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You're right and wrong. Woodford has to report the value of his funds to his investors on at least a quarterly basis so in a sense any gains or losses are realized more frequently than they are for us. That said, once he sellls the losses are locked in.
When you have a 90% loss, selling locks the loss in, and takes away any chance of making a recovery let alone a profit. Unless he had some taxable gains he needed to offset there is no logic to selling for him or even for us.
Martha Stewart was jailed for lying to federal investigators and not being poltically well connected enough while doing it. They couldn't get her on insider trading so they had to settle for the smaller charge instead. She should have taken the 5th and she'd have been fine.
Besides by your logic, Mr. Woodford should have invested Day three or four months ago well before we reached the corner if an insider trading allegation truly concerned him.
Woodford's lack of participation is not encouraging. Hopefully it is because he still has some insider knowledge has not been revealed and not because of a lack of confidence.
The fact that brokers seem to be offering usurious rates of interest to borrow shares strongly suggests that makes shorting may not exist or is vastly overstated.
Dumb idea, but what if everyone here did that, at the same time, you know demanded the the return of our shares? Would it cause a short squeeze?
Well I do not want them loaned out to shorts and do not have a marginable account.
And why has my broker never made a similar offer?
My concern then would be that once we get results the company will find a way not to update us, as with Direct. We'll see.
You may be right. The good news is, it won't take long to see.
If the end of this month comes and goes with no news on trial completion. Not results, mind you, but completion, we'll know we're off track on avoiding a reverse split.
That focus on P3 is legitimate since, absent regulatory approval this Phase 2 might not even start, let alone generate positive open label data until late next year anyway.
By late next year we we should finally have an answer from the FDA.
And given the price action this week I am beginning to agree that only actual approval will finally get the market on our side.
Given NWBO's history throwing out great sounding intiatiaves but failing to follow through with concrete results, the lack of regulatory approval and the lack of a clear projected start date are legitimate reasons to discount the value of this good news somewhat.
That said,Merck is also spending money on this trial.
So is the principal investigator.
A correct market reaction would be neither positive nor negative in that case or somewhat positive. Unless NWBO came out and stated that was the only news they have for a long time, this should not, legitimately elicit a negative reaction.
How come I never get those offers?
Delisting is just admitting the truth: NWBO is a penny stock until proven otherwise by trial results. A reverse split just makes it easier to repeat this same process of partial news, dilution, silence, dilution, more silence, and partial news.
I think we're taking too big a risk. Better to cut a deal for up front money with L while retaining control of Direct. That would be the best of both worlds. NWBO has a bad track record when it comes to getting anything done quickly and if NWBO wants to survive while going it alone, they are going to make something BIG happen soon. I am encouraged by this news but the failure of the market to react tells me that smart money thinks this may be a case of too little too late. I really hope the smart money has made a lapse in judgment.
NWBO needs to do a better job of publicizing this news or they will not get investor interest or be able to overcome any manipulation.
A reverse split IS a real threat unless NWBO can announce some good Phase 3 results soon.
Even most investors like me who see this latest PR as very positive are reluctant to buy more until after the reverse split happens.
Only an effective PR operation can maximize news to such a point that manipulation does not work. Or the news has to be strong enough in its own right.
Many brokers do not let retail investors add funds and then invest them in a penny stock like NWBO the same day. I know mine does not and that is to protect retail investors from getting caught up in a moment and scammed. You get several days of cooling off while the funds are restricted to decide if investing in a penny stock is a good idea.
So that hurt the ability of the share price to rise, especially since NWBO is probably not even a valid purchase for many instituional investors because while it remains on the NASDAQ it is effectively a penny stock.
This news is good enough to give us courage to invest more and helped validate or original investment thesis but it is not good enough to change the conversation. Even the way the press release was written kind of sabotaged its ability to impact broad market sentiment. Notice how both Merck and Keytruda had to be referred to using less familiar names and only referred to parenthetically by the names better known to American investors. I do believe that a Rose by any other name does smell differently to investors and helps explain why we did not get any traction.
Also as we know many people bought at the bottom on spec and we're always going to sell on news since NWBO is not a long term investment for them as it is for us.
If NWBO wants to sue Adam Feuerstein they should do it in the United Kingdom where libel laws are much stricter and favor the plaintiff.
Since NWBO operates in the U.K., what with Sawston and yes, EAMS they likely sue Mr. Feuerstein in British court for libel.
But unless President-elect Trump caña as he has stated "open up" the libel laws in the US to favor plaintiffs, the 1st Amendment would shield Mr. Feuerstein, as presently interpreted and applied by statutes and the courts.
An analyst has the 1st Amendment right to criticize NWBO in as many articles as he or she wants. But not even libelous article is permitted. The 1st amendment limitations do not address volume.
And to prove libel against a public figure like NWBO you have to show not only that the information is false but that it is false with malicious intent.
Whether an unusually high volume of negativity could be used to show malice, when combined with content that can be shown in court to be false, that is a separate issue.
While I'm usually skeptical of secondhand reports of what Les Goldman allegedly said in private phone calls if we can believe his "barrage of news" idea at face value that would give us some idea.
That is a factor. I bought at these low levels on spec to help get rewarded for sticking it out if things turn around.
But I am a bit leery of buying more even though the failure of a sustained reaction to this news creates the kind of knowledge differential investors dream of.
We know something big will almost certainly be happening in the next few months and others do not.
And yet a lot of us are probably scared to buy more for fear of being burned like in the past.
Now imagine someone who bought at 30 something cents for his entire position?
He's up so huge he'd be a FOOL not to take some profits. This is not a $6.00 stock for him like it is for most of us.
Well, since Bigfoot actually showed up, then at this point we could get Santa Claus and Nessie too.
I am hoping that this give Neil Woodford the chance to hop back in. If he bought in now, he could mint money because he buys first and then the stock shoots way up because he is back in the game.
It is a chance to make huge money, and with the dilution etc. there has to be headspace for him to buy more shares without gaining a controlling interest.
I can see reasons why that won't happen but it sure would be nice.
Maybe this will give Neil Woodford cover to invest in NWBO again.
We all know financing is coming, that's part of the game, but having Merck's imprimateur on NWBO gives added credibility, whatever Mr. Feuerstein wants to claim.
As to bad results, it depends. Certainly, the Phase 3 trial was so ramshackle and required so many adjustments that it might have been inherently flawed and could technically fail.
But if we abandon the paradigm of DCVax L as a panacea and start thinking of it as part of a combination therapy, well, there is still plenty of scope for profitability.
But also the fact that they are doing this Phase 2 with L and not Direct, is in my opinion, a good sign for the perceived efficacy of L!
I am still cynical about short squeezes because I've seen the shorts wiggle out of having to cover at much higher price levels too many time with this stock.
But I hope you are right, and would not be surprised, given that we are at a much lower and more volatile price level to see history not repeat itself and to finally get a short squeeze.
It sure would be nice!
If nothing happens today or even for a few weeks, I won't blame NWBO for the most part. I might start believing a bit more in the wolfpack.
Do I think we'd get more mileage out of this news if we had better analyst coverage etc.
Sure.
But whatever happens, this is a validation that we needed, however the market reacts.
When you get real news and few recognize it, do you know what you call that?
A buying opportunity!
But unlike other buying opportunities we've had, this one is backed by, once again, solid news so while anything can happen, the risk of trying to take advantage of a knowledge differential between us and the market is a lot lower than it was yesterday!
There are advantages to the fact that NWBO is a poorly monitored stock.
Look I know what can happen based upon personal experience.
I made a large amount of Kythera right after (not before after) they got Phase 3 approval and somehow the market did not key in right away. I bought and then it started skyrocketing until they were bought out by Allergen.
Would I prefer to just have NWBO go through the roof when trading starts today?
Yes, I'd like to be done putting money at risk. I have enough on the table to make money.
But my preference does not change the fact that if the market ignores this clearly positive news, then the is a buying opportunity, plain and simple.
Mr. Feuerstein is distorting here, as best he can. This is very positive news and validates DCVax L, which is incidentally the product NWBO has closest to approval.
Sorry, but I'm enjoying my crow breakfast and Mr. Feuerstein needs to enjoy the same.
The payment side is a little fuzzy but it looks like the University would be bearing some of the costs thereby "substantially reducing costs" for NWBO and maybe they're getting grant money etc.
Obviously both NWBO and Merck are going to have to bear some costs to make this happen.
Naturally, this means more dilution, but dilution for a specific purpose is part of the game. Dilution into a well of silence, well, we know how that is.
While the devil is in the details as always, even if NWBO has some costs and even if there is some dilution, this is a major victory.
I was wrong in thinking that news was not around the corner.
Sometimes history does not repeat itself.
Being wrong sure feels good!
Don't think we'll be needing that article anymore not with NWBO's PR!
Now this is real news, shared with everyone. Good for them! Good for us! And above all good for the patients!
Hope you're right.
I hope you succeed, because I make money if you do and because I still hold out hope that DCVax L can do some good, along with DCVax Direct.
What's with the really old news?
NWBO is so cheap, wouldn't it make sense to spend the 10k on that if you are so gung ho your willing to spend 10k just to boost this company?
I doubt an SA article will make or break NWBO and they do not deserve for you to take the place of their broken PR operation.
We have three choices:
1. Invest more money to keep the same investment, even though we long ago invested what we could really stand to lose.
2. See our share of the company eroded and watch Johnny Come Latelys who bought in at 40 cents or 50 cents reap our rewards.
3. Sell out and recover what little we can.
1 is the most emotionally appealing but the most foolish since a good outcome is still in doubt and many of us already have about what we can afford to risk on the table as it is.
2. is the most sensible but also galling
3. Is stupid because, having lost 90% of our value, it is better to hold onto our lotto tickets and at least hope to break even. Also we are, hopefully near the end of this drama (and yes a lot of us said that last year, and the year before, but hey).
We'll just have to see but NWBO long ago squandered the benefit of the doubt.
I appreciate what you are saying it, but if you can say it, then so can Les Goldman in a letter to shareholders followed by a low profile regulatory filing.
After all, if you understand their strategy, then no doubt, Big Pharma does too, already, so the only people they are keeping in the dark are those who most deserve to catch a break: shareholders.
I could get it if NWBO had always been secretive.
But I have been invested long enough that I can remember a different approach to investor relations.
They had no problem buying infomercials and doing video presentations when they wanted our investment, so what about now when times are bad?
There is no excuse for this.
As I told RK, Les Goldman promised a busy 1st quarter at the start of this year and produced absolutely nothing. As with now, he would have been motivated to make shareholders keep swallowing further dilution in the hopes that good news is around the corner.
So if I did not have that prior example I'd agree with you.
We'll see. We were also told right before Quarter 1 of 2016 that it would be a busy 1st Quarter by Les Goldman.
Nothing happened but it made us feel better (at the time) about the dilution and the tanking share price.
This 'update' could be just another trick.
Look, I make money if you're right about this, so we'll see. But I have bills to pay so I am not betting more right now. I already did my last investing on spec a while back and I am up on those shares at least.