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http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=19404
a couple of interesting things
The real wild card amongst all these announcements is the Yonah dual core Pentium M coupled with the Napa chipset that's also promised for 2005. In reality, this is likely to be the most interesting of Intel's dual core products and we still believe that the internal war between Louis "desktop" Burns and Anand "Centrino" Chandrasekher is continuing. It would be a radical step too far for Intel to throw its Pentium 4 "Netburst" architecture into the bin overnight, so the existence of dual core Prescotts is a way of making the move without the whole world realising that the game is over for this architecture. You can read the crib sheet for the Pentium Ms, here.
Me...
Just how much heat are these P4 things going to give off, ever at reduced speeds. The sooner INTC gets rid of "NETBURST" the better off they will be.
Them:
The further introduction of a "digital" brand shows that Intel is, for the first time in a long time, somewhat paralysed by indecision. It knows that a real battle is brewing between the IT firms and consumer electronics companies but it's too early for it to say which way that battle will go.
Intel at its highest levels, we believe, was itself surprised by the success of the Centrino branding exercise. It would just love to be able to repeat that success, and make sure an Intel box is at the centre of your digital home. But there are still way too many obstacles and uncertainties for any firm - whether it be Microsoft or Intel - to declare what shape such a digital home will take. Don't forget there are some big consumer electronics firms with years of experience selling into this market that might easily pip the X86 firms to the post. No amount of speculative road maps point a clear way to that destination. µ
Me...
This is probably going to be a huge decision, for everyone. For that reason I expect INTC to come up with a whole slew of "in house" possible answers while companies like AMD look to form partnerships with existing consummer companies. I've said many times that I would love to see AMD and SNE get together. For sure, when the music stops there are going to be a lot fewer chairs than dancers.
I used to trade about 10 to 15% of my AMD stock fairly regularly, but the last trade I made was before AMD went through the last falling from grace. I've been afraid that something like what we're into now was going to happen. Of course, for some reason, we had to take that big dip before we could hop back on the rocket. Things really aren't that different today from what they were then. Well there is more confirmation from the media, but all the signs were in place 6 months ago.
One thing that has bothered me for some time is the capacity brick wall that AMD will hit in q2 or q3, even with most of production at 90nm. For awhile it looked possible that IBM might come to the rescue, but unless AMD and IBM are very near production I can't see IBM being very interested in the sort of short term commitment AMD would probably want now. And then there's the very luke warm response IBM has given Opterons.
Anyway, things could be a lot worse than having AMD running fab30 flat out.
AMD has had quite a run lately. Ordinarily I would have thought the stock would be taking a rest by now. Fundamentally, given all the flash questions being raised I'm having a hard time seeing the stock continue onwards, even with processors apparently going gangbusters, but with 60+M shares short who knows?
I've owned lots of stocks that either went up or down big, but this AMD is something else, kind of like being on a colossal roller coaster. I've seen this happen so many times it's like deja vu.
If you don't like the AMD weather just wait awhile and something different will come along.
Interesting comparison between a centrino and Itanium. The heat sink must be a monster.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=19402
Well here goes my blood pressure again.
Frankly my dear, INTC has always been a whore, mostly in the way if has deprived AMD of the right to compete fairly. That covers everything from coercion of mobo makers to writing INTC only requirements in contracts (as in Europe) to pressuring channels etc., etc. The latest Inquirer article about no AMD products in Israel is just the latest evidence of how INTC has used it advantages to unfairly tilt the playing field.
Worse, in the last couple of years INTC has deteriorated into a true Horror Show as INTC management has made one mistake after another. And don't give me that crap about how much money INTC makes. Falling EPS is a trailing indicator that’s the last symptom before rigor mortis sets in.
INTC may not be heading for the Dumpster (yet), but it is definitely making a move to the poor house.
Well I don't know what to tell you. From my point of view there's no way AMD could have gotten where it is, as fast as it has, without a lot of help from INTC management. Whether INTC can stop making mistakes and return to their old ways of keeping AMD in line remains to be seen. INTC still has a lot of things going for it, but frankly I doubt current management is up to the task. The genie is out of the bottle and he's not going back.
Anyway, AMD is pretty much home free until at least h205. After that we'll have to see what INTC can come up with. By the end of H2 of 05 AMD will have a lot more in cash reserves and fab35 will be nearing first samples. Considering how much stronger AMD is now with all the relationships they have been making, the expanded/diversified/superiority of their product lines, and the increasing acceptance of AMD products by the Enterprise market, it would seem an impossible task for INTC to slow down let alone stop this locomotive.
AMD in contrast with INTC has been remarkably error free lately. However, this could change. A couple of screw-ups and INTC could be on top again. But then that's what investing is all about, knowing what's happening.
Nope! EOM
As I said having owned INTC for so many years, and done very well on it, I'm kind of conflicted by what I see. One side of me really hates to see INTC being taken down by incompetent management. On the other hand I'm just an investor and I have to go where the money is.
I was trying to paint a picture. All companies are hookers especially tech companies. You could say it's a requirement to be in bed with your customers.
In INTC's case I was thinking of a dumpy woman in a red dress, puffing on a cigarette, with unshaved legs and flabby arms sporting a tattoo. That image pretty much sums up the way I see INTC today.
No argument here. If INTC had spent half as much time creating products based on X86 rather than trying to corner the market with proprietary products AMD would still be a runt of no consequence. Just think what would have happened if INTC had come up with AMD64 before AMD did. I shudder at the thought.
There should be plenty of time to figure things out concerning INTC matching AMD products. After all it's taken AMD 5+ years to get where they are by my reconing. Having finally gotten out of the "Pit of Dispair" I doubt that AMD wants to ever be cast into it again. I fully expect AMD to continue pressing as hard as they can.
In the meantime I'm thoroughly enjoying the markets amorous advances on AMD again.
Your right combining Xeon and Itanium into a product the market wants does seem like a difficult task. Maybe they will do something like AMD did with the Sempron, merging Athlon and A64 into a new product line. Still making Itanium more X86 friendly seems daunting in itself.
Flash does remain a big question mark. With INTC scheduling price reductions it's not going to help flash revenues for either company.
I'm not sure how much AMD and INTC compete directly. From what I've read AMD has a much broader line with INTC mainly pushing 8 and 16 mb chips. I'm not sure how much of that business AMD has. AMD has seemed to be attempting to move the market up to higher bit densities where Mirrored flash has more advantages.
I can't seem to find the flash pricing tables of Buggi1000.
Do you know if the 8 and 16mb chips INTC is selling are Strata flash or just regular flash?
In any case, for now, I'm thinking AMD flash revenue will depend on Chinese purchases for cell phones, DVD players and MP3 players.
Your right though, I'm also expecting processors to hadily outperform flash. If A64 sales go as planned AMD should have a good quarter.
There probably is a niche market though I seem to recall reading something recently on Anandtech where he said that single processors would be preferable for gamers. I'm not sure what sort of marketing problems it might create.
The good news is that AMD is finally getting prices for its' high-end chips that seemed impossible a couple of years ago.
I'm not so sure about the mobile market being all INTC's anymore. Not that AMD is going to do any real damage, but I seem to remember reading something recently about a lot more AMD laptops hitting the market.
AMD's quarter is probably going to depend on how many A64 chips are sold whether desktop or laptop. If AMD increases sales again by near 50%, which seems possible, AMD is going to have a good quarter.
As far as flash goes, there were two stories last quarter. One was that INTC cut prices and AMD couldn't/wouldn't compete. The other was that the Chinese MP3/DVD makers cut back because of licensing issues and Chinese cell phone producers cut back because they had previously over ordered. For now I'm going with AMD management’s flat to slightly up. Of course INTC probably can play a small part by the way it prices. The question is whether INTC is making any money on its flash business? The way INTC breaks out its numbers makes it hard to determine, but it sure looks like INTC is losing money in flash.
Agreed Opterons particularly those with more than 2 processors should continue to take market share.
INTC, for many years was able to keep AMD in its' place without being so overt about it. It's only lately that INTC seems to have lost the knack of being able to keep AMD contained.
Given the many advantages INTC has over AMD one would think keeping the runt in its place would be child’s play, but alas current management seems to have problems tying its' shoe laces let alone containing AMD.
Believe it or not, I have no attraction for AMD other than the investment possibilities, I'm just trying to make a buck. Besides how does one get emotionally involved with a legal entity?
I certainly don't know Hector or any of the other guys running AMD, I don't even know anyone working at AMD. On top of that I'm not even a techie so my investment in AMD is nothing more than that, an investment.
On the other side of the fence the situation is the same for INTC. I just have a lot of experience following both companies going way back and I call them as I see them.
I've felt this way for quite awhile. I've mentioned this before, but up to 1998/1999 I was basically invested in INTC with occasional forays into AMD. Starting in 1999 I began moving into AMD completely as I started to get uneasy about the decisions being made at INTC. Not that investing in AMD has been any bed or roses, but just from a financial point of view the decision was the right one.
What really has me pissed is the way INTC has gone from the undisputed tech master to the object of much scorn and derision, besides from me. INTC had a license to steal and current management, like the profligate son, has squandered the inheritance.
My belief was that the extra capacity was built for the expected boom in Itaniums that never materialized. Just one bad management decision leading to another.
Well I have no idea what the process was that got the Israelis the chance to show their stuff, but I had never heard of them ever being given the chance to show what they had until INTC got into its excess power/heat problems. I would bet the solution was a lot more Israeli based that what you seem willing to admit.
You’re right, there are undoubtedly lots of good managers at INTC, but that doesn't change things, INTC management has made lots of lousy decisions over the last few years. And then there's that management lack of imagination thing again.
Yes, I'm constantly amazed how INTC seems to have more toes to shoot off than there are bullets. Frankly, the inability of AMD to take market share despite INTC's more or less continuous string of blunders has had me very perplexed and confounded. I'll be looking and AMD's financials very carefully this quarter. AMD really needs to take better advantage of the current situation.
One thing I know is that when your in a street fight you had better put your foe away while you've got him down or he will likely end up putting you away.
Yes, INTC was lucky that the Israelis were able to bail them out. To my way of thinking that just highlights the ineptitude of the rest of the company. Personally, if it were me I would throw away the rest of the company and let the Israelis show what they really can do. It's hard to fault success.
Yes, it's very ironic that given all the advantages you listed INTC still can't seem to come up with an answer to AMD. The whole INTC management structure needs to be scrapped, starting at the top.
Well I did say in almost all sectors. INTC's low power laptops have been one notable execption to a generaly pathetic return on INTC's R&D budget.
Actually, I'm not too concerned about AMD when fab35 comes online. For one thing the equipment will be the biggest cost and that will be added on an as needed basis. For another AMD is used to living on a shoe string.
INTC is the one that will have the problems coping with what will undoubtedly be very aggressive pricing on AMD products. Also, unless there is a big pick up in demand for INTC products it's going to become ever harder for INTC to maintain their historic margins as fab capacity drops with AMD market share gains.
Incidentally, building a couple of times INTC's capacity needs in state of the art plants was another bone headed idea of the 1st magnitude that INTC management came up with.
Well like I said I see a window for INTC to catch up from H205 through about H106 before fab35 comes online, but I really doubt INTC has the ability to close the gap. Until H205 AMD should be golden.
I would feel better about INTC if I some original thinking. So far it appears that INTC has just latched onto every idea AMD has come up with lately. I wonder how much longer it will be before we hearing about an INTC EMMA?
The real problem seems to be that INTC's management is still coming up with solutions that were applicable to middle 70's to middle 90's problems. Coming up with a proprietary Itanium to compete in a dying "Big Iron" market was one of the most bone headed ideas imaginable. Creating the P4 as a speed demon at a time when it was becoming obvious that other factors were becoming more important to processor power was another bone headed mistake that INTC will pay for quite awhile.
Then there's the matter of deworsification (per Peter Lynch) that INTC has gone through. I'm sure I'm wrong but I can't think of a single money making product that INTC has produced since it got on the diversification bent.
I see all the above as character flaws in INTC management. The willingness of management to look for the easy solution in non-competitive solutions. The willingness to push what worked in the past rather than looking for new ways to do things and the inability to direct the company into new profitable products are things that won't be fixed by present management.
INTC had a gold mine. Admittedly the problems INTC has didn't occur overnight, but just 2 years ago AMD was on the verge of bankruptcy. To have let a pip-squeak company like AMD with one fifth the R&D resources of INTC take a technology lead in almost every product line was unconscionable. All INTC had to do was just keep grinding AMD slowly into the ground but B&O in their infinite wisdom opened a window for AMD that will probably never be closed. The guys running INTC are buffoons of the first order and should be taken out and shot.
That's my thinking too. Timing a short play on INTC is going to be very important. The market seems to have renewed it's typical year end love fest with Tec’s and one doesn't want to get in a situation where your fighting the market.
Well I have to disagree with you. INTC is a crappy company and getting worse mainly due to some of the most incompetent management I've ever seen. There's a short answer to you question and a long one. Since I don't have the time, you get the short one.
INTC is an aging whore that has put on about 25 pounds and all the makeup and perfume will not change things. Nothing short of a complete management make over will get INTC back on the streets and hooking again.
I'm surprised to see you bringing up the straw man of earnings, I thought that was Elmer's answer to everything. Well, In any case earnings are a trailing indicator. By the time a companies earnings start to fall the cancer has usually metastasized.
INTC has a window from about h05 to h06 in which to get its shit together. If it hasn't fixed things by the time fab35 comes on-line things will deteriorate quickly.
As far as flash goes the real question is how much good money INTC is willing to throw after the bad in an attempt to do in flash to AMD what AMD is doing to INTC in processors?
AMD is going to have a very good quarter. The question is really, how badly will INTC's earnings compare with AMD's? Lately, the market seems to think AMD will come out on top.
What I was thinking about was taking out a modest short position and adding to it as/when INTC falls. I'm not too interested in making money on INTC as I am about covering some of the AMD gains we've made. This would be a medium range tactic, through 1st quarter 05 at least.
I realize INTC still has a lot of big boy support but AMD didn't get that 3+ beta it sports by being a widows and orphans stock. At this rarified altitude AMD could very easily get a nosebleed from a change in air pressure. If AMD does any bleeding I would expect INTC to also.
I'm getting a little nervous about the speed, with which AMD has been tacking on gains lately, though I certainly think they are justified. I've been thinking about taking out some insurance in the form of an INTC short. Shorting isn't something I do with impunity for a variety of reasons, but this may be the rare time when it is appropriate.
Here are some of the things I'm thinking about:
1) I’m not cognizant of the ins and outs of program trading, but it sure looks like INTC has been drug along on the heels of AMD lately.
2) The NASD and SOXX have taken a big jump.
3) If AMD has the sort of quarter I think they will have it can only be bad for INTC if only in comparison.
4) AMD is very subject to the whims of the SOXX.
5) The markets remain very subject to macro events such as the election and price of oil.
6) INTC remains a crapola company, something that isn't likely to change in the foreseeable future.
So what it comes down to is that AMD will probably get a Niceguy quarter. INTC without any accounting gimmicks and a big LCOS write off will probably have at best a quarter slightly less profitable than q3. If either of those things happen INTC will probably take a drop and that's not considering the very real possibility of macro events that could affect both INTC and AMD.
Yes, I'm surprised that HP in particular just resells, although I seem to remember reading something like that somewhere. I would have thought they would want to have some input into the products they sell. DELL, on the other hand, I'm not surprised at.
Anyway, EMMA really isn't a PDA type product, although the boundaries do seem to be blurring given the relatively smallish size of EMMA. All this stuff seems to be coalescing into a Smorgasbord of products that the markets will sort out over time. Still, EMMA has enough to differentiate it that it should be able to carve out a niche for itself. It could even turn out to be a very big niche.
I know HP/DELL etc. have similar products, but what I was getting at is that EMMA is going to be marketed in a completely different fashion. These new distribution channels could conceivably grow along with the markets eventually providing competition for the black boxes as well as products like TIVO. This could turn out to be a very big business especially if the google model of internet access supplants the MSFT model as I expect.
Emma seems to be the perfect distinguisher between INTC and AMD. While INTC management is notable for its' lack of imagination and clogged arteries, AMD is again leading the convergence of computer and communication devices into the 21st century.
There seems to be a lot of hand wringing going about whether there's a market for EMMA. Personally I see this as a marketing issue to be handled by the telcos, ISP’s etc. Considering that these devices will be marketed outside of the normal computer distribution channels I fully expect to see some very innovative plans offered with extended contracts. Probably something parallel to what is done in the cell phone markets.
An interesting side of this issue is the effect this will have on companies like DELL, HP, etc. Clearly AMD has taken a step around these guys, something they won’t be too happy about. Clearly this is another step in the commoditization of communication/computing for the masses.
All in all, quite an innovative and timely idea perfectly situated to AMD's needs/capabilities. I'm very impressed. Undoubtedly this will open the door to copycats of all ilks, but without a doubt this will help with follow on sales of AMD products.
Wow. Although I had a general understanding of the terms and what was being done to get the OTA signal to a DVD, that was the first time I've ever seen all the steps laid out from begining to end.
About how long would this process take on a 2Ghz machine. It sounds like a very big/fast disk is a requirement.
I'm enjoying the conversation you and Pete are having. This is a subject that's very near and dear to me so please keep posting. From my non-technical point of view this area seems to be evolving very quickly as wireless and DVD standards mature. Now if they could just figure out the property rights issues. For sure 10 years is way too far out for a useful Home media center. One or 2 more iterations should see consumer level products that don't require a 500 page manual. I expect that people like you and Pete will have systems that work long before consumer level products hit the market.
Well this is a little outside of my bailiwick, but the way the stock is revolving around $14 seems to indicate that a tug of war is going on? Above $14 the calls are in the money, and below $14 the puts are, right? At this late stage in the game it seems that there would be a lot of pressure to settle when the stock swings above or below $14?
Max pain was 13.59 yesterday. It has been moving up, probably due to options settling-up. Once through $14 there was probably more settling-up as a lot of players didn't want to be snake bit twice. Once all this settling gets done the stock could move up again today.
I can't imagine why anyone would want to be buying INTC, but evidently someone still likes it? If there ever was a 14 foot flashing neon sign saying "SELL INTC" yesterdays announcement was it.
Through $14; bet Niceguy is breathing a sigh of relief. His direction is right, but his timing is usually terrible.
Ya, but $14 remains a real obstacle for some reason, probably related to options expiration, or some other game. $14 may fall next week, for good. Once all the options related stuff is over, and the analysts comments about INTC get a more general airing, there should be some switching out of INTC and into AMD. I suspect though that most will just be getting out of INTC. Still, it wouldn't take many of those funds coming AMD's way to get the stock going.
Looks like someone is pushing those that want to keep AMD below $14 very hard. I wonder how much of this is people switching out of INTC and into AMD? Today is probably a good time for someone with deep pockets to accumulate AMD, as it probably wont be any cheaper next week. That is unless the macro world comes apart.
One thing about being an INTC is that you are given an incredible number of "get out of jail free" cards. By my reckoning that pile is getting close to being exhausted, as INTC has gone into hyper speed, using them up at an accelerating rate lately.
What's INTC going to do this quarter without all the reporting gimmicks of q3. I've said it before; a corporation can do a lot of things to the financials in one quarter, but perpetuating those things gets ever more complicated as time goes on, something Enron found out. Eventually the smell is coming off the rose and my guess is this quarter will see the last of the attar.
INTC isn't going to self-destruct this quarter, but there are hair-line cracks showing up in the f16's turbines that will only get worse with time.
It was great, but the trouble is there's always a huge todo list waiting when you get home. Still haven't caught up yet.
It looks like I didn't miss much, things just keep getting better and better for AMD. Now if AMD could just start making some money. It does look like Hector went to the tortoise and hare school of earnings. What would it be like to have a Niceguy kind of quarter once again? Oh well, it's only money.
Anyway, this quarter should be an INTC ball buster. It's really going to be interesting watching how INTC dances while trying to maintain the facade of it's former greatness. My my, how the worm has turned.
From yahoo
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh87291_2004-10-14_23-08-46_n14...
FACTBOX-Chronology of Intel's delays and cancellations
Actually the list seems a little light. For awhile there it seemed like INTC was having a weekly posponement party.
As I remember it AMD always closes its books the weekend before the end of the quarter.