdn.itar-tass.com/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/en/uploads/i/20140507/1039303.jpg
05/08/14 Misc.
The former bear gauge SPX 1859.67 (0.236 1897.28-1737.92) served as a meaningful support (05/07 intraday low 1859.79).
Use SPX as a guide, closing above 1886 (1885.53) is the key for continuous advance, i still don't see new high possibility on NDX & RUT.
1859.67-1885.53-1912.84 forming an interesting Fibonacci relationship. (off 0.73 points from the idea case)
05/07/14 status review
>> 04/22 11:33:20 PM
>> SPX Time window (05/02 - 05/12)
>> 04/22 10:45:48 AM
>> there is a good chance to see SPX & DJI to test their highs
>> or make new highs in early May,
>> NDX & RUT may produce a lower high respectively.
>> 05/02
>> It is very clear there is progressive divergence in DJI & SPX
>> that implies limit upside potential. and weakness showing in
>> RUT & NDX, their down trend is 'pretty much' confirmed
>> without seeing 50SMA crossing below 200SMA
status:
DJI (04/04) 16631.63 (05/02) 16620.06 testing high, first attempt failed
SPX (04/04) 1898.28 (05/02) 1891.33 testing high, first attempt failed
NDX (03/07) 3737.36 (04/24) 3613.20 (0.618@3613.88 3414.11 3737.36)
RUT (03/04) 1212.82 (04/22) 1157.87 (0.500@1154.31 1095.80 1212.82)
'Beware-Experts-Bearing-Predictions' & 'Measuring-Traders-Performance'
A few web forums quoted the same commentary in the last few days.
Beware Experts Bearing Predictions
April 30, 2014 Patrick O'Shaughnessy
http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/4/30/beware-experts-bearing-predictions
A similar study was conducted specifically for investing/market forecasts. The CXO Advisory group gathered 6,582 predictions from 68 different investing gurus made between 1998 and 2012, and tracked the results of those predictions. There were some very well-known names in the sample, but the average guru accuracy was just 47%--worse than a coin toss. Of the 68 gurus, 42 had accuracy scores below 50%.
Another study of analyst estimates conducted by David Dreman showed that across 400,000 different estimates, the average error was 43%!
read more:
http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/4/30/beware-experts-bearing-predictions
Measuring Traders Performance
February 4/September 12, 2013
The main purpose is to study traders’ short term trading performance. This report was based on total 12 stock picking contests result and total 1028 participants’ score board.
In essence: after sufficient number of attempts (trades), the lumpsum odd to profit from short term trades is no better than 50%
total participants 1028
beating the market 484 47.1%
Got profit 506 49.2%
profit > = 1% 405 39.4%
Legend
A participants beat market
B participants got profit
C participants profit > 1%
D number of participants , their skill could be considered at least in an averaged level
E link to the stock contest result, wenxuecity.com stock picking contest
A B C D E
24 24 22 71 16 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3110750.html
33 33 26 75 15 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3106488.html
41 50 40 82 14 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3101906.html
27 34 22 93 13 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3096276.html
32 39 32 88 12 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3090043.html
23 32 21 92 11 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3083360.html
31 45 31 91 10 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3075047.html
55 75 71 93 09 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3068813.html
62 27 21 98 08 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3062023.html
51 55 48 87 07 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3057373.html
59 56 45 82 06 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3050234.html
46 36 26 76 05 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3044323.html
investorplace free news letter
nowwhat
>> Monday, 05/05/14 08:45:14 PM
>> Fuel-Cell Stocks
>> link
>> Ops!, shall be a new post, not a reply, sorry!
I did not tie you with Fuel-Cell Stocks, the info came from
the free news letter:
http://investorplace.com/free-newsletters/#.U2kBF3Y9BiQ .
From time to time, they do have some good inputs.
05/06/14 critical resistance 1886, Astro & monkey wrench
imho: 1886 (1885.53) ties with a time correlated Fibonacci ratio 0.764 (=1 - 0.236), it was the resistance on 05/05. Today's opening weakness hints the rally sentiment is fading. Without taking out 1886 and closing above it, the peaking process is ending. Otherwise, the bullish window will cut off on time till 05/12. allows +/-. This is a "turbulence" period. Support is 1879.54-1877.71, 1846.04-1841.19.
>> 05/02/14
>> projections:
>> key words: "SPX & DJI to test their highs or make new highs
>> in early May"
>>
>> 04/04/14 SPX Turbulence
>> the following one-year cycle together with its harmonics
>> suggest the coming April/May juncture +/- could form an
>> important inflection point, this is in consistency with prior
>> cycle assessment that a multiple month peak/trough
>> will be made. The week-to-week phasing polarity is
>> hard to predict.
>> chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/35244715921117651464.jpg
05/05/14 Astro & monkey wrench
The cyclist(s) said a lot about the Low observed in 04/11-04/14, imho, that correlates well with the Siderograph 'medium terms'. The "turn dates" has a window +/- one week, time will tell how this particular Astro tool will perform.
Constructing The Siderograph (google the web address)
Any combination of slower moving planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto in aspect to another from this same group of planets, are collectively referred to as "long-term". All other planetary aspect combinations are referred to as "medium-term". The final algebraic formula is as follows:
Siderograph = S = W ( L + D ) + M
Where: M is the average of the (m)edium terms, L is the average of the (l)ong terms, D is the (d)eclinations, and W is a factor used to add extra (w)eight to the long-term planets (Bradley suggests W=4).
Fuel-Cell Stocks
FYI
bad Investments #2: Fuel-Cell Stocks
Fuel cell players like Plug Power (PLUG) and Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) soared to start the year; PLUG soared more than 1,000% from December 2013 to March 2014, and Ballard gained more than 500% in the same period.
They posted that kind of performance despite both companies bleeding cash, with no clear demand or growth for their product lines … just a nice narrative to keep selling to investors.
No wonder Citron Research released a note calling Plug Power a “casino stock” with “a history of broken promises and a failure to deliver.”
read more:
http://investorplace.com/2014/05/5-fad-investments-dump/view-all/#.U2gvdHY9BiQ
05/05/2014 SPX summary
So far, TheWaveTrading crew did pretty good speculation
>> Sunday, 05/04/14 11:14:47 PM
SPX: Follow Up of The Ending Diagonal Pattern
By: TheWaveTrading | Sun, May 4, 2014
I maintain as a probable scenario that price from the October 2013 low is forming an Ending Diagonal. ...(skip).... If the Ending Diagonal pans out (Terminal Elliott Wave pattern) SPX should conclude a Double Zig Zag from the March 2009 lows opening the door to a major reversal.
large size chart:
http://static.safehaven.com/authors/calissano/33668_a_large.png
read more:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/33668/spx-follow-up-of-the-ending-diagonal-pattern
SPX: Follow Up of The Ending Diagonal Pattern
FYI
SPX: Follow Up of The Ending Diagonal Pattern
By: TheWaveTrading | Sun, May 4, 2014
I maintain as a probable scenario that price from the October 2013 low is forming an Ending Diagonal. ...(skip).... If the Ending Diagonal pans out (Terminal Elliott Wave pattern) SPX should conclude a Double Zig Zag from the March 2009 lows opening the door to a major reversal.
read more:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/33668/spx-follow-up-of-the-ending-diagonal-pattern
Tony (Anthony Caldaro)
weekend update Posted on May 3, 2014
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/05/03/weekend-update-447/
>> GLD looks like a buy
FYI
Gold Breaks Out of Falling Wedge
May 03, 2014 at 05:41 PM | written by Carl Swenlin
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2014/05/gold-breaks-out-of-falling-wedge.html
Despite the breakout, as of 4/22/2014 Gold is on a Trend Model SELL signal. The Long-term Trend Model is also on a SELL signal going back to 2/15/2013, so our long-term posture on gold remains bearish.
Shanghai 2000 is too obvious to trade for long
nowwhat
imho: Shanghai 2000 is too obvious to trade for long, it is becoming a trap. Other than a few tickers, (a safer) buy (for long) point is 1775. Short is not an efficient route.
>> Friday, 03/14/14 03:56:19 PM
>> Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index . .
(a safer) buy point 1775
time stamp July 17, 2012, 5:09:19 AM
2013: http://forexrainbow.com/images/91747903153046729821.jpg
2014: http://forexrainbow.com/images/70867769592146857263.jpg
NEXT WEEK COULD BE CRITICAL Andre Gratian 05/04/2014
Market Turning Points
By: Andre Gratian | Sun, May 4, 2014
NEXT WEEK COULD BE CRITICAL
Cycles
"More important cycles are expected to top in the first couple of weeks of May. This would allow DJIA to complete its diagonal pattern before starting a protracted decline."
Erik Hadik is one of the most comprehensive cycle analysts I know. He had warned that an initial top could take place during the March 3-7 period and this proved to be correct since this is when the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 made their highs. He is also warning that a secondary period of highs could come between May 5 and 9 ......
read more:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/33670/market-turning-points
05/02/14 200 SMA vs. 50 SMA
I altered MACD's default parameters to reflect the status for 200SMA vs. 50SMA (In fact, the 50SMA/200SMA are well filtered data); It is very clear there is progressive divergence in DJI & SPX that implies limit upside potential. and weakness showing in RUT & NDX, their down trend is 'pretty much' confirmed without seeing 50SMA crossing below 200SMA
05/02/14 enters time zone 05/02-05/12, center 05/06
“The sun always shines above the clouds.”
- Paul F. Davis
When Clouds Clear
>> 04/28/14
>> Bullish Timing (to see peaking action on 05/06 +-) cuts off Today
>> (center) with 1-3 days margin,
The timing is well behaved, We got the expected low. An intervening low is asserted; The intraday low observed on 04/28 was 1850.61, then SPX reversed to up again.
>> 04/22
>> there is a good chance to see SPX & DJI to test their highs
>> or make new highs in early May,
>> NDX & RUT may produce a lower high respectively.
Peak status (intraday based):
DJI (04/04) 16631.63
SPX (04/04) 1898.28
NDX (03/07) 3737.36
RUT (03/04) 1212.82
04/30/14 FOMC Release
Release Date: April 30, 2014
For immediate release
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140430a.htm
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising more quickly. Business fixed investment edged down, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in May, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (PDF)
2014 Monetary Policy Releases
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage Backed Securities
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/monetary20140430a1.pdf
ahimsak:
Thank You
I hold corp bonds together with core positions, I put tickers in "My Stocks" yesterday. bought long time ago, all dividend stocks.
04/28/14 SPX
intraday high 1877.01, reference point 0.764/1877.71
intraday low 1850.61 in progress, reference points 1851.38-1849.63
Da-Boy always places the dice in the dangling point.
Bullish Timing (to see peaking action on 05/06 +-) cuts off Today (center) with 1-3 days margin,
critical support 1841.30. (bottom chart)
0.3236/1841.19 is considered a milder pullback, it overlaps with local wave @ 0.618/1841.30
>> 04/22
>> scenario: a milder pullback in this week/coming Monday
>> may suggest a peaking action in early May.
04/28/14 FB gap 54.95-60.17 filled
price action is in favor of "A (down)-B (up)-C (down)" structure. C wave is imminent or already on the way
03/26/14
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/89399531133439675902.jpg
04/01/14
first open gap 54.95-60.17
04/24
The price pattern looks bearish as if it is forming
a classical A (down)-B (up, ongoing)-C (down) structure.
an equal movement on C will put price around 46.76.
Well, this is merely a wishful thinking, let’s see.
04/26/14 SPX weekend review
Near term outlook
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS
WaveTrack International GmbH, 28th April 2014
http://www.wavetrack.com/
There are several bearish divergences appearing in U.S. stock markets. With more recent advances from the mid-April lows, the S&P and the Dow Jones (DJIA) have traded above their secondary highs of late March in confirming the continuity of the preceding uptrend with targets to record highs.
In contrast to this, the Nasdaq and Russell indices are synchronizing their mid-April gains but as counter-trend zig zag patterns. As continued gains extend during the coming weeks, this bearish divergence should become evident as the S&P and Dow make record highs whilst the Nasdaq and Russell remain below their February/March highs.
The S&P’s advance from its February low represents a finalizing 5th wave that is taking the form of a contracting-diagonal pattern. This limits its upside potential even though fib-price-ratio measurements measure upside targets finalizing towards 1931.33 during the next few weeks.
weekend update
Anthony Caldaro April 26, 2014
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
LONG TERM: bull market
..... .... ..... the important Primary wave III as it nears its conclusion. When it does conclude, the Primary IV correction that follows will likely be the largest since 2012 and in the area of 15% or more. A correction we all would certainly like to avoid.
The long term pattern remains unchanged. Primary waves I and II ended in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since then. When Primary IV gets underway it will probably bottom with the 4-year Presidential cycle low scheduled for this year. The last four Presidential cycle lows occurred in: July 2010, July 2006, October 2002 and October 1998. In each case they created the low price for the year. Then after Primary IV bottoms, Primary V should take the market to all time new highs.
04/25/14 VLO closed for discussion
>> 04/24/14 VLO
>> is VLO ripe for a Short?
>> earning release date 04/29
>> Your comment is highly appreciated!
a date typo
>> (04/25 wrong) 04/22 (correct)
>> link
>> scenario: a milder pullback in this week/coming Monday
>> may suggest a peaking action in early May,
>> The exact date is hard to perceive (it drifts around),
>> best guess is around 05/06 +/-.
04/25/14 SPX closing summary
intraday day low 1859.70, bear gauge is 1859.67.
Da-Boy grips the line in a well controlled manner.
barring big geopolitics events, Here is the same 6 boring words:
“Overall SPX structure still looks bullish”
cycletimer Apr 25 2014, 12:52 PM (PDT)
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=&showtopic=153861&view=findpost&p=692420
LOW Apr25
HIGH May 6
04/25/14 SPX
>> 04/22
>> scenario: a milder pullback in this week/coming Monday
>> may suggest a peaking action in early May,
intraday low 1861.53 in progress
S&P open gap 1846.01-1844.02
Two sets of reference
----------------------------
1884.89-1814.36
0.3236 1862.07 (1.618/5)
0.3820 1857.95
0.6180 1841.30
-----------------------------
1897.28-1737.92
0.2360 1859.67 bear gauge
>> RE Putin
After captured Narva in 1704 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Narva_%281704%29 )
Czar Peter the great coined the commemorative event
Follow the “glorious” history
In “honor” of the Crimea "joining" Russia,
Russia's armory will begin manufacturing a new commemorative coin. Of course, placing the Russia President Vladimir Putin (an emboss portrait) in the front side of the Commemorative coin , the contours of Crimea in the back.
http://www.guancha.cn/culture/2014_04_22_224059.shtml
Vladimir Putin: Russia's great adventurer
04/24/14 FB after the earning release
archives
03/26/14
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/89399531133439675902.jpg
03/31/14
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/50236292535747738577.jpg
04/01/14
first open gap 54.95-60.17
the odd to see FB @52 before the earnings announcement date is below 50%
04/06/14
For an outright speculation, I was looking for just a Gap filling (before the earnings announcement date)
Facebook Earnings: The Social Network Enters A New Era Of Slow Growth
Jim Edwards Apr. 23, 2014, 5:03 PM
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-q1-earnings-2014-4#ixzz2zoRyOMqP
The company is growing really fast — revenues were up 72%, and ad revenue was up 82%.
But growth in key areas is slowing, or about to slow, dramatically. The desktop side of Facebook looks like it may have entered a terminal decline (forgive the pun). And the rate of ad revenue growth is about to decline precipitously, CFO David Ebersman warned, due to tough comparable numbers from the year before
04/22/14 SPX Timing window
Ralph Vaughan Williams - The Lark Ascending | Janine Jansen
Insight China (3): China Housing inventory & Housing price
Commercial Residential Buildings inventory
(Chinese fonts) http://www.guancha.cn/WangYi/2014_03_14_210557.shtml
2014-03-14 09:52:17
Sales Prices of Residential Buildings in 70 Medium and Large-sized Cities in March 2014
National Bureau of Statistics of China 2014-04-22 13:42
to see the detail breakdown by city, use this Link
In English: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201404/t20140422_542963.html
I. The Sales Prices of Newly Constructed Commercial Residential Buildings (excluding affordable housing) (See Table II)
Comparing with the previous month, among 70 medium and large-sized cities, the sales prices of newly constructed commercial residential buildings declined in 4 cities, that of 10 cities remained at the same level, and that of 56 cities increased. For the price changes month-on-month, the highest increase was up by 0.6 percent, the lowest was down by 0.2 percent.
Comparing with the same month of last year, the sales prices of newly constructed commercial residential buildings decreased in 1 city, and increased in 69 cities. In March, for the price changes year-on-year, the highest increase was up by 15.5 percent, the lowest was down by 4.2 percent.
II. Sales Prices of Second-Hand Residential Buildings
Comparing with the previous month, the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings decreased in 14 cities, that of 14 cities remained at the same level, and that of 42 cities increased. For the price changes month-on-month, the highest increase was up by 1.1 percent, the lowest was down by 1.0 percent.
Comparing with the same month of last year, the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings decreased in 2 cities, and that of 68 cities increased. In March, for the price changes year-on-year, the highest increase was up by 13.2 percent, the lowest was down by 8.4 percent.
>> 04/22/14 summary
>> 04/22 10:45:48 AM
>> SPX testing 0.786/1879.54
S&P500 closed one cent above 1879.54. resistance 1886.17 ...
imho, this is a very simple strategy for a safer bet on opening a long (large swing) short, that is to see the 50 SMA crossing below the 200 SMA. An event may take place when 200SMA reaches 1800 +/-.
04/22/14 SPX testing 0.786/1879.54
The low cycle in the projected time window 04/14/-04/17 dragged SPX down to 1814.36 (,1815.80,1816.29 triple bottoms), did not reach the projected 1812.74. and then reversed.
chart (04/17) indicates the deep retracement 0.786 is 1879.54, so far the intraday high is 1880.42.
Bull has gained the upper hand, without staging a quick pullback below the open gap 1844.02-1846.01 decisively, there is a good chance to see SPX & DJI to test their highs or make new highs in early May, NDX & RUT may produce a lower high respectively.
>> 04/04
>> bear gauge 1859.67
>>
>> 04/10
>> A tentative intermediate low projection based on latest data
>> for S&P is 1812.74-1789.90
chart 04/17
Astro: Drawing a Line in the Sand
The Seven Exact Uranus-Pluto Squares of 2012-2015
http://www.evolvewithastrology.com/the-uranus-pluto-squares-of-2012-2015.html
http://www.astrology21.co.uk/c1uranuspluto.html
The Uranus-Pluto square occurs seven times due to the retrograde motion of both planets, between June 2012-March 2015.
Exact 7 times 06/24/12, 09/19/12, 05/20/13, 11/01/13, 04/21/14, 12/15/14, 03/17/15
The fifth alignment
21st April 2014
13 Aries 34 (Uranus) 13 Capricorn 34 (Pluto)
MMA Comments for the Week Beginning April 21, 2014
Written by Raymond Merriman
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-april-21,-2014/
There is and will be nothing quite like this again in our lifetime. This particular passage – the fifth of the seven – may be the most important of all .
In terms of markets, we note that Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus are all involved. Usually that combination means very sharp price swings and potential reversals in many markets, especially Crude Oil. Let’s see if it manifests that way this week.
April 2014 Grand Cross - Drawing a Line in the Sand
by Bill Herbst 8 April 2014
Grand Cross chart (copy right) in page 2:
http://www.billherbst.com/Comm11.pdf
This is the most provocative “trigger” alignment that will occur during the entire three-year square between Uranus and Pluto. .... Part of what makes the Grand Cross alignment so ripe with meaning is that Uranus and Pluto make the fifth of their seven exact squares during the Cross (on April 21st). That, friends, is very potent symbolic dynamite, with Mars as the blasting cap.
My best interpretation as an astrologer is that many such issues that divide us will be subject to the same upwelling away from the existing status quo and toward provocative change from May 2014 on Politics, business, economic and financial issues, ....., etc. will all be more and more subject to serious, sometimes profound change in the years ahead that represents an end to “business as usual”
White Rabbit In the Alice wonderland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Rabbit
http://www.alice-in-wonderland.net/school/white-rabbit.html
In the Alice wonderland, the White Rabbit is the first Wonderland character Alice encounters. He appears at the very beginning of the book , wearing a waistcoat, and muttering "Oh dear! Oh dear! I shall be too late!" However, the White Rabbit is confident enough about himself ...
Because Alice follows him, he gets things moving again whenever he appears during the story. In a way, he is some kind of a guide through Wonderland for her, only unintentionally.
Financial astrology: can the stars affect stocks?
By Will Storr
4:20PM GMT 06 Dec 2013
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/culturenews/10481595/Financial-astrology-can-the-stars-affect-stocks.html
>> Japan's days are numbered economically
"They are only numbers. Numbers on paper; once you understand that... it's easy to make them behave."
- Master of Coin Petyr Baelish
Currency - Game of Thrones – a new season starts
Put together, each movement embodies the quintessence of each chess player's strategy
(Philadelphia Philharmonic Choir)(cynic)
Monetary Policy in Japan: Finally on Track
By PHILLIP SWAGEL
December 31, 2013, 11:00 am
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/monetary-policy-in-japan-finally-on-track/
the weak yen is the natural consequence of the appropriate policy response that Japan has finally put into place after years of urging by American policy makers and economists alike — a response that is fundamentally in the best interest of both Japan and the United States. This is no more an instance of currency manipulation than the assertion that the Federal Reserve under Mr. Bernanke in undertaking three rounds of quantitative easing sought to weaken the dollar to create a trade advantage for the United States.
Can Abe deliver Japan from stagnation?
7 April 2014
Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia Forum
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2014/04/07/can-abe-deliver-japan-from-stagnation/
The critics concede that the short term stimulus has been successful, but argue that Japan’s headed for big problems in the medium term. Either it will fail to end Japan’s long slump, or it will succeed to the point where the BOJ has to formulate an ‘exit policy’ from its current aggressive easing, along the lines of the US Federal Reserve’s current ‘tapering’.
China's yuan slides to near one-year low as economic risks mount
By Michelle Chen
HONG KONG Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:28am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-markets-china-yuan-close-idUSBREA2I0PM20140319
MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
Monday, April 07, 2014 9:12 PM
US Treasury Warns China Over Yuan Depreciation; Treasury Hypocrites; What If?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/04/us-treasury-warns-china-over-yuan.html
In yet another case of blatant US hypocrisy, Bloomberg reports U.S. Treasury Warns Against China Reviving Yuan Controls.
04/17/14 On fundamentals: ECRI-WLI & Industrial-Production
ECRI WLI Unchanged
Apr 17 2014
https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-reports-indexes/all-indexes
https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/ecri-wli-unchanged
Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is picking up steam.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.9% in the week ended April 11, up from 3.3% in the previous week.
The index itself was flat at 134.9. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."
The March ECRI index growth rate strengthened to 2.9% from 1.6% in February, but was still down from 4.0% in January.
The report was released Thursday, one day earlier than usual, because financial markets will be closed for Good Friday.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Release Date: April 16, 2014
http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/G17/current/default.htm
Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in March after having advanced 1.2 percent in February. The rise in February was higher than previously reported primarily because of stronger gains for durable goods manufacturing and for mining. For the first quarter as a whole, industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 4.4 percent, just slightly slower than in the fourth quarter of 2013.
In March, the output of manufacturing rose 0.5 percent, the output of utilities increased 1.0 percent, and the output of mines gained 1.5 percent. At 103.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in March was 3.8 percent above its level of a year earlier.
Capacity utilization for total industry increased in March to 79.2 percent, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2013) average but 1.2 percentage points higher than a year prior.
SPX bear gauge 1859.67 - Crossing the Rubicon?
>> 04/04/14 12:49:05 PM
>> bear gauge 1859.67
intraday high 1859.43 in progress
1859.67-1865.60
intraday frame
0.236/1859.67 (1897.28 1737.92)
local frame
0.618/1865.60 (1897.28 1814.36)
>> Fears grow over China property flameout
FWIW
National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/
Economic Development in the First Quarter of 2014: Stable and Sound
2014-04-16 10:00
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201404/t20140416_539868.html
According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first quarter of this year was 12,821.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4 percent.
The value added of the primary industry was 777.6 billion yuan, up by 3.5 percent year-on-year; that of the secondary industry was 5,758.7 billion yuan, up by 7.3 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 6,285.0 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent.
The gross domestic product of the first quarter went up by 1.4 percent against the previous quarter.
1. Agricultural Production Remained Stable.
2. Industrial Production Growth Dropped Slightly.
3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Slowed Down at High Level.
4. Market Sales Kept Steady Growth.
5. Exports Dropped.
6. Consumer Price Remained Stable.
7. Urban and Rural household Income Increased Rapidly.
8. Structural Adjustment Made Progress.
9. Money Supply Kept Steady Growth.
National Real Estate Development and Sales in March 2014
2014-04-16 16:01
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201404/t20140416_540312.html
Sales Prices of Residential Buildings in 70 Medium and Large-sized Cities in February 2014
2014-03-20 14:53
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201403/t20140320_527351.html
I. The Sales Prices of Newly Constructed Commercial Residential Buildings (excluding affordable housing)
Comparing with the previous month, among 70 medium and large-sized cities, the sales prices of newly constructed commercial residential buildings declined in 4 cities, that of 9 cities remained at the same level, and that of 57 cities increased. For the price changes month-on-month, the highest increase was up by 0.7 percent, the lowest was down by 0.2 percent.
II. Sales Prices of Second-Hand Residential Buildings
Comparing with the previous month, the sales prices of second-hand residential buildings decreased in 15 cities, that of 9 cities remained at the same level, and that of 46 cities increased. For the price changes month-on-month, the highest increase was up by 1.1 percent, the lowest was down by 0.9 percent.
BRICS to set up their own IMF
BRICS countries to set up their own IMF
Olga Samofalova, Vzglyad, 14 April 2014
full text: http://rbth.com/business/2014/04/14/brics_countries_to_set_up_their_own_imf_35891.html
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)
have made significant progress in setting up structures that would
serve as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank, which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU.
A currency reserve pool, as a replacement for the IMF, and a
BRICS development bank, as a replacement for the World Bank,
will begin operating as soon as in 2015, Russian Ambassador at
Large Vadim Lukov has said.
It is expected that contributions to the currency reserve pool will be
as follows: China, $41 billion; Brazil, India, and Russia, $18 billion
each; and South Africa, $5 billion. The amount of the contributions
reflects the size of the countries' economies.
BRICS Development Bank
Currency reserve pool
The currency reserve pool will also help the BRICS countries to
gradually establish cooperation without the use of the dollar
04/15/14 an overlap on long-term-and-short-term wave Fibonacci cluster
>> 03/24/14 12:48:24 PM
>> I am not an E-wave advocator, use it to exchange ideas
>> 03/06/14
>>There is no easy way to know which wave set is dominating,
>> usually an overlap in a long term/short term cluster gives a glue.
Now, We have an overlap on long term and short term Fibonacci cluster. (1)(2)
(1) short term cluster
On 04/04, SPX marked an intraday high 1897.28. This value is close enough to the projection made on 02/12 , 1903.59. (based on local/near term wave projection http://forexrainbow.com/images/85205427314277595081.jpg )
(2) long term cluster
wave set 3 @ 1.618/1896.50 in the table (right side) produces the closet match to 1897.26, and it is a "good" (a subjective term) ratio.
I did not label the full wave hierarchy intentionally, this is due to there are technically meaningful debates among the E-wavers
Is the TOP behind behind us?
requires confirmation, such as to see a lower high, 50 SMA crosses below 200 SMA ... etc
E-wavers can be divided into two groups roughly, one is in favor of 1-2-3-4-5 ( or i-ii-iii-iv-v), currently in sub 4 ( or sub iv) of 3 (or iii). that means there are bullish waves to be followed (this is a very brief outline)
The other group is in favor of W-X-Y (or A-B-C). Two E-wavers give both bullish (1-2-3-4-5) and bearish (A-B-C) count.
chart sources:(randomly listed, no particular order, no bias)
(1) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=98864278
(2) http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
(3) http://marketweeklyupdate.com/2014/02/09/02092014-market-update/
(latest free access)
(4) http://jobjas.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/16.jpg
(web http://jobjas.wordpress.com/ )
(5) http://static.safehaven.com/authors/calissano/32870_i_large.png
(article http://www.safehaven.com/article/32870/spx-weekly-technical-and-elliott-wave-analysis )
(web http://www.safehaven.com/author/607/thewavetrading )