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Not DCVax Prostate I hope!
Averaging down only makes sense in these scenarios:
1. NWBO gets bought out for $1.00 or some other absurdly low price. All of us who bought most of our shares from $4.00 to $10.00 get screwed but we make money on whatever shares we bought at say 30 something cents.
2. NWBO proves out with DCVax L or Direct and recovers its former highs (with dilution ongoing those three figure prices some investors used to posit are increasingly less likely even in the best case scenario).
But in these scenarios averaging down, as you said, only compounds already dire losses:
1. Bankruptcy.
2. NWBO is bought out for a very cheap price per share, cheaper than we are now. This scenario is more likely than bankruptcy and given that NWBO has ignored every other basic standard of transparency and has never even heard of the concept of "conflict of interest" when it comes to Cognate, it seems to me that once retail is no longer willing to buy, Cognate could always pull the plug, "buy" NWBO and take it private. They won't be doing that for $1.00 a share FYI.
Given that Phase 1 is open label shouldn't we have heard that this transition was made (even if NWBO did not want to share data yet). That sure would have been encouraging news and would have provided some justification for the toxic financing beyond mere survival.
The protocol would contain interesting data from Phase 1 not Phase 2. My point is that since Phase 2 has not started it cannot, by definition have created new data.
Now Phase 2 being announced (with a concrete start date that is, otherwise its just more B.S.) that would be news but not data that we would already get from Phase 1 anyway.
How can there be data on Phase 2 when it hasn't started yet?
No webcast = no relevance. Not 100% true but close enough.
They should have announced the temporary hold and made it clear that while it was not for a bad reason, regulations would not allow them to disclose the reason in order to maintain the integrity of the trial.
Instead they hoped we wouldn't notice but as with all bad news, someone eventually uncovered it and put the worst possible spin on it.
Then compounding their error, they made some vague remarks about "turning good news into bad news" and clammed up on that point.
Well if by nature you mean the science, then I agree and that's the part I can accept and I think most of us could accept if we are just told more of the truth.
Hiding the truth is easier than facing scrutiny in the short run but in the long run it eats away at your credibility and support.
I know this from experience I've had supervising and manage people during layoffs or potential massive layoffs (kind of like man v. nature since whether or not it happens is beyond your control).
The way I handled the situation was to lay out the facts:
1. This what we know
2. This is what we don't know
3. This is when we are likely to know more
4. This is why that rumor you're asking me about really is just speculative.
5. This what will happen and what your rights are if your retention score indicates you will be demoted or laid off.
Those were not easy conversations, not at all.
I was compassionate but honest and let people vent to me. They knew I shared the risks and hardships along with them. Then I could help them focus on their daily work and they knew I'd be up front with them when I found something out.
By contrast, many managers and supervisors reacted to this situation by clamming up but that only increased employee anxiety in their branches or departments.
What I learned when dealing with a force of nature is that people want a sense of control over the uncontrollable and they can get that by at least knowing the real facts even if they can't change them. If you don't give them the real facts, then the rumor mill takes over and things get ugly.
I was able to help lead my team both when layoffs really happened (and I took a demotion along with others, some of whom were fired) and then later when it was just a scare and nobody got hurt.
In both cases everyone put forth the maximum effort accomplished their goals until the crisis was resolved one way or the other.
So you're right it is hard to deal with man v. nature but people skills at least make dealing with that easier.
I have invested in other companies at this stage and won some and lost some so you have a point as far as universal lack of transparency it goes.
But you said, yourself, NWBO "is extreme" compared to its peers in not holding conference calls.
We'll never be able to prove what would have happened if NWBO had behaved more like a normal company (even in this space).
But it is hard to believe things could be worse and it is equally hard to believe we would be only 30 cents from zero.
As far as not believing what NWBO "says about combination trials, I don't because NWBO never said it:
Instead, NWBO only mentioned conceptual partnerships with unnamed entities (which might not even be larger firms) and I have reason to be skeptical of this panning out for several reason:
1. NWBO only mentioned these conceptual partnerships when hard and clear bad news came out and they needed a distraction.
2. NWBO never named any of the parties involved or gave the least scrap of granularity on the substance of the partnerships.
3. NWBO has proven with HE and EAMS that talk is cheap.
Now it is true that Dr. Prins of UCLA not NWBO mentioned a partner or two (BMY if I'm not mistaken) but a lot like Dr. Liau's remarks abotu "patients living longer" you can put any interpretation on it and that partnership may only be between UCLA and the other company with no involvement with NWBO.
You're right that my greed plays into my interest in this company and greed mixed with altruism is a more potent combination than greed alone.
I got into this particular investment so heavily because it promised to let me make good money while helping effectively treat and maybe even cure cancer, a disease that has killed a lot of family members and friends. One of my high school science teachers came to school even when she was dying of cancer. I only wish that DCVax Direct had been there for her.
Heck I wish it were there for people now and seeing not just the personal loss of money hurts but also the fact that this promise will probably turn to nothing.
Thankfully, while I'm willing to gamble a bit more now and then, I save lots of money in other boring vehicles and I never tapped home equity etc. like some did.
Hey, people make mistakes but my problem is that NWBO can't level with us.
I guess Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman just figure if they quite talking about something that they can't finish, we'll just get the idea that it's a dead letter and they'll never have that awkward moment where they have to admit they messed up.
That strategy is fine for kids but these folks are corporate executives.
They are supposed to know better and do better.
I guess that's why we never hear and will probably never hear updates on:
1. DCVax Prostate Phase 3 (who long has a partnership been pending on that again?)
2. Whatever "approval" they had in Switzerland
3. Whatever they were doing in Israel
4. HE in Germany(as already mentioned)
5. EAMS in the UK
Now that is 5 things that at one time or another were considered a pretty big deal.
Israel and Switzerland are pretty obscure to most of us since most of us probably started in this stock in the last 3 years or less but still, that just shows how long this crap has been going on.
Well, that's why HE would have been nice. Early revenues sure would have helped in this situation. Too bad they fouled that up.
Real science news is the only thing that is going to attract institutional investors because no one cares about that investigation.
At most, proving that Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman are not total crooks removes one of several negatives from the table but it does not add a positive.
The reason for this is simple:
Those who are pro-NWBO management will point to an exoneration as valid.
Those who are NWBO management detractors will say that the investigation is rigged.
Those people who are neutral are going to see the same set of facts: a company which has made no discernible progress on anything in the last year and has nothing to show for it but more dilution.
Somehow I doubt that proving Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman are not just outright thieves is going to induce too many people to sign up to be stuck in an endless cycle of waiting for news, bitter disappointment and toxic financing.
Sure am.
Don't worry, "alternate date setting" is always a strategy you can use if nothing happens in September 2016.
Here is a preview of the arguments you'll likely see and can even use yourself:
1. We never really expected anything to happen in September 2016. For example: The date predicted for the end of the Phase 3 trial was just an estimate and the fact that the company and government never bothered to revise it before the "month of" is no big deal.
2. The fact that there is no news is a great thing because it gives us time to buy more shares cheaply and means that instead of going poorly, the Phase 3 is going really well and will produce results in the fullness of time (whenever that is).
3. Ms. Powers has lots of great news but has to wait on that investigation (which by the way is really about busting those evil shorts and not exonerating NWBO of the Phase V charges). By the way that investigation whenever it concludes will be a game-changer!
4. Serial toxic dilution in small amounts means that news is imminent even if it is just delayed a bit. After all if NWBO wanted to, they could just build a big cash runway that would build investor confidence. The fact that Neil Woodford stopped investing is meaningless. NWBO doesn't need a long cash runway because we're about to lift off! Honest.
I could go on, but I don't need to.
I hope we have a happy September 2016 as well but if I went by the track record of previous predictions, I expect nothing good to happen and probably something bad.
We'll see, and since I made a small bet weeks ago, I sill have a chance to win if the people talking up September 2016 are right this time after all.
Mr. Black needs to "cougher" up his conclusions. If it is taking that long to dismiss the Phase V allegations then they must be more substantive than everyone thought.
Don't you mean if the investigation is done? Surely it should not have taken almost a year to exonerate NWBO. I think they are either afraid to release the findings or slow walking the inquiry since an ongoing investigation is a cheap excuse to hold out on shareholders.
Trying to find a correlation between bashing posts or fake long posts and the advent of game changing news has always been wrong in the past.
Or rather, more aptly there is a pretty strong correlation between concern by longs and legitimate criticism by NWBO skeptics and further declines in share price.
When will this eventual conference call be?
High time if you're right. I'm looking forward to it.
Ha, if you believe some people "shorts" have been desperate to cover for two years!
The louder they talk the more desperate they are, or so we are told!
Instead everything the shorts have said would happen to this stock has happened except bankruptcy.
I know who is desperate when it comes to NWBO and based on objective reality it is not the shorts.
You do see the wiser heads already toning down expectations for news in September 2016.
I might pay more attention if NWBO promised to do a webcast, since historically presentations with webcasts tend to be more than simple rehashes. I've gambled a decent amount on NWBO doing something soon and the latest dilution already bit into that bet.
Definitely, though, we need to demand restraint so we never have situations where people are convinced that NWBO will do something "soon" to such an extent that they tap equity from their home to buy stock as some have advised us they've done.
I can only imagined how those people are feeling now. I only have a taste of it where I've seen tens of thousands of dollars of money I spent years saving collapse into just 3 thousand something or so.
The ends do not always justify the means and 20/20 hindsight is not needed to see that.
Regardless of whether Ms. Powers releases great news in September 2016 or not, what NWBO Management has done to their own shareholders over the last year is wrong.
You're right to raise B.S. as another issue with Sawston since Mad Cow disease in the UK has created a sometimes unreasonable concern about blood products from the UK. All those tough questions on the Blood Donor questionnaire about travel to the UK, and medical procedures in the UK are proof enough of that!
I hope you're right but again we should be hearing from NWBO on this not being forced to speculate ourselves. I do think it is real danger but not a guaranteed danger.
Oh, I misspoke that's right we get 2 to 10 years of uncertainty first and the a probable Brexit. You know how much investors like uncertainty right? If not you must have owned a different stock than I do.
Maybe but the EU is determined to punish the UK as an example to others and given that pharmaceutical products are heavily regulated, safety concerns provide a convenient excuse. Even when DCVax is an NHS "priority" as it supposedly was in the UK or HE was "authorized in Getmany we've seen how little that truly means and how glacial progress is even when bodies of people not given this treatment in time are piling up on the deck. Are you saying then that this Brexit won't complicate an already top heavy and inefficient system on both sides of the channel?
Well if Sawston is for the EU that whole Brexit is a real danger since Sawston is on the wrong side of the Channel. That is one issue even I cannot blame on Ms. Powers because while euroskepticism was on the rise few observers believed the UK would actually leave the EU. Even so, there we are.
It should not be hard for you to understand because NWBO should be clearly explaining what they are doing with assets like Sawston right now, tell us when it will be completed and advise us how it will help bring in revenue.
Given that, as you said, building this kind of manufacturing is highly unusual when they cannot even run the trials properly or get Phase 2 started without massively diluting shareholders with toxic financing, yes it is hard for you to understand.
But if you are an NWBO shareholder like me, you should not have to guess. You should be given this basic information about a major project as a matter of right.
End of story.
Ms. Powers is like Lucy and we're like Charlie Brown.
Every time we try to kick the football we end up on our a$$.
In light of this, it is easy to see that one can be long in terms of stock holdings and then long in terms of sentiment.
They are not the same thing.
We who actually have skin in the game are tired of "oh its a month away, its three months away, within the next year etc."
It's not a virus for more and more people to wake up and realize that nothing game changing is likely to happen in September 2016.
At most, just like they did when they had to announce that NASDAQ letter, NWBO will release some pseudo-good news to try and distract us.
So go ahead and put "long" in quotes and try and pretend that anyone who is wary, no not just wary, but sick and tired of getting tricked again like Charlie Brown is somehow a fake long.
But as time goes on, fewer and fewer people are going to buy into that "us vs them" nonsense.
If anybody tells you that regulations on publicly traded companies are strong enough then talk to them about what it is like to be an "owner" of NWBO.
No can deny that Ms. Powers and Mr Goldman are unaccountable to any shareholders even one as powerful as Neil Woodford.
You raise good points and basically as you said we are in a dire situation.
If we have had no solid positive news by the next shareholder's meeting I suspect it will be unpleasant because some tough questions will be asked even if they they are not answered.
Positive noises will not cut it because shareholders remember how NWBO management socked them with a massive dilution right after the last shareholder's meeting.
The next dilution will be marked for Phase 2. This last one was as well.
....it only hurts if you sell or it fails.
Everyone would rather hear news about the science than about an investigation confirming that NWBO did nothing wrong as that Phase V report alleges.
Since NWBO commissioned the investigation, NWBO supporters might choose to take it seriously and NWBO detractors won't.
Because of that, the investigation will have little impact assuming it is ever even completed (I put that possibility at 60% and that's being generous).
So really it is a waste of time except for the fact that it might give Neil Woodford cover to invest more. But that is a big maybe.
Big science news would also give Mr. Woodford cover to invest more.
A better strategy is to use continuances and other delaying strategies to delay the case until after the big news comes out.
No jury would support a plaintiff if NWBO is making news for effectively treating cancer. Everyone has lost someone to cancer.
That delaying strategy would let them keep shareholders informed and willing to load the boat at these prices instead of leaving us in the dark about the company we ostensibly own.
The only problem with that strategy?
It will not work if no good news is coming.
So the fact that NWBO's court strategy suggests no news is coming or at least coming in the foreseeable future should raise concerns.
Let's say this goes up to $2.00 and we miss the 30 cents price? So what? If it goes up to $2.00 with news that virtually guarantees a great outcome, then it will eventually be going to $20.00 and then maybe much higher.
By waiting, we can buy in with a LOT LESS RISK and still enjoy huge profits.
But we shouldn't have to wait because Mr. Goldman could serve shareholders by recognizing two things:
1. Even if Mr. Feuerstein can knock down the price, history has shown that silence does not buoy it either. So shareholders should be informed so that we can be encouraged and despite what the rest of the world thinks, buy more. That is a way of rewarding us.
2. Those lawsuits will be defeated if NWBO actually produces an effective cancer treatments. Any half way competent lawyer can drag out a case past a certain point or even wear plaintiffs down. So just make sure it goes to trial after September 2016 (that is when something is going to happen right?") No jury would vote for a plaintiff that stands in the way of saving lives, not when NWBO can show they were telling the truth the whole time.
Really? You mean like the ones stuff in Switzerland and Israel NWBO refuses to talk about?
NWBO made a deal with itself that if it shut up, maybe Mr. Feuerstein would be nice and quit picking on them.
I warned on here a year ago that this would not work and that the attacks would continue.
I was right about that and we are now hovering around 30 cents a share.
Mr. Feuerstein was never able to achieve anything close to a 90% share price drop when NWBO actually talked to its own shareholders.
There is no way, mathematically that things could be worse if they kept communicating since many shareholders, knowing the truth, would have kept investing instead of holding back, which in turn would have made any manipulation harder to sustain and harder to hide.
But NWBO has done his work for him despite an initial promise to keep releasing information to us "undeterred" after Buzdargate.
But go ahead and make excuses for them.
Maybe when we get down to 20 cents you'll argue that a change back to a more successful strategy is in order.
Read "When Prophecy Fails" as I suggested before. It will explain everything you are seeing here.
NWBO does not even need to hire paid pumpers.
True believers desperate to validate their faltering belief by convincing others will do the work for them.
Any concerns can and should be solved with a lot more transparency on all issues Ms. Powers can legally talk about.
There is no excuse for example, for not clearly updating us on Sawston. Unless you're going to argue that they are just bumbling along like the hapless renovators in Mr. Blanding Builds a Dream House or the Money Pit, then they know what they are doing at Sawston and could simply share their plans and progress with the owners of the company. There would be no impact on the blinded Phase 3 trial or anything like that.