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We'll see but if I had $100 for every time I've heard talk of a "big gap up" that never comes I would not be in the red on my NWBO investment.
If the trial truly ends in November 2016, NWBO needs to say so, at the time it happens and they can always say analysis will take X amount of time.
But we at least need to know that the fight is over and the referees are going over the cards.
That much they can do and should do because first because it is time for them to do right by shareholders and second, because financially, it might raise the price enough to allow one last financing at a higher level before the moment of truth arrives.
A lot of people will want to load up on spec (buy on rumor and sell on news) and I don't think even short interests (assuming they are even involved) could suppress that kind of price move. Attenuate it?
Sure, but NWBO will still get a higher price for financing if people know for a fact that we are going to get resolution, for good and all on Phase 3 very shortly.
Good to hear. They have never set a near term date as part of playing games before. Historically, the biggest game Ms. Powers played with shareholders was to leave us thinking that Phase 3 was going to wrap up in less than a year while secretly arranging with FDA to delay it by more than a year. How many people bought shares during that time frame at what by today's standards are astronomically high prices because they believed what the company had publically told investors about the trial completion date. Those of us, like me, who lost money because of that game will be leery of buying more.
That said claiming November 2016 and then not delivering would likely destroy what little trust most of us have in NWBO management especially if we help support the share price by buying more again and then get screwed again. Hopefully Mr. Goldman realizes there is a limit to the number of times they can over promise and under deliver.
In short only a permanent price spike after real news should impress us, because NWBO eventually gives back gains based wholly on speculation - and then some.
Exactly right: we'll wait another year and at the end get told that we have to wait another year.
I used to think so.
4 facts that show NWBO is being crushed by regulators:
NWBO's penny stock share price
The unending screening halt
The repeated toxic financings at these sun-$1 price levels
The virtually total silence by NWBO which management apologists used to blame on FDA (now they are focusing on litigation as an excuse)
Lobbyists? Who'd NWBO hire? Wesley Mouch?
Ms. Powers cannot pull a rabbit of a hat because FDA and the German Sickness Funds are holding the hat and are doing one of three things:
A. Being oblivious to the fact that they are killing this company
B. Trying to kill to this company on purpose (insert conspiracy theory)
C. Seeing something negative about DCVax L we have not told.
Ms. Powers thought that going to both Europe and America simultaneously would allow her to have as she put it multiple "ways to win."
Instead NWBO is being crushed between the regulators on both continents.
For little or no added benefit Ms. Powers now has double or triple the red tape to confront and all of this extra work has done nothing to add to speed adoption of DCVax L.
It was a bold strategy and one of those ideas that sounds good to investors in theory but is impractical to execute on a shoestring budget with less than 20 employees.
Maybe everything will turn out for the best, but despite trying to circumvent the normal process by not depending 100% on the FDA, well Ms. Powers is still just as dependent on the FDA as if she had saved a lot of time and money and stuck with doing things over here.
It's a shame, but that is where we are.
Flipper you have to believe the FDA is evil or stupid or you have to believe that DCVax L is not as efficacious as we would like to think.
Now if we were part of a movie I would believe the former.
But since we are living in real life, as each month drags on, we have to start looking at the latter.
Interesting but just looks like another poster presentation (the grown-up equivalent to participating in the science fair). Thus we will not be getting a webcast or audio of Q &a A.
Do you think NWBO is purposefully avoiding venues where they can do webcasts? It sure seems that way.
Interesting theory though NWBO and apparently the SEC have such a narrow definition of the word "material" that I would say the 4 day thing was a likely coincidence.
Still, that would track with Woodford's recent action.
As I said, an interesting theory.
The unusual relationship between Cognate and NWBO creates an inherent conflict of interest and while conflicts of interest can sometimes be resolved or ameliorated, this kind of situation would and should demand greater transparency than normal to shareholders, not less.
Instead of greater transparency than normal, we are getting almost no transparency.
Right now there are tough but fair questions that have yet to be answered:
1. What is the fair market value for the services NWBO has received from Cognate?
2. What price is NWBO paying for the services NWBO has received from Cognate and if a premium is being paid, the justification should be provided?
3. What findings has the investigation into the Phase V allegations that began in January 2016 produced when it comes to the rectitude of the Cognate - NWBO relationship?
4. What steps are being undertaken to reform corporate governance so that further intervention by NASDAQ or government regulators is not needed?
Fair enough, but at this point I personally believe NWBO can wiggle out of reporting just about anything, given how little information shareholders are given about even non-blinded parts of what this company.
I base this observation on the fact that for 2 years we have not been getting updates on even those matters that NWBO legally can discuss, even though we are down 90% and could benefit from that information. Even if it does not help the stock price it will help shareholders make an informed decision about buying, selling, or holding.
Back we were at 12 I had not gone 2 years with a nearly total lack of communication by the company and a 90% loss of my investment amid serious allegations that caused Neil Woodford to stop investing when he couldn't get straight answers from NWBO management.
Okay it is required to be disclosed but with so many exceptions that it might as well be optional disclosure. Got it.
It won't matter what Direct does in Phase 2 if L fails in Phase 3 because we'll be wiped out in terms of equity long before that promise is close to being realized. The money is simply not there for us to wander through the desert another 3 years with no revenue and THEN have to fund a Direct Phase 3 which would be yet more expensive.
Both L and Direct are dendritic cell vaccines and dendritic cell vaccines already have a chequered history. If L fails that will be the final nail in the coffin. Maybe someone will buy up NWBO (even Cognate) but existing shareholders will get wiped out.
Remember that lots of drugs look good in animal trials or Phase 1 and fail when subjected to the full rigor of a Phase 3. So Mr. Feuerstein would not be the only person advising us not read too much into that and his position will seem a lot more reasonable if and when L fails.
So in short, yes a failure of L would have an impact.
It is amazing how a trial failure which would inevitably have massive negative ramifications for shareholders is not something NWBO would be required to report.
I hope NWBO is not leaving us with destroyed shareholder value just to try and trap the shorts. Even the March to $10.00 did not produce that short squeeze once boasted about. Instead of playing games NWBO especially after keep is waiting for meaningful news for at least a year, should release what they have when they have it. As shareownsrs that information. Belongs to us whether we have 10,000 shares or 1 million shares. If we decide to do some profit taking and preserve some of our principle in case NWBO decides to give up even big gains, yet again, that is our decision. If NWBO management is as you suggest, worried about a sell off after gods news offers an exit point they should have thought of that before they treated us like they have for so many years.
It is a stretch to say that we are supported by one of the largest European Funds when the manager of that fund Mr. Woodford attacked NWBO management in public and stopped investing about a year ago. His investment has dwindled so badly that unless he would benefit from a tax loss he has no incentive to sell. I would hardly call that support, not when everyone knows that if he bought more at these prices it would have changed the conversation and restored confidence. For a valid comparison, Warren Buffet investing in GE even on tough terms instantly restored confidence in the company after the crisis in 2008.
NWBO has no meaningful PR or IR operation to speak of.
More than resize Phase 3, Ms. Powers went behind our back with the FDA while in public making us think that we were still just a year away from top-line data until it was a done deal and Bam! we get hit with more than a year's delay.
Sure she threw out some heavy hinting about having such a great trial design that it could be resized if needed but she breathed not one word about the problems with the patients that caused her to want to resize it, not, again, until it was a done deal.
But remember that hinting is usually only obvious in hindsight.
6 months ago one could have argued exactly the same thing.
That is the problem.
So if this is true: yet another reason I am glad that NWBO (per private conversations that get reported here) is apparently trying to avoid a reverse split since reverse plots just enable more shorting.
Neologism.
That is more encouraging. Period.
That's encouraging except when we remember that all NWBO long-term shareholders have heard squishy terms like the "near future", "soon", "any day", and the like for a very long time (as in at least two years and for some, a lot longer than that.
The time for vagary is past and it is high time for specificity.
Thanks (and I mean that) but in fairness everyone knew that if we get good clinical data, the share price would get above the NASDAQ minimum.
When we will get the data is the real question because with things this bad, when really does matter almost as much as if.
As always, that's the question they will pretty much never answer.
I think the entire market is heavily manipulated all the time by lots of actors starting with the Federal Reserve.
I do not believe naked shorting exists any more than I believe aliens have visited Earth or that Bigfoot exists. I started to believe in it, and then realized it was an excuse at lot like every misfortune in medieval and early modern villages got blamed on witches.
I think that the DCVax platform could potentially be a disruptive technology in a limited number of areas in the oncology space provided it is managed correctly and not into oblivion. By bragging about great you are when you are weak and how you do not need anybody you make enemies you can ill-afford. Ms. Powers did a lot of boasting and has proven unable to back it up. Many doors are doubtless now closed to her.
I believe billions of dollars are at stake here but that DCVax will at best supplement and not displace other immunotherapies and even existing technologies. Even if that disruption occurs it will be years out with plenty of time for far-sighted big pharma companies to buy their way in.
Also, I think that those of us who buy into conspiracy theories forget that big pharmaceutical executives are not immune to anything, least of all terminal illnesses. They get cancer and so do their loved ones. So I think if one or more of them were offered a fair way to get in on the ground floor while amply reward Ms. Powers and the rest of us, they'd take it. Every year that this gets delayed is a year some of them or their loved ones might not have.
I do not think that NWBO has attracted much attention at all. In fact it is lack of attention and public buy-in that has killed this stock.
If we had more consistent engagement with the news media any grand conspiracy to kill this stock (if such a thing even existed) would be impossible to pull off.
No one who wants to stay out of jail commits murder in broad daylight in front of the news media.
But in NASDAQ compliance legitimately or via reverse split?
That's quite a difference despite what some claim.
If nothing else, a legitimate price increase would suggest that a positive development.
A reverse split would just prime us for yet more toxic dilution with no end in sight.
A shareholder in receipt of inside information about NWBO would probably not want to let federal authorities know either.
We learned from DNDN that you have to have manufacturing figured out and keep costs per unit down to a reasonable level because otherwise even approval might not be enough to get insurers and doctors on board.
More importantly, some years ago NWBO management assured us that they had studied and learned from DNDN's mistakes and were dealing with manufacturing earlier on and were also developing multiple ways to win like a two continent strategy and the pursuit of early revenues like HE and EAMS since lack of revenue to commercialize properly was another reason why DNDN died after it actually crossed the finish line.
Unfortunately, since those assurances were given NWBO has provided little to nothing in terms of meaningful updates on manufacturing, EAMS and HE.
The supposed machinations of external enemies have been the the go-to excuse for justifying secrecy and lack of accountability the world over and in every era of history.
People seldom benefit by buying into that story but each generation we have to learn that lesson over and over.
You see this strategy used in politics and in religion.
Apparently this same trick works in business.
Lessons from history of course almost always get ignored because they run against our confirmation bias.
Almost everything we "know" about NWBO and the Phase 3 trial in particular is conjecture so I am not sure what you're getting at.
If we take personal legal liability off the table then NWBO executives are really out of legitimate reasons to keep us in the dark about Everything.
Only Phase 3 is blinded so there is a lot they should be talking about given that an accountable management would normally explain in clear terms where 90% of shareholder value went and what concrete steps they are taking to recover it and in what time frame.
And if they cannot keep shareholders properly informed because their actions cannot stand up to legal scrutiny then step aside and let someone else with a clean slate take the reins.
There is no logic for you to follow, and no one actually knows anything about NWBO except maybe Ms. Powers and Mr. Goldman, and I am not sure about them.
Northwest did not respond to Bloomberg when asked to clarify.
Look at our present share price and compare with this day a year ago. Done.
If it is logic you're looking for NWBO is not your investment. So let's just say there's same connection there was between our Phase 3 and September 2016. Truth be told we will more likely see serial dilution tantamount (for long time shareholders like myself) to bankruptcy
Read NWBO's quarterly filings. They put the going concern warning in there, not I. I guess they are ridiculous too.
Interesting, but let's assume nothing big will happen unless NWBO clearly says otherwise. The last thing NWBO investors need either financially or emotionally, is to start hyping another conference.