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NWBO has been pretty lousy at accomplishing things it must do, but yes no excellent news by January 2017 would leave the company at risk of bankruptcy or a buyout at these price levels or lower, something disastrous for real long term shareholders who bought back when this kool-aid was selling for more than $5.00 a glass.
I think that DCVax L and DCVax Direct are worthwhile but that this ramshackle Phase 3 trial has serious issues and mistakes on several other key fronts have made it likely that whatever financial benefits that DCVax will offer will likely accrue to someone other than most current shareholders.
Unless a miracle happens and "soon" or "any day" we're out of luck.
You're making NWBO shareholders sound like crash test dummies.
Too bad DCVax doesn't work on Hurricanes.
We're looking at where I live, no worse Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane force winds.
Naturally I feel worse for my family farther up the coast and the folks in Haiti, the DR and Cuba.
No matter what, there is never a Moment of Truth with NWBO. Any other company would at least give some meaningful information on When to expect news at the next shareholders meeting even if they cannot promise What to expect.
What chance is there really of game-changing news by December 31, 2016?
Not much and for good reason.
I would say the chance is much higher except for the fact that NWBO has both wittingly and unwittingly raised and dashed expectations so many times that we have to factor in this history of overpromising and underdelivering (or not delivering) whenever we try to project what will happen on either the stock price or the science.
Then we have our answer. There is too little capital left in this NWBO investment left for Mr. Woodford to buy something else. Ironically Mr. Woodford is in the same leaky boat we are.
NWBO would have to allow him to do that and with MFN off the table Mr. Woodford would end up with a huge ownership percentage if he invests any significant amount of money. That would give him a greater ability to impose accountability on Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman and they have always assiduously avoided submitting to anything resembling normal standards of corporate governance.
It is possible that Ms. Powers has recognized she cannot go it alone as she boasted and needs that mere "checkbook" she once derided but I find that unlikely.
I don't think so either but we should really be looking at what kinds of taxable gains Mr. Woodford might want to realize and then offset before we go around saying he has no incentive to sell.
Instead we must ask if Mr. Woodford's benefit from holding (or buying) outweighs the benefit he would get from selling.
I hope you're right but how many times have we read too much into scraps of information and connected the dots about NWBO, only to have Ms. Powers erase everything we just drew?
A tax loss would be a benefit of selling for Mr. Woodford. Many traders wait until the last minute at the end of the tax year to take their losses and offset their gains but there is no rule that requires that.
Exactly. We need something real. Not pre-market or after hours but during hours where it counts and can maybe, just maybe build a chain reaction, that can get NWBO back in the news since NWBO cannot accomplish that on its own.
I would like to see Neil Woodford get involved again. That would create news whether NWBO management likes it or not.
He can buy all those shares in the float and with MFN for Cognate off the table it might make sense for him to step in, where before buying more must have seemed like a sucker's bet.
Good comparison NWBO is worth less than half of that.
If NWBO wants more prestigious analysts to cover them, they could always behave like a normal company and do conference calls and otherwise be transparent with stakeholders.
Until that happens they'll get second or third tier analysts like Mr. Feuerstein.
NWBO's choice.
NWBO is dropping because investors have been reminded about the serious corporate governance issues of NWBO which remain (mostly) unresolved.
This would be a good moment for NWBO to update us on their investigation.
"We've made some calls!"
Assuming it has not been pulled down, visit YouTube and watch the Red Chip report on NWBO from several years ago. This was pay for play coverage that Ms. Powers bought specifically to spread the idea that NWBO was on the verge of doing great things.
Too bad that dilution is inevitable while good news most certainly is not.
If nothing else a reverse split makes all that "dilution" real and shows in graphic terms how much our position has been eroded by these long delays.
And as I said it will also confirm that without investing yet more money in what is a very risky stock, any chance of making truly big money is now off the table because of the dilution.
So the fact that if we only have say 10,000 shares and it goes up to $20.00 we make less money than we would have made if we had 20,000 shares of NWBO does not make sense?
Given that much of the share price of a company is based upon speculation and not real valuations, having fewer shares when the balloon goes up hurts investors.
Now if we were in a perfectly rational market where share prices truly reflected the actual valuation of the company, well then yes, you might be right in saying that NWBO going through a reverse split is not a negative or positive thing.
You say soon but will you define "soon" in concrete terms for us?
Now multiply 1 million shares by $20.00 a share and compare the result with what you get when you multiply 500,000 shares by $20.00 a share.
A reverse split is neutral now but you feel the pain down the road when even a high share price does not result in life changing money.
Once that reverse split happens many current investors might decide the Emperor has no clothes and that is why raising up the specter of a reverse split will result in immediate challenges.
A reverse split is not neutral or it would not be necessary and would serve no purpose.
Why waste time and money doing something that has zero impact?
The NASDAQ basically mandates reverse splits by requiring a minimum listing price. They would not do that if reverse splits were not meaningful operations that had an impact on companies and investors.
Now if you want to argue that a reverse split is good for us then by all means make that argument.
But to say that it is just a neutral operation makes no sense and the majority of investors who dread reverse splits and like normal stock splits agree with me.
The NASDAQ resolution only took care of part of them problem:
We are still primed to get hammered by a reverse split if we cannot get our share price over $1.00. But that is a medium term problem.
In the short run:
Ongoing dilution prevents us from bottoming out and unless we get real, game-changing news and/or the prospect of partnership (forget about HE) revenue soon, that dilution will perforce, take us back into the 32 cent share price range.
It is inevitable because at the 50 cent level any financing has a severe impact on shareholders especially when you tack on toxic elements like warrants.
So now that September 2016 is behind us and not clear milestones are ahead, this stock has no momentum.
Remember that anyone who knows NWBO knows that Linda Powers has already loaded up that milestone and hauled it an entire year down the road once.
Don't be shocked if another unforced delay happens again.
Arguably such a delay is happening as we speak and we just haven't been told yet.
They said that the screening halt might have pushed the Phase 3 by a month but how binding was that estimate.
So you expect NWBO's share price to just about double in October 2016?
Bold prediction. With pretty much nothing sustainable happening for us in September 2016 despite the release of some data I'll believe it when I see it - and hopefully make money when I do.
What you are saying is why most investors are holding onto their lotto tickets.
But remember that in Russian roulette you only pull the trigger once and that is all the shorts are doing.
For now they are in the money and can exit at any time: without pulling the trigger.
This is a binary deal and the trigger is not pulled for the shorts until NWBO either:
1. NWBO goes bankrupt or is bought out for less than the shorts paid (an empty chamber in the revolver). Click
2. NWBO proves out and the price skyrockets into double digits and stays there (a drive to $6.00 - $10.00 is not enough to trigger a short squeeze as we saw last time to our disappointment). Click BANG.
Of course I am hoping for #2 but expecting #1.
1. NWBO is not being alarmist when they point out that the very real danger that NWBO may not be able to continue as "a going concern" in their own regulatory filings.
That kind of "alarmist" language is mere boilerplate - until its not and when it is not, it will happen very suddenly, far more suddenly than that short squeeze so often crowed about which never happens.
2. How many months will three or four more financing buy us? Not many. So talk of the real possibility of bankruptcy is not premature, by your own logic. That is especially true for people who do not already have skin in the game and could walk away now, with no losses.
3. Reread my post, I pointed out, the possibility that Phase 3 has already failed and specifically stated that I that it was not necessarily the case but only a factor that anyone investing in NWBO must consider.
I did not state that the Phase 3 trial had failed. If I believed was a certainty than I still have several thousand dollars left that I could save.
Anyone who wants to invest in NWBO should regard it as a lotto ticket that benefits cancer research instead of state education programs.
When and if the Phase 3 will successfully conclude are the key issues.
NWBO's cash position is so bad that they cannot keep kicking the can down the road much longer.
I know that this has been said before, but now NWBO is at less than a dollar a share.
Something has to give.
So the when here really, really matters. It will do us no good if NWBO has been bought out for a song or if it goes bankrupt and in either case we get cut out of the winnings.
And of course you have the possibility that Phase 3 has already failed and that NWBO is just going to, what was the term one person used? "Torture data out of sub-groups" hoping to find something relevant.
New data from the Information Arm which consists of patients too sick to be counted in the main Phase 3 but who got the same treatment would have been reassuring.
But that was not forthcoming even though it is not and I repeat, not blinded.
So while I do not believe that Phase 3 has necessarily failed and we might get data any day, any day does not mean it is imminent but could mean a year from now or never. That has been and will likely remain the case.
Except for the fact that we've heard that over and over again, I'd be encouraged by the notion that this price action somehow indicates that real, game-changing news is imminent.
So in comparing NWBO to DNDN what you're seemingly saying is, take money off the table if we get a monster sized gain because even after approval we could still go to zero.
Based upon NWBO's prior history, I would say that mid 2017 is indeed when we should reasonably expect news but reality and what we should expect are not the same thing.
In reality game changing news will somehow get delayed until late 2017 to never.
NWBO could have dissected the data themselves by doing more than a poster presentation. They choose venues where there is no webcast.
When you slip a paper under the professor's door at the last minute, or as in NWBO's case (after several extensions) you should expect it to get dissected more than normal.
Doing a poster presentation in this time and place instead of a full-on talk with Q&A is the equivalent to turning in work at the last minute instead of handing it in during class.
Expect real scrutiny.
Experience has taught me about the relative importance of after hours trading for NWBO. How many times do we have to read too much into that or Level 2 or anything like that before we learn our lesson?
Worrying about the results of after hours training is akin to worrying about NFL preseason games.
I know that unsustainable gains are fleeting from hard experience. I consider anything short of game changing news a bust.
And yet we're the only ones who seem to know this is certain?
So that is a yes then, September 2016 was a bust though naturally good news is just around the corner. Again.
Any other catalysts or is September 2016 pretty much a bust?
This is a pretty positive outlook. With the end of the MFN for Cognate I am hoping Ms. Powers/Cognate now have incentive to push the Fast Forward button on Phase 3 and on partnership negotiations.
Actually, they did not lay everything bare. As Mr.Feuerstein pointed out, there is a lot of specific information about the patients etc. that is missing even though it is an open label trial and NWBO has all of that information.
When you cherry pick what you put out, expect a tough result. NWBO can post what it wants on its website even if the poster needs to be a mere summary.
When are we getting Top Line results on Direct Phase 1 again?