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Happy about my work not so happy about NWBO.
Hopefully that signal isn't those 500,000...err...500 shares people just got so excited about.
You have a more positive view of what he is saying than I do. I think Mr. Smith might be the one designated to help acclimate us to the idea that Phase 3 will not reach its endpoint. Remember how Ms. Powers used to brag about the Phase 3 trial allowed the addition of patients but never said she was actually trying to do it until it was a fait accompli? Well given that Mr. Smith is often viewed as a mouthpiece for NWBO that could be what is happening here.
I hope I am wrong but we should find out more by month's end.
Larry Smith wrote a pretty bearish article here. He's all but saying that NWBO will be reduced to torturing subsets of patients to try to salvage something from the trial.
I hope Mr. Smith is wrong and that whatever update Ms. Powers offers is a positive game changer.
Also, he spends most of his time complaining about some "Wolfpack" but does not name any specific company or individual. Now why is that? Could be be afraid of getting sued when he is unable to substantiate any of these serious allegations.
Without some specific evidence, I could just as easily claim a coven of witches caused the fall of NWBO.
We all have the Freedom to Read (or not read). You and your preferences and for my part I choose to skip over the endless, rambling and repetitive scientific arguments over whether or not L has failed because so many assumptions have to be made to fill in the lacunae in the data and incomplete enrollment information that most projections are "garbage in, garbage out."
Given how dense those posts are and given how they are loaded up with more technobabble than an entire season of Star Trek I normally leave them alone.
But I seldom feel constrained to swing by and tell them they're wasting time because even though they expend a lot more effort on those posts then I do and for as little or as much benefit in the end, it makes them and their readers happy.
Plus who knows, maybe one of the armchair scientists is right.
After all it was a janitor who discovered Pluto!
Disagreeing with the point does not mean I missed it. Historically, groups under stress feel the need to blame shadowy conspiracies for their problems instead of looking closer to home:
In medieval and early modern Europe when cows gave sour milk and children sickened and died, people blamed witches who they said were part of a demonic conspiracy.
In Stalin's Soviet Union, the accidents caused by doing a rush job on industrialization with roughly educated engineers and technicians was blamed on "wreckers" who were in the service of a shadowy league of of foreign powers seeking to destroy the first communist country.
In the first half of the twentieth century many Germans did not want to believe that Germany lost World War 1 because it bit off more than it could chew by fighting a war on two fronts and thus convinced themselves that Germany only lost because of "a stab in the back" by an malign conspiracy of socialists and Jews.
In all three cases good and decent people bought into these conspiracies and ascribed ulterior motives to other people because it was easier than admitting that their systems had funadmental problems that need to be solved.
Well NWBO has fundamental problems too and the NASDAQ remediation announcement is a first step in that direction hopefully one of many.
Sure some amount of manipulation may occur and I have argued with Pyrr that it does.
But is it the primary factor here?
No
Is there truly a grand conspiracy against NWBO?
No.
If you want to explain why our price is in the 30 cent range, look closer to home.
I'll be happy with Direct data as long as it is a real update and not just one or two case studies.
I think NWBO is going to miss the September 2016 benchmark for finishing Phase 3 of L and even many of the "no scandals in wartime" longs are admitting that now.
But as long as we get some real, solid information on DCVax Direct, I'll regard it as a successful update.
The widespread ignorance in the medical profession about DCVax is exactly why I have consistently hammered NWBO management for having virtually no PR and IR operation to speak of.
Share price is by far the most visible and immediately hurtful aspect of this failure but in the long run it may not be the biggest issue.
Some people believe that NWBO has been reaching out behind the scenes but your remark suggests that these efforts are not having a great impact and that even if we get approval, we will start from square one in getting doctor buy-in.
That is a problem because we both know at least one immunotherapy company that got approval from the FDA and still went under.
If Ms. Powers is delaying finalizing negotiations with Big Pharma on Direct, until Phase 3 is decided then she is putting all of our eggs in the DCVax L basket.
So if DCVax L Phase 3 fails, fairly or unfairly, rightly or wrongly, wouldn't Ms. Powers be wishing then that she still had the negotiating position she has now?
That is the opposite of her stated strategy of having multiple ways to win and it carries a big risk.
If trash talking NWBO were a truly a sign of "desperation" and imminent game-changing news, then we'd have all been rich 2 years ago!
And if I had $1,000 dollars for everyone who said that here and on YMB back when I was there, I could buy a Rolls Royce.
Severity and duration of dilution is why that might not help.
To give you an idea of why this is an important factor, ask yourself this question:
How much are the people who invested back in 2001 or 2002 going to make off of NWBO even in the best case scenario?
Now an obvious solution for us is to invest more money at these prices, to average down.
But while I will buy some more because it is now plain that some kind of update will be announced in a few days, I call it a gamble. So does my online broker who is making me wait 3 days to buy a stock as troubled as NWBO.
Manipulation does not have to take place 100% of the time. Obviously during periods of no news, the manipulators do not need to do anything because, as you said, horrible rounds of financing etc. will do their work for them.
Active manipulation would normally be employed only to put an artificial ceiling in the face of good news and Feuerstein articles would be used as "cover" to make the failure of normal price appreciation seem legitimate. I do not know whether Feuerstein is actively coordinating with short interests as some claim here or not, but the effect is the same.
That's fine if you believe that the P3 has failed. If you believe it is still viable then you cannot offer a price target because you don't know what this month's DCVax update will concern etc. Probably it concerns Direct Phase 1 and 2 and if L is omitted then it is easy for the manipulator a to have free reign especially without Neil Woodford to keep them at bay.
Anyone offering a price target for NWBO on either side is just pulling numbers out of their posterior.
It is all driven by many potential events whose timing we cannot reasonably predict.
So setting price targets is doing it backwards.
What do you think will happen by months end?
What do you think will happen in Q4 2016?
Answer those questions and then you can start talking about prices.
One last gamble? That's what we're all really asking ourselves!
I'm sticking around for several reasons:
1. I still largely believe that DCVax L and Direct work. That is not the same thing as believing that NWBO will survive long enough to realize that potential but I still like the science even though all my information is out of date.
2. I still like Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman even though I am very put out with them over their lack of communication and very tough on them. But look at 30 cents a share they've been tough on me.
3. We are all in too deep now to quit and I believe that while any chance of "honest riches" is off the table we could still come out of this with our whole skin, a hefty profit and the satisfaction of having helped other people.
We've lost so much that BK is worth risking if it means we still have a chance to win it all back and maybe still make a good profit. So no I doubt this is capitulation. Anyone who was going to quit would have run away long ago.
Encouraging: notice how they said "updates" and just said DCVax without saying L or Direct. Are they being lazy or is this a suggestion we'll be getting updated on both L and Direct?
Yes but since she could do a PR and filing, 5 right before she mounts the podium, yes it is an exclusive update.
Cognate's decision is encouraging and I think it causes their interest to align better with ours since they face the same dilution we do.
Now we are both interested in quicker decision since a faster decision means less dilution and more profits at the end.
So where before Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman were being a little too careful they are now more likely to "not let the perfect be the enemy of the good enough."
Before NASDAQ intervened, Cognate's long term profits, (assuming DCVax works) were not imperiled by these delays and as long as NWBO didn't go under they benefited in some ways by slow walking things.
Now, while Cognate might get more cash via dilution instead of accepting shares, they still get hurt by delays.
So now I think our incentives are more aligned and that is better for everyone and the way things should be.
I'll take that division of labor!
This reminds us NWBO must get 'er done or get left behind because other companies are continuing to innovate and as we've seen here, this treatment also has no side effects. It's early days but the point remains. NWBO needs to start putting points up on the board.
Maybe Neil Woodford spoke to NASDAQ about the relationship between Cognate and NWBO and since the protection Cognate enjoyed again dilution caused his stake to be diminished along with ours, perhaps he did that to, as you say "protect his investment."
But while he benefits from yesterdays news, that does not mean that he is behind it.
So based on his observable behavior in the last year, Neil Woodford has done little but let his existing stake in NWBO vanquish.
That Phase V report would have been regarded as "black helicopter" conspiracy stuff until Neil Woodford gave it his imprimatur by demanding an investigation on the basis of those allegations.
That was hardly a move calculated to protect his investment.
Similarly, unless you believe the NDA story, there is nothing preventing Neil Woodford from buying shares.
Remember that if he waits for all of the news on P3, investigations, partnerships and everything else to come out, the great investment opportunity (if that is what we are in) will be gone because everyone will realize that NWBO is a good investment.
So based on all of that, I would say Neil Woodford is no longer that interested in NWBO and is content to let his existing shares ride but that's about it.
Hopefully they have made strides in the manufacturing. That would certainly explain the cash burn rate!
You have a point there, but maybe the reason they are willing to give up the anti-dilution provision is that they are expecting a lot less dilution going forward.
We got no pop because while some existing dilution has been eliminated, financing remains as big an issue as it ever has been, so unless we suddenly hear a partnership that will bring in revenue announced or HE suddenly shows up on our quarterly report, we are going to see more dilution that will wipe out this temporary benefit. That is not to mention the fact that if even Cognate steps back like Woodford after having to make so many concessions, even MORE toxic financing will be required. I do not see Cognate stepping back and think their concessions might be a positive sign that the end of this long journey is almost over but who knows?
They should have covered long ago PR or no PR, especially now with only 34 cents to go before zero.
If you're small fry, you can sell out anytime without triggering a short squeeze so is it really worth it to hang around hoping that NWBO will just go BK?
If us hanging around at $10.00 was a dumb decision when we should have taken some of our winnings off the table then than goes 100x for anyone in this stock who is still shorting.
The benefits to shorts in this scenario do not outweight the risks, not with a maximum profit of just 34 cents a share left to gain.
Cognate might believe that NWBO is about to make them so much money on their existing shares that they can afford to make all of these concessions just to resolve the NASDAQ issue. We can only hope that if they do believe that (and with Ms. Powers heading up Cognate, they would be in a position to know, not just believe), that they're right.
Nothing NWBO can do short of releasing game-changing news on the science front that gets national coverage is going to trigger a short squeeze. We've run up as high as $10.00 without so much as a hint of a short squeeze.
So even if we get one, it will be bonus money that will help us attain heights sooner that we would have attained later anyway.
Excellent. At least we have some clarity on the NASDAQ front!
"If you're in a horror movie, you make poor decisions. It's what you do."
Well Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman are like the teenagers in that GEICO commercial and are hiding behind the chainsaws instead of jumping in the running car.
It is a lot harder for Big Pharma (and probably the FDA) to stab NWBO to death in broad daylight than in a dark alley.
Publicity is light and with the Cancer Moonshot going on, it being around the Stand Up to Cancer telethon, Breast Cancer Awareness coming up in October, there are plenty of chances to get the DCVax, no toxicity, no real side effects, high efficacy story out there.
I think our DCVax Direct data has matured enough by now or whatever excuse people here used to make for not deploying it.
Not easy but they are paid big bucks to handle PR and make contacts in the media, investing and political worlds.
Or they can keep hiding behind the chainsaws.
Don't worry, I'm sure investors who want to will come up with something to set a new date if nothing happens this month.
If there is real news the time of the year won't matter. If there is no real news, any positive sucker's run up will not save our investment. Once I gave up on any hope of a short squeeze I quit worrying about things like this.
The Information Arm is not blinded and neither is DCVax Direct so no excuse for dodging there especially when the owners of the company have lost most of what they invested.
Q4 is near the end with December being the end. Q3 is not and September is in Q3. We'll just have to see what happens.
Actually it's been NWBO dodging facts and results not Mr. Giordino. We'll see if they open up a little this month like the hype suggested.
Classic NWBO: Not September 2016 for end of Phase 3 but now late 2016 which of course means January or February 2017!
Wow! I wonder what excuse people will come up with when NWBO doesn't announce the end of Phase 3 by the close of Feb. 2017.
People are saying great post and sadly it is probably an accurate vision of what will happen with Phase 3: if we're lucky. Personally I would be shocked if we were still waiting on Phase 3 results in September 2017. We sure as heck will be waiting on approval.
Your satire is worthy of Jonathan Swift and a lesson to those tempted to trot out technical analysis.