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SANZ:
I have owned this stock for the past 8 months. Always seemed to me to be a company on the verge of turning a profit, in a good business. For most of that time my investment has been dead or down money. But during the past couple of months it has started to show signs of life, and an announcement today of a new contract is significant:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060426/20060426005742.html?.v=1
Steve
timmage re TCLL:
Great news this week. Thanks again for recommending this stock.
Steve
LTFD:
Here is the PR. Bullish comments and guidance, to boot:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060418/20060418006015.html?.v=1
Steve
re Uranium:
About 10 days ago, CCJ announced construction delays at Cigar Lake due to water inflow into a shaft caused by a broken valve. The company estimated that the incident would delay production by 6 months and drive up the cost of the project by CDN $50-$100 million.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060406/0121986.html
At first the stock sold off a bit on the news, until it dawned on everyone that this delay would add to the already serious supply/demand imbalance in the metal, with resulting upward pressure the price. Since CCJ is the major producer of uranium in the world, the net effect of its construction delay is probably to increase its revenues in the near term. Go figure. For those who own CCJ, Q1 2006 earnings are scheduled to be announced on May 2, 2006, and if last quarter is any indication there will be a runup before earnings and then some selling afterwards. I plan to lighten my position by the end of this month.
Uranium Participation Corporation's stock and May '07 warrants continue hot. The warrants closed today at US$3.02, up 188% YTD. If you look at the price of the underlying security, and compare it to the corporation's NAV, significant increases from here in the spot price of uranium are obviously anticipated by the market. The stock is trading at a substantial premium to the NAV.
FWIW, a couple of weeks ago I initiated a small position in SAN.V (SANRF.pk). Timing was good on this one, as it is up 30% since then; wish I had bought more. On the flip side of the coin, UEX.TO has gone nowhere in recent weeks, and it is my second largest uranium stock holding after CCJ.
Steve
OT: Argyll re temperatures:
Is this worldwide, or just the U.S.? I read somewhere that it has been very cold this year in Asia and other parts of the world.
Steve
rrufff:
Are you still holding this stock? Is the recent news as bullish as it appears to be? Seems to me that if you can believe half of what the company is saying, this thing should go through the roof.
Thanks for any thoughts.
Steve
RGMI:
Extremely bullish sounding PR and guidance.
Steve
TVOC:
Out with disappointing numbers. Earnings of $.72 for the year, which I believe means $.11 for Q4. Have not had a chance to dig into details. Managed to get out at $6.70, for a decent gain on remaining shares.
Steve
VSYS:
I have had them in both Pick Six contests. And I have a bunch in real life too. Last purchase was at $.45, so this rise today may get me even overall.
This one has been a rocky road . . . hope they have finally turned the corner.
Steve
UCPJ:
The 10K is out. Revenues flat. Company showed small loss for the year:
"NET LOSS. For the year ended December 31, 2005, we had a net loss of $96,310 as compared to a net loss of $510,922 for the year ended December 31, 2004, a decrease of $414,612 or 81.15%. This decrease is attributable to the decrease in interest expense of $345,161, the decrease in operating expenses of $121,844, the net change in other expense of $102,437, the increase in gross profit margin of $25,838, and the increase in the tax provision for the tax benefit of $24,206."
Maybe that means this one moves to the ZCC board.
Steve
Len:
Sounds like a prediction of a top -- "last leg up."
Perhaps you're right. Should be interesting.
Steve
Len re uranium:
Fair enough. I do believe that your index will be up at least 25% from current levels in the next 3-6 months. And some issues much more than that.
Steve
Len re Uranium:
An interesting idea. What is the time horizon for measuring performance?
Steve
Len re Uranium:
There may come a time when it will make sense to short things uranium related. But that time is definitely not now.
The supply/demand fundamentals are unbelievably compelling, and will be increasingly compelling over the next decade. The spot price is headed to $50 in no time at all and may get as high as $100 over the next year or two. If you need proof, the May '07 warrants I own in Uranium Participation Corporation are up 20% today, over 35% this week, and up probably 150% or so YTD.
Right now this has little to do with China, India, new facilities, etc., although the world's plans to build new facilities are well publicized and are in the deep background. The simple fact is that the world is currently using much more uranium each year than it is producing and stockpiles are nearing depletion. The time lag to new production is considerable. More impressive really than the increase in spot price is what I understand to be the floor/ceiling numbers for long time contracts being negotiated today. When these contracts kick in, and all this money drops to the bottom line the increase in earnings is going to be exponential. That is why I am determined to own the "big" players, even though they look horribly expensive now: as they come off old long term contracts, the increases are going to be phenomenal. Again, in the overall cost of running a nuclear energy facility the cost of the uranium is a very small factor, and those who plan for the future will pay what they have to.
Now, the Canadian and Australian juniors are another story. That was the point of my post. There is a new one popping up every day, with nothing but a map and a Board of Directors. Who knows what the future will bring for any of them. But I am a uranium bull and have been since last June. I have been dutifully posting the spot price every month or so over on the VMC board because it is the most remarkable thing I have ever seen. No pullback -- not a single week. Just up, up, up.
I think we are witnessing a sea change in the international energy picture.
Steve
re Uranium and "value":
The uranium juniors are "frothy" these days to say the least. The prices have become completely separated from anything having to do with "value." The idea it seems to me, at least for those with risk tolerance, is to try to catch a wave or two, and then get out before it hits the beach. Long term the "big" companies (i.e., CCJ, DEN.TO, and UEX.TO -- none is really all that big) should do well, and this story will certainly have a long term. But stocks that go up 50% in 3 days based upon a report of cutlines is a bit much. This article sounds a needed word of caution.
Yellowcake fever intensifies
Thursday, March 30, 2006
Ben Sharples
THE madness surrounding uranium has continued, with investors keen to feast on anything yellowcake-related, big or small, with A1 Minerals, Monax Mining and Joseph Gutnick's Quantum Resources just some that are reaping the benefits.
Fat Prophets analyst Gavin Wendt told MiningNews.net the demand for uranium stocks is being driven by the uranium price, but labelled the frenzy as "crazy" and "ridiculous".
"When an underlying commodity is performing strongly, obviously there is going to be significant interest in those companies in the sector," Wendt said.
"The only problem is … there is no indication outside of Paladin Resources that any of those other Australian companies will actually have the prospect of mining approvals being granted.
"There is no indication that any new mines will be given the go-ahead, if there is an expansion in uranium mining it is likely it will be related a couple of the existing major operations like Olympic Dam.
"There is no prospect and there has certainly been no indication by any of the state governments that they intend to change their view.
"Most of these uranium plays are so far removed from production that it is almost ridiculous to try and draw a line between the price of uranium and to try and put a value on those companies."
ANZ Global natural resources analyst Andrew Harrington told MiningNews.net he didn't think the "mania" surrounding uranium stocks was sustainable.
"People are running up the share prices of companies that have uranium prospect in areas that are not even allowed to mine," Harrington said. "It's crazy."
Budding gold producer A1 Minerals is the lastest to jump on the bandwagon, announcing preliminary imagery from a government radiometric survey has indicated the presence of "anomalistic" uranium channel radioactivity on its Narnoo exploration project in Western Australia.
The news sent A1 shares up 6c (20%) to 30c during morning trade, before the stock settled at 27c mid-morning.
Elsewhere, Monax Mining shares peaked at 37c, gaining 8c during morning trade on the back of news that the company had applied for two tenements around its Ambrosia project in South Australia's Gawler Craton.
Monax shares eventually settled at 32c mid-morning.
However, the standout performer was Quantum Resources, which surged more than 200% from 2.8c to 9.4c yesterday on the back of news the company would start exploring for uranium in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, as soon as the tenements were granted.
The stock eventually settled at 6.8c yesterday, with more than 22 million shares changing hands. The stock was off 1c during morning trade at 5.8c.
Steve
ALZ.V:
Sold half ALZ.V shares. Couldn't resist taking profits. Up 50% in the three days I've owned it.
Apparently, this PR has been the catalyst:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10404376
Seems to me this is basically old news, as the company announced the deal two weeks ago. Perhaps there is some magic in the words "accepted for filing."
Signs of life today with IUC.TO. It may be time to get back in to this one.
Bought quite a bit of CCJ today.
Steve
yinser re MGA.V (MGAFF.PK):
This one has been a spectacular story. Absolutely meteoric rise -- up tenfold or thereabouts in the past year. It is one of the ones that I wish I had bought. I kept thinking it was too late to get in, and the stock kept going up.
Now, of course, I think it is too late to get in. Which probably means it will keep going up. But I cannot bring myself to pull the trigger at this point.
Steve
nelson1234:
Have posted some thoughts on the ZCC board.
Steve
nelson1234 re Uranium:
Sorry to be a little slow reacting to your question about uranium stocks. The day job has been demanding today.
I guess the best way I can answer the question is to begin by disclosing what I own: a modest amount of CCJ (CCO.TO), the largest producer; a very modest amount of DEN.TO (DNMIF.PK), the second largest producer; a (for me) significant amount of UEX.TO (UEXCF.PK), a company large enough to be included recently in the S&P/TSX Composite Index; a modest amount of ALZ.V (ALZTF.PK), which I bought today; and a small amount of URNZ. CCJ is an NYSE listed stock, traded here and in Canada. DEN, UEX and ALZ have U.S. pink sheet listings that as far as I know get filled in Canada. URNZ is listed only on NASDAQ.
I have jumped in and out of all of these stocks, but have always maintained some position in CCJ, DEN, and UEX. I once owned stock in other Canadian juniors -- DJE.V, IUC.TO, JNN.V (sold it today), and QUI.V. Made money fast on each and took profits. Two of them, DJE and QUI, continued to climb after I sold; the jury is still out on the other two.
I have made money on every one of these stocks. Frankly, it has been hard not to make money in uranium during the past 18 months or so. My selection of companies has not been the best -- I've passed up 2 or 3 that really went nuts -- and my timing in and out has been far from perfect. But I have made good money anyway.
I bought ALZ today because it has not participated in the uranium party. I figure eventually Dines, or Grandich, or Casey or someone will need a new idea for a newsletter, and will say something nice about it. Or there will be some PR with drilling results that sound promising. It will then go up 30%-50% in a week, and I will sell it. I will then look for another uranium stock that has been flat for 3 months, and buy it. Long term the only stocks that I know I want to own are CCJ, DEN and UEX, and I have staked a good sized position in UEX because CCJ owns a big chunk of it and it has high quality reserves in the Athabasca Basin. I am planning to buy some more CCJ next week as it appears that recent Dines-related selling has run its course. I sold JNN.V today because it had gone up 30% in the 10 days since I bought it. Bobwins is in it so I hope it goes to the moon.
Frankly, I am much more certain that the spot price of uranium will go up than I am that any particular company is a good investment. My take is that everyone wants to be in uranium and no-one knows what to buy. So the money chases whatever the newsletter gurus are touting at the moment, and they need to have something new for their subscribers every week/month. And I really have a tough time saying that any uranium stock is "undervalued." It is hard to know what that means in this context.
Incidentally, the Uranium Participation Corporation stock is up about 25% in the last 3 months, but the warrants are up about 125%. In the past month the stock is up 13%, but the warrants are up about 60%. I expect this ratio to hold for the foreseeable future, and expect to see a $50/lb spot price for uranium in the next 3-6 months. I own the warrants. Again, my timing was not perfect last year on the purchase -- at one point I was down 20% -- but I am up about 65% now and expect the best days for this investment are still to come.
Hope something here helps.
Steve
OT re Uranium:
Doug Casey on uranium juniors and uranium spot price (with plug for his newsletter):
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=18129
It is certainly true that there is a new uranium junior popping up every day now. It seems to me that this money chases whatever Dines, Grandich, and Casey are recommending in a given week/month.
The spot price for uranium is up another $.50/lb this week. If one has a strong conviction about the future of uranium, it may be easier to play the spot price of the metal itself than to pick the right stock. It is possible to play the spot price through Uranium Participation Corporation stock (U.TO) and its May '07 warrants (U.WT.TO). Both have done extremely well of late, but the warrants are now outperforming the stock every week by a considerable amount and will continue to do so as long as the spot price for uranium goes up. Obviously, if the spot price goes down, the warrants will be hit much harder. But then it seems to me that if the spot price goes down to any appreciable extent, the uranium juniors will get killed.
Incidentally, the largest uranium producer, CCJ, has been hit recently because of a Dines recommendation (he said sell half). The stock is anything but cheap, but still this may be a good entry point. If/when institutions and funds start taking a serious interest in uranium, this will be the only stock they can buy.
While it is possible that the things have gotten a bit frothy with the uranium juniors, my own view FWIW is that the spot price is very likely to continue its march to $50/lb. and higher. As Casey points out, the supply/demand fundamentals are compelling, and the cost of the metal itself is a negligible cost for the nuclear energy industry relative to the overall costs of operating a nuclear energy facility.
The primary concern I have is that those hoarding the metal, including Uranium Participation Corporation, may one day decide to take profits. Some of the rise in the spot price is due to investment/speculative buying, not actual need by the nuclear energy industry, and if/when these buyers become sellers, there will be an ugly period for the spot price. However, while the investment/speculative buying has accelerated the rise of the spot price, it is not the cause of the rise. The price is ultimately headed higher -- much higher -- on fundamentals alone, and I would be surprised to see any investment/speculative selling before we get to $50/lb. We are still in a sweet spot here and should continue to be for the foreseeable future.
Steve
KSWW:
Speaking of KSWW, new contract for $17 million:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060323/20060323005387.html?.v=1
Steve
D J E . V:
This company does not have earnings. Excellent uranium speculation, but does not belong on this board.
Steve
U.WT.TO:
The warrants are up over 100% in the past 3 months, and if the spot price continues to rise should do 3 or 4 times better than the stock.
Steve
tophat59 re UCPJ:
Don't know. Presumably by the end of March, if the company is timely.
Steve
otcbargains re UCPJ:
Up another 35% today. I was late to get on board at $.00575 and sold 45% at $.008. But I kept the rest. Now at $.019. Have decided to hold through earnings.
Terrific recommendation. Thanks again.
Steve
MCX:
Posts earnings: $.33 for Q4, $1.22 for year.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060317/20060317005205.html?.v=1
Steve
otcbargains re UCPJ:
Up about 50% in the first hour today. Have to keep reminding myself that 5 million shares is only $50k or so!
Thanks much for pounding the table on this stock. Looks like the report may be good.
Steve
OT re Uranium:
On Monday subscribers to Ux Weekly learned that the spot price for uranium reached $40/lb. That information was publicly available after the close on Tuesday. Trade Tech, the other service that quotes a spot price for uranium, had already quoted $40/lb. for the spot price after the close last Friday.
Stock in Uranium Participation Corporation, U.TO, is up about 4% from Friday's close. But the May '07 warrants, U.WT.TO, are up about 18%.
It looks like we are headed to $50/lb. within the next 3-6 months. If this happens, my guesstimate is that the warrants will double. Incidentally, U.S. owners of the warrants cannot exercise them -- they can only trade them. If you buy them you need to be out in advance of the exercise date, and they are not very liquid.
Steve
VML.L (AIM):
Interesting article on VANE Minerals, VML.L (AIM):
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/energy/971939.htm
Steve
CHAR:
My guess is that price has been set this high to avoid litigation. Probably will succeed in doing so.
Steve
CHAR to be acquired by Lukoil:
CHAR to be acquired by Lukoil for $5.80 per share:
http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?view=CN&symbol=CHAR&storyID=148...
Steve
timmage re TCLL:
I bought a few shares at $.12 when you first posted about it a month ago, and wish I had bought more. Many thanks.
As I understand it, the net income for Q3 was $349,000, with 95 million shares outstanding. Now that it has reached $.225, do you see a lot of upside from here?
Thanks.
Steve
I bought more at $2.70. I think the PR is very bullish.
Rocketstocks:
No problem. Incidentally, I just bought a few shares at $.20. Looks to me like the stock will be qualifying here soon. Glad you posted about it.
Steve
yielddude:
Thanks. Always wondered about that.
Steve
stockmann:
That was my take. Very interesting story developing. Sold half of my shares for a double, but kept the rest. Glad I did.
Steve
IMMG acquires advertising agency:
Very interesting company that has done well of late:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10017576
Steve
IMMG acquires advertising agency:
News:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10017576
Steve
IMMG acquires advertising agency:
News:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10017576
Steve