Saturday, March 15, 2014 1:00:27 PM
Looking at the longer term there are things to consider.
The question for any honest, unbiased analyst for several years has been, "Will there be one more leg down in the secular bear market that began in 2000?" A few say absolutely yes. Most say absolutely no. A smaller and smarter few lean one way or the other but recognize they could be proved incorrect.
The biased perma bulls would not even consider the possibility there is one more leg down in this secular bear. If there is one more leg down they will miss it just like they missed the last two tops in this bear. Prior to 2000 these perma bulls looked like geniuses but in reality they were just perma bulls in a bull market. Anybody who was a perma bull looked like a great market timer. The secular bear that began in 2000 exposed them for what they are. If the bull market continues higher they will crow once again.
hoping no one remembers the huge bear legs they missed.
The biased perma bears will not even consider the possibility the secular bear ended at 666 and there will be a continuing bull market lasting years into the future. If the secular bear is over, they will miss the continued bull just as they missed the first bull leg of the secular bear. They will stay on the sidelines or even worse, stay short, missing a real opportunity. They will year in and year out warn of absolute impending doom while the market pushes higher.
Both of these groups constantly practice "confirmation bias". Looking for anything that might bolster their position while rejecting, without thought, everything that opposes it.
IMO it is only prudent to recognize the possibility of both. Regardless of which you think is probable.
Do you realize that this is only the fourth secular bear market since 1871. See chart.
They all look a little different, don't they? Are you POSITIVE this one is over? Are you POSITIVE this one is not over? If you are positive, I hope you are right. One thing is for certain, not all of you who are certain are right.
I think we will know which is correct when we reach near 1650 a little later this year. For the time being both counts are due for a good correction. Still somewhere near 12%.from the top.
The question for any honest, unbiased analyst for several years has been, "Will there be one more leg down in the secular bear market that began in 2000?" A few say absolutely yes. Most say absolutely no. A smaller and smarter few lean one way or the other but recognize they could be proved incorrect.
The biased perma bulls would not even consider the possibility there is one more leg down in this secular bear. If there is one more leg down they will miss it just like they missed the last two tops in this bear. Prior to 2000 these perma bulls looked like geniuses but in reality they were just perma bulls in a bull market. Anybody who was a perma bull looked like a great market timer. The secular bear that began in 2000 exposed them for what they are. If the bull market continues higher they will crow once again.
hoping no one remembers the huge bear legs they missed.
The biased perma bears will not even consider the possibility the secular bear ended at 666 and there will be a continuing bull market lasting years into the future. If the secular bear is over, they will miss the continued bull just as they missed the first bull leg of the secular bear. They will stay on the sidelines or even worse, stay short, missing a real opportunity. They will year in and year out warn of absolute impending doom while the market pushes higher.
Both of these groups constantly practice "confirmation bias". Looking for anything that might bolster their position while rejecting, without thought, everything that opposes it.
IMO it is only prudent to recognize the possibility of both. Regardless of which you think is probable.
Do you realize that this is only the fourth secular bear market since 1871. See chart.
They all look a little different, don't they? Are you POSITIVE this one is over? Are you POSITIVE this one is not over? If you are positive, I hope you are right. One thing is for certain, not all of you who are certain are right.
I think we will know which is correct when we reach near 1650 a little later this year. For the time being both counts are due for a good correction. Still somewhere near 12%.from the top.
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