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You do realize that you are now almost certainly subject to inside information trading restrictions until that information is made to the public right?
I'm trying to avoid getting my hopes up. Unless and until we get actual news, watching these day-to-day changes in the stock is like watching the NFL Preseason games. They are kind of fun but get old pretty quickly.
It might rise some but in stages because if there really is market manipulation I expect to see it come out full force on Monday to keep this stock from skyrocketing.
Remember that if they (whoever they is) do have to exercise those warrants then they are also strengthening NWBO by pumping money into it. Yes we will get diluted but that is already baked in the cake.
It took some integrity for our friend to voluntarily submit to insider trading restrictions which will prevent him from exiting or adding to his position until this information he and the company and FDA knows becomes public knowledge.
We'll get news but on Direct first not L since L is blinded until the trial concludes. The only exception might be something from the Information Arm.
That is not the fault of the scientists themselves though which is what I thought you were saying. I see we are not that different in our opinion then at least as far as respecting the scientists.
The easiest solution would be for government to forgo one or two boondoggle projects and fund cancer research better through grants but that would be too much to hope for.
Who developed knowledge of dendritic cells in the first place? Enough said.
I'll correct the typo. Remember that back then they couldn't even write the lower case "s" properly.
Cofer Black can clear NWBO of wrongdoing and then announce a broader investigation into the naked shorting.
Making exoneration wait is a disservice to shareholders, assuming of course that everything Mr. Black will reveal is truly exculpatory.
It is always possible that he is going to have to criticize NWBO management, in which case, he will want to be able to point the finger at other people too and by broadening his mandate past merely investigating the Phase V allegations, he can delay releasing a critical finding and also soften that blow by being able to make evidence based allegations against shorts and hedge funds etc.
That "or" really is the operative word.
I still think that investigation is just an excuse not to talk and not a legitimate exercise in its own right.
I mean, come on! If NWBO releases big science news, no one is going to care about those year-old Phase V allegations.
If the investigation was really being used to clear NWBO's name and get people like Neil Woodford back in play as investors then they would have concluded it months ago.
Likewise, if they are experiencing "mission creep" and wasting time chasing Big Foot's naked shorting operation they could always clear NWBO's name in one report and then keep digging and release a report about the shorts down the line.
There is no reason to take this long just to prove NWBO is honest.
So every day that passes makes it clearer and clearer that the purpose is just to be able to say, or rather, enable NWBO management apologists to say "Sorry but it is not possible to talk while an investigation is going on."
Good point, any science news is probably going to be more tied to the conference so Flipper is probably right about the timing.
I just hope that even if NWBO does not do a proper PR or a webcast, that at least they put the PowerPoint on the NWBO website.
Despite what some people are saying, it is hard to believe that this month will pass without some kind of significant update.
And I must say that it is nice to be talking about things that will happen within the next two weeks instead of vague stuff like "oh in a month or two" or "before the end of the year."
Everyone here is somewhat greedy or we'd just donate to cancer research and call it a day.
I did my Due Diligence when I first invested but keeping your due diligence up to date is just as important as the research you initially perform.
So when the flow of information from NWBO management was reduced to a trickle and then shut off entirely that was problematic.
Given that I bought in the $6.00 range and only averaged down in the $1.00 range and the sub $.50 range I am also one of those who will probably make less (if NWBO proves out) than those who jump in at the last minute.
But that's fine! At this point I would almost (the operative word being almost) be happy just to make my money back.
Hey, DimondJim September 16th is today! Well even if nothing comes out no one should hold it against you because at least you made a specific prediction and did it by piecing together some pretty specific information.
I hope you're right but don't be shocked if this trial's end date doesn't magically get backed up another six months or year. Just saying based on painful experience.
Yes but if there really is overwhelming demand, she can raise all the money you want and lease capacity as needed. Or if NWBO lacks the funds to build manufacturing, the product can be licensed to someone who can and we still profit handsomely.
Risking everything to try to meet worldwide demand on a shoestring budget not only risks our money it also risks preventing DCVax L or Direct from surviving to get to market at all.
Remember though that we have no idea if we are really 10 weeks away from anything or not because of prior delays with Phase 3 and this screening halt which was never adequately explained. That is an important factor to keep in mind in explaining why our share price is so low.
That WAS the dream we all had. And financially still have, since I have sold not one share and invested more in this price range. We'll see what happens!
Here's the thing I don't get:
Why can't Ms. Powers lay out in clear terms the advantages, as you did? Credible companies explain their general strategy to shareholders.
When you do something unconventional like fund a real estate investment when your company cannot even afford to start Phase 2 trials, that kind of decision should entail more explanation not less.
The conference organizers did not use scare quotes when they talked about updates.
Look, truthfully, NWBO has done bait and switch before and if you want to believe that in this dire situation, just to pump it up a nickel or ten cents a share they'll be dumb enough to destroy the last shred of confidence anyone has in them by pulling the same crap again, then go and ahead and believe that.
I prefer to believe that one way or another the Phase 3 trial has to come to end and that on other fronts the financials alone, thanks to the NASDAQ mandated reform will FORCE NWBO to come clean one way or the other since they have run out of road and the can has been kicked into an unrecognizable lump of aluminum.
The "some reason" you mentioned is in large part because the NASDAQ took a lot of the sweetness out of the deal for Cognate, which used to get MFN status including anti-dilution protection, things none of us get.
Ms. Powers has obligations to Cognate stakeholders too, and now buying NWBO is as risky for them as it has ALWAYS been for us.
So you raise a decent point as far as it goes.
But if we get indisputably positive news, these problems go away overnight.
I am less negative about things because the true issue with this company - lack of transparency - seems about to go away.
Now if September 30, 2016 comes and goes without a real update, then you will be right.
I did not hedge because I believe that unless the conference organizers are flat out lying we will get some kind of what was it? Oh yes an "exclusive update" on DCVax this month.
And whether NWBO likes it or not, there will have to be a regulatory filing if not also a PR on that update.
Now if I am a fool for taking the public announcements of conference organizers at face value, then I am a fool.
So the question is not if something will be said but how significant it will be and what impact it will have.
Personally I think we'll get a nice DCVax Direct update and that's about it:
No partnerships
No DCVax L (except maybe a little Information Arm)
Just some updated science and that's about it.
Will that be enough to get us out of the Sargasso Sea? Who knows?
I'm betting it will but I didn't have to bet too much to make some big money.
Look until NWBO PR's big news any burst upward will be ephemeral and "gravity" will naturally take over. We get that and if a few people want to worry about going to .60 for 5 minutes then let them.
Only great news will make a permanent improvement.
You believe it is not coming but many of us are starting to think at least something is likely.
We'll see who's right by month's end.
The conference abstract speaks far louder than Les and the presentation will be louder still.
Back when I was more optimistic I compared Linda Powers to the Little Red Hen.
To your friends and family that could be you. Though if you are proven right just be a better winner than the Little Red Hen and be more generous with your riches (though not stupid). Sharing is a much more satisfying "I told you so."
Given how many shares I could get for $600 I would not find such a large volume as impressive as I would have say, this time last year.
As excited as you are it could be that one conference presentation will be a recap of another. Granted I've placed two bets on news coming out and so far those are my only shares in the green so I want to get carried away as you are. But those other shares of NWBO, the ones in the red, they tell me to not get my hopes up quite so far.
That is why in the wee hours of the morning on the day of the conference you'll probably see a PR summing up the significant new information that will be revealed at the conference. In this way the regulation can be satisfied. NWBO has done that before. Hopefully we also get a webcast.
Without game changing news or a stream of smaller updates to keep NWBO in flight, then gravity takes over.
If there is no hit piece it might. Expect a hit piece.
Okay, so who would actually demand the share back then?
In that scenario whoever extended the loan to the naked short had a goal other then making profits in which case, they could always forgive the loan, which would mean that the naked short might not have to cover.
Bought 1,200 NWBO shares at 43 cents a share this morning. Good decision! I would have bought cheaper but the funds have to be held 3 days or so in your account before you are allowed to buy a stock as beat up as NWBO or so it is at my broker!
Odds of news are better than 50/50 unless the conference organizers are flat out lying when they say that Ms. Powers is going to provide an exclusive update about DCVax. Now how significant that update is will be a shoe rate matter. But some kind of science news is almost certain this month from NWBO.
Mathematically anyone can demonstrate that we have dropped far farther and more consistently during this period of no transparency than during the period of partial transparency that preceded it.
A price drop following truly positive news is a buying opportunity. Few of us were angry at NWBO management back when they were communicating better and blamed any such price drops after positive PRs on stock manipulation.
Phraseology matters especially with NWBO management which releases such limited information and which consists of lawyers to boot. With litigation happening the lawyers running NWBO are probably being very careful in choosing to describe how close we are to completion. They could have said "nears completion" but chose not to.
Larry Smith complains about lacking information but digging up information is what professionals do.
It is not as if opportunities were not there:
How come he didn't ask some questions about the Linda Liau video like Adam Feuerstein did? Since Smith is known to be sympathetic to NWBO he might have gotten more answers than Feuerstein, a known NWBO foe could have obtained.
How come he does not as professionals do, make public records requests from the US, UK, and German governments? He could not get everything especially about DCVax L Phase 3 itself but there may be more that would come out than he thinks
How come he does not call NWBO and ask for a more specific answer on some important questions?
Even if Smith restricts himself to questions he knows NWBO can legally answer there would be the potential to get some real answers.
Remember that even if NWBO says No Comment to each specific question, that is still newsworthy. Right now, because the media will not engage them and they will not engage the media they are getting a pass.
But instead, Larry Smith who is a professional in this business, acts like he is no more or less capable than a message board denizen.
He wants to write for the public but basically repeats what we have been saying on here for years (off and on in my case).
Agreed, though Smith admitted he was speculating and reiterated that point. What do you think of my notion that he is possibly telegraphing what is going to happen on behalf of NWBO? Haven't we heard somewhere before that he has more than an arm's length relationship with that company?
We'll see when the market opens Monday! I'm hoping for big gains. I'd rather have NWBO start recovering now for sure and just go ahead miss out on a few more weeks of "buying opportunity." I'm sure there will be those who claim that they love this uncertainty (since no uncertainty, no cheap stock). But I think most people who bought at very prices have put down pretty much everything they're willing to risk. It's time for us to find out one way or another just how smart or stupid we were.