Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

I'm getting a little nervous about the speed, with which AMD has been tacking on gains lately, though I certainly think they are justified. I've been thinking about taking out some insurance in the form of an INTC short. Shorting isn't something I do with impunity for a variety of reasons, but this may be the rare time when it is appropriate.

Here are some of the things I'm thinking about:

1) I’m not cognizant of the ins and outs of program trading, but it sure looks like INTC has been drug along on the heels of AMD lately.
2) The NASD and SOXX have taken a big jump.
3) If AMD has the sort of quarter I think they will have it can only be bad for INTC if only in comparison.
4) AMD is very subject to the whims of the SOXX.
5) The markets remain very subject to macro events such as the election and price of oil.
6) INTC remains a crapola company, something that isn't likely to change in the foreseeable future.

So what it comes down to is that AMD will probably get a Niceguy quarter. INTC without any accounting gimmicks and a big LCOS write off will probably have at best a quarter slightly less profitable than q3. If either of those things happen INTC will probably take a drop and that's not considering the very real possibility of macro events that could affect both INTC and AMD.